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As China assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council and the Presidents of China and the US meet in San Francisco on the sidelines of APEC summit this month, the two superpowers are expected to take serious steps to bring the conflicting parties— Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine— into negotiating table for tangible outcomes.

As compliant partners and rational competitors, the two giants should work for the greater good of society, humankind and the universe, keeping in mind that they will be able to retain their prime positions only through decent leadership, equable and nimble rationality, amity and cooperation. 

Globalization and a corresponding drive toward neoliberalism had a role in shaping the global political order in the past. At present, the intricacy of ‘techno-geopolitics’ and ‘techno-nationalism’ is making a sway in digital, economic, social and democratic order thereby impelling a new global order.

‘Democracy’ is said to be in decline in many parts of the world, while its global state is ‘complex’, ‘fluid’ and ‘unequal’ in 2023 (Global State of Democracy Initiative). Considered to be a process rather than a “system” or any form of institution, democracy can come to a halt when it encounters critical threats from any actor— be it human or machine.

 “The human being ranks higher than machines and technology”, reads Article 12, Section 1 of the 1947 Constitution of Bremen, an entity of the German federal state, perhaps foreseeing the prospective supremacy of machines (AI) over humans. 

An Open Letter titled “Pause Giant AI Experiments” originally signed by a 1000-plus tech, social and AI leaders around the world on March 22, 2023 has garnered more than 33700 signatures, including that of this author. 

It reads, “Contemporary AI systems are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks, and we must ask ourselves: Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk the loss of control over our civilization? Such decisions must not be delegated to unelected tech leaders. Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks manageable…” 

Unlawful development and deployment of generative AI has heightened risks of weaponization of AI technology to the detriment of humanity and human civilizations. The extensive misuse of AI has been posing a serious threat to democracy and humanity through ‘deep-fakes’ or ‘scams’.

After a Covid-19 pandemic that continues to haunt humanity, the world is witnessing two major threats—the “tech threat” that is challenging the sovereignty of nations, posing crucial threats to democracy and impinging on personal sovereign dignity of individuals; and the “religious radicalism” that could foment civilizational clashes and lead to disastrous consequences like ethnic cleansing. These two threats can sweep human civilization by wreaking havoc around the world.

Civilization clashes—be it Hindu-Muslim conflicts or the Manipur violence in India, Islam-Christian tensions around the world after 9/11, Black-White racial clashes in the US, the Rohingya sweeping in Myanmar, ethnic conflicts in Africa or Middle-East or ethnic clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh, the  diplomatic fiasco between India and Canada that is deep-rooted to religious radicalism or the recent Hamas attack in Israel and the Israeli counter-attack that are fuelling Muslim-Jews clashes—all reflect domination of religion over religion, culture over culture, human over human, nation over nation, and civilization over civilization. These developments could permeate beyond national boundaries and end up challenging the existing global social, civilizational or democratic order. 

Transnational issues such as terrorism, war, crimes, financial issues, climate change, economic stability, energy and food security, intellectual property rights, cybersecurity, nuclear and AI threats, maritime security, poverty and pandemics are also causing chaos worldwide.  

The author is a geopolitical analyst. This article is part 2 of a three-part series

Children comprise more than half of the human casualties in the 6.4 magnitude quake that struck Jagarkot and Rukum West last Friday, police data show, putting the number of children succumbing to the disaster at over 80. 

The disaster has rendered about 10000 people shelterless, said government officials, while initial estimates put the number of school buildings destroyed in the quake at 300.

 Heather Campbell, Country Director for Save the Children in Nepal, said, “Children are scared. Many have lost relatives; thousands have lost their homes. The constant aftershocks and terror of another quake means they have been forced into the open. With temperatures dropping, they need shelter, warmth and nutritious food.   

 “We are worried that the longer the children live outside, the greater the chances of contracting pneumonia. They are also at risk of contracting waterborne diseases, as safe drinking water is scarce. There is an urgent need for toilets and washing facilities,” Campbell said. 

“Children are vulnerable and need spaces where they are safe and can continue to learn. We need to ensure their safety and protection as disasters like this can lead to severe mental distress. Recovery from the trauma of losing loved ones and homes will not be a quick process. They need stability.”  

 14 schools destroyed in Bheri 

In Bheri municipality, the jolt has destroyed 14 school buildings, whereas 78 school buildings have suffered damage, the municipality’s data show. The tremor has killed 11 students and three teachers in the municipality, while 31 students have sustained injuries. 

Forty-seven classrooms, nine toilets and four compound walls have turned into rubble in the quake, whereas 122 school buildings, 476 classrooms, 38 toilets, nine fences, one science lab, nine ICT labs and two solar systems have suffered damage.

In Rukum West, the quake has claimed 14 students, destroyed 15 school buildings and caused damage to 20 schools. 

President reaching out

President Ramchandra Paudel on Tuesday reached out to the survivors of the quake and assured them of all possible help from the state in rebuilding their lives. He visited Sitali Kami of Bheri municipality-1, who is undergoing treatment at Jajarkot district hospital for injuries sustained in the quake. 

He assured Sitali that the state would provide assistance for the reconstruction of her house damaged in the quake. Paudel also stressed that the survivors need temporary shelters. 

While interacting with the survivors at Thaple of Bheri-3 after visiting the spot where Nalagadh municipality’s deputy mayor Sarita Singh had lost her life in a house collapse, President Paudel pledged that the government will expedite reconstruction works and address other concerns of the survivors in a gradual manner. 

No relief for survivors 

Five days into the quake, government agencies have still not been able to provide for most of the survivors facing a grim winter with almost all of their possessions lost, as if bereavement were not enough. Local levels have not been able to provide blankets and bedding in required numbers to people like Ganesh Thapa of Bheri-3, who said he has not yet received warm clothing. 

Relief materials have not yet reached most of the remote places outside the district headquarters, with representatives of various organizations distributing these materials in the villages as per their convenience instead of giving due priority to the most affected ones. 

Local communities do not know how to remain safe even as frequent aftershocks have been occurring here.

Meanwhile, relief materials reached Barekot rural municipality on Monday, two days after the earthquake. Chair of the municipality Chair Bir Bahadur Giri said,  “As people in the rural municipality have been living out in the open, protecting them from cold is a major challenge.”

NC, CPN (US) donate to relief fund

Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN (Unified Socialist) have made contributions to the Prime Minister’s Disaster Relief Fund.

A delegation of NC office-bearers, including President Sher Bahadur Deuba, visited Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal at the PM’s official residence in Baluwatar to hand over a cheque bearing Rs 5m, meant for the survivors of the quake. A delegation under CPN(Unified Socialist) Chair and former PM, Madhav Kumar Nepal, presented a cheque bearing Rs 2.5m to PM Dahal.  

CPN(US) also submitted a nine-point proposal to the government regarding post-earthquake relief, rescue and rehabilitation efforts. The party lauded government measures in response to the earthquake, particularly the search and rescue operations, recommending that the federal government oversee and facilitate the implementation of a one-door policy for rescue and rehabilitation efforts by ensuring the leading roles of provinces and local governments toward that end. 

During the meeting, PM Dahal assured that the best practices in post-disaster management will be followed. He said, “With the search and rescue operations completed, the focus has now shifted to the second-phase response, including relief and rehabilitation.”

Dahal said he held separate meetings with the ambassadors from the neighboring countries regarding disaster relief. 

The meetings with the ambassadors focused on the management of storage facilities at the local level and development of integrated settlements based on geographical features of the affected areas. 

The United Nations has said that around 1.3m people might have been exposed, and about 0.25m may need humanitarian assistance within 72 hours of the earthquake. 

Days after 153 people were killed and several hundred injured, another strong earthquake with 5.6 magnitude struck  on Nov 6. On Nov 3, a 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck in the Jajarkot and Rukum Districts of Karnali Province, causing widespread damage.

With the completion of the government’s search and rescue operation, the number of deaths stands at 153 (Male: 70, Female: 83) and 338 (Male: 138, Female: 200) injured. The initial findings of the Government’s Initial Rapid Assessment (IRA) launched on Nov 5 say over 4,000 homes were damaged in the hardest hit districts, UN said in a press statement.

Following the initial assessment of the remote damage assessment of available secondary data satellite images USGS data and earthquake risk model, around 1.3m people might have been exposed and about 0.25m people may need humanitarian assistance within 72 hours of the earthquake, the UN said in a press statement. 

In response to the earthquake—the largest to impact Nepal since the 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015—United Nations agencies have been providing temporary shelter, food, and non-food items as part of a comprehensive and urgent response to the pressing needs of the affected communities.

UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator, Hanaa Singer-Hamdy said, “The government has immediately responded very effectively with search and rescue operations. Despite geographical remoteness and a difficult operating environment.

The UN agencies and humanitarian partners are on the ground supporting the government’s efforts by reaching out to around 3000 households with food, shelter, WASH, protection, and health support. More than 382 aftershocks were reported forcing people to spend nights in the open or makeshift shelters in freezing overnight temperatures.  “The impact of this latest earthquake is compounding the difficulties and vulnerabilities of communities with low socio-economic indicators and stretched coping mechanisms.”

Nepal ranks among the top countries prone to natural disasters. As it sits right above the tectonic plates, occurrence of frequent earthquakes is not unusual. In times of disasters, the main priority is to conduct search and rescue operations to save lives and to provide relief. Those who reach the scenes to rescue people and provide first aid are the first responders. Who should they be? Security forces, community people, humanitarian organizations, volunteers?

There is always a debate about whether or not to reduce the size of the Nepal Army, who usually are amongst the first responders. While some argue that Nepal does not face active war so the size could be reduced for economic reasons, others say they are needed so that they can be deployed in times of emergencies. Friday night's earthquake sent a fresh alert that Nepal has reasons to strengthen its disaster risk reduction efforts.

Humanitarian organizations, most commonly known as I/NGOs, are often seen as dollar-making agencies but in times of crises, they are among the first ones to provide temporary shelter arrangements, items required to manage daily life and food items. They are able to do so as they keep stock of these items to be used in times of disaster. Yet, the perception of them is limited to the understanding of organizations that provide 'software' programs such as awareness on hand-washing, which in itself is a huge need nevertheless, and some people realized the importance during Covid-19.

When the 2015 earthquake hit Nepal, people finally realized that certain organizations that had been raising awareness on what to do in an event of earthquake were not irrelevant and that they were crucial in times of disasters. In one of my field trips to Tatopani of Sindhupalchowk, which was among the worst affected districts by the mega earthquake, I met an elderly single woman whose house was on a steep hill top, far from other houses. She told me that she received relief first distributed by humanitarian organizations. It was a hard-to-reach hill and the woman's house was the sole house on the top. For me, it was an actual example of a catch line used by development organizations—leaving no one behind!

I also recall the safe bathing spaces built specially for women to avoid being harassed or shamed. There were special packages for women too, called the dignity kits consisting of pads and other items required for menstruating women. One can imagine an aftermath of the disaster where people are living in a temporary shelter having such items can provide relief. I also saw how inflatable water storages provided easy access to water in hilly areas.

However, these organizations are expected by the government to mostly provide hardware support such as building  roads and other structures. Raising awareness, sensitizing people, or empowering people do not seem to be convincing to them. People who lose family members and houses might as well lose means of income. Those people need support to help them reach their pre-disaster economic levels. Thus knowledge on financial literacy, challenging gender norms and stereotypes, raising voice for oneself, diversification of livelihoods are vital.

I firmly believe that in a country like Nepal that still faces multiple challenges and vulnerabilities related to natural disasters, climate change, poverty, gender-based violence, superstitions, and inequalities, the presence of humanitarian and development agencies should be appreciated. Additionally, these organizations provide jobs to Nepali and pay tax to the government and contribute to the economy.