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Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation, WTO economists said in a new forecast on April 10. The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling 1.2 percent in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast. 

In the latest ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’ report, WTO economists note that inflationary pressures are expected to abate this year, allowing real incomes to grow again—particularly in advanced economies—thus providing a boost to the consumption of manufactured goods. A recovery of demand for tradable goods in 2024 is already evident, with indices of new export orders pointing to improving conditions for trade at the start of the year.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “We are making progress towards global trade recovery, thanks to resilient supply chains and a solid multilateral trading framework—which are vital for improving livelihoods and welfare. It’s imperative that we mitigate risks like geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation to maintain economic growth and stability.”

High energy prices and inflation continued to weigh heavily on demand for manufactured goods, resulting in a 1.2 percent decline in world merchandise trade volume for 2023. The decline was larger in value terms, with merchandise exports down five percent to $24.01trn. Trade developments on the services side were more upbeat, with commercial services exports up nine percent to $7.54trn, partly offsetting the decline in goods trade. 

Import volumes were down in most regions but especially in Europe, where they fell sharply. The main exceptions were large fuel-exporting economies, whose imports were sustained by strong export revenues as energy prices remained high by historical standards. World trade remained well above its pre-pandemic level throughout 2023. By the fourth quarter it was nearly unchanged compared to the same period in 2022 (+0.1 percent) and had only risen slightly compared to the same period in 2021 (+0.5 percent).

The report further estimates global GDP growth at market exchange rates will remain mostly stable over the next two years at 2.6 percent in 2024 and 2.7 percent in 2025, after slowing to 2.7 percent in 2023 from 3.1 percent in 2022. The contrast between the steady growth of real GDP and the slowdown in real merchandise trade volume is linked to inflationary pressures, which had a downward effect on consumption of trade-intensive goods, particularly in Europe and North America. 

Downside risks

Moving forward, the report warns that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty could limit the extent of the trade rebound. Food and energy prices could again be subject to price spikes linked to geopolitical events. The report’s special analytical section on the Red Sea crisis notes that while the economic impact of the Suez Canal disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict has so far been relatively limited, some sectors, such as automotive products, fertilizers and retail, have already been affected by delays and freight costs hikes. 

The report furthermore presents new data indicating that geopolitical tensions have affected trade patterns marginally but have not triggered a sustained trend toward de-globalization. Bilateral trade between the United States and China, which reached a record high in 2022, grew 30 percent less in 2023 than did their trade with the rest of the world. Moreover, for the whole of 2023, global trade in non-fuel intermediate goods—which provides a useful gauge of the status of global value chains—was down six percent. 

Signs of fragmentation may also be emerging in services trade: US imports of information, computer, and telecommunications (ICT) services from North American trading partners (mostly Canada) increased from 15.7 percent of total ICT imports in 2018 to 23.0 percent in 2023 while US imports of the same from Asian trading partners (mostly India) fell from 45.1 percent to 32.6 percent. Fragmentation of data flow policies along geopolitical lines, moreover, could cause global trade of goods and services in real terms to fall by 1.8 percent and global GDP to decline by one percent according to estimates from a forthcoming study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the WTO.

WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa said: “Some governments have become more skeptical about the benefits of trade and have taken steps aimed at re-shoring production and shifting trade towards friendly nations. The resilience of trade is also being tested by disruptions on two of the world's main shipping routes: the Panama Canal, which is affected by freshwater shortages, and the diversion of traffic away from the Red Sea. Under these conditions of sustained disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty, risks to the trade outlook are tilted to the downside.”

Regional trade outlook

If current projections hold, Africa’s exports will grow faster than those of any other region in 2024, up 5.3 percent; this however is from a low base, since the continent's exports remained depressed after the Covid-19 pandemic. The CIS the region’s expected growth is just slightly below 5.3 percent, also from a reduced base after the region's exports plunged following the war in Ukraine. North America (3.6 percent), the Middle East (3.5 percent) and Asia (3.4 percent) should all see moderate export growth, while South America is expected to grow more slowly, at 2.6 percent. European exports are once again expected to lag behind those of other regions, with growth of just 1.7 percent.

Strong import volume growth of 5.6 percent in Asia and 4.4 percent in Africa should help prop up global demand for traded goods this year. However, all other regions are expected to see below average import growth, including South America (2.7 percent), the Middle East (1.2 percent), North America (1.0 percent), Europe (0.1 percent) and the CIS region (-3.8 percent).

Merchandise exports of least-developed countries (LDCs) are forecasted to grow 2.7 percent in 2024, down from 4.1 percent in 2023, before growth accelerates to 4.2 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, imports by LDCs should grow 6.0 percent this year and 6.8 percent next year following a 3.5 percentcontraction 

Trade in services

World commercial services trade grew nine percent in 2023 despite a decline in freight transport, thanks to recovering international travel and surging digitally delivered services. In 2024, sports events to be held in Europe in the summer, as well as the easing of visa requirements by various countries, are expected to boost tourism and passenger transport.

Global exports of digitally delivered services soared to $4.25trn in 2023, up nine percent year-on-year, and accounted for 13.8 percent of world exports of goods and services. In 2023, the value of these services—traded over borders through computer networks and encompassing everything from professional and management services to streaming of music and videos, online gaming, and remote education—surpassed pre-pandemic levels by over 50 percent. In Europe and Asia, which hold a global market share of 52.4 percent and 23.8 percent respectively, exports rose by 11 percent and 9 percent. Growth accelerated in Africa (13 percent) and in South and Central America and the Caribbean (11 percent), exceeding the global average. The two regions, which formed only 0.9 percent and 1.6 percent of global exports in 2023, are on the path to take advantage of digitally delivered services trade.

The WTO has released a new dataset on trade in services by mode of supply as in the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). It provides valuable insights on how services trade has modified over the years, including the impact of digitalization and of the Covid-19 pandemic.

 This dataset as well as the latest estimates on digitally delivered services trade and service trade in general can be visualized and downloaded in the Global Services Trade Data Hub. The newly launched Global Services Trade Data Hub gives access to comprehensive WTO services trade data. It provides visualizations and customizable features catering to the diverse needs of trade negotiators, analysts, researchers, and decision-makers, to derive insights.

Dr Chakra Raj Pandey is a co-founder and the Chief of Orthopedics and Traumatology at Anamiwa Health. He is highly sought after for his expertise in complex trauma, arthroscopy, joint replacement, sports medicine, and pediatric orthopedics. Dr Pandey was among the founding directors and served as the first medical director of Grande Hospital until 2021.

Born in Melamchi to farming parents, Dr Chakra Raj Pandey had the opportunity to attend school in Kathmandu. He studied at Laboratory School, supported by scholarships for several years, while residing with his uncle. Ranking 6th in the SLC examinations of 1980 showcased his academic prowess. “During those days, our sole focus was on excelling academically,” recalls Pandey of his school years. 

Despite enjoying football and dancing, his dedication to academic excellence remained unwavering.

Asked about his interest in science and later medicine, Pandey reflects on a pivotal moment from his youth: aiding an injured elderly woman struck by a bus when he was a ninth grader. Despite lacking technical knowledge, his innate desire to assist those in need ignited a passion for healthcare. 

Immersing himself in biographies of notable figures such as Albert Schweitzer, Madame Curie, Florence Nightingale, Joseph Lister, and Alexander Fleming further fueled his ambition. Driven by a multitude of experiences, Pandey was determined to pursue medicine, devoting himself wholeheartedly to his studies.

Recalling the catalyst for his journey into orthopedic medicine, Dr Pandey reminisces about witnessing the groundbreaking work of William DeVries in 1982, who implanted the world’s first permanent artificial heart. Initially drawn to vascular surgery or cardiology, Pandey’s trajectory shifted after sustaining a knee injury during a football match in 1987, which introduced him to the field of Orthopedics. Despite the challenges posed by the injury and subsequent surgery, his determination only strengthened, propelling him towards his chosen path.

During his undergraduate studies, Pandey’s personal experience with knee surgery influenced his decision to pursue orthopedic surgery. With the support of his teacher, he embarked on a journey that ultimately led to his specialization in Orthopedic Surgery. His unwavering commitment to his craft is exemplified by his relentless pursuit of excellence during his postgraduate residency in Turkey, where he exceeded expectations through sheer dedication and hard work.

Dr Pandey’s vision for Anamiwa Health, which he co-founded with his wife Sapana Pandey, emphasizes the importance of patient care and a proficient, cohesive team across all facets of the institution. Committed to upholding healthcare values, Pandey ensures that his team at Anamiwa strives for excellence in patient treatment and fosters a culture of continuous improvement.

Anamiwa Health complements Nepal’s healthcare system with its specialized focus on joints, arthroscopy, sports medicine, joint replacement, complex orthopedic trauma, and revision surgeries. Dr Pandey’s 33 years of active practice exemplifies his dedication to providing optimal orthopedic care, considering socio-economic and psychological factors alongside medical treatment.

Located between China and India, Nepal ranks 108th out of 180 countries in the Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index (CPI), a very unenviable position compared to neighbors like Bhutan (26th), the Maldives (93rd) and India (93rd). What offers us a little bit of solace is a relatively better position than other neighbors, namely Sri Lanka (115th), Pakistan (133rd), Bangladesh (149th) and Afghanistan (162nd).

In my reading, a lack of transparency and open-access data policy is mainly to blame for a poor showing vis-a-vis CPI on the part of Nepal, which in 2015 became a federal secular democratic republic, a political order that is supposed to have democracy, transparency, and access to information at its core. 

Access to information is vital for a smooth operation of this political order because it helps not only to improve public service delivery but also increases public trust in government bodies. 

That is why the Constitution of Nepal has upheld the right to information (RTI), with Article 27 of the Charter declaring RTI as a fundamental right of every citizen of Nepal. 

With the aim of guaranteeing RTI, the government introduced the Right to Information Act 2007, set up a National Information Commission (NIC) in 2008, regarded as a very important step in promoting transparency and corruption in Nepal, and introduced some supporting rules in 2009. Section 4 of the Act has provisioned respect for and protection of the citizens’ right to information through classification and updation of information and dissemination of the same to the public, envisioning citizens’ ‘simple and easy’ access to information. Whereas Section 5 has a provision “to keep the information updated for at least 20 years.” 

Per the Act, both government and non-government entities must update information every three months and disclose the information even when the public does not seek it. 

Despite the open open-access data policy, none of the governmental entities (including the ministries), barring a few exceptions, have duly followed the RTI Act and other relevant rules. 

It is common for government officials to cover up corruption and malfeasance by hiding crucial information, including details of public officials' property, revenue losses, tax evasion and reports on suspicious financial transactions. 

Most of the government entities have appointed an information officer each for dissemination of information of public importance. But most of them are not very cooperative when it comes to providing data and dilly-dallying is quite common among them. 

This tendency to deny RTI is mainly due to 1) a culture of secrecy within government bodies, 2) lax implementation of RTI Act and its rules, and 3) no strict punishment for offices and personnel tasked with categorizing data and publishing them. 

It gives rise to some important questions: Are these entities functioning as per relevant rules and regulations? If  the officers have performed their tasks accordingly, then why are they hesitating to share data with the public?  

Does this unwillingness to share data reflect the concerned personnel’s vested interests? 

Whatever the reason behind this, correction measures should be taken and data made available to the people. In the absence of an open-access data policy and data-sharing mechanisms, it is impossible to verify whether the concerned personnel are discharging their duties in accordance with relevant laws or not. 

Following interventions are necessary to ensure the public’s easy access to data in Nepal: 

• Strict implementation of RTI Act 2007 and its Rules 2009 
• Implementation of new concepts in governance such as New Public Services and New Public Governance
• Activities aimed at raising awareness among the public to seek data from both government and non-government entities 
• Promotion of the culture of information dissemination and transparency through disruption of the culture of secrecy 
• Comprehensive research on identifying the impediments to open-access data-sharing systems, ways to remove the hurdles and implement the identified correction measures 

 The author, a veterinary officer at the Department of Livestock Services, is a graduate of the University of Cambridge

Have you heard about turmeric latte? If not, it’s a milk drink with turmeric powder, ground cinnamon, honey, or maple syrup that reduces inflammation, aids digestion, and lowers cholesterol levels. Essentially, it’s a slightly tweaked version of ‘besar dudh’, providing similar benefits.

Another popular product these days is Carecumin, a liquid turmeric supplement with fruit flavor. It claims to lead to significant reductions in aches and pains, boost immunity, and improve gut health.

These are modern marketing gimmicks to sell the knowledge of our forefathers on turmeric.

Now, let’s embark on a journey to explore the fascinating world of turmeric, tracing its roots back to ancient times and following its path to kitchens around the globe.

Turmeric’s tale begins in South Asia, particularly in Nepal and India. For thousands of years, turmeric wasn’t just a flavor enhancer, it was a revered medicinal herb. People used its vibrant yellow powder to soothe aches and pains, fight infections, and add a touch of sunshine to their dishes.

But how did this golden goodness travel the world? It all comes down to the ancient spice routes. Imagine bustling marketplaces filled with exotic treasures. Traders carried turmeric along these routes, introducing it to new cultures and palates. From Arabia to China, Africa to Europe, turmeric’s unique flavor and medicinal properties spread like wildfire.

You might wonder why turmeric isn’t a star player in Chinese cuisine. While some Chinese dishes do incorporate turmeric, other spices like ginger and Sichuan peppercorns tend to dominate. This difference reflects the diverse flavor profiles that have developed in different regions around the world. Just like how some countries love the heat of chili peppers, others might prefer the earthy tones of turmeric.

Now, let’s get to the heart of the matter: Why is Nepali turmeric so special? Food enthusiasts swear by its quality. Grown in the fertile foothills of the Himalayas, Nepali turmeric boasts an intense aroma, earthy flavor, and higher content of curcumin. Curcumin is the golden hero within turmeric, packed with potential health benefits.

This exceptional quality comes at a premium. Nepali farmers use sustainable methods, nurturing their crops without harsh chemicals. This translates into a higher price for exporters, but it also means a more rewarding experience for those seeking the finest turmeric on the market.

So, what makes Nepali turmeric so expensive?

First is the high altitude at which it’s cultivated. The crisp mountain air and well-drained Himalayan soil create ideal growing conditions for turmeric, contributing to its intense aroma and flavor. Then there’s the case of sustainable practices. Nepali farmers often rely on traditional methods, avoiding chemical fertilizers and pesticides. This eco-friendly approach ensures a purer product but requires more labor, impacting the cost.

As we delve into the world of turmeric, let’s not forget its intriguing cousin, white turmeric, also known as Curcuma aromatica or mango ginger. Primarily grown in the monsoon regions of Nepal’s Himalayas, white turmeric offers a unique twist on the golden spice.

While both yellow and white turmeric share curcumin as a key component, white turmeric boasts a higher concentration of other beneficial compounds, including vitamin A, protein, fatty acids, and minerals. This unique profile translates to potential health benefits similar to yellow turmeric, with a focus on skincare and throat infections.

Traditionally used in Ayurvedic medicine, white turmeric is believed to help brighten and lighten the skin. Its anti-inflammatory and antibiotic properties might aid in easing throat infections and congestion.

Unlike its yellow counterpart, white turmeric has a milder, more citrusy aroma and flavor, making it versatile for various culinary uses. It can be consumed raw, dried and powdered, or even enjoyed in tea form.

While research on white turmeric is ongoing, its potential health benefits and unique flavor profile make it an exciting addition to the turmeric family.

Interestingly, the limited availability of white turmeric due to its specific growing conditions also contributes to its value. This, along with its potential health benefits, positions white turmeric as a niche but promising player in the world of spices.

Let’s talk about the promising potential of turmeric in managing inflammation, a key player in various conditions. Studies suggest turmeric may help alleviate symptoms of arthritis, and inflammatory bowel disease, and even ease muscle soreness after exercise.

Furthermore, early research indicates turmeric’s potential role in boosting the immune system, potentially aiding in defense against common colds and flu. Additionally, some studies explore its possible involvement in weight management and even cancer prevention.

Unlike some other turmeric-growing regions, Nepal has a smaller production capacity, leading to higher prices due to limited supply and high demand.

Beyond these factors, the future of Nepali turmeric looks bright. As people become more aware of ingredient quality and origin, the demand for authentic Nepali turmeric is likely to rise. This can empower Nepali farmers and contribute to preserving their valuable agricultural heritage.

Turmeric’s journey is a testament to the power of taste and tradition. From its South Asian roots to its global presence, this golden spice continues to add vibrancy and potential health benefits to dishes around the world. So, the next time you savor a curry or sprinkle turmeric on your veggies, remember the long and fascinating journey this wonder spice has taken.

The author is a UK-based R&D chef