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Donald J Trump was sworn in on Monday as the 47th President of the United States, marking a remarkable political comeback. On Sunday, Trump pledged to issue nearly 100 executive orders aimed at reversing or eliminating policies enacted by the Biden administration. These orders primarily target immigration, energy policy, and a range of other issues.

Foreign policy experts suggest that Trump’s return to office warrants close attention to his trade war with China, his approach toward Asian allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, and his “America First” foreign policy. These stances could bring significant shifts to multilateralism and global diplomacy, with considerable effects on the Indo-Pacific region. Trump's transactional approach to diplomacy is expected to heighten tensions in critical areas such as the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan.

Regarding Nepal, shifting US global priorities could impact American assistance in climate change and health sectors. Political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta notes that while American foreign policy has shown consistency over time, recent years have highlighted ideological differences between Republicans and Democrats. If Trump 2.0 adopts a more aggressive foreign policy, Bhatta predicts it will manifest through economic measures, particularly tariffs. “If Trump becomes a ‘tariff man,’ it will have a ripple effect globally due to the interconnected nature of the world economy,” Bhatta said.

For smaller countries like Nepal, where economic stakes are lower, the focus will remain on geopolitics over geo-economics. However, navigating this geopolitical landscape will become more challenging, Bhatta adds, as geopolitics and geo-economics are increasingly intertwined. He also highlights potential domestic implications for Nepal stemming from Trump’s policies, especially his declared funding cuts through the Department of Government Efficiency and Governance (DOGE) and the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) agenda. If these cuts are implemented, they could significantly affect funding both domestically and internationally.

Trump’s immigration stance could also impact Nepalis in the US, particularly if he enforces stricter policies on undocumented immigrants. Bhatta speculates that such policies might be part of a bargaining strategy, commonly referred to as the ‘madman theory,’ or a genuine intent, the outcome of which remains uncertain. Additionally, Trump’s efforts to consolidate power in Asia under the MAGA banner will likely exert geopolitical pressure on countries like Nepal.

Strategic thinker Binoj Basnyat believes that Trump’s second term is likely to continue Biden’s legacy in Asia due to the region’s growing importance in global trade, security and geopolitics. He emphasizes that managing rising challenges, fostering alliances and ensuring stability will shape US strategies. India’s role as a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific region will be central to these efforts. The US will likely continue leveraging frameworks such as the 2017 “South Asia Policy”, the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy and the 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy.

Basnyat highlights that these strategies align with containing China’s rise while strengthening ties with India, designated as a major defense partner in 2016. Initiatives like the India-US 2+2 ministerial dialogue, established in 2018, will continue to influence smaller South Asian nations, including Nepal. He notes that global competition and great power influence are shaping national politics in South Asia, with Nepal’s political parties also reflecting these dynamics.

Basnyat asserts that Nepal’s strategic stability is shaped by global geostrategic factors, including the Post-Cold War syndrome in Europe, the New Cold War in the Indo-Pacific and proxy wars in the Middle East. He suggests that under any potential geopolitical scenario, Nepal’s strategic trajectory will largely depend on its relationships with New Delhi and Beijing. However, Nepal should also prioritize its ties with Washington as a third neighbor, balancing national interests without falling into strategic traps.

During the Joe Biden administration, US engagement with Nepal increased significantly, with over $700m in foreign aid provided since 2019 through the US Department of State and USAID. These initiatives focused on health, economic growth, democracy, governance and food security. One of the primary US priorities in Nepal is the smooth implementation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project. Recently, American private companies have also expressed interest in investing in Nepal’s tourism, medical and other sectors. Meanwhile, the US push for the State Partnership Program (SPP), pending since 2022, remains a contentious issue.

During Trump’s previous tenure, the 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy report sparked controversy over its implications for MCC and other bilateral initiatives. The Biden administration carefully avoided conflating these issues in bilateral discussions. Observers suggest Nepal should closely monitor Trump’s policies toward India and China, as they could indirectly affect Nepal.

In an interview with ApEx, Katie Donohoe, USAID’s mission director in Nepal, highlighted the agency’s enduring mission despite changes in US administrations. She remarked, “Since USAID was established in 1961, there have been 12 presidential administrations, and this will be my fifth transition working with USAID. While new administrations bring different policy priorities, USAID’s core mission has remained consistent.” Donohoe expressed confidence that USAID will adapt to align with the new administration’s priorities while continuing to collaborate with the government of Nepal and its people.

Dissatisfaction is gradually brewing up inside the ruling Nepali Congress over the performance of the coalition government led by CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli.

On one hand, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal is provoking NC leaders to break the coalition with UML, while on the other, there is increasing dissatisfaction inside the NC rank and file. A couple of factors are widening the rift between the two parties.  

First, NC leaders have openly criticized the government’s move to introduce four ordinances by delaying to call the Parliament session. Senior leader of the party Shekhar Koirala, who is currently in the United Kingdom, said that instead of calling the winter session of Parliament, the government is focusing on bringing ordinances.

I have a doubt whether the powerful government of two parties is turning into an authoritarian one, said Koirala, who has already declared his plan to run for the party president.

In the past, Koirala was one of the strong advocates of the NC-UML government, stating that it would bring stability but after six months, Koirala and leaders close to him have begun openly criticizing the government. 

Even those leaders close to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba are criticizing some of the decisions and speeches made by Prime Minister Oli. A few days back, Prime Minister Oli said that the constitution amendment will take place in 2030 because the amendment cannot take place without majority seats in the government.

Former foreign minister and Central Working Committee member NP Saud has publicly said Oli's statement on constitution amendment, made without consulting NC, is a violation of the agreement reached between two parties while forming the new government. Similarly, NC senior leader Arjun Nara Singh KC said that relevance of the seven-point agreement between two countries has ended after Oli’s objectionable statement on constitution amendment. The statement came at a time when NC and UML were preparing to form a taskforce to work out the modality of constitution amendment. Even a leader close to Prime Minister Oli said that there is a very slim chance of constitution amendment as some forces and parties are preparing to raise the radical agenda.

Already, there is dissatisfaction inside the NC over the signing of a framework agreement on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Leaders say though the party has stood against accepting loans under the BRI, the crux of the framework agreement is accepting loans. Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba has said time and again that Nepal has denied loans under the BRI, but NC leaders are not convinced. Senior leaders of the party such as Prakash Sharan Mahat, NP Saud and scores of leaders close to Shekhar Koirala are objecting to the signing of the BRI. 

There is another point of friction, which NC leaders have not spoken publicly about but share in private conversations: the relationship with India and western countries. They say the government's mishandling of the issues related to foreign policy has sourced NC’s relationship with India and other western powers.

Especially, our relationship with India has soured after we joined UML to form a new government, plus, Foreign Minister Deuba has failed to improve ties with India, the NC leader said: after her visit to India in August, relationship between two countries and relationship between NC and India has further deteriorated, which is concerning. According to NC leaders, before his China visit, Prime Minister Oli used to heed the advice and respect the position taken by NC but after that he is gradually dominating the NC in the decision-making process. For instance, Oli heeded NC’s position of not removing Nepal Electricity Managing Director Kul Man Ghising but now he is bent on removing Ghising.

The growing dynamics inside the NC is equally responsible for the growing criticism of the government. Now, it seems that General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa is with party President Deuba and he is supporting and in many cases he is involved in some of the decisions of the government. The Shekhar Koirala faction believes that Thapa is seeking Deuba’s support for the party presidency. It seems Deuba, Shashank Koirala and Gagan Kumar Thapa are coming closer to weaken Shekhar Koirala. If that is the case, the Shekhar Koirala camp will work to topple this government, the NC leader said.

At the same time, CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is reaching out to NC leaders, who are publicly expressing dissatisfaction over the performance of the Oli government. Dahal is urging NC leaders to make extra efforts to bring down the government. Speaking with journalists on Tuesday in Sindhupalchowk, Dahal said due to the dissatisfaction inside the NC and unpopular decisions it has taken, this government will collapse.

I cannot predict the date but I think it does not have a long life, Dahal said, due to the internal dynamics of the NC government which cannot move ahead comfortably. Dahal added that though they did not want this government to continue, they were not making any effort to topple it.  NC President Deuba, despite the differences, is in favor of the continuation of this government with a view that Oli would peacefully hand over power to him.  Dahal has conveyed the message to Deuba that the Maoists would support the NC-led government till the next elections.

Nepal and China have reaffirmed their commitment to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), highlighting the framework agreement signed during Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s visit to China in December last year. This development has been described as a milestone in enhancing bilateral ties.

In a political document presented to the Central Committee of his party, CPN-UML, Oli emphasized the significance of the agreement for Nepal-China relations. While the ruling coalition’s Nepali Congress (NC) has remained silent on the matter, China has actively engaged with Nepal’s political leadership to implement the agreement. Both Nepal’s Ambassador to China, Krishna Prasad Oli, and Chinese Ambassador to Nepal, Chen Song, have expressed optimism about the initiative, using strikingly similar rhetoric on its potential benefits.

A new era of cooperation

Ambassador Oli noted that the framework agreement marks a turning point in bilateral cooperation under the BRI, nearly seven years after the initial memorandum of understanding. He stated that projects under the BRI would help transform Nepal from a landlocked to a land-linked nation. Citing examples, he mentioned plans to enhance the operational capacity of Bhairahawa and Pokhara international airports.

A centerpiece of this cooperation is the proposed cross-border railway between Nepal and China, part of the Trans-Himalayan Multi-Dimensional Connectivity Network. This ambitious project is envisioned to facilitate the flow of goods, people and services, further deepening Nepal-China ties.

Ambassador Oli dismissed concerns over a so-called ‘debt trap’ linked to Chinese financing, calling such claims baseless. In an interview with The Global Times, he underscored the BRI’s global success, noting its partnerships with over 150 countries in its decade-long history.

Progress on infrastructure

Feasibility studies for the cross-border railway are underway and expected to conclude by 2026. Upon completion, the project will enter the implementation phase. Additionally, efforts are being made to strengthen Nepal’s transmission grid lines, which are critical for enhancing regional connectivity.

Ambassador Oli also expressed Nepal’s support for China’s Global Development Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative, reflecting broader alignment with Beijing’s strategic priorities.

According to Chinese official media outlets, Ambassador has said that Nepal supports the initiatives launched by China which were not mentioned in the bilateral documents.

In a meeting with Yang Wanming, President of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, according to The Global Times, Oli stated that Nepal supports the Global Development initiative and Global Civilization initiative proposed by China.  

China’s perspective

Chinese Ambassador Chen Song echoed the sentiments of deepening mutual trust and cooperation.

In an interview with The Global Times, he described the BRI framework agreement as a symbol of growing political and economic ties between the two nations.

According to Chen, the agreement will not only enhance bilateral relations but also contribute to regional stability and development by fostering collaboration between China and South Asian countries.

Chen highlighted the BRI’s role in strengthening people-to-people exchanges and cultural cooperation, particularly in the tourism sector, according to The Global Times.

Addressing debt-trap concerns

Ambassador Chen countered accusations of a ‘debt trap’, citing data from Nepal’s Public Debt Management Office. As of the 2023-24 fiscal year, Nepal’s external debt stood at Rs 1.25trn ($9.12bn). Of this, multilateral loans constituted 88.98 percent, while bilateral loans made up only 11.02 percent. Among bilateral creditors, Japan and India ranked first and second, with China accounting for a modest 2.82 percent of Nepal’s total external debt.

Chen criticized Western narratives about Chinese loans as attempts to discredit China’s partnerships with developing nations. He emphasized China’s commitment to offering low-interest loans, development assistance and investments tailored to Nepal’s needs.

Political dynamics

Domestically, the ruling UML has showcased the BRI framework agreement as a major achievement of Prime Minister Oli’s government. However, the NC has largely remained noncommittal, while the main opposition CPN (Maoist Center) has downplayed the agreement, seemingly to avoid crediting the Oli administration.

Meanwhile, China has intensified its engagement in Nepal, lobbying for further progress under the BRI framework. This proactive approach underscores Beijing’s strategic interest in Nepal as a critical partner in its broader Belt and Road vision.

This week, Nepal’s two major communist parties—CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—held their long-overdue Central Committee (CC) meetings. Both Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli of the UML and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Center share a common trait: they dominate their respective parties, using CC meetings as a formality to project inclusiveness, while key decisions are made unilaterally.

In the UML’s CC meeting, there was no meaningful discussion on pressing issues such as constitutional amendments. Yet, shortly after the meeting, Oli announced that amendments might be possible by 2030. The CC meeting lacked any substantive criticism of Oli’s leadership, with dissenting voices muted or expressed cautiously. This comes on the heels of the party expelling leaders Bhim Rawal, Binda Pandey and Usha Kiran Timalsina for opposing the decision to accept land from a controversial businessman for the party’s office construction. With the Supreme Court validating the land deal, Oli grew more assertive, urging party members to refrain from criticism.

During a party gathering after his China visit, Oli openly admired Xi Jinping’s unchallenged authority and expressed a desire for a similar dynamic in his party, where decisions faced no opposition. After seven months, the UML’s CC meeting was finally convened, but its purpose seemed more symbolic than functional. Critics labeled it a “rubber-stamp CC,” meant only to endorse decisions made by the top leadership without genuine consultation.

The CPN (Maoist Center) is in a comparable state. Chairman Dahal faces some resistance from senior leaders Janardhan Sharma and Barsha Man Pun, both vying to succeed him. However, this rivalry benefits Dahal by keeping them divided. The Maoist CC meeting made populist decisions to placate party members, such as rejecting alliances with the Nepali Congress (NC) and UML, opting instead to collaborate with revolutionary forces. It also pledged to restore the party’s organizational strength. However, as with UML, critical decisions on alliances and governance remain solely at Dahal’s discretion, with the CC expected to comply unquestioningly.

This week also saw a flurry of party activities concerning possible constitutional amendments. The Maoists proposed a directly elected executive head, a fully proportional electoral system, 50 percent female representation in state bodies and other progressive measures. Meanwhile, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) formed a task force under Santosh Pariyar, a former UML cadre, to draft its position on the issue. While RSP leaders, including its Chairman Rabi Lamichhane, are less ideological, Pariyar’s influence could shape the party’s stance. However, Oli downplayed the entire debate, reiterating that constitutional amendments might not occur until 2030. UML insiders suggest that Oli’s reluctance stems from opposition to radical agendas that conflict with his party’s stance, despite amendments being a key promise of the coalition government formed last year.

Inside the NC, preparations for the 15th General Convention are becoming a contentious issue. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba has remained silent on the timeline, while senior leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa have already begun campaigning for party leadership. Some party members claim Deuba prefers postponing the convention until after the next national elections, fearing it could exacerbate internal factionalism and weaken the party’s electoral performance in 2027.

Meanwhile, in the Madhes region, discussions among Madhes-based parties about unity, alliances or a loose coalition are gaining traction. Grassroots pressure is mounting for these parties to unite ahead of constitutional amendments and the 2027 elections. However, historical divisions and rivalries make such efforts challenging, leaving the outcome uncertain.

On Tuesday morning, Nepal was jolted by a 6.8 magnitude earthquake centered in Tingri, Tibet, roughly 80 kilometers north of Mount Everest. The tremor felt across Nepal, Bhutan and India was the strongest since the devastating 2015 earthquake that claimed over 9,000 lives. This recent quake serves as a stark reminder of Nepal’s vulnerability to seismic activity, underscored by the frequent small-scale tremors in western Nepal in recent months. In 2023, a magnitude-5.7 earthquake in Jajarkot caused fatalities, highlighting the urgent need for preparedness.

Amid these concerns, there was a brief moment of respite as Nepal’s mountains received snowfall this week. While the snowfall offers temporary relief, the rapid melting of glaciers remains alarming. Nepal’s iconic snow-capped peaks are increasingly turning into barren black rocks, a stark indicator of climate change. Though the mountain regions anticipate more snowfall, there is no certainty. Unfortunately, Nepal currently lacks effective measures to address this environmental crisis.

It has been more than six months since Nepal’s two major political parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML, pledged to make amendments to the 2015 constitution. However, despite their promises, tangible progress remains elusive. A few weeks ago, they announced plans to form a two-party mechanism to address constitutional amendment issues. Yet, this initiative appears stalled, with little to no significant development.

Statements from Prime Minister and CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli suggest that a constitutional amendment is not on the immediate horizon. In fact, it may not occur until after the 2027 national elections. Without giving away the specifics, Oli indicated that any potential amendment might only take place in 2030. Regarding the flaws in the constitution, he remarked, “There are some flaws in the constitution which need to be rectified, but it will take place only in 2030 because now we do not have the two-thirds majority required for it.”

The NC has remained notably silent about its position on constitutional amendments. There have been no substantial deliberations within the party, and it is unclear if there is any agreement between the NC and UML on key issues. Both parties appear to share an interest in reforming the current electoral system to ensure political stability, but dissenting voices from Madhesi and Janajati leaders within their ranks could complicate such efforts.

If the two major parties fail to take the initiative, constitutional amendments are unlikely to materialize. When the NC and UML announced their willingness to amend the constitution while forming the government in July last year, it prompted other parties to clarify their positions. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which did not exist when the constitution was promulgated in 2015, has established a task force led by Chief Whip Santosh Pariyar to determine the party’s stance on constitutional issues. The RSP’s position on governance, federalism, and the electoral system remains ambiguous. The party’s decision not to field candidates for provincial assemblies in 2022 sparked speculation that it might oppose the federal structure. However, leaders like Pariyar have expressed support for federalism and related agendas.

Meanwhile, Madhes-based parties have begun consolidating their positions on constitutional amendments. These parties are working towards forming a loose alliance to present a unified stance. The first amendment to the constitution in 2016 addressed some of their demands, bringing an end to the Madhes Movement and lifting a four-month-long blockade imposed by India. However, the Madhes-based parties still advocate for further changes to fully address their grievances.

Constitutional amendment was also a key topic of discussion at the recently concluded Central Committee meeting of CPN (Maoist Center), the main opposition. The party has outlined three primary amendments: the introduction of a directly elected president, the adoption of a fully proportional electoral system, and ensuring 50 percent representation for women in state organs. Maoist Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal has championed these radical reforms, which could reshape Nepal’s political landscape if implemented.

The fifth-largest party, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), has also initiated internal discussions on constitutional amendments. The RPP’s agenda includes abolishing federalism, reinstating Nepal as a Hindu state, and reviving the monarchy. These proposals stand in stark contrast to the positions of most other parties and are unlikely to gain widespread support.

Despite these activities among smaller parties, the NC and UML’s lack of substantive discussion on constitutional amendments is striking. For instance, during a recent UML Central Committee meeting, there was no mention of the specific changes the party seeks to introduce. According to UML leaders, the party’s strategy is to prioritize constitutional amendments only after securing a majority in the House of Representatives.

The 2015 constitution is widely regarded as a product of compromise among four major political forces: the NC, UML, Maoists, and Madhes-based parties. While this consensus allowed for the constitution’s promulgation, it has also resulted in ambiguities and areas of contention that require resolution. The UML’s current stance appears to favor amendments tailored to its terms, further delaying the process due to the lack of cross-party consensus.

As Nepal approaches the 10th anniversary of the 2015 constitution, there has been no expert-led review of its implementation. A senior UML leader has emphasized that the government’s priority is to evaluate the constitution’s effectiveness before deciding on amendments. This cautious approach reflects broader hesitations within the NC, where internal dynamics and divergent views prevent the party from supporting UML’s amendment proposals wholeheartedly.

The road to constitutional amendment is fraught with challenges. Beyond the lack of political will among major parties, there are ideological divides that hinder consensus. For instance, the UML’s preference for amendments that align with its agenda clashes with the more inclusive demands of Madhes-based parties and Janajati leaders. Similarly, the Maoist party’s call for radical reforms faces resistance from parties advocating for minimal changes.

Furthermore, the failure to address constitutional issues risks deepening public disillusionment with Nepal’s political leadership. Many citizens view the 2015 constitution as a landmark achievement that needs refinement to better serve the nation’s evolving needs. The lack of progress undermines confidence in the political process and raises questions about the commitment of major parties to democratic principles and governance.

To move forward, Nepal’s political leadership must prioritize dialogue and consensus-building. A comprehensive review of the constitution’s implementation, involving legal experts, civil society, and diverse political voices, could provide a roadmap for amendments that address the nation’s pressing challenges. 

In an effort to strengthen its position, the CPN (Maoist Center) is preparing to revive some radical agendas, including the right to self-determination and ethnicity-based autonomous provinces—issues the party abandoned during the constitution drafting process in 2015. A political document presented by Maoist Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal during the party’s Central Committee meeting proposes reactivating the ethnic and caste-based structures established during the insurgency and the subsequent peace process. These structures were compromised during the constitution drafting process to reach consensus with other parties.

The Maoist party had originally proposed 14 autonomous provinces based on ethnic groups. However, this proposal was strongly opposed by the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, who argued it could lead to national disintegration. As a result, the Maoists were forced to compromise. “The issue of identity-based federalism has been overshadowed, and we must apologize for this,” Dahal said at the ongoing Central Committee meeting. He emphasized the need to rebuild relationships with indigenous communities, Janajatis, and other marginalized groups—the party’s core constituencies—while reviving regional and caste-based party organizations.

Dahal has also expressed that the party should collaborate with revolutionary forces rather than parliamentary parties like the NC and UML. However, many Maoist leaders argue that Dahal raises such radical agendas only when relegated to the opposition bench in Parliament. A senior leader remarked, “Once he gains power through alliances with the NC or UML, he completely forgets these communities and even embraces rightist and Hindu fundamentalist agendas.”

From 2008 until the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly, the Maoists, then the largest party, vigorously championed these issues. However, the party gradually abandoned them after its relegation to third place in the 2013 Constituent Assembly elections. Dahal has now urged party members to apologize and self-criticize for not prioritizing these agendas after the constitution drafting process. Despite becoming prime minister twice post-constitution promulgation—in alliance with the NC and UML—Dahal did little to address these issues.

The political document also outlines the party's position on constitutional amendments. The Maoists propose replacing the current system with a directly elected presidential system, a longstanding agenda they have pushed since joining the peace process. Additionally, they are preparing to reiterate their support for a fully proportional representation (PR) electoral system, which other major parties are unlikely to accept. Currently, the electoral system is a mix of PR and First-Past-the-Post (FPTP). The likelihood of major party agreement on adopting full PR remains minimal.

One of Dahal’s key proposals is to increase women’s representation in state organs from the current 33 percent to 50 percent, an initiative aimed at attracting female constituencies. These proposals are part of a broader strategy to revive the party’s waning influence. Despite maintaining its position as the third-largest party in the past two national elections and serving as a decisive force in government formation, the party’s overall strength has diminished. While it retains strongholds in some districts of the far and mid-western regions, its urban presence has weakened. Dahal acknowledges this in his document and proposes a roadmap to rebuild the party’s urban support.

The roadmap includes providing opportunities for youth within the party, increasing membership, maintaining financial transparency, and exposing the current government’s misdeeds. To regain urban support, Dahal emphasizes launching targeted campaigns in Kathmandu Valley, cities, and highway areas. He underscores the importance of establishing a strong presence in the capital, vital for implementing the party’s policies and strategies. Notably, the Maoists failed to secure a single seat in Kathmandu Valley during the 2022 elections, even with an electoral alliance with the NC.

To address urban challenges, Dahal’s document proposes tackling issues such as urbanization, traditional and cultural heritage preservation, waste management, water supply, drainage, and public transportation. He recalls the party’s failed 2009 urban revolt, which was quickly abandoned following protests from Kathmandu’s elite, whom he had derisively referred to as “Sukila Mukila.”

While Dahal’s proposals aim to rejuvenate the party, his underlying priority appears to be returning to power and destabilizing the current coalition government. Reports indicate that a faction of NC and Maoist leaders is discussing forming a new alliance. This has led some party leaders to question Dahal’s sincerity in advancing the party’s position. A senior Maoist leader, speaking anonymously, stated, “Once Dahal gains power, he forgets all these agendas and even avoids convening party meetings.”

In his document, Dahal has adopted a tough stance against Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli while maintaining a softer approach toward NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, reflecting potential power-sharing considerations. Although Dahal and Oli frequently clash publicly, Dahal and Deuba rarely criticize each other in public forums.

Dahal’s proposals reflect an attempt to address both the party’s declining influence and the grievances of marginalized communities. However, internal skepticism remains about his commitment to these agendas, given his track record of abandoning them when in power. The Maoists face significant challenges in rebuilding their urban and national support base, particularly as they compete with stronger, more established parties.

Madhes-based political parties have begun deliberations on forming a unified political force to advance the region’s agendas. According to Madhesi leaders, they face mounting pressure from the local level and civil society to consolidate their efforts for greater impact.

This push for unity coincides with discussions on amending the constitution by two major political parties—Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML—an issue of critical importance to Madhes. Madhes-based parties, which did not initially endorse the 2015 constitution, saw only partial demands addressed through its first amendment in 2016.

Compounding this, Madhes has emerged as a geopolitical hotspot, drawing heightened interest from global powers. While India has traditionally wielded strong influence over Madhes and its political actors, countries like the United States and China have increased their presence through non-governmental organizations and think tanks, further complicating the region’s dynamics.

Keshav Jha, a prominent Madhesi leader, highlighted the urgency of unification. “We are under public pressure to unite the parties or, at the very least, form an alliance or loose network,” he said. However, the past 15 years have been marked by both the emergence of influential political forces and frequent splits within Madhes-based parties.

Jha noted that recent discussions among Madhesi leaders explored possibilities for collaboration but acknowledged significant challenges. Many leaders and civil society figures attribute the fragmentation of these parties to personal ambitions for power. A senior Madhesi leader Laxman Lal Karna further accused the major national parties—NC, UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—of engineering splits within Madhes-based parties to weaken their influence.

Before 2006, the Sadbhawana Party was Madhes’ sole dominant political force. However, the first Constituent Assembly elections saw the rise of the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum under Upendra Yadav. The same year, senior NC leader Mahantha Thakur broke away to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP). Splits within these parties became a recurring trend, notably in 2009, when differences between Yadav and Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar over joining the UML-led  government led to a major division. This cycle of fragmentation continues to this day.

In the last decade, a shift has occurred as Madhes-based parties strive to establish themselves as national political entities rather than remaining confined to a regional identity. Sociologist Pranab Kharel noted that most parties have removed the term ‘Madhes’ from their names in pursuit of a broader appeal. A prominent example is the 2016 unification between Upendra Yadav and former Maoist leader Baburam Bhattarai, who formed Naya Shakti to create a powerful national party. However, their efforts faltered due to personality clashes.

Kharel believes this identity struggle creates confusion. “There’s a lack of clarity on whether to operate as a provincial party for Madhes or expand as a national force. Personally, I think Madhes needs a strong provincial party to address its issues effectively,” he said. Despite leading the Madhes provincial government, the influence of Madhes-based parties in national politics has significantly waned due to internal divisions. Observers also point out that these parties face public scrutiny over unmet promises, with two elections held since the promulgation of the new constitution.

While the idea of unity among Madhes-based parties is gaining traction, observers caution that achieving it will be difficult. Personality clashes remain a significant hurdle, with no single leader commanding enough respect to unite all factions. Previous attempts to adopt rotational leadership systems also failed to resolve this issue. Additionally, ideological differences persist; leaders with backgrounds in liberal democracy clash with those rooted in leftist ideologies, making consensus elusive.

Amid these challenges, Keshav Jha notes a new polarization within Madhes. Anil Kumar Jha, leader of the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, advocates for cooperation. “This is not the time to dwell on past weaknesses. We must take initiatives for a new kind of collaboration in Madhes,” he said. While he sees little potential for outright unification, he emphasizes the need for alliances and partnerships.

Raj Kishwor Yadav, vice-chairperson of the Janata Samajbadi Party, echoed this sentiment, stressing the importance of adapting to changing domestic and international dynamics. “The shifts in both domestic and global politics are affecting Nepal. We need fresh thinking when discussing alliances and unification,” he said. Similarly, Renu Yadav, another vice-chairperson of the Janata Samajbadi Party, emphasized that while multiple Madhes-based parties exist, they share common agendas.

Despite the challenges, the discourse around unification and collaboration among Madhes-based parties reflects a recognition of the region’s political fragmentation and the need for a cohesive approach to address its longstanding issues. Whether these efforts will lead to meaningful change remains to be seen.

In 2024, Nepal experienced significant turbulence both domestically and in foreign relations. In July, CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli assumed the Office of the Prime Minister for the third time, supported by the largest party, Nepali Congress (NC). Despite forming a numerically strong government, the coalition has struggled to instill hope for stability. Doubts persist about the government’s longevity, despite leaders from both NC and UML insisting it will last until the 2027 national elections. Economically, Nepal’s struggles continued, showing little improvement. While external economic indicators improved slightly, domestic challenges remained unaddressed.

 Relations with China and the US remained stable, but ties with India deteriorated. Nepal’s engagement with long-standing development partners progressed steadily. The Oli administration promised economic reforms, improved service delivery, job creation, and fostering optimism among youth. Additionally, NC and UML pledged to amend the constitution based on lessons from its implementation. However, progress on these fronts remained limited.

Economic stagnation persisted, with some gains in the stock market overshadowed by poor revenue collection and low capital expenditure. The continued practice of last-minute expenditure resulted in inefficient investment and inflationary pressures. The real estate sector, a significant revenue source, remained in decline, with annual revenues dropping from Rs 70bn pre-covid to Rs. 46bn. In contrast, tourism rebounded robustly. Data from Nepal Tourism Board revealed that 1,104,702 tourists visited Nepal in 2024, returning the industry to pre-pandemic levels.

Despite these improvements, general pessimism grew as thousands of youths sought opportunities abroad for education and employment. Public services showed little improvement, leaving citizens disillusioned. Promised constitutional amendments remain stalled, with NC and UML yet to form the joint mechanism required to initiate the process. The government’s slow progress on its commitments is fostering doubts about its ability to deliver.

The coalition faced a major test in September when floods and landslides ravaged the country, causing over 250 deaths and infrastructural losses worth billions. While Prime Minister Oli attended the 79th United Nations General Assembly in New York, his administration’s inadequate disaster response undermined public trust. Effective coordination could have saved lives, but the government’s failure in crisis management became a defining moment of its tenure, eroding its credibility.

Domestically, the arrest of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) President Rabi Lamichhane for alleged involvement in cooperative fraud, money laundering, and organized crime dominated headlines. Police filed charges in the Kaski district court, but opposition parties, including CPN (Maoist Center) and Lamichhane’s RSP, labeled the arrest politically motivated. Meanwhile, the government faced criticism for shielding NC and UML allies accused of corruption while targeting opposition leaders.

Within the ruling UML, former President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s return to active party politics sparked internal debate. Her participation in party programs signaled a comeback, with some leaders encouraging her involvement. The NC saw internal discussions on future leadership, with Shekhar Koirala campaigning for the presidency while the party President Sher Bahadur Deuba remained silent. NC General Secretary and president hopeful Gagan Kumar Thapa announced his candidacy, intensifying the contest. Similarly, the Maoist Center debated whether to reintegrate former Vice President Nanda Kishor Pun Pasang into its ranks.

Transitional justice saw a rare consensus among major parties on the need for a new bill, earning international praise. However, the government failed to appoint officials to transitional justice mechanisms, stalling progress. On the foreign front, Prime Minister Oli’s visit to China in December garnered significant attention. Marking a departure, he chose China for his first foreign visit, as he had in 2016 after awaiting considerable time for an invite from India. During the trip, Nepal signed a framework agreement for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, identifying 10 projects for implementation. China’s lobbying for swift action on these projects underscored its growing influence in Nepal.

Relations with India remained strained. Although bilateral engagements continued, Oli received no invitation to visit India. A notable achievement was a trilateral agreement among Nepal, India and Bangladesh to trade 40 MW electricity, allowing Nepal to sell electricity to a third country for the first time. Despite expectations of improved ties, relations between Oli and the Indian establishment remained lukewarm. Nepal’s relationship with the US remained stable as American officials visited Kathmandu to deepen engagement. However, the perception of US influence in Nepal’s domestic affairs continued to provoke mixed reactions.

Public sentiment grew increasingly pessimistic. Many youth believe the country’s trajectory will worsen, fueling frustration with major political parties. Anti-constitution forces have started gaining traction, exploiting public discontent. Despite their pledge to ensure stability, NC and UML face mounting skepticism about their ability to deliver meaningful change.