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The Donald Trump administration has sent a clear signal that it intends to pursue an aggressive strategy to counter Chinese influence across the Indo-Pacific region. In a significant policy address on March 25, US Secretary of Defense Pete Herseth outlined the administration’s vision for the region, marking the first comprehensive articulation of its Indo-Pacific strategy after assuming office in January. Herseth’s remarks built upon the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) introduced during Trump's first presidency in 2017, while introducing new elements reflecting the current geopolitical landscape.

Speaking at an event hosted by the Daniel K Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, Herseth emphasized the critical importance of US alliances in the region, stating: “Our alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific matter a great deal to the United States. They matter because the Indo-Pacific is the region of consequences.” 

He reaffirmed the administration’s commitment to Trump's original vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” first articulated during a 2017 speech in Vietnam, describing it as a framework where nations can prosper as sovereign and independent states.

The defense secretary’s remarks come amid already strained US-China relations, exacerbated by Trump's imposition of sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods. Herseth’s speech made clear that the administration intends to extend this tougher approach to military and security matters, declaring that “no one should question the United States' resolve to defend its interests in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.” He emphasized America's military superiority, vowing to maintain “the strongest, most effective and most lethal force in the world” to deter potential adversaries.

This renewed focus on the Indo-Pacific revives a strategy that has previously caused diplomatic complications for some regional partners. The original 2017 IPS identified Nepal as a US partner in its 2019 document, sparking significant domestic criticism in Kathmandu where the strategy was widely perceived as an anti-China military alliance. In 2022, the Joe Biden administration subsequently recalibrated the approach, emphasizing economic cooperation over military alignment and deliberately avoiding references to the IPS in official communications with Nepal to prevent controversy. This shift was particularly important following the backlash against the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact after US defense officials publicly linked it to the IPS in 2018.

Herseth’s address placed particular emphasis on strengthening military-to-military relationships across the region, suggesting that the Trump administration may seek to expand defense cooperation with countries like Nepal. This could include renewed pressure to finalize the long-pending State Partnership Program (SPP) agreement, which has been on hold due to Nepal’s concerns about upsetting its delicate balance between China and India. The US Indo-Pacific Command has maintained consistent engagement with Nepal’s military, and this cooperation is expected to intensify under the current administration.

The defense secretary framed the administration's approach as seeking “peace through strength” while attempting to reassure allies that “America First does not mean America only or America alone.” However, he acknowledged the need to reassess existing military partnerships, stating: “It means our military-to-military relationship must make sense for America and our partners. If there are imbalances, we will find them and we will fix those imbalances. We will right-size the obligations and responsibilities needed.”

Herseth’s current tour of the region, including stops in Guam, the Philippines, and Japan for high-level meetings with both military and civilian leaders, has drawn particular attention from Beijing. Analysts note that the Philippines holds special strategic significance in US planning, with Chinese commentator Shi Hong pointing out in Global Times that Manila’s geographic position—with its northern islands near Taiwan and western coastline facing the South China Sea—makes it particularly valuable for countering Chinese influence.

The administration’s strategy appears to involve pressuring wealthier regional nations to increase their defense spending while potentially boosting military assistance to smaller partners like Nepal. This approach presents Kathmandu with a complex diplomatic challenge, as accepting greater US military support could strain its relationships with both China and India. The key question for Nepalese policymakers will be how to navigate potential US pressure to enter into strategic agreements without compromising the country’s traditional non-aligned stance or its vital relationships with neighboring powers.

As the Trump administration moves to implement this more assertive Indo-Pacific strategy, the coming months will likely see increased US engagement across the region, with particular focus on strengthening military partnerships and countering Chinese influence. The extent to which smaller nations like Nepal can maintain their balancing act between major powers while responding to these new strategic pressures remains to be seen.

The sixth summit of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), taking place from April 1 to 5 in Thailand, is set to be a defining moment for the regional bloc. At the heart of the discussions will be the adoption of BIMSTEC Vision 2030, a strategic roadmap aimed at expanding and strengthening collaboration among member-states.

Adding to the summit’s significance, leaders are expected to approve a comprehensive report by the Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG), which proposes sweeping reforms to reinvigorate and redefine the organization’s role in the region. Indra Mani Pandey, Secretary-General of BIMSTEC, underscored the importance of this gathering in an interview with ANI, highlighting that it will be the first in-person summit since Kathmandu hosted the event in 2018.

One of the key outcomes will be the formalization of BIMSTEC Vision 2030, a forward-looking framework designed to guide future cooperation. Additionally, leaders will adopt rules of procedure, building on the momentum of the BIMSTEC Charter’s enforcement in May 2023. The summit will also witness the signing of a Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement, a crucial step toward enhancing regional connectivity. Another major highlight will be the virtual inauguration of the BIMSTEC Energy Centre in Bengaluru, an initiative aimed at fostering knowledge-sharing in energy sector reforms, regulations, and best practices among member nations.

Despite being established in 1997, BIMSTEC only adopted its foundational charter in 2022, reflecting its historically slow progress. However, with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) remaining inactive due to persistent India-Pakistan tensions, BIMSTEC has emerged as a potential alternative for regional collaboration. India, in particular, has been actively working to elevate BIMSTEC’s role, though officials maintain that SAARC could still be revived in the future.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli will lead Nepal’s delegation to the summit, reiterating the country’s support for BIMSTEC while emphasizing that it should not be seen as a replacement for SAARC. The 2018 Kathmandu Summit, held during Oli’s previous term, produced an 18-point declaration, setting a precedent for ambitious outcomes this year.

On the sidelines of the summit, Prime Minister Oli is scheduled to hold bilateral meetings, including with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, raising prospects for progress on regional diplomacy.

As BIMSTEC seeks to move beyond years of sluggish progress, this summit could mark the beginning of a new chapter in regional cooperation, one that bridges South Asia and Southeast Asia more effectively than ever before.

It has been nearly two weeks since former King Gyanendra Shah re-emerged into the spotlight of national politics. His resurgence has sparked a wave of criticism and aggressive rhetoric from leaders of major political parties, including former prime ministers, who have resorted to harsh and uncivil language to discredit him. Meanwhile, some politicians have taken to the streets to counter potential royalist protests in the Kathmandu Valley.

On March 9, approximately 13,000 people escorted Shah from the airport to his private residence, marking a significant show of support. Since then, two distinct narratives have emerged in national politics. First, the former king appears to be attempting to establish a unified command to launch Kathmandu-centric protests, appointing Nava Raj Subedi, a veteran of the Panchayat era, to lead the campaign. However, despite Subedi’s broad acceptance, pro-monarchy forces have refused to rally under his leadership. Subedi, previously associated with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, resigned from his position to take on this new role.

Shah’s immediate challenge is to unite all monarchy supporters under a single banner. Encouraged by the March 9 turnout, he is preparing to tour other parts of the country to garner further support for the monarchy. However, there are indications that the government may restrict his activities if he becomes more politically active, potentially infringing on his constitutional right to free movement.

On the other hand, major political parties are mobilizing their cadres to demonstrate their strength in the streets. The CPN-UML has been engaged in serious deliberations about Gyanendra’s plans to return to power, with senior leaders discussing the potential backing of royalist forces by external actors. The CPN (Maoist Center) and other fringe parties are also preparing to counter royalist movements, signaling that Kathmandu is likely to witness increased protests in the coming days. Nepal’s highly politicized civil society has aligned with mainstream political parties to oppose any potential revival of the monarchy.

Amidst this political tension, pro-monarchy groups have spread misinformation suggesting that the Nepali Army supports the restoration of the monarchy. In response, the army has reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding Nepal’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national unity in accordance with the constitution. The army’s statement comes amid growing calls from royalist factions for the military to play a role in reinstating the monarchy.

There are also murmurs within political and diplomatic circles that certain forces are fueling pro-monarchy protests not to restore the king but to destabilize Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. Analysts suggest that increased street protests could pave the way for a national unity government, potentially forcing Oli to step down. Reports indicate that Nepali Congress (NC) and Maoist leaders are already discussing the formation of such a government, arguing that only a strong administration can preserve the current political system. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is reportedly working to remove Oli from power.

Meanwhile, the coalition government formed by the NC and UML had pledged to amend the constitution, but progress has stalled. However, the NC has taken some steps in this direction. The party’s Professional and Intellectual Department conducted consultations across all seven provinces on constitutional amendments and submitted its report to Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The report recommends declaring Nepal a Hindu state in the constitution’s preamble, a move that contradicts the party’s current stance. While support for a Hindu state is growing within the party, there is no significant backing for the monarchy. The report also suggests reducing administrative costs associated with the federal structure, ensuring 50 percent representation of women in state mechanisms, and prioritizing geographical factors over population in electoral constituency delimitation, including reducing the number of constituencies.

In international developments, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba visited New Delhi to participate in the Raisina Dialogue, where she held bilateral talks with foreign ministers from several countries, including India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Nepal is preparing to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Sagarmatha Dialogue, and Deuba was expected to extend the invitation during her visit. The Nepali government is focused on attracting high-level dignitaries from both India and China.

In another development, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its partnership with Nepal. A State Department spokesperson stated, “While programs that do not align with American interests have been terminated, the United States remains committed to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.” The spokesperson emphasized that the US is dedicated to supporting Nepal’s sovereignty by bolstering democratic resilience and promoting economic opportunities. However, negotiations between Nepal and the US have yet to resume following the withdrawal of US support. Additionally, Nepal’s embassy in Washington remains vacant, as Ambassador Lok Darshan Regmi has yet to assume office five months after his appointment. Experts suggest that due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location, the Trump administration is likely to continue its aid to counterbalance the influence of India and China.

On the economic front, Nepal’s public debt has increased by 9.93 percent to Rs 2,676.03bn over the first eight months of the current fiscal year, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO). This represents an increase of Rs 241.93bn since mid-July 2023.

There is some positive news as well. Policy reforms introduced by the government through ordinances are beginning to yield results. Nepal recorded its highest foreign investment commitments in the current fiscal year during the eighth month (mid-February to mid-March), with the Department of Industry approving Rs 17.79bn for 40 projects. These projects are expected to create 833 new jobs, bringing the total foreign investment commitments for the fiscal year to Rs 44.66bn across 427 projects. A recent study by the department identified policy shortcomings as the primary obstacle to higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, prompting the government to address these issues through recent ordinances.

In Nepal-China relations, Sichuan Airlines has launched its first international flight to Pokhara International Airport under regular commercial operations. Since its inauguration in January 2023, the airport has struggled financially, and the weekly flights by Sichuan Airlines are expected to provide some relief. Additionally, a business delegation from Sichuan has reached agreements with Pokhara, potentially fostering further economic collaboration.

The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.

 In response to inquiries from ApEx, a State Department spokesperson stated, “While programs that do not align with American interests have been terminated, the United States remains committed to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.”

Building on 77 years of successful collaboration, the United States is dedicated to supporting Nepal’s sovereignty by bolstering democratic resilience and promoting economic opportunities, the spokesperson added. When asked about the list of canceled projects under the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the spokesperson noted, “The US Government's review of all foreign assistance is ongoing.”

Recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had terminated 83 percent of USAID-run programs globally, amounting to the cancellation of 5,200 projects. While reports suggest that dozens of USAID-funded projects in Nepal have also been affected, there has been no official confirmation. Officials indicate that not only are ongoing projects at risk, but several American institutions in Nepal are also on the verge of closure. Regarding specific projects, the spokesperson said, “We do not have additional information to share on specific program awards at this time.”

On March 18, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Arzu Rana Deuba, met with Ricky Gill, Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and National Security Council Senior Director for South and Central Asia, on the sidelines of the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi. Gill assured Minister Deuba that the US would continue to support Nepal. “Gill and I also discussed Nepal-US ties, which are rooted in shared democratic and human rights values,” Rana said. “I am confident that our cooperation will continue to grow over the years.”

In a related development, a federal judge ruled that the dismantling of USAID likely violated the US Constitution. The court order requires the Trump Administration to restore email and computer access to all USAID employees, including those placed on administrative leave.

In his verdict, Judge Theodore Chung wrote, “The court finds that defendants’ actions to shut down USAID on an accelerated basis, including the apparent decision to permanently close USAID headquarters without the approval of a duly appointed USAID office, likely violated the United States Constitution in multiple ways.”

Just two weeks ago, a palpable tension existed between Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal. However, they have now begun to align in defense of the 2015 constitution, citing an increasing threat from pro-monarchy forces. Despite this newfound unity, critics argue that the poor governance and misrule under Dahal’s leadership have inadvertently strengthened the monarchy's resurgence. In response, both ruling and opposition parties are joining forces to counter the growing influence of pro-monarchy factions. Prime Minister Oli and Dahal have adopted a more conciliatory approach toward each other in light of these developments.

As pro-monarchy forces work to establish a unified front to mobilize supporters, mainstream political parties are preparing to rally their own cadres to safeguard the current federal republican system. Leaders from major political parties, with the exception of the Nepali Congress (NC), have publicly accused former King Gyanendra Shah of attempting a comeback with external backing, though they have not provided detailed evidence to support these claims.

During a recent CPN-UML internal meeting, senior leaders expressed concerns that Shah is engaging in destabilizing activities under the influence of certain powers. They emphasized the need for republican forces to unite despite their differences. Some leaders have even proposed the idea of a national unity government—a vaguely defined concept that has remained unrealized since 2008—to counter potential protests by royalist forces. While leaders from the NC and Maoist Center have discussed this possibility, it is unlikely to materialize soon. Maoist Chairman Dahal has publicly denied any ongoing discussions about his party joining the government, stating that while they are prepared to offer solutions in the event of a crisis, no such talks are currently taking place.

Both pro-monarchy forces and mainstream political parties are gearing up for potential street protests, signaling that Kathmandu may soon witness significant demonstrations. The government is expected to face challenges in managing the situation. The Samajbadi Morcha (Socialist Front), a coalition of communist parties including the Maoist Center, CPN (Unified Socialist) and two smaller factions, is planning a mass demonstration on March 19. Similarly, the ruling UML is preparing to mobilize millions of its cadres to defend the republican system.

Pro-monarchy groups have been staging protests for some time, but recent efforts suggest a push for greater unity. Navaraj Subedi, a leader from the Panchayat era, has launched a campaign titled the “People’s Movement Committee for the Restoration of Monarchy.” Former King Shah has reportedly chosen Subedi as a unifying figure to bridge divides among pro-monarchist factions. However, it remains uncertain whether parties like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal will fully unite under this banner. RPP Chair Rajendra Lingden has asserted that his party should lead the movement, given its longstanding advocacy for the monarchy. Subedi has issued a public appeal for support, outlining three key demands: the restoration of the monarchy, the reinstatement of Nepal as a Hindu state and the abolition of federal structures.

Despite these efforts, Shah faces challenges in uniting all pro-monarchy supporters under a single command. For instance, while RPP Chair Lingden has expressed support for pro-monarchy campaigns, he has distanced his party from the Subedi-led committee. Nevertheless, senior RPP members Rabindra Mishra and Dhawal Shumsher Rana have joined the mobilization committee.

Leaders close to the former king describe this as a critical moment and possibly his final attempt to gauge public support for a return to the throne. Unlike previous fragmented efforts, this marks the first time Shah has taken a proactive role in forming a unified structure under Subedi's leadership. According to sources close to the former king, he believes this is an opportune time to rally public backing, as future opportunities may be limited. However, the success of this endeavor remains uncertain, given the internal divisions among pro-monarchy factions and the broader political landscape.

On March 9, Tribhuvan International Airport witnessed a historic gathering as thousands of supporters welcomed former King Gyanendra Shah upon his return from Pokhara. The crowd, estimated at 14,000 by police, escorted the former King to his private residence, Nirmal Niwas, in a show of solidarity for the monarchy. Organized by pro-monarchist parties like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (led by Rajendra Lingden) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal (led by Kamal Thapa), alongside Hindu outfits and businessman Durga Prasai, the event marked one of the largest monarchist demonstrations in recent years. Despite a lack of coordination among organizers, the turnout has energized monarchist forces, who are now planning more protests to push for the restoration of a ceremonial monarchy.

The rally was not just a show of support for the former King but also a reflection of growing dissatisfaction with the current political system. Many participants expressed frustration with the failure of political parties to address issues like corruption, unemployment, and poor governance. The monarchist movement, though fragmented, has gained momentum in recent years, with significant demonstrations in 2021 and 2023 drawing considerable attention from both domestic political parties and the international community. However, these protests have lacked a unified structure or leadership, with deep divisions among various groups hindering the emergence of a cohesive movement.

Interestingly, the protests have inadvertently united Nepal’s major political parties, who are now preparing counter-demonstrations to defend the republican system. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has warned against any attempts to undermine the constitutional setup, while CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal is leading efforts to counter the royalist movement. Dahal has canceled all party programs to focus on organizing a Kathmandu-centric movement to protect the current republican system. The largest party, Nepali Congress, however, has not taken the protests seriously, with some members arguing that the growing support for monarchy reflects public dissatisfaction with the failure of political parties to deliver on their promises.

Meanwhile, Kulman Ghising, the managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), continues to dominate headlines. Despite facing scrutiny from the Energy Ministry and political pressure, Ghising remains a beloved figure for his role in ending Nepal’s chronic load-shedding crisis. This week, Energy Minister Deepak Khadka credited India for resolving the power crisis, downplaying Ghising’s contributions. However, Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa defended Ghising, emphasizing his impending retirement and the public’s overwhelming support for him. With Ghising’s popularity intact, the government appears hesitant to take any drastic action against him.

Ghising’s tenure at NEA has been marked by significant achievements, including the reduction of load-shedding hours and the improvement of the country’s power distribution system. His efforts have earned him widespread acclaim, but they have also made him a target for political maneuvering. During the recent elections, the CPN (Maoist Center) used Ghising’s achievements as a campaign tool, further complicating his position. Despite the challenges, Ghising’s legacy as a transformative leader in Nepal’s energy sector remains secure.

In another significant development, the cancellation of dozens of USAID-funded projects has sent shockwaves through Nepal’s development sectors, including health, education, agriculture, and democracy. The government is scrambling to address the gap, but political leadership remains silent on the issue. While India and China may step in to fill the void, their support is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss of US aid. With the UK also cutting foreign aid and Europe prioritizing defense spending, Nepal faces an uphill battle to secure alternative resources. As the US shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, Nepal may soon initiate talks to revive critical projects.

The cancellation of USAID projects has raised concerns about the future of Nepal’s development initiatives. Many of these projects were aimed at improving healthcare, education, and agricultural productivity, and their sudden termination has left a significant void. Government officials have started consultations on how to address the gap, but the lack of a clear strategy has left many stakeholders worried. The situation is further complicated by the geopolitical dynamics in the region, with India and China viewing the US presence in Nepal with suspicion.

On the domestic front, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, often criticized for neglecting provincial structures, is now engaging directly with provincial assemblies. This week, he addressed assemblies in Lumbini, Far-West, and Karnali, signaling a renewed commitment to federalism. Whether this marks a genuine shift in policy or a political maneuver remains to be seen. Oli’s engagement with provincial structures comes at a time when there is growing discontent with the central government’s handling of federalism. Many provincial leaders have accused the central government of undermining their authority and failing to allocate adequate resources.

Oli’s outreach to provincial assemblies is seen as an attempt to address these concerns and strengthen the federal structure. However, critics argue that his efforts are too little, too late, and that more concrete actions are needed to ensure the success of federalism in Nepal. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Oli’s engagement with provincial structures will lead to meaningful change or remain a symbolic gesture.

In the realm of diplomacy, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba is currently in India, where she is participating in the prestigious Raisina Dialogue. Alongside her diplomatic engagements, Deuba is expected to meet Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and extend an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the upcoming Sagarmatha Dialogue in Kathmandu. The Oli government is keen to strengthen ties with India, but an official invitation for PM Oli to visit India is still pending. As both nations explore the possibility of high-level visits, Nepal’s diplomatic efforts remain in the spotlight.

The Sagarmatha Dialogue, scheduled for May 16-18, is expected to bring together top leaders from across the region to discuss issues of mutual interest. The event is seen as an opportunity for Nepal to showcase its diplomatic prowess and strengthen its ties with neighboring countries. However, the success of the dialogue will depend on the participation of key leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Eight Madhes-based parties are working to form an alliance to push for the unfulfilled demands of the Madhesi and Tharu communities. Over the past few days, these parties have been meeting regularly to finalize the alliance's structure, code of conduct and leadership. They are also reviewing past agreements with the government, assessing what has been addressed and what remains pending. However, there is a broad agreement that the alliance should not have "Madhes" in its name to present itself as a national political force rather than a regional one.

These parties have clarified that their coalition is not anti-government. The discussions involve the Janata Samajbadi Party, Janamat Party, Janata Samajbadi Nepal, Nagarik Unmukti Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, Janata Pragatishil and Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party. Once a dominant force in Nepal’s first Constituent Assembly (CA), Madhes-based parties have gradually lost influence in recent years.

Madhes-based parties opposed the 2015 constitution, which led to its first amendment in 2016, addressing some of their demands. However, after the 2017 local elections, these parties largely abandoned their initial agenda, prioritizing power instead. Now, they are paying close attention to constitutional amendment discussions, especially remarks by major party leaders suggesting that Banke and Bardiya be incorporated into Karnali province—a proposal strongly opposed by Madhesi and Tharu leaders.

Resham Lal Chaudhary, coordinator of Nagarik Unmukti Party, stated that a task force has been formed to identify common concerns, review the implementation of past agreements and highlight unresolved issues. The timing of this effort coincides with ruling parties' plans to amend the constitution, which could directly impact Madhesi and Tharu representation. For instance, the government aims to increase electoral thresholds and modify the current electoral system, changes that Madhes-based parties view with skepticism.

A key demand remains the public release of a report prepared by a commission constituted under former Supreme Court Justice Girish Chandra Lal, which investigated human rights violations during the 2015-16 Madhesi uprising. Madhes-based leaders argue that the government’s failure to make this report public has denied justice to victims, particularly in the Tharu community.

Additionally, Madhes-based parties are aligning with other identity-based movements in Nepal. They have expressed solidarity with protests against a proposed cable car project in Pathibhara, a site known as Mukkumlung in Kirati scriptures. During a solidarity event, Rajendra Mahato, leader of Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal, urged the government to address the demands of Limbuwan activists, reaffirming his party’s support for their cause.

The renewed push for Madhes unity comes as Nepal’s major parties prepare for constitutional amendments, new political forces emerge and local elections approach. In the 2022 federal elections, the strength of Madhes-based parties declined significantly. Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party and CK Raut’s Janamat Party each secured six seats, while Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal won five, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party four and Nagarik Unmukti Party four.

Despite ongoing discussions, it remains uncertain whether Madhes-based parties will succeed in forming an alliance, let alone achieving party unification. Previous attempts have failed due to leadership disputes. Moreover, these parties often align with major national parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—to secure electoral victories rather than uniting among themselves. Many in Madhes are disillusioned with their leadership, seeing them as power-hungry rather than committed to fulfilling their promises.

Should CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s efforts to break the NC-UML coalition government falter, he may extend support to Madhesi and Janajati demands. If the coalition remains intact until the 2027 elections, an alliance between Maoist, Madhesi and Janajati forces could emerge. However, whether this will translate into lasting political gains for Madhes-based parties remains to be seen.

By all accounts, the country is not on the right path. Nepal is facing a multitude of challenges that require immediate and concerted efforts to address. From agriculture and corruption to climate change and political instability, the issues are deeply interconnected. Without urgent action, the country risks further decline, with long-term consequences for its economy, society, and democracy. To support my argument, I have identified the 10 major problems Nepal is facing today.

Agriculture

I do not want to rely on government statistics, but based on my visits to Karnali, Sudurpashchim and areas surrounding the Kathmandu valley, I can say that Nepal’s agricultural sector is witnessing an alarming decline, with decreasing productivity. On one hand, there is a lack of youth willing to work in agriculture; on the other, a small group of local politicians and government officials are hijacking government subsidies, sidelining genuine farmers. One must be an active member of a political party to receive fertilizer and seed subsidies. Additionally, some people are forging fake agricultural documents to siphon funds that never reach the farmers. Market access for local farmers remains a major issue. Fertile agricultural lands are dangerously becoming barren, and their visible impact will be evident within the next 10 years.

Corruption

For a long time, everyone has been saying that corruption is everywhere, so this issue may seem redundant. However, believe me, it has reached an alarming level, especially at the local level. Corruption has severely compromised the quality of infrastructure projects. There is a dangerous nexus between politicians, government officials and contractors. For instance, I have personally witnessed cases where less than 30 percent of the allocated budget is actually spent on infrastructure projects. Corruption exists even in small health posts—people do not receive the free government-provided medicines because they are diverted to private pharmacies for profit. Corruption has permeated every level of budget allocation and project implementation.

Economy

Government indicators may suggest a gradual economic recovery, as it is also a necessity for the government to manipulate economic data to show progress. For example, the current government has claimed improvements compared to the previous administration. However, the overall sentiment in society clearly indicates that the economy is struggling. Business owners are under severe stress. Visit any small shop, and you will hear about the difficulties they face. People are hesitant to start new businesses due to high loan risks. Even top businesspeople are gradually losing confidence in the national economy. Whether you talk to a small tea shop owner or a leading business figure, optimism is hard to find.

Climate change

Again, this may not sound like a new issue because everyone is talking about it, but Nepal is facing a severe crisis due to climate change. Unfortunately, for our politicians, it is not a matter of urgency. But don’t just blame them—even US President Donald Trump called climate change a hoax. However, visit farms and talk to farmers, and you will feel its devastating effects firsthand. The September floods swept away agricultural lands around the Kathmandu valley. Over the past few months, prolonged droughts have seriously affected winter crops. In the coming years, both floods and droughts will continue to impact vital areas such as water availability, crop production, biodiversity and human settlements.

Misinformation and disinformation

This has emerged as one of the biggest risks to society. Social media platforms are filled with disinformation, and it is disheartening to see that people believe misinformation more readily than the facts. There is a low level of awareness about deepfake technology and how such content is created. This issue could lead to social unrest at any time. Politicians are aware of the spread of disinformation, yet there is no urgency to address it. Passing a few laws alone will not be enough; the government must launch a large-scale awareness campaign. Without it, disinformation could create security threats and other serious problems.

Youth migration

Every young person with a high school degree wants to go abroad. At college classrooms, I hear students discussing their plans to leave. In tea shops, I hear young people talking about how to gather funds to migrate. And in my home village in Kavre, I rarely see young people—most have already left. When I travel abroad, I find many Nepalis working and studying there. This trend does not need further explanation; its long-term economic impact will be severe, especially in the next decade.

Geopolitical tensions

Growing geopolitical tensions are gradually affecting Nepal. The Russia-Ukraine war has had economic and social repercussions here. Additionally, the escalating tensions between the US and China during Trump’s administration will not spare Nepal. Meanwhile, the growing influence of major global powers is increasing polarization within Nepali society. Our politicians are losing their ability to manage or leverage these global developments for the country’s benefit.

Political vacuum

Nepal currently has seven national political parties. Three major ones—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—united to promulgate the 2015 constitution. Superficially, it appears that these parties still dominate the political landscape. However, dissatisfaction is growing. More and more people are beginning to believe that traditional parties can no longer solve the country's problems, yet credible new political alternatives have not emerged. Even dedicated local-level cadres of major parties—except those who benefit directly—are considering changing their voting preferences in the next election. This has created a political vacuum at the local level. Which political force will fill this gap?

Pessimism

Nepalis are getting increasingly pessimistic about the country’s future. A majority believe conditions will worsen rather than improve. Many have lost hope that economic growth will create jobs and opportunities. This growing pessimism is contributing to rising mental health issues, which in turn are causing a surge in crimes.

Constitution

The 2015 constitution played a crucial role in maintaining peace, but it is now under threat. Anti-constitution forces are gaining momentum. Meanwhile, the commitment of political parties to the constitution is wavering. If the constitution and current system come under attack, the public is unlikely to rally to protect them because they feel the constitution has failed to improve their lives. If people do not safeguard the constitution, political instability could worsen at any time, potentially endangering democracy itself.