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Nepali students are rapidly becoming a significant presence in the international education landscape, according to a new report by ApplyBoard, an international student mobility platform. The study reveals that Nepali students have shown impressive growth across key study destinations, including Canada, the US, the UK, and Australia. The report highlights that Nepal is emerging as a major player in the international education sector, joining countries like India, Nigeria and the Philippines.

In 2023, nearly 45,000 Nepali students received post-secondary student visas to these four English-speaking countries, marking a 15 percent increase from the previous year and a 121 percent rise since 2018. This growth underscores Nepal’s increasing prominence as a source of international students and indicates that the country is poised to play a significant role in global education in the coming decade, says ApplyBoard.

Nepali students have shown a strong desire to study abroad, with 19 percent of tertiary-level students studying internationally in 2021. This is notably higher compared to India and China, which had ratios of 1.3 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. Over the past five years, Nepal has had one of the highest outbound mobility ratios globally, with many students in the 18 to 25 age group. The country’s growing economy, projected to expand at an average rate of 5 percent in 2025 and 2026, could further drive this trend.

In 2023, nearly 16,000 Nepali students received Canadian student visas, representing over three percent of all Canadian study permits that year, a significant increase from 0.2 percent in 2018. The number of study permits for Nepali college students tripled from 2022 to 2023, with strong growth observed at the undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Nepali applicants using ApplyBoard had a 75 percent approval rate for Canadian student visas for Winter 2024.

From Oct 2023 to June 2024, 9,200 Nepali students were issued US student visas, a 61 percent increase from the total number issued in 2023. Data from the Institute of International Education indicate that 70 percent of Nepali students in the US during the 2022-23 academic year pursued STEM programs.

Over 8,500 Nepali students received UK student visas in 2023. Despite a 22 percent decrease in overall student visa issuance in the UK for international students in the first quarter of 2024, Nepali student visas increased by 27 percent. Nepal has traditionally had a lower ratio of dependents to main applicants for student visas compared to countries like India and Nigeria. The median age of Nepali students approved for UK student visas in 2024 was 21, with younger students less affected by recent UK policy changes regarding dependents, says ApplyBoard.

Australia experienced a record number of visas granted to Nepali students in 2022 following a two-year border closure. However, the high demand in 2022 resulted in a 33 percent decline in visas in 2023. Vocational education and training (VET) studies saw the most significant decrease, partly due to restrictions imposed by the Nepali government on non-degree programs and changes in Australian policy, as per the ApplyBoard report. From January to June 2024, 55 percent of student visas granted to Nepali students in Australia were for New South Wales, compared to 34 percent for the overall international student population.

In 2009, President Ram Baran Yadav decisively countered Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal's ill-advised attempt to dismiss Army Chief Rookmangud Katawal. The reinstatement of the Army Chief led to Dahal’s resignation, which he framed as a defiant stand against external interference, particularly from India. Dahal famously declared that he would engage only with the “masters” (India) and not with the “servants” (Nepali parties).

Fast forward fifteen years, and Dahal, during a party meeting, shifted his blame to the United States, alleging that external powers, including the US, played a role in his recent ouster from the government, along with that of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Since his entry into peaceful politics in 2006, Dahal has frequently made controversial and often unsubstantiated statements, consistently keeping himself at the forefront of national discourse. His rhetoric has often relied on anti-India nationalism as a tool to strengthen his political standing. Today, he appears to be using the same tactic, insinuating that foreign powers orchestrated his dismissal because he resisted their agendas.

Dahal’s self-serving narrative has inflicted more damage on his party and his own reputation than on any external entity. Within the Maoist ranks, there is growing concern that their decade-long armed struggle, which paved the way for republicanism and federalism in Nepal, will be in vain if the party continues on its current path. Yet, this existential threat seems lost on Dahal.

When in opposition, Dahal has a history of making headlines with provocative and unexpected remarks. Despite being out of power for just a month, he has already made a series of statements that have drawn public attention. Among these is his claim that the US was involved in a regime change in Kathmandu. Following the formation of a new government under CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, Dahal accused forces opposed to good governance of engineering the split within his party.

Recently, Dahal made a surprising announcement that he would not seek the prime ministership until after the 2027 elections, catching even his own party members off guard. He stated, “I will not become prime minister during this tenure of Parliament. I may consider it only if our party emerges as the largest in the 2027 elections.”

During a recent meeting in Koshi province, Dahal admitted to several mistakes, including his failure to prevent the party split, mishandling of the Maoist combatants during peace talks, mismanagement of party cadres, and his decision not to support Girija Prasad Koirala for the presidency. He also indicated a shift in strategy, asserting that his party would contest the next election independently, marking a departure from his previous alliances with UML in 2017 and Nepali Congress in 2022, despite these coalitions failing to halt the party’s decline.

Dahal also hinted at rekindling alliances with fringe communist and non-communist forces, including discussions with former Maoist splinter groups and CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal. This stands in stark contrast to his past criticism of these fringe groups while he was in power. Notably, he has revived the agenda of a directly elected chief executive, an idea the Maoists abandoned during the 2015 constitution drafting process, citing that the current parliamentary system has tainted the Maoist party.

Dahal deliberately ‘sowed division’: Sharma 

Within CPN (Maoist Center), Dahal’s leadership is under severe scrutiny. The recent proposal by Maoist Deputy General Secretary Janardan Sharma has sent shockwaves through the party, exposing deep concerns about the party’s direction and leadership. Sharma’s allegations that rumors of party splits were deliberately spread by the leadership have instilled widespread fear among party members and the public.

“The rumors started from Khumaltar (Dahal’s residence), intensified in Baluwatar (Prime Minister’s residence), and escalated further in Pokhara where the party leadership asked members to choose sides,” Sharma’s proposal states. “This sequence of events has created a widespread fear of party division among cadres and the general public.”

Sharma’s proposal criticizes Dahal for sowing division within the party, ignoring crucial discussions during key conventions, and for adopting a royal-like lifestyle that has alienated the party's core supporters.

“Baluwatar has directly named Janardan Sharma as the instigator of the split. This has led to daily phone calls from hundreds of worried party workers and citizens and has become a topic of concern for other political parties, security agencies, and even the bureaucracy,” the proposal claims.

Sharma has questioned why the 8th General Convention was undermined by the announcement of a special convention. He also criticized the leadership for disregarding discussions and opinions expressed during the Statute Convention, questioning why some members were not allowed to speak. He also inquired why propaganda campaigns were orchestrated against him and Barsha Man Pun while the party was in government.

Sharma further questioned why efforts were being made to divide rather than unite leaders at various levels within the party and why parallel committees were being operated by the leadership itself. He also questioned the rationale behind the frequent changes in government coalitions.

Sharma also criticized the party’s failure to implement key policies when it held government power, such as transferring police authority to provinces and supporting local governments. Sharma’s criticism points to a party that is shrinking, losing the trust of the constituencies that once supported it, and failing to fulfill its promises.

He attributed the party’s declining support base to the leadership’s failure to deliver on promises made during their time in government. The proposal highlights that the public disapproves of the leadership’s lifestyle, likened to that of royalty, and the disconnect between the party and its core supporters. Sharma questioned whether the party can rebuild public trust by revisiting and delivering on the issues and slogans it once championed for the people.

Sharma also raised concerns about the leadership’s stance and decisions on several policy matters. He accused the leadership of resisting calls to add ‘Kirant’ to the name of Koshi province. Sharma questioned why proposals to transfer police authority to provinces and shift small and medium-sized projects and budgets to local and provincial governments were not implemented when the party held key government positions. 

He also revealed that he was removed from his work area as a punitive measure, stating, “Despite my four-decade-long loyalty and cooperation with the leadership, my actions are being met with suspicion. The chairperson believes in creating larger conflicts to resolve smaller ones, which is causing significant harm to the party.”

Sharma has proposed dissolving the central committee and forming an interim committee under Chairperson Dahal, with the mandate to hold a convention and elect new leadership through direct elections by a specified date.

Dahal’s recent statements include

• An assertion that an “invisible force” united the NC and UML.
• A claim that a significant nationalist faction exists within UML.
• The suggestion that investigating large corruption cases led to his government’s dissolution.
• A declaration that the Maoists will contest the 2027 election independently.
• An admission of committing “five major blunders.”
• Recognition of the new government’s consensus on the TRC as an achievement.
• His refusal to seek the prime ministership until after the 2027 elections.
• Allegations that extra-regional powers were responsible for his and Sheikh Hasina’s ouster.
• A call to consolidate all fringe communist parties.
• A critique that the existing parliamentary system has corrupted the Maoist party.
• A push for a directly elected President or Prime Minister for greater stability.

As the world is increasingly moving towards automation, Nepal’s journey towards effective e-governance is still in progress. Despite significant achievements in digital public services, various challenges are still hindering the full realization of a seamless digital governance system in Nepal. 

Nepal is the first South Asian country to constitutionally recognize (1990) the right to information as a fundamental right. Nepal also promulgated the Right to Information Act, 2064 (2007). Moreover, Nepal further expanded upon this provision by providing in Article 27 as a fundamental citizen right in the Constitution of Nepal, 2015. The development of Modern ICT policy in the country began with the introduction of the Telecommunications Act of 2053 (1997) and the Telecommunication Regulation of 2054 (1997). However, the most significant policy addressing Information Technology was the Information Technology Policy 2057 (2000). 

To cover the entire spectrum of ICT, the Government of Nepal formulated the Information Communication Policy, 2072 (2015), a comprehensive policy that emphasized the need for a regulatory framework to address the convergence of telecommunications, broadcasting, and ICT. Before that, IT Policy 2010, e-governance Master plan eGMP 2007, eGMP-II 2015 and 10-year master plan 2011 complemented the digital governance framework of the country. In 2019, Nepal marked a shift in its governance landscape by launching the Digital Nepal Framework. This initiative aimed to transform public service delivery through digital means. Following this, the E-Governance Commission was introduced under the Office of Prime Minister and Council of Ministries with the introduction of the E-Governance Commission (Formation and Operation) Order, 2022, introduced to further promote electronic systems in government functions. 

Today, all the local governments have their own websites and social media pages to improve information dissemination among the citizens. Moreover, the digitization of vital registration processes and services such as Vehicle licensing and national identification has added another milestone to the digital journey of Nepal. These developments were majorly seen after the Covid-19 pandemic when the citizens and government were forced to turn to digital media. The change eventually led Nepal to improve its standing in the global e-governance Development Index, where it ranked 125th in 2022, up from 132nd in 2020. This highlights the progress in Nepal's digital transformation. 

Moreover, the challenges still persist in the case of infrastructure. Public authorities in Nepal still lack enough resources and logistics to effectively conduct those actions. A critical issue is the lack of adequately trained human resources within the public sector. As the bureaucrats, especially those from local governments, do not receive necessary exposure or training to effectively manage innovative digital systems. Due to lack of enough infrastructures and capacity building opportunities, the public sector struggles to keep pace with the technological advancements and implement efficient digital governance solutions.  

Digital divide in Nepal is more common than we think. Particularly in rural areas, where basic infrastructure for transportation, communication, internet access, and electricity is often lacking, the fruits of the automation haven't really reached the rural citizens. Moreover, there is widespread need for targeted infrastructure development and equitable resource distribution to ensure that all the citizens, despite their geographic location, get access to efficient public services. However, in urban areas, despite widespread smartphone usage and internet access, many Nepalese citizens, including tech savvy youths, still are not aware of available digital services provided by the government. This is largely due to insufficient public awareness campaigns and outreach efforts. 

Another important challenge is the cyber security challenge. In March, various government servers at the National Information Technology Centre (NITC) experienced data loss from different government agencies. It is the central data storage center where almost all the local levels and government agencies store their data. It was supposed to be the most secure center, which again grappled with such a challenge. Government servers are not secure enough, nor have they been maintained well. 

The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated digital adoption, and the current approach to e-governance needs proper refinement. There is a pressing need for enhanced training and capacity building for bureaucrats to effectively manage digital systems. The Local government requires more support from the central and provincial authorities to become truly digital friendly and responsive to public needs. Cyber diplomacy has also come forward with the potential of gaining technical support from the international community. 

For Nepal to fully capitalize on its digital potential, local governments must be empowered to utilize digital tools effectively. As the closest government to citizens, it is important to ensure the local governments have enough tech-savvy bureaucrats and infrastructures. Increasing public awareness and bridging the digital divide should be top priorities. With the widespread smartphone usage, it is vital for the government to ensure that citizens are informed about the digital services at their disposal.  

To further advance e-governance in Nepal, collaboration with the private sector, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and development partners is equally crucial. As these entities possess specialized skills and technical expertise that can significantly support government agencies in their digital transformation efforts. As Nepal gradually automates its data and information systems, Public-Private partnerships can play an increasingly vital role in addressing public needs. 

Nepal’s IT sector is growing rapidly and holds substantial potential for bolstering IT security. The irony is many local IT companies are primarily focused on securing international clients, while Nepal continues to rely heavily on foreign outsourcing. By fostering better coordination with domestic IT firms, Nepal could enhance self-reliance and develop a robust local IT ecosystem. 

The Government of Nepal introduced the Information Technology (IT) and Cybersecurity Bill which was aimed at addressing digital signatures, cloud computing, cybercrime and major digitalization of public services, including the creation of websites for all government agencies, establishment of a national cybersecurity center, and forensic center. However, the controversies surrounded the entire IT sector, which must be resolved as soon as possible. 

Looking forward, the Government of Nepal has set the goal of 90 percent of households with internet access by 2029, as per the 16th Plan. This aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set to be achieved by 2030. With the continued efforts, Nepal has a huge potential to expand digital governance and ensure that the benefits of digitization reach every household across the country, but of course a proactive approach is more than important today.

On June 7, the CPN-UML and Nepali Congress reached a seven-point consensus to form a coalition government. Days later, KP Sharma Oli cited these points from the rostrum of the Federal Parliament. While most of the agreement focuses on equitable power-sharing, it also solidifies that parties with different political ideologies will govern together for the foreseeable future. Notably, the second point of the agreement emphasizes that the national consensus government will prioritize amending the Constitution and enacting laws to ensure political stability, rather than merely reviewing the strengths, weaknesses, and complexities that have emerged since its enactment.

Given Madhes' significant political influence from the first Constituent Assembly until the Constitution's promulgation, it is crucial to gauge the political sentiments of the region. Politically, some Madhes-centric parties have already backed the Congress-UML coalition, some have stakes in the federal government, one party leads the Madhes Province, and others are still vying for federal government participation. This article aims to address two key questions: How will the Madhes Province handle the constitutional amendment issue presented by the two parties? And what kind of constitutional amendments does Madhes seek?

Madhes’ cautious approach

To understand the political pulse of Madhes Province, I spoke with Dr Vijay Singh, Vice-president of the Tarai Madhes Democratic Party and a former member of the Constituent Assembly. When asked about his party’s stance on the UML-Congress coalition’s agreement to amend the Constitution, Dr Singh welcomed the initiative but stressed the need for a thorough review of what needs to be amended. He criticized the leaders of major parties who blame the mixed electoral system for the existing electoral issues, arguing that the current system has no inherent flaws. Dr Singh pointed out that since 1991, all elections before the Constituent Assembly used the first-past-the-post (FPTP) method, which led to imbalanced, unstable, and weak government structures, underrepresentation of marginalized communities, and greater dominance of the ‘Khas-Arya’ community. In contrast, proportional representation ensures that diverse societal groups, including marginalized communities, are adequately represented.

Dr Singh also highlighted an inconsistency in the Constitution: the upper house of parliament allows for 59 members, with three appointed by the cabinet in addition to an equal number of MPs elected by each province. This setup does not align with the principles of inclusivity, as provinces with vastly different populations elect the same number of representatives. He suggested that the Indian model, where each state is guaranteed one seat in the upper house and the remaining seats are allocated based on population, could be more appropriate. Additionally, Dr. Singh called for a review of the gerrymandered electoral constituencies in the southern plains, which have been manipulated by major political parties.

Ram Saroj Yadav, a Constituent Assembly member and Nepali Congress representative in the Provincial Assembly, echoed similar concerns. He and other party members oppose any alterations to the proportional representation provision, which guarantees inclusive representation from the provincial to the federal level. Yadav stressed that Nepal’s diverse society gives regional parties a unique role in the nation, and any attempt to undermine federalism could trigger a major revolt.

Recently, Satish Singh, the Chief Minister of Madhes Province, submitted a 22-point demand to Prime Minister Oli for the development of Madhes. This highlights the province’s lack of sufficient resources and authority for its development. According to Deepak Sah, Vice-president of the Janmat Party, while Janmat supports the current coalition, they will fiercely resist any attempt by the government to backtrack on the achievements enshrined in the Constitution.

Meanwhile, UML and other national party leaders are optimistic about constitutional revisions to promote political stability, though they acknowledge the challenges of fostering development under the current framework. Historically, Nepal’s national parties have struggled to address regional identity issues, and Madhes remains particularly sensitive to any curtailment of regional party rights.

The road ahead

Electorally, the influence of Madhes-centric parties has diminished since 2017. The CPN-UML and Nepali Congress have overtaken the Janata Samajbadi Party and Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, the two major Madhes-based parties, to become the largest and second-largest parties in the province, respectively. This shift reflects growing discontent with political figures and representatives rather than with the system itself. Within Madhes-centric parties, formal and informal debates are ongoing about whether the larger national parties are attempting to sideline smaller, regional parties under the pretext of constitutional revision.

The Constitution of Nepal envisions a framework based on federalism, republicanism, secularism, and inclusivity, with fundamental rights, proportional representation, and inclusivity at its core. While there are voices in Madhes Province arguing against secularism, their political influence is minimal, and Madhes-centric parties, along with other parties, have generally supported secularism.

A constitution’s strength lies in its ability to reflect the values of the people it governs. Madhes has a significant stake in the Constitution of Nepal, having revolted in 2007 after the interim constitution was issued without mentioning federalism—an omission that cost 57 protesters their lives. The devastating 2015 earthquake prompted major political parties to sign a 16-point agreement to promulgate the Constitution, but this agreement was seen by some as a calculated move to undermine federalism. The Supreme Court ultimately mandated the promulgation of a new Constitution, which included provisions for provincial power-sharing and federal boundaries. Advocate Dipendra Jha noted that Nepal’s Constitution was created as a “constitution of winners and losers,” rather than one reflecting everyone’s sentiments.

Now, the same parties that dominated the Constituent Assembly and shaped the Constitution are attempting to amend it. It is crucial to eliminate the mindset of "winners and losers" and address past injustices. For Madhes, the amendment process represents an opportunity to ensure that the Constitution truly reflects the needs and aspirations of all Nepalis.

The author is associated with Peace Development Research Center [PDRC]