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The recent economic meltdown in Nepal began after the outbreak of Covid-19. The Russia-Ukraine war has made it worse. Amid questionable claims about the economic recovery, the government has not been doing much to address this crisis even as both imports and exports decline, taking a toll on revenue collection. 

In the name of doing something, the government is taking huge loans to cover up the expenses, causing a surge in debt from both internal and external sources. 

Worryingly, most of this debt services the unproductive sector while the masses remain deprived of daily necessities as if rampant corruption at every level of polity were not enough. 

Due to declining demands, industrial production has suffered as overall negative growth of the business and industries sector shows. While some of the businesses and industries have been operating at a loss, most of them have shut down. The meltdown in the productive sector, which employs a large number of people, means a steep rise in unemployment. 

Loss of jobs reduces people’s incomes and purchasing power goes down with it. Consumers do not even have money to buy the daily necessities, which means a decline in the demand for consumer goods. 

Banks, grappling with a liquidity crisis, are unable to provide loans to business, manufacturing, real estate and auto sectors. Construction works are getting delayed. Government revenue collection is declining and not enough even to meet the regular expenditure.

Meanwhile, the cost of manufacturing goods is going up, possibly due to a rise in the cost of labor and raw materials. When the price of a commodity increases, its demand falls. At the time of falling demands, businesses and industries cannot sell their products by lowering their prices. If they do so, they have to bear huge losses. In a similar manner, a shortage of goods in the market can push their prices up. 

When consumers cut expenses, the revenue of business and manufacturing establishments dips, negatively affecting production and productivity. Such a scenario can cause inflation, which Nepal is facing already. While banks are raising interest rates, business establishments are not taking loans. This means that recession has set in.

The consumer price index (CPI) is rising with prices hitting a new high as latest data from the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) show. In the fiscal year 2021/22, , CPI stood at 6.32 percent, while it climbed to 7.74 percent in FY 2022/23. 

Data from the central bank suggest that both export and import have been declining over the years. The imports stood at Rs 19bn and Rs 16bn in FY 2021/22 and 2022/23 respectively, while the export figures in both the fiscals were almost the same. These declining figures also mean that the trade deficit has gone down. In the FY 2021/22, trade deficit was Rs 17bn it came down to Rs 14bn in FY 2022/23, narrowed down by Rs 3bn. 

A deficit balance of payment in FY 2021/22 by Rs 3bn has been turned into surplus by the same amount in FY 2022/23. Evidently, the foreign exchange reserve has increased from Rs 12bn in 2021/22 to Rs 15bn in 2022/23. Export and import are the major sources of government revenues. Plummeting government revenues can affect the government’s capacity to spend, taking a toll on development activities. This means a government has to take loans even to cover daily or monthly expenses.

Nepal is not self-reliant even in food production. It has to import on a large scale to feed its citizens. India has banned the export of paddy in recent days. The government is in a rush to request India to supply rice to Nepal even as millions of hectares of farmlands remain barren both in the hills and the Tarai Madhes, mainly due to the absence of irrigation facilities and a shortfall of human resources, among other factors. With farmlands lying fallow, the share of the farm sector to GDP has been declining over the years. Improvement in the agri sector is a must also for sustainable development.

Industrial activities are melting down. Agriculture activities are also on a downward trend and so are business activities. Clearly, the Nepali economy is unwell. 

 Which sector has been playing an active role even in this grim scenario to keep the economy afloat? 

There is only one sector, which has stood as a source of livelihoods for the Nepali people and that is the foreign employment sector. A large number of Nepali youths are migrating in search of livelihood of late. They are sending increasing amounts of money to their families living in Nepal. In FY 2021/22, Nepal received Rs 10.7bn in remittances, while in the FY 2022/23, it received a whopping Rs 12.2bn, an increase of 21.2 percent. This proves that remittance is a major source of foreign exchange and livelihood for the Nepali people.

“What goes best with a cup of coffee? Another cup”—Henry Rollins. It’s an open secret that coffee drinking today has become all the rage worldwide. Over 2.25bn cups of coffee get gulped down daily across the globe. In America alone, 87 percent are near or full-on coffee nuts. “There is nothing like a ‘cup of steaming joe’ the first thing in the morning,” says an American friend of mine. “A cup of joe,” meaning coffee, is a derivative from a fusion of two slangs: java and jamoke. 

Coffee, also noted for its exceptional aroma, is exhilarating to your olfactory senses. Suppose lighter roasts give a fruity, flowery, or herbaceous whiff, and medium-roasted coffee beans smack of caramelized, nutty, spicy, or chocolaty flavor. In that case, darker roasts boast that bold, smoky, earthy nuance.

During the 1600s, the Dutch introduced coffee to Southeast Asia by planting coffee seedlings in islands like Bali, Sumatra, and Java. Ultimately, java became a generic expression for coffee but no longer referred to coffee from the Island of Java.

Some novel facts about coffee you probably didn’t know:

• An Ethiopian Goat herder discovered coffee centuries ago.
• Bees love coffee.
• In 1938, a hermit, Hira Giri, brought coffee beans to Nepal from Myanmar and planted them for the first time in Nepal at Aapchaur in Gulmi.
• Kopi Luwak, one of the most expensive coffees in the world, was first discovered in Indonesia by farmers while picking coffee cherries off their trees. The farmers accidentally ran into the coffee fruits swallowed and excreted by the Asian Palm Civet. The farmers separated the beans from the cat poop, washed them well, and roasted them to sell at an exorbitant price—a cup of Kopi Luwak coffee costs between $35 and $100 today.
• The credit behind introducing coffee culture in Nepal goes to a Bhaktapur resident, Gagan Pradhan. The first outlet of Himalayan Java at Heritage Plaza, Kamaladi 1999, was his brainchild.

Some two decades back, coffee drinking in Kathmandu remained remote and looked like a privilege enjoyed by those in the know. Coffee drinking held an elite status, considered a cult amongst the elite. Today, Kathmandu and Nepal big cities are booming with coffee culture, revamping the urban lifestyle.

When the issue of coffee crops up, you are spoilt for choice with a horde of java blends the modern-day coffee joints serve, from espresso, mocha, cappuccino, latte, Americano, and a Frappuccino to mind-boggling flavor pairings, whether with ice-cream, choco-bits, rich cream, marshmallow, nuts, fruits, you name it. If the potpourri of toothsome flavors strikes you dumb, watching the barista knock up your blend with a flourish is nothing less than stimulating.  

On the flip side, nothing compares to the elegant simplicity of a regular black coffee when it boils down to its health benefits, as dressing your coffee with cream and sugar or the gamut of those fancier concoctions only poses a risk of negating the health benefits. 

Albeit an instant brew outstrips when it comes to cost and ease, the flavor and quality of freshly ground (Arabica) coffee beans stand second to none. There is, however, so much choice out there to ground coffee; each bean variety carries a unique zing. 

Coffee drinking has been, however, long the topic of debates and clashing feedback regarding its impact on health. And the primary reason for this controversy lies in its caffeine content. It's time to separate fact from fabrication and dig into this myth surrounding coffee consumption.  

From 1991 to early 2016, the WHO categorized coffee drinking as a potential carcinogen running a risk of cancer. That further fueled the fire and frustrating news for the java aficionados. But with the ensuing years, the science-backed and peer-reviewed studies came up with promising results for coffee drinking—more vital than ever and with salutary implications.

The newer studies highlighted that coffee, touted as a vehicle for caffeine detrimental to health, had a lot of sunny side. With time, for its potential health benefits, it breezed into a daily meal plan for most.  

In 2020, an article by Dawn MacKeen in the New York Times reported: “In moderation, coffee seems to be good for most people — that’s 3 to 5 cups daily, or up to 400 milligrams of caffeine.” With evident health benefits, the FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) also recommended 400 milligrams a day—four or five cups of coffee—as safe with no adverse effects.

Since coffee may slightly raise the heart rate, people may assume it could trigger or worsen specific heart issues, giving an unwarranted rap to coffee drinking. “But our data suggest that daily coffee intake shouldn’t be discouraged, but rather included as a part of a healthy diet for people with and without heart disease,” said Peter M. Kistler, MD, professor and head of arrhythmia research at the Alfred Hospital and Baker Heart Institute in Melbourne, Australia.  

"The overall evidence has been pretty convincing that coffee has been more healthful than harmful in terms of health outcomes," said Frank Hu, chairperson of the Department of Nutrition at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, in 2021.  

He further manifested that moderate coffee intake—about 2–5 cups a day—is linked to a lower likelihood of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, liver, endometrial cancers, Parkinson’s disease, and depression. It’s even possible that people who drink coffee can reduce their risk of early death. The updated findings even linked to a lower risk of coronary heart disease in coffee-drinking women.

With the higher incidence of colon cancer in men and women (1.3: 1 ratio), newer research has found that colorectal cancer is less likely to develop in coffee-drinking people. 

According to AHA (American Heart Association), “Just a couple of calories a cup, good old black coffee packs quite a punch. It wakes you up, boosts your metabolic rate and decreases the risk of some diseases.”

Let’s take a look at science-backed substantiation of coffee-drinking health benefits that seem to stack up: 

• For its caffeine content, coffee nurtures your energy level, supports you in losing weight, and hones your mental focus. Regular intake of coffee helps improve mood, endurance, and performance during workouts.
• Coffee came to be associated with a lessened risk of Type 2 diabetes and Parkinson’s disease. Another startling discovery surfaced that caffeine defended against or slowed down the process of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. (Source: British Heart Association)
• Meticulous scientific studies further complemented coffee for its antioxidant properties, which protect our cells against free radicals, guarding against heart disease, cancer, and other chronic conditions.
• Even higher consumption of coffee—caffeinated and decaf alike—may relate to low mortality. The regular intake of coffee worked wonders against the nervous system and helped discourage suicidal tendencies. 
• Coffee drinking (black with no sugar or sweeteners) promotes cognitive function, enhancing memory, attention, response time, and creativity. 
• Be it regular or decaf, coffee holds a protective guard for our liver. Advanced research and studies showed coffee drinkers were more likely to have liver enzyme levels at a healthy level than people who did not drink coffee. 

Caveat: To sum up, the goodness of coffee drinking unquestionably has busted a string of myths girding it. However, coffee lovers should also perceive caffeine as dangerous if consumed excessively. Inordinate caffeine input can lead to jitters, anxiety, and disintegrated sleep patterns.

So, temperance or moderation is vital to tuning coffee consumption into a healthy diet. Unless you are highly sensitive to caffeine, a few cups during the day should not affect your sleep pattern. However, avoiding coffee about six hours before bedtime is probably best. Always consult a healthcare professional for individualized advice and guidance.

While caffeine is not bad for senior adults, limiting coffee to no more than four cups a day is advisable. An excessive coffee intake stimulates the nervous system; it is likely to cause heartburn, anxiety, headaches, restlessness, dehydration, and elevated heart palpitations: Mayo Clinic.

Caffeine consumption is also linked with adverse effects on calcium metabolism, possibly causing diminishing calcium absorption in the body. Albeit, coffee drinking in moderation is of slight concern vis-a-vis bone degeneration, a natural biological phenomenon. 

However, coffee fads need to take calcium-rich food like dairy products, citrus fruits, fish, and nuts, to name a few, to negate the caffeine effect on our bones. (americanbonehealth.org)

Also, get yourself into a routine workout to pump those endorphins and strike a balance between your diet, including coffee, and a healthy lifestyle. 

References:  National Institutes of Health (NIH), American College of Cardiology, the Mayo Clinic, WebMD, John Hopkins Medicine, and others.

“The article is a testament to the author’s dedicated research on the potential benefits of coffee consumption, offering a wealth of valuable information that undoubtedly brings good news to coffee enthusiasts. It sheds light on a promising meta-analysis indicating a potential reduction in all-cause mortality, alluding to the positive aspects of coffee consumption. Nevertheless, it reminds us of the need for Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) to solidify these findings. This balanced and informative perspective allows us to appreciate the health-related possibilities associated with coffee, underlining the author’s commendable effort in exploring this topic.”—Dr Denis Shrestha, Senior Consultant Cardiologist, Critical Care Specialist

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the above text are solely research-based, not medical advice; the author solicits readers’ discretion and cross-references or consulting a healthcare provider for further confirmation. 

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On Oct 7, Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a resolute condemnation of the attack orchestrated by Hamas in Israel. 

“The Government of Nepal vehemently denounces the recent act of terrorism in Israel, which tragically resulted in the loss of precious human lives and left many others injured,” the statement read.

The attack claimed the lives of hundreds of people, including ten Nepali students, and left thousands wounded. Notably, subsequent statements from the ministry omitted the term ‘terrorist’, a move that has captured the attention of foreign policy experts and observers. This marks the first instance of Nepali nationals being casualties of a Hamas assault.

However, the ministry officials emphasize that there has been no shift in Nepal’s established policy regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict, which dates back to the 1960s. A senior foreign ministry official clarified, “Nepal’s stated policy remains one of condemning terrorist activities, and it does not support Hamas and its actions.” Experts concur, asserting that Nepal's stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict remains unaltered.

Formed in 1987 during the uprising against Israel’s presence in Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas has long been associated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Numerous countries, including the US, the UK, Canada, the European Union, and others, designate Hamas as a terrorist organization due to its history of activities such as suicide bombings, kidnappings, and civilian killings. China, however, does not recognize Hamas as a terrorist group.

Nepal regularly engages in discussions concerning Israel and Palestine at the United Nations, and frequently faces multiple proposals related to the issue. On humanitarian grounds, Nepal extends support to Palestine on certain matters, although it does not formally recognize Hamas, which has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007. The extreme position taken by Hamas is spoiling all the peace deal attempts. 

Nepal’s voting positions in the UN have, at times, displeased Israel. Notably, in 2021, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution disavowing Jewish ties to the Temple Mount, designating it solely by its Muslim name, al-Haram al-Sharif. While 64 countries, including India, did not support this resolution, Nepal backed it. This was a departure from Nepal’s previous neutral positions on similar votes in 2018, 2019, and 2020. 

Nepal supports the two-state solution, calling for the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip alongside Israel. However, Hamas rejects this proposal, complicating the matter, while major powers, including the US, China, Russia, and India, stand in favor of a two-state solution. 

During the 78th General Assembly of the United Nations, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal expressed Nepal's unwavering commitment to peace for the Palestinian people, urging an end to the prolonged conflict. Nepal reiterated its support for a two-state solution, envisioning Israel and Palestine coexisting peacefully within internationally recognized borders, aligned with relevant UN resolutions.

Nepal and Israel established diplomatic relations in 1960, with Israel opening its embassy in Kathmandu in March 1961, while Nepal established its embassy in Israel in 1993. Notably, Nepal’s recognition of Israel’s existence and continuous diplomatic relations with the nation set it apart in South Asia until recently.

The Foreign Ministry’s official documents affirm Nepal’s ongoing support for Israel’s right to exist within secure and internationally recognized boundaries. Nepal’s historical involvement in recognizing Israel as an independent state, including visits by prominent leaders, underscores the enduring nature of their diplomatic relations.

 The first democratically elected Prime Minister BP Koirala acknowledged Israel as an independent state at a time when the entire world was yet to do so. Koirala paid an official visit to Israel in 1960, and three years later, the then king, Mahendra Shah, had also paid an official visit to Israel.  

In contrast, Nepal does not maintain diplomatic relations with Palestine, although both nations are members of the Non-Aligned Movement.

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What Nepal said on Israel-Palestine situation

2023: The Palestinian people deserve peace ending the prolonged conflict. Nepal reiterates its support for a two-state solution with Israel and Palestine, living peacefully side by side, within recognized international borders based on the relevant UN resolutions.

2022: Protracted violence and conflicts continue to inflict pain and suffering on Palestinian and Israeli civilians. Nepal reiterates its long-standing view for a two-state solution, whereby Palestine and Israel live side by side in peace and security within the recognized international borders.

2021: In the Middle East, we reiterate our long-standing position and want to see peace and security with a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine living side by side within secure and recognized international borders. 

2020: We would like to see peace and stability in the Middle East with a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security with secure and recognized international borders based on relevant United Nations resolutions.

2019: We want to see meaningful steps being taken to resolve the protracted Middle East issue. We support a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security with secure and recognized international borders based on relevant United Nations resolutions.

2018: With this commitment we must ensure that the voice of the people struggling for their rights, liberty, freedom and justice in various parts of the world, including Syria, Yemen, Palestine, and many other places must be heard and addressed.

With a conflict intensifying between Israel and Hamas after the recent Hamas attack, the Middle East, which was gradually heading toward unity and harmony, is plunging into a war, once again. Regardless of its root cause, the hostilities in the region can have a spillover effect, which can polarize the world. A conflict like this can also become a breeding ground for fresh rebellions, terrorists and criminal gangs.

No rational human being can support terrorism anywhere in the world. Talks and negotiations are a must to bring back normalcy in the region and beyond for the greater good of humanity and human civilization. War is never a solution. War begets more war and results in a lose-lose outcome. There is no alternative to peace and harmony. Thus, the international community in general and the parties to this conflict in particular should reconsider the “Framework for Peace in the Middle East”.

The author is a geostrategic thinker