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Hello from Kathmandu,

A probe committee formed to investigate the violent protests on Sept 8–9 has recommended that the Nepal government ban former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and five other high-level officials from traveling abroad.

The committee, led by former judge Gauri Bahadur Karki, made the recommendation following pressure from the interim government led by Sushila Karki. The other officials barred from leaving the country include former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, former Home Secretary Gokarna Mani Duwadi, Chief of the National Investigation Department Hutraj Thapa, and former Chief District Officer of Kathmandu Chhabi Lal Rijal.

The commission has also ruled that these individuals must seek permission to leave the Kathmandu Valley. The decision is based on the premise that, as individuals under investigation, they must remain accessible to the commission at any time.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Home Affairs has issued a controversial statement requesting that police refrain from arresting or prosecuting individuals involved in vandalism and arson of public and private property during the Sept 8–9 protests. This has drawn widespread criticism.

The ministry’s statement further noted that, since an inquiry commission has already been formed, government decisions will be based on the commission’s findings, and regular law enforcement mechanisms will not take action independently. Nevertheless, police have already arrested dozens in connection with the vandalism, including individuals involved in the killing of police officers and arson of police posts. There is growing pressure on the police to release these suspects.

Senior constitutional expert Bipin Adhikari has criticized the Home Ministry’s stance. “The police and prosecution in Nepal can and should act under criminal law independently of any independent commission’s timeline,” said Adhikari. “The commission’s report may inform broader accountability or reforms, including policing changes, but it does not halt criminal investigations.”

The National Human Rights Commission has urged the Nepal government to enhance national security and service delivery in view of the upcoming Dashain festival.

The CPN-UML convened its first secretariat meeting since the recent protests, during which the party strongly objected to the government’s reported decision to block former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli from traveling abroad. Speaking after the meeting, UML leader Pradeep Gyawali said, “We have taken serious note of the news that a recommendation has been made for the suspension of Oli's passport. We strongly object to this move.”

Gyawali accused the government of taking a path of political revenge. “It appears that the government is not only avoiding consultations with other political parties but is also moving toward a policy of prohibition,” he said. “There are clear signs that the government is attempting to suppress political parties, which is a matter of serious concern for us.”

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance has announced that it is investigating allegations that political leaders have been hoarding undeclared cash. In a statement, the ministry said the Department of Money Laundering Investigation is looking into the matter. This follows media reports that large sums of cash were found in the private residences of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal.

The ministry added that it is taking seriously the reports—circulating in both mainstream and social media—that cash was burned or discovered in various locations during the GenZ protests. In a key appointment, the government has named Ajaya Bhadra Khanal, a former journalist and editor of The Himalayan Times, as Chief Advisor to Prime Minister Sushila Karki. Govinda Narayan Timalsina has been appointed as Public Relations Officer. Meanwhile, GenZ protest groups are growing rapidly. One such group has released a statement declaring that they reject the current constitution. Like political parties, there are multiple GenZ protest groups driven by different political ideologies.

Kamal Dev Bhattarai

Editor 

As Nepal's interim government moves ahead with preparations for national elections scheduled for March 21 next year, former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli—dismissed following the violent protests on Sept 8–9—has asserted that the current government does not offer a solution to the ongoing national crisis.

Speaking at a public program organized by the youth wing of his party in Bhaktapur amid tight security, the former Prime Minister urged political parties to seek a resolution to the crisis through constitutional means. This suggests that his party, the CPN-UML, does not recognize the legitimacy of the interim government led by Sushila Karki.

Despite internal pressure within the party for Oli to step down, he appears determined to continue shaping the party’s future direction. Just prior to the protests, the CPN-UML endorsed a proposal allowing Oli to lead the party for a third consecutive term.

Although the statement issued by President Ram Chandra Poudel on Sept 12 noted that Sushila Karki was appointed prime minister with the consent of then-PM Oli, Oli now claims he had instead urged the President to find a constitutional solution. It is argued that appointing a non-parliamentarian as prime minister was a violation of the constitution.

Referring to the protests, Oli said, “Less than one percent of the population is trying to impose their will on the remaining 99 percent.” Since leaving the Nepal Army barracks after a 10-day stay, Oli—who also serves as the CPN-UML chairman, the second-largest party in the now-dissolved House of Representatives—has resumed political activity, holding meetings with party delegations and calling a secretariat meeting to discuss the political situation.

In a strong statement that is likely to irk both the current government and protestors, Oli claimed the interim government was not formed by the people’s mandate but rather “on the foundation of vandalism and arson.” He vowed to restore the country’s constitutional framework.

This indicates that the UML could support restoring the dissolved Parliament and forming a new government—an extremely difficult task, especially amid growing public distrust of political parties. On social media, Oli’s remarks have drawn widespread criticism. Government ministers have also expressed concern that such statements could inflame an already fragile situation and pose law and order risks. Oli has further criticized the government for failing to provide him with adequate security, saying he has received threats but that authorities are not taking them seriously. “I see people locating my house and planning to attack it. What is the government doing?” he said. About the Sept 9 violence, Oli said: “Had there been a five-minute delay, I would have been killed. There was a plan to injure Sher Bahadurjee and kill me—but they failed. I trusted the security, but the army said they couldn’t do anything.”

As protestors demand that Oli be held accountable for the killing of 19 youths during the protests in Kathmandu on Sept 8, he challenged the government to produce evidence that he had ordered the shootings. “If the government has any record of instructions I gave, I challenge them to bring it forward,” he said. 

He refused to take responsibility as the head of the government, while on the same day, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak resigned, accepting responsibility for the killings.

Hinting at the involvement of both domestic and international forces, Oli remarked, “I see how different powers are playing their games and trying to steer Nepal in their direction. The Nepali people must stay alert.” He has publicly claimed that foreign forces conspired to remove him due to his nationalist stance.

Amid reports that the government is seeking to block the passports of senior leaders, including Oli, the former PM stated, “Are we going to flee abroad and hand over the country to this government? No—we will build this country.” However, Oli has yet to acknowledge mistakes made during his time in office, including the controversial social media ban. He is now preparing for dialogue with major parties, including the Nepali Congress and the CPN (Maoist Center).

In efforts to create a favorable atmosphere for the upcoming election, President Ram Chandra Poudel is holding consultations with senior leaders of the main parties. On Sept 26, he held an extended meeting with CPN-UML leaders Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Poudel, and Shanker Pokhrel. UML leaders reportedly complained that the government is failing to ensure a conducive environment for elections.

Despite efforts, the three main parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center)—have yet to hold a joint meeting, leaving the future political course uncertain. Party leaders are increasingly suspicious that the current government may be planning to imprison them under the pretext of corruption.

In a significant political development following the recent GenZ protests, the CPN (Maoist Center) has dissolved its Central Committee and formed a special General Convention Organizing Committee aimed at electing a new leadership. This marks a bold move by the party to adapt to the shifting political landscape shaped by the youth-led protests on Sept 8–9.

A meeting of the party’s first Central Committee following the protests appointed party Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal as the coordinator of the newly formed convention organizing committee. “From today, I am no more the Chairman of the party but a coordinator of the organizing committee,” Dahal announced after the meeting.

The party plans to organize the general convention between December and January. However, despite the structural changes, Dahal is unlikely to relinquish his leadership position entirely, as second-rung leaders continue to insist there is no viable alternative to his leadership. Notably, Dahal rejected a proposal from senior leaders Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Janardhan Sharma urging him to step down.

In response to the growing demands from GenZ activists, the Maoist Center has become the first major political party to pledge structural reforms, including a decision to ensure 25 percent representation of GenZ members in all party committees—from the central level down to the grassroots. The party has attempted to portray itself as being aligned with the youth, reminding the public that it advocated for a directly elected executive president during the constitution drafting process in 2015.

Some Maoist leaders have expressed that the protests should have concluded after the government agreed to discuss the possibility of a directly elected executive head—an issue long championed by the Maoist party. During the protests, Maoist cadres were visibly active, with some involved in vandalizing private residences of leaders from the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML.

As an opposition force, the Maoist Center—along with the Rastriya Swatantra Party—tacitly supported the GenZ movement, further distinguishing itself from the other two major parties, NC and UML, which have been slower to respond. The party is now strategically attempting to rebrand itself as a responsive and reformist force in contrast to the perceived stagnation of its rivals. In contrast, both NC and UML remain in a state of disarray. Neither has yet convened official meetings in the presence of their top leaders—Sher Bahadur Deuba for NC and KP Sharma Oli for UML. Both parties have expressed conditional support for elections, insisting the government must first create an appropriate environment.

Within the NC, calls for leadership change are growing louder. Party President Deuba, recently discharged from hospital and now staying in a rented apartment, has remained silent on his future plans. Meanwhile, younger leaders like General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma have launched a signature campaign to convene a special general convention to elect new leadership. Thapa is also in discussions with senior leader Shekhar Koirala on charting a course toward party reform.

However, Deuba loyalists such as Purna Bahadur Khadka and Prakash Sharan Mahat have criticized Thapa’s campaign, arguing that it is inappropriate to demand leadership change while the party president is recovering from illness. The NC leadership remains cautious, even skeptical, of the GenZ protests, with some senior leaders viewing the movement as a conspiracy aimed at destabilizing both the party and democracy. This cautious stance may delay any clear decision on elections, leadership transition, or internal restructuring.

Meanwhile, in the CPN-UML, the push for leadership change remains muted. Though there are murmurs among some younger leaders, most senior leaders remain loyal to KP Sharma Oli. After relocating to a rented apartment in Bhaktapur, Oli has been meeting with senior party members and sister organizations. In a recent interaction with party-affiliated journalists, he hinted at an alleged conspiracy against him, citing his "nationalist position" as a possible motive.

Though some youth voices are calling for internal reform, no substantial pressure has been applied on Oli to step aside. A youth-led initiative dubbed the "party reform revolution" has emerged within UML, but it remains to be seen whether it can generate enough momentum to bring about real change. For now, only the Maoist Center appears to be actively adapting to the new political dynamics triggered by the GenZ movement. The other two major parties—NC and UML—remain trapped in internal power struggles and hesitant to embrace reform or acknowledge the political message sent by the youth protests.

Nepal’s interim Prime Minister, Sushila Karki, has outlined the priorities and limitations of her government, whose sole mandate is to conduct national elections within six months. Analysis of Karki’s address suggests her primary focus is to hold the elections. She also sent a clear message to Gen-Z protestors that the government cannot address demands that fall outside the current constitutional framework.

 In her first address to the nation since assuming office on September 12, PM Karki made it clear that a constitutional amendment will not take place before the national elections scheduled for March 5 next year.  She emphasized that issues raised by the Gen-Z movement—such as constitutional reform and changes to the system of governance—fall outside the jurisdiction of the interim government. "I want to request the Nepali people who are in favor of change, including the young generation, to participate in the upcoming elections and work to amend the constitution through the constitutional process," Karki said.

Her remarks come at a time when a section of protestors, backed by Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah, is demanding a shift to a directly elected presidential system, moving away from the current parliamentary setup. Shah, a vocal critic of mainstream political leaders, has been a prominent supporter of the protests.

Karki’s stance is expected to draw criticism from Shah's supporters. However, two major political parties—the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML—are likely to back her position that the constitution cannot and should not be amended before the elections. Meanwhile, the third-largest party, CPN (Maoist Centre), supports the idea of a directly elected president and a fully proportional electoral system but acknowledges that a constitutional amendment is not possible in the absence of a functioning legislature. 

The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have yet to hold formal party meetings in the presence of Sher Bahadur Deuba and KP Sharma Oli, However, both leaders are facing growing pressure from within their parties to step down, as grassroots members call for leadership change in line with the aspirations of the youth. 

While major political parties are not opposing the elections, they have called for improvements in law and order to ensure a conducive environment for voting. President Ram Chandra Poudel has instructed PM Karki not to introduce any ordinances beyond the scope of facilitating elections. Acting on a cabinet recommendation, he has issued an ordinance amending the Voter Registration Act, 2073 BS, and the government has already consulted with the Election Commission to streamline the electoral process. Karki reiterated the government's commitment to holding free and fair elections, urging all political parties to participate and represent the aspirations of the youth.

This marks the first time PM Karki has formally addressed political parties. Initially, she avoided including party representatives in the interim government, fearing backlash from Gen-Z protestors. Although the major parties opposed the dissolution of Parliament, they have accepted the upcoming elections—provided the government ensures a fair environment.

In an attempt to address protestors' demands, PM Karki announced that the government will take action against those responsible for the killing of 21 youths in a police firing incident on September 8. There is a mounting pressure to take action against then-Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and former Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak. To investigate the incident, the government has formed a judicial commission led by former judge Gauri Bahadur Karki, which has already begun its work. Local media reports suggest the government is considering imposing travel bans on top political leaders.

Corruption is another major issue raised by the Gen-Z protestors. PM Karki assured the public that her government would take steps to curb corruption. She revealed that preliminary investigations have already unearthed past corruption cases. However, with the existing Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) in place, establishing a parallel commission faces constitutional and legal hurdles.

PM Karki also highlighted the limitations of her government. With a six-month tenure, she said it is not possible to resolve all the issues raised by the movement. However, she assured that the government would make a sincere effort within its mandate. Regarding recent media reports about large amounts of cash found in the private residence of former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, she confirmed that an investigation is underway.

While some Gen-Z protestors are calling for drastic changes, including scrapping the constitution and taking tougher actions against traditional political leaders, the government is under pressure to maintain a balanced approach to avoid disrupting the election environment. 

The government finds itself in a challenging position—trying to satisfy the protestors’ demands for justice and accountability, while also ensuring cooperation from major political parties. While Gen-Z protestors demand action against those responsible for the September 8 shootings and past corruption, political parties are urging a proper investigation into the burning of key state institutions such as the Parliament building, the judiciary, and Singha Durbar.

President Poudel has also cautioned PM Karki not to take any actions that would violate the constitution. During the government formation process, Karki had initially proposed dissolving Parliament, but President Poudel rejected the suggestion. She later recommended dissolution again, which the President approved.

Meanwhile, the international community—particularly the United States and the European Union—has voiced strong support for the protection of Nepal’s 2015 constitution and the conduct of timely, free, and fair elections. 

A delegation from the European Union met with PM Karki on Thursday to reaffirm their commitment to Nepal’s democracy, rule of law, and human rights. It appears that India, the US, and the EU are aligned in their stance on upholding constitutional order and supporting timely elections in Nepal. Nepal’s next door neighbor China, however, is yet to officially welcome the formation of the new government.  

Although Prime Minster Karki made it clear in her address that government’s sole priority is to hold elections, uncertainty still looms large. Questions remain over whether elections can be conducted within the six-month timeframe as political parties are still raising the questions of their security. Law and order remain a major concerns, with numerous police posts destroyed and over 8000 prisoners at large. Additionally, fears are growing that country’s economy may take a further hit, as the private sector was heavily targeted during the protests. 

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s recent visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit and the Victory Day Parade has drawn significant attention in political and strategic circles.

Following Oli’s meeting with President Xi Jinping, China issued a news release claiming that Nepal supported the Global Security Initiative (GSI), a claim quickly dismissed by Nepali officials. Foreign Secretary Amrit Rai clarified to the media that no such agreement had been reached. 

Criticism also emerged over Oli’s participation in the Victory Day Parade, with some arguing it could upset Japan, Nepal’s long-standing development partner. However, Oli’s decision to raise the Lipulekh issue with Chinese President Xi has been well received at home. UML leaders are already seeking to capitalize on this move, framing it as a matter of “nationalism” ahead of upcoming elections.

At the SCO, Nepal expressed its willingness to become a full member, providing Oli with the opportunity to engage directly with leaders from China, Russia, India, and beyond. During the summit, Oli stated that Nepal supports the Global Governance Initiative (GGI), a new proposal by Xi. On broader security strategies such as the GSI, Nepal has reiterated its consistent position: it will not join any military or strategic alliance.

Attention is now turning to Prime Minister Oli’s upcoming visit to India, likely at the end of this month, though the trip may be delayed. As in Beijing, Oli is expected to raise the Lipulekh issue with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The timing is significant as the India-China agreement on Lipulekh pass has created a favorable environment for Oli to raise the matter with both neighbors. His handling of this issue in New Delhi will be closely watched at home.

To prevent possible misunderstandings with coalition partner Nepali Congress (NC), Oli included senior NC leader Purna Bahadur Khadka in his China delegation. As a result, NC leaders have remained largely silent on controversies surrounding the GSI and other issues. Over recent months, NC’s criticism of China has softened, reflecting a gradual rapprochement after a period of strained ties between 2015 and 2020.

Meanwhile, CPN (Maoist Center) Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal reiterated that the border dispute with India should be resolved through diplomatic talks. 

Within Oli’s CPN-UML, preparations are underway for the party’s statute convention starting Friday. Speculation is growing over whether the party will reconsider former President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s membership. While Oli and the leadership appear unwilling to reinstate her, senior leaders like Surendra Pandey and Yubaraj Gyawali have expressed support for her return. 

In Parliament, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) have continued their boycott for over 100 days, demanding a high-level panel to probe into visit visa corruption. Although the Maoist Center initially joined their protest, it later compromised with ruling parties, leaving RSP and RPP with limited leverage due to their smaller numbers.

Within the CPN (Maoist Center), senior leader Janardhan Sharma is under pressure after questioning party chairperson Dahal’s leadership. He has also been targeted by a deepfake video alleging he is working at Oli’s behest, a claim he blames on Dahal’s inner circle. Deepfakes are increasingly troubling Nepali politics: RSP Vice-chair Swarnim Wagle has also filed a case at the cyber bureau, saying he too has been victimized.

Party disputes remain unresolved within the RPP, where tensions between president Rajendra Lingden and senior leader Dhawal Shumsher Rana have delayed the party’s central committee meeting. The conflict intensified after Lingden expelled several leaders aligned with Rana.

In legislative developments, the National Assembly has finally endorsed the long-debated Federal Civil Service Bill after years of disagreements between government and opposition. Separately, Nepal’s Immigration Department has announced a new digital tracking system for foreign tourists, beginning Sept 17. Visitors staying in star hotels will be required to register their personal details via a mobile app.

Tourism numbers continue to rebound. In August 2025, Nepal welcomed 88,680 tourists—a 22 percent increase compared to last year. India topped the list with 35,505 visitors, followed by China (7,533), the US (6,068), Sri Lanka (5,956), and Bangladesh (4,262). From January to August 2025, total arrivals reached 736,562.

Another significant government move this week came in the digital sphere. The Cabinet has decided to ban social media platforms that have not registered in Nepal. According to the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, platforms like Facebook face restrictions for failing to comply with registration requirements. 

The decision follows a Supreme Court writ of mandamus directing the regulation of such platforms. Minister Prithvi Subba Gurung’s secretariat confirmed that the ministry will now enforce the ban. Experts warn the decision could disrupt content creators and businesses, while also undermining Nepal’s broader digital aspirations.

In the financial sector, Nepal’s 10 largest commercial banks have agreed to undergo international audits, with findings to be made public—a long-standing demand of the International Monetary Fund to address bad loan practices. The Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) will ensure an in-depth inspection of these banks.

The NRB has also introduced stricter rules on the use of CSR funds, requiring banks and financial institutions to channel them exclusively toward poverty alleviation and priority sectors.

In law enforcement, police have busted a human trafficking ring that used to smuggle Nepalis to India to sell their kidneys. The ringleader, Shyam Krishna Bhandari, and his associate have been arrested. Victims were reportedly lured from districts including Sindhupalchok, Kavre, Sindhuli, Nuwakot, and Dhading.

Finally, Nepal has achieved a new milestone in energy exports. According to Energy Minister Deepak Khadka, the country is now exporting over 1,130 MW daily to India and Bangladesh. If this trend continues, annual earnings could exceed Rs 86.38bn.

China on Wednesday held a military parade in central Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of its victory in World War II, where Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli attended alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.

The parade showcased hundreds of advanced weapons and 10,000 troops, underscoring China’s growing military might. Since becoming president, Xi Jinping has taken major steps to modernize the People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest standing army. The event drew 26 heads of state and government, high-level representatives from various countries, and leaders of international and regional organizations, with Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan prominently represented.

According to Xinhua, this was the first military parade since China embarked on its “new journey” of modernization under Xi. Beijing has set 2035 as its target year to essentially complete modernization. The parade was followed by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit and Xi’s bilateral talks with Russia, North Korea, and other invitees.

China’s visible support for Russia and its partners is expected to complicate possible negotiations between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv to end the war in Ukraine. From the SCO summit to the victory parade, Beijing succeeded in bringing together countries whose relations with the US are already strained, many of whom were targets of Donald Trump’s tariff wars. Observers say this signals the weakening of the US-led order and the rise of a China-centered alternative.

Reacting to the presence of Putin and Kim in Beijing, Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un as you conspire against the United States of America.” On Aug 15, Trump and Putin had met in Alaska to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine war, but no progress has been made since. In the same meeting, Trump also expressed interest in meeting Kim again, recalling their earlier encounters during his previous term.

China’s challenge to the US-led international system has become sharper since Trump began his second term as president. Soon after returning to the White House, Trump cut large portions of US aid to poor countries in health, education, and agriculture. Many in the Global South, facing resource gaps, have turned to China for assistance. While Beijing has not explicitly pledged to fill the void, it has gradually stepped in, drawing these countries closer.

The Trump administration believes it can handle Russia, China, and others individually, abandoning the coalition-based approach of former president Joe Biden. In practice, this has weakened US alliances. Trump has threatened to withhold security guarantees and imposed heavy tariffs even on close partners, pushing some to seek alternatives in Beijing. India, for example, once a key counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific, was hit with a 50 percent tariff. As a result, India-US relations have nosedived, and New Delhi is now cautiously expanding trade ties with Beijing after easing border tensions.

Meanwhile, China, which is embroiled in tariff disputes with Washington since Trump’s first term, has been deepening outreach to neighboring states and Africa. Alongside its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it has rolled out new frameworks such as the Global Security Initiative, Global Civilizational Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and now the proposed Global Governance Initiative. These are presented as alternatives to the US-led order, seeking broader international support.

At the SCO summit, both China and Russia openly challenged the US-led order. In his address, Xi declared that the world had entered a “new period of turbulence and transformation,” adding that global governance stood at a crossroads. “History tells us that in difficult times, we must uphold peaceful coexistence, strengthen confidence in win-win cooperation, and advance in line with the trend of history,” Xi said, introducing his Global Governance Initiative as a step toward a more equitable world system and a “shared future for humanity.” Russia, for its part, has long been advocating for a new order to rival the existing one.

For Nepal, Oli’s participation in both the SCO summit and the military parade reflects deepening ties with China. During his earlier tenure, he signed a series of strategic agreements with Beijing, including a BRI framework. His latest visit will likely strengthen perceptions of him as a pro-China leader in New Delhi and Western capitals, raising questions about Nepal’s ability to maintain balanced relations with all major powers.

Domestically, Oli will face pressure to justify his presence at China’s victory parade while still upholding Nepal’s policy of neutrality and non-alignment. He took a careful step this time by including senior Nepali Congress leaders and ministers in his delegation. At the same time, his upcoming visit to India will test his ability to project balance and assure critics that Nepal is not tilting toward any single power.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is all set to visit China this week to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, marking an important step in Nepal’s high-level diplomatic engagement with its two powerful neighbors—India and China.

This visit comes at a delicate juncture. Concerns in Kathmandu are growing over a renewed India-China agreement on trade through the disputed Lipulekh Pass. Against this backdrop, the SCO summit provides Oli not just a platform to engage with regional powers but also an opportunity to assert Nepal’s interests amid rising geopolitical complexities. Alongside attending the summit’s side events, Oli is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which will be his second and third meetings with them respectively since assuming office for the third time in July 2024.

Oli’s foreign outreach has been consistent. In December last year, he visited China to finalize a framework agreement on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), one of Beijing’s top priorities in its engagement with Nepal. Similarly, his talks with Modi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and the recent BIMSTEC meeting in Thailand highlight the frequency of high-level interactions. Yet, this week’s meetings are under particular scrutiny, as concerns over Lipulekh have resurfaced. On Aug 19,  India and China agreed to resume trade through the territory that Nepal claims as its own.

While Beijing has maintained a largely reserved stance, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi merely assuring that the India-China deal was not “targeted at any third country”, Nepal has been more vocal. Government spokesperson Prithvi Subba Gurung confirmed that Kathmandu will raise the issue directly with both Xi and Modi. Meanwhile, Chinese think tanks argue that the dispute should be settled bilaterally between Nepal and India.

The timing of this trip also underscores a shift in Oli’s priorities—from domestic politics to foreign affairs. After China, he is expected to travel to India next month and later attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York in mid-September. Adding to this momentum, Vietnam’s Vice-president visited Nepal this week, exploring new avenues of cooperation in trade, education, and tourism, a sign that Nepal is quietly broadening its international engagements beyond its immediate neighborhood.

Domestically, Oli continues to stand on firm political ground. His main coalition partner, the Nepali Congress (NC), has remained supportive, allowing him to sideline opposition voices such as the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa, however, has urged Oli to refrain from repeatedly claiming he will eventually hand over power to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba—a gesture seen by many as unnecessary flattery.

Within his own party, Oli maintains an even tighter grip. The CPN-UML is preparing for a statute convention that could abolish both the 70-year age limit and the two-term leadership cap, moves widely viewed as paving the way for Oli’s indefinite leadership. At the same time, former President Bidya Devi Bhandari has re-emerged, opening a new office and holding political meetings. While Oli has downplayed her return to active politics, senior UML leaders like Ishwar Pokhrel appear supportive, whereas others such as Surendra Pandey and Yubaraj Gyawali remain cautious.

Interestingly, the Lipulekh controversy—once a dominant political issue—has lost much of its noise. Beyond the CPN (Maoist Center), RSP, and a few fringe left parties, most mainstream actors including NC and UML have chosen silence. This restraint is a stark contrast to earlier years when nationalist rhetoric dominated political discourse. Oli too has avoided inflammatory remarks, perhaps to preserve diplomatic decorum ahead of his meetings in China and India.

At the same time, the Maoist Center is preparing a nationwide campaign to strengthen its base ahead of local and national elections, though Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s attempts to topple the government appear ineffective. His tensions with senior leader Janardhan Sharma also persist.

Meanwhile, developments within Parliament continue. Ishwari Neupane of the NC has been elected chair of the State Affairs and Good Governance Committee, following the resignation of Ram Hari Khatiwada over his alleged involvement in document tampering related to cooling-off period provision in the Federal Civil Service Bill.

Outside Parliament, public discontent remains visible. Teachers have returned to the streets demanding better job security, pensions, and reforms in the education bill. The passage of the bill has been delayed due to disputes between NC and UML. 

Adding to these domestic challenges, sugarcane farmers have reignited their agitation over delayed subsidies and unpaid dues from mills. Beginning Aug 24, farmers from the Tarai staged a sit-in at Maitighar Mandala in Kathmandu, demanding full payment of a long-promised Rs 70 per quintal subsidy—half of which was recently slashed to Rs 35 due to budget shortages. They are also pushing for fairer valuation, removal of VAT, and inclusion in price-setting decisions.

Beyond politics and protests, policy issues continue to surface. After last year’s rhino census was postponed due to lack of funds, Nepal will this year conduct both rhino and tiger counts with support from the Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation. On the agricultural front, paddy planting remains incomplete even as August draws to a close. Of the 1,376,466 hectares suitable for cultivation, 1,306,293 hectares (about 94 percent) have been planted, leaving 70,176 hectares still fallow.

Public health concerns are also mounting. The National Public Health Laboratory has confirmed cholera cases in Birgunj, with eight of ten tested samples returning positive. The Birgunj Metropolitan Health Division reported that 171 patients suffering from cholera and diarrhea have been treated and discharged, though results from two pending samples are awaited.

Finally, in a culturally significant ruling, the Supreme Court has declared that naked Hindu ascetics, known as Naga sadhus, are not obliged to wear clothes when visiting temples. The court affirmed that their centuries-old tradition of nudity is not obscenity, a decision warmly welcomed by the ash-smeared, dreadlocked devotees of Lord Shiva.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli is travelling to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, an intergovernmental regional body founded in 2001 in Shanghai. Nepal, currently a dialogue partner, will participate in the summit scheduled for Aug 31–Sept 1 in Tianjin, China.

On the sidelines, Oli is expected to hold bilateral meetings with SCO leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This year’s SCO summit brings together Modi, Xi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a time when US-India ties have soured over tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Western countries will be closely watching as three major non-Western powers meet to discuss bilateral, regional, and global issues.

For Oli, however, the Lipulekh dispute is likely to dominate his agenda. India and China recently agreed to resume trade through the Lipulekh pass, a territory disputed between Nepal and India, placing Oli under pressure to raise the issue with both leaders. Although Nepal is reported to have sent diplomatic notes to New Delhi and Beijing expressing its displeasure, the government has not made any official statement, and Oli himself has remained silent on the matter.

Beyond the dispute, Nepal is lobbying to upgrade its status from dialogue partner to full SCO membership. At a time when both SAARC and BIMSTEC are becoming ineffective, SCO could be a new regional platform to advance its voices in the global arena. Government sources suggest the summit may decide on granting membership to Nepal and other applicants. Full membership would allow Nepal to deepen cooperation in trade, transit, energy, agriculture, investment, security, and cultural exchanges with SCO members. 

Nepal became a dialogue partner in March 2016 after signing an MoU with the SCO Secretariat, nearly a decade after applying for the status in 2007. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the MoU defines scope of Nepal’s engagement with SCO in the field of trade, transit and investment, energy, agriculture, small and medium business, security issues, and legal and custom affairs, among others. Since 2016, Nepal has participated in multiple SCO meetings, including a briefing for dialogue partners in April this year attended by Nepal’s embassy representatives.

The Tianjin summit, expected to be the largest in SCO’s history, will host leaders from over 20 countries and 10 international organizations. According to Xinhua, the summit will issue declarations marking the 80th anniversary of the UN and the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War, and adopt outcome documents on security, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange.

The SCO traces its roots to the 1996 “Shanghai Five” mechanism, when China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan sought to resolve border security issues after the Cold War. Over the past two decades, trade among SCO members has grown nearly 100-fold, with their share of global trade rising from 5.4 percent in 2001 to 17.5 percent in 2020.

This year’s attendees include Russian President Putin, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Indian Prime Minister Modi, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh.

Also attending are Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzou, Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymuhamedov, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, Lao President Thongloun Sisoulith, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

Currently, the SCO has 10 full members—Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan and Mongolia hold observer status, while 14 countries, including Nepal, are dialogue partners.

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Oli will also take part in the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s war on resistance against Japanese aggression and world anti-fascist war. PM Oli will address the SCO plus Summit in Tianjin on 1 September. Oli will also meet Chinese Prime Minister Han Zheng and vice president on September 2. Nepali Congress leader Purna Bahadur Khadka and some ministers are accompanying PM Oli.