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The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, the first and second largest parties in Parliament, have agreed to form a national unity government. This coalition aims to amend the constitution adopted in 2015. 

According to the agreement, UML chair KP Sharma Oli will lead the government initially to push for constitutional amendments and then hand over power to NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba to conduct the 2027 elections. Cross-party leaders acknowledge that amending key provisions of the constitution will be challenging. The NC-UML alliance anticipates strong opposition from the CPN (Maoist Center), Madhes-based parties, and other groups that support federalism, secularism, and identity-based federalism.

The new alliance needs to muster a two-thirds majority in Parliament for any constitutional amendment which seems feasible. The tentative agreement between NC and UML includes changes to the current electoral system, which many believe is one of the main causes of political instability and frequent government changes.

The two parties are of the view that the current mixed system of first-past-the-post and proportional representation makes it difficult to achieve a single-party majority. While leaders of the two major parties say that frequent coalition changes since the 2022 election highlight this issue, the electoral system is not solely to blame for instability. The new government also plans to remove the provision of secularism from the constitution, leaving the space blank. Additionally, NC and UML have agreed to revisit the current three-tier federal structure, considering it a significant burden onto the state. 

Despite their push for a national unity government, it is unlikely to materialize fully, as the Maoist party and the Rastriya Swatantra Party have decided not to join the future Oli-led government. However, the NC-UML coalition expects to achieve two-thirds support in Parliament with the help of fringe parties. NC and UML are reaching out to fringe parties in order to increase the strength of the government. 

It remains to be seen whether the fringe parties would wholly buy into the propositions put forward by NC and UML. Former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal’s party, CPN (Unified Socialist), criticized the latest coalition, likening it to tyranny. 

Notably, the leadership of both NC and UML have not yet held intra-party consultations about the content of the constitutional amendments. Shankar Pokharel, UML general secretary of the NC-UML coalition, emphasized their primary agenda is constitutional amendment and called on all parties to join the national unity government.

The CPN (Maoist Center) has expressed strong opposition to changing the electoral system, viewing it as a regressive step. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, however, views the agreement between NC and UML positively, believing that the current constitution cannot address the country’s problems.

Background of NC-UML coalition 

In 2015, during the constitution-making process, NC and UML formed a coalition government that successfully delivered the constitution. Initially, NC was supposed to support UML for the coalition government, but it backtracked on its commitment, straining the relationship between the two parties. This tension peaked when UML chair Oli dissolved Parliament in 2020.

Over the past two years, NC leader Deuba was reluctant to engage with Oli, fearing it might affect NC’s relationship with the Maoist Center. When the Maoists sided with UML in March, NC leaders including Shekhar Koirala began reaching out to UML, but results were slow. There were voices within both parties advocating for a coalition to ensure government stability, though some were against it due to the competitive nature of the parties and concerns about weakening the opposition.

At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Rabi Lamichhane was digging the files of some NC leaders accused in various corruption cases. Lately, with the surfacing of various corruption scandals, it was natural for the ranks of NC-UML to be fearful. As more scandals like the Giribandhu Tea Estate began to unravel, the situation became increasingly uncertain. Lamichhane had told Parliament on Monday that preparations were underway to form a powerful commission to investigate 25 corruption scandals.

Talks between NC and UML progressed three months ago  through a facilitator when Oli was in Jhapa for a week-long visit.  But the contents of the meetings were kept highly secret. On Saturday, Deuba and Oli held a candid and open discussion at Balkot, Oli’s residence. On Monday night, two top leaders signed in a document of agreement which remains top secret. Before the Balkot meeting, two secret meetings happened in Kathmandu. 

Despite initial distrust, several rounds of talks led Oli and Deuba to agree that the country faced a crisis due to constitutional flaws and the Dahal government’s mishandling of the situation. Oli was particularly frustrated with the Dahal-led government’s monopoly on decision-making, especially regarding the budget. As a result, UML withdrew its support from the government, requiring the prime minister to take a vote of confidence within 30 days. The formation of a new Oli-led government now depends on Prime Minister Dahal’s actions. Actually, Oli was in favor of keeping the agreement in secret with a plan to complete the entire process within a month but it was leaked in the media, that is why there was slow progress on Tuesday. 

Was Dahal kept in the dark?

Increased meetings between Oli and Dahal had raised concerns in Baluwatar. The prime minister was briefed by the Home Minister about these informal meetings. 

A recent meeting in Balkot prompted Prime Minister Dahal to invite Oli for talks, where Dahal asked Oli if he was forming a government with NC. Oli dismissed the reports, focusing on left unity until the general elections. However, after NC and UML agreed to form a new government, Dahal invited Oli again, urging transparency about the agreement with NC. 

Let’s briefly talk about the coalition of politics mainly after 2022. In the 2022 national elections, Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) emerged as the third-largest party with 32 seats. Despite an initial proposal from UML to form a coalition government, NC claimed the leadership and did not support the Maoists, despite an electoral alliance. 

Eventually, UML supported Dahal for the premiership, but he switched alliances multiple times between NC and UML. Dahal believed he could remain in power by playing between the first and second largest parties and was confident that external forces would not allow Oli to become prime minister.

Meanwhile, the leaders of both major parties were tired of the ‘opportunism’ and ‘turncoat’ character shown by Dahal, the third power in the parliament. Lately, Prime Minister Dahal had even started publicly speaking about the ‘magic number’. He began expressing the sentiment that he could remain prime minister for the entire five years by playing between UML and Congress.

Dahal’s expressions certainly unsettled Oli, eager to climb the chair of power, and Deuba, who wanted to become prime minister once again, sooner or later. Dahal’s statements violated the ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ of rotation with Oli. Oli had not taken Dahal from the alliance with NC to let him be prime minister alone for five years.

Had he understood the situation, Dahal could have found it easier to ally with NC. Even in an alliance with NC, Dahal would have had to give up the prime minister’s position to Deuba after two and a half years. Possibly, Dahal chose the difficult and survival path post-election? However, even after collaborating with UML, the ongoing dialogue with NC did not create an environment of trust. Meanwhile, Dahal also signaled a change in strategy. He began demanding that Oli allow him to run the entire period with the condition of unifying the party until the next election and stepping down from active politics to become the president. Oli clearly did not like this proposal.

In a political environment where betrayal has become a competition, Oli took the initiative this time. He went to Baluwatar, whispered sweet assurances in Dahal’s ear, and gave form to the new relationship. Dahal’s practice of betrayal with the magical number has become a strong fear of turning into a political culture, of which today’s players of the betrayal game could also become victims someday.

Future course

It seems likely that Oli will become prime minister. Dahal might attempt to break the agreement by offering the prime ministership position to Deuba, but this is unlikely to succeed. The constitutional amendment process will be challenging, potentially unleashing tensions. It remains to be seen how NC and UML will convince all stakeholders to support the amendments.

The UML has requested Prime Minister Dahal to resign by Wednesday. A leader revealed that the UML Secretariat meeting on Tuesday decided to ask Prime Minister Dahal to step down. 

This would pave the way for the formation of a new government under Article 76 (2) of the Constitution, according to the agreement between the UML and the Congress.

The UML has also invited other parties to join in forming a national consensus government led by Oli. According to sources, some parties including CPN (Maoist Center) could suffer a split in the run-up to the constitution amendment process.

The season of the proverbial ‘khaam’ (envelope) is back. The arrival of the wedding season means many of us will be dishing out a few of those. Granted, a few banknotes shoved in an envelope is practical. It’s also time-efficient and hassle free. But it can also come across as tactless and mundane, especially if someone close to you is getting hitched. We’ve rounded up some ideas that are a lot more thoughtful than cold, hard cash to help you deal with the awkwardness of giving money.

Consider a voucher instead of cash

Depending on your budget, you can buy a couple round trip tickets to Pokhara or Chitwan. Alternatively, a voucher for a spa day can also be a good idea, as are gift cards for maybe their favorite bookstore or clothing line. Tickets and vouchers are essentially cash but it will show the receiver that you put some thought and effort into it. Many stores these days offer gift cards for fixed amounts. All you have to do is buy one of these.

Make them something

If you are good at painting, knitting, or any other craft, consider making something for the newly-wed couple. If you are good at macrame, an evil-eye wall hanging could be a nice idea. You can also commission an artist to make a painting of the couple during their wedding day and gift it to them if you aren’t good with a paintbrush. Personalized gifts will bring a smile to their face long after their special day is over.

A digital magazine subscription

With more and more online portals going behind paywalls, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to access good content online. A newspaper or magazine subscription for a year or two could make an ideal gift for those who value information and knowledge. The New York Times subscription costs $10 and is value for money as you will have full access to many good articles and podcasts. A Netflix or Spotify account will be appreciated by those who love movies and music.

Ask them what they want

In the US and many other places, couples about to get married make an online wedding registry of the things they want. Guests can then pick from the list and give them something they would need in the course of their life together. We don’t have that system in Nepal but you could simply ask the couple what they would like. Depending on your relationship with them, they might just tell you, making the process of gifting easier and personal.

Donate in their name

The trend of making donations to charities or supporting orphanages in the name of the couple getting married is becoming increasingly popular. Sponsoring a dog at an animal shelter (to help them pay for their meals and upkeep) is a good idea. Most of the places will give you a certificate in the name you make the donation in and you can simply pass this on. This is one gift that keeps giving. The receiver can choose to continue with the donation later on. You will have got the ball rolling.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is not going to resign immediately.

The office-bearers’ meeting of the CPN (Maoist Center) held in Baluwatar on Tuesday morning made a decision that the Prime Minister will not tender his resignation instead face a trust vote.

After the meeting, Maoist Center Secretary Devendra Paudel said that the Prime Minister will not put in his papers immediately, instead face a vote of confidence.

The meeting decided that the party will move ahead by holding discussions with Rastriya Swatantra Party, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML among others.

Earlier this morning, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli met Prime Minister Dahal and urged him to pave the way by resigning from his post.

Oli said that the UML will withdraw the support extended to the government and recall the ministers if he did not step down.

The two big parties—Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—have agreed to form a new government under the leadership of UML Chairman Oli.

Throughout Monday, the media and political circles were on edge due to reports of a possible change of government. Even top leaders of major parties were struggling to uncover what had transpired during recent meetings between Sher Bahadur Deuba, leader of the main opposition Nepali Congress, and KP Sharma Oli, CPN-UML chairman and a major coalition partner in the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government. 

The secrecy maintained by Deuba and Oli regarding the content of their meetings has further fuelled the rumor that NC is attempting to remove Dahal from power by forming a new alliance with UML. 

Despite the rapid developments on Monday and chatter on social media, there were no clear indications of any top-level political maneuvers. 

But according to multiple sources, it is evident that Congress has indeed offered the premiership to Oli, who was ousted from power in 2021 following a Supreme Court order. Oli and his party may take some time to decide on the offer from NC, the largest party in the 275-member House of Representatives. 

After a long gap, Deuba visited Oli's residence in Balkot this Saturday, following two rounds of talks in Kathmandu. There are reports that Deuba and Oli have agreed to form a national consensus government to address current issues such as constitutional implementation and economic challenges. Oli has repeatedly stated that the country cannot progress in its current state and is consulting within his party about the NC’s offer.

Oli is reportedly dissatisfied with the government's performance, including the recently passed budget, which he claims was introduced without coalition consultation. This makes it difficult for him to make an immediate decision, especially since his closest rival, NC, has offered him the prime ministerial position.

In a meeting with his party’s top leaders on Monday, Deuba mentioned his cordial relationship with Oli but refrained from commenting further on their ongoing talks. Deuba did not share concrete details with his party colleagues. On the same day, Prime Minister Dahal and Oli held a lengthy discussion, but neither side disclosed the content of their meetings. When asked about the possibility of becoming prime minister, Oli told journalists that he might not assume the role this year.

Amid discussions of an NC-UML alliance, Prime Minister Dahal addressed the Cabinet, assuring them that the current government would continue for a long time. Government Spokesperson Rekha Sharma stated, “The prime minister briefed that media reports regarding a new government are untrue and there have been no talks about forming a national unity government.”

Sources indicate that Oli favors forming a national unity government rather than a coalition of just two parties. The key agenda for such a government would be to amend the constitution, change the current electoral system, and remove secularism from the constitution.