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Who will be the next prime minister after the Nov 20 elections? The answer depends on whom you ask. But one thing is sure: one of the old faces will take charge of the country. If you talk to CPN (Maoist Center) leaders, they explain why the party leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal is a natural candidate for the top job. They say Dahal had backed Sher Bahadur Deuba’s prime ministerial bid in July 2021 and it is time for the Nepali Congress to return the favor. The NC, however, is a divided house. It is not entirely keen on handing over the prime minister’s role to Dahal. Deuba’s core supporters wish for his continuation as prime minister after the elections. They argue that the largest party should lead the government in the parliamentary system. NC leader Min Bahadur Bishokarma says there has yet to be an agreement on post-election power-sharing. “The party may lead the government with a condition of transfer of power to Dahal after a certain period.” The NC, in its election manifesto unveiled on Oct 29, has mentioned that the post-election government will be formed under its leadership. Meanwhile, the main opposition, CPN-UML, has already announced its chair KP Sharma Oli as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. The main opposition is contesting the elections alone in most constituencies against the five-party alliance of NC, Maoists, Unified Socialist, Janata Samajbadi Party and Rastriya Janamorcha. Though the UML’s chances of emerging victorious over the alliance appear slim, its leaders are still hopeful. Since there won’t be one runaway winner, the formation of the next government will be based on power sharing, an issue that appears more complex than it appears. In Nepal, power-sharing agreements rarely take place based on shared ideology or vision among parties, and as a result, they are often fickle. As major parties have a history of forming and breaking alliances, there is no guarantee that Nepal will have a stable government after the elections. If there is no crack in the ruling five-party alliance, chances are the Maoist party will drive a hard bargain with the NC to clinch the prime ministerial seat. Maoist leader Dahal has publicly announced that he would like to be at the helm of power to implement his vision of economic policy. For him to become the next prime minister, the role of CPN (Unified Socialist), another party in the ruling alliance, will be instrumental. Unified Socialist chair Madhav Kumar Nepal has already tapped Dahal as the next prime minister. On October 18, Nepal announced at a public function, which was also attended by Deuba, that Dahal would lead the next government. Nepal and Dahal are closer to each other, and many see the prospect of their parties unifying after the elections. What will be Congress’s position on Dahal’s claim to the seat of the executive is not entirely clear so far. However, a senior Maoist leader close to Dahal is hopeful that Deuba will concede. “He [Deuba] has not made any promises, but he is also not batting away the idea of handing over the premiership to Chairman Dahal.” The Maoist leader suspects that Deuba is keeping silent so as not to rile up his own party leaders. Chances are that Dahal and Deuba may have reached a gentleman’s agreement on power-sharing when their parties decide to enter the electoral alliance. Deuba will likely try to convince Dahal into splitting the five-year government tenure and taking turns to lead the country. But Congress leader Nainsingh Mahar is not wholly convinced that Dahal will agree to the arrangement. “I believe Dahal will claim for unconditional role of a prime minister. If that doesn’t happen, he will likely break the alliance.” Mahar says Deuba also faces the challenge of convincing his own party leaders after the elections.  Inside the Congress, there is a strong opposition against the idea of the party relinquishing the government leadership to the Maoist party. To take a final call on power-sharing, some leaders say Deuba is eagerly waiting for the election results. If the vote outcome allows the NC to form a coalition government without the support of the Maoist Center, the situation will be entirely different. In such a scenario, the Congress will likely seek support from the Madhes-based parties and the Unified Socialist to form the next government. But if the Maoist party, like now, emerges as a decisive factor, Deuba will have to agree to hand over the power to Dahal. To prevent the possible rise of the left alliance, some political analysts say, this is the only way forward for Deuba and his party. If Dahal were to become the next prime minister, Congress would likely claim some critical ministries, as well as the post of parliament speaker. After the Constituent Assembly elections, candidates from left parties have successively become the speaker. The NC, for once, wants to head the lower house, particularly after former Speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota, from the Maoist party, took many controversial moves while leading the lower house, including his roles in splitting up the UML and delaying the House endorsement of the Millennium Challenge Corporation Nepal Compact. Though the post of parliament speaker is supposed to be impartial, Nepali parties have been using it to serve their own political interests. The Unified Socialist is also likely to make a bid for some important ministries and positions of influence in the power-sharing negotiations based on how the party figures in the government formation process. As for other fringe parties in the five-party alliance, they will most likely settle for small ministries and ceremonial positions. Power-sharing in seven provinces is another critical factor that could also affect the federal government configuration. And in case the five-party alliance disintegrates, the role of UML will be crucial for the formation of the next government. As the party has already projected Oli as a prime minister, it will be hard for the UML to hand over the government leadership to other parties. Some UML leaders are already predicting that squabbling in the ruling alliance over power-sharing will, one way or another, help their party. They are even hopeful about securing the majority seats, on the account of a poor vote transfer among the alliance. However, other leaders have made a more modest projection of securing 70 of the 275. Inside the NC, there are two projections. Leaders close to Deuba say the party is likely to win around 100 seats (70 in first-past-the-post voting system and 40 in proportional representation), but leaders from the anti-establishment camp say they will likely secure only around 90 seats, owing to the intra-party dissatisfaction. The Maoist party, meanwhile, expects to win at least 50 seats. The major parties could also see their voter base chipped away by the recent popularity of independent candidates. No matter which party forms the next government, Nepal will not have political stability for another five years. There is no clear winner in the electoral race of many political alliances based on experience rather than a shared vision for the country. The next five years will likely continue to see frequent government changes and political crises.

Major political parties in their election manifestos have mentioned their respective visions on the foreign policy they want to implement if they get the mandate to form a new government after the Nov 20 elections. In essence, there are no fundamental differences in their foreign policy. It’s only that some parties are more vocal on some issues, where others are implicit. There is a similar view among parties that Nepal should not become a part of any military alliances and should stick to the non-alignment policy. They also wish to adopt a balanced relationship with India and China. In its election manifesto, the NC has pledged to adopt an independent and balanced foreign policy in line with the UN charter, the country’s long-standing non-alignment policy, and Panchasheel. Similarly, the party has opposed the policy of joining any military alliances and blocs. The document also talks about bolstering regional organizations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Organization (SAARC) and The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). And, in a veiled reference to China’s Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI), the party’s manifesto states that priority will be given to economic diplomacy with a preference for grants rather than commercial loans.  On the BRI, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, time and again, has given a message to China that it wants grants to construct infrastructure projects and does not favor commercial loans. The party further states that it would take a decisive step to resolve the existing border disputes with India and China, but there is no specific mention of the map issued by Nepal, which led to a falling out between Nepal and India.  The ruling party also mentions that Nepali soil will not be allowed to use against any neighboring countries. However, it remains silent about the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI). The grand old party also talks about the diversification of Nepal’s trade and transit policy. The main opposition CPN-UML’s election manifesto, meanwhile, states that the party would conduct an independent and balanced relationship with the international community with priority given to neighboring countries. It says that it would adopt a policy of amity with all, enmity with none, and a relationship based on sovereign equality. Our foreign policy will be based on the UN charter, the principle of Pachasheel, mutual benefits and respect, international commitment/responsibility, and justice, the document says, national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence will be strengthened.    On the issue of borders, the UML says in its manifesto that Nepali territories in Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani, as well as other international borders will be protected.   And in a reference to the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty signed with India, the party says all treaties will be reviewed and amended to protect Nepal’s welfare and new treaties will be signed based on necessity. CPN (Maoist Center) has explained in detail the foreign policy it wants to implement if the government is formed under its leadership. Considering the current geopolitical situation, friendly and proximate relationships will be maintained with both neighbors, the party’s document says. It goes on to state that Nepal will be freed from all sorts of foreign military activities and will be declared a zone of peace.  Like the NC and the UML, the Maoists have also pledged that Nepal will not become a part of any bilateral and multilateral military alliances.  And on the issue of border dispute, the party has said that open borders with India shall be controlled and regulated. The party has clearly stated that the Peace and Friendship Treaty of 1950, the Tripartite Agreement of 1947, and other treaties related to trade and treaties with India should be reviewed and if necessary canceled. It has also pledged to address the problem of Gorkha soldiers. The pro-monarchy party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, has also proposed reinstating the zone of peace proposal, which was introduced by King Birendra in the 1970s. The party also talks about adopting a balanced foreign policy based on non-alignment and Panchasheel. With the neighboring countries, the party has vowed equidistance policy. It has also vowed to scrap all unequal treaties signed with other countries. CPN (Unified Socialist), a member in the five-party coalition, in its election manifesto, says that it wants to establish a cordial relationship with neighboring countries based on international law, the UN Charter, Panchasheel, and policy of non-interference. But unlike other parties, the Unified Socialist’s election manifesto does not talk about border disputes and unequal treaties.

US President Joe Biden unveiled a new national security strategy last week. The document talks about closely working with South Asian partners. It states: “No region will be of more significance to the world and to everyday Americans than the Indo-Pacific. As we work with South Asian regional partners to address climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China] coercive behavior, we will promote prosperity and economic connectivity across the Indian Ocean region.” The strategy further states that competition with China is most pronounced in the Indo-Pacific, but it is also increasingly global. “Many of our allies and partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific, stand on the frontlines of the PRC’s coercion and are rightly determined to seek to ensure their own autonomy, security, and prosperity.” So what will be the implications for Nepal as this region is primed to become an epicenter of the US-China contestation? Sanjaya Upadhya, Washington-based foreign policy expert, says the document describes China as the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that objective. “Clearly, this assertion takes the US-China rivalry to a new level. As Washington would have the prerogative of defining what behavior on the part of Beijing is ‘coercive’, Nepal could expect further US assertiveness vis-à-vis our general foreign policy in the period ahead,” he says. The ongoing National People’s Congress of China has indicated how regime security would be an even more categorical concern for Beijing going forward. “In such a situation,” says Upadhya, “Nepal can be expected to experience a stiffer tug-of-war between the two global powers.” Don McLain Gill, Manila-based geopolitical analyst, says the new document highlights two important aspects of US foreign policy. “The first is the realization that China, and no other state, serves as the biggest challenge to the established rules-based order due to its global ambitions and its growing material capacity to back those very ambitions,” he says. “The second realization is the need for the US to pay more attention to the evolving dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region, given its position at the center stage of global geopolitics and geo-economics.” Within the greater Indo-Pacific, Gill reckons South Asia serves as an important sub-region, given China’s increasing strategic footprints and the consequences that have occurred due to its economic engagements that lack transparency and accountability. With a desire to promote a rules-based and fair developmental agenda, South Asian states, including Nepal, may be able to benefit from the desire of the US and other key democratic powers like India and Japan to forge an inclusive cooperative framework that will offer them a more sustainable alternative for growth, development and security. “While similar initiatives have been suggested in the past by the US, the need to effectively coordinate and plan practically based on domestic and external realities is necessary in order to forge a long-term and beneficial roadmap for the region,” adds Gill.

Since 2013, Nepali airlines have been banned from flying into Europe for failing to keep up with the international air safety protocols. The decision to blacklist Nepali airlines from entering the European skies was taken after a series of plane crashes that occurred particularly in 2010, 2011 and 2012.  Nepal has since been urging the European Commission to delist its airlines from its blacklist stating that there has been a substantial improvement in aviation safety. Now, Nepali officials seem hopeful that the commission will lift the ban soon.  In the first week of October, a three-member technical team from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency visited Nepal to discuss the aviation safety issue. Besides holding discussions with the officials from Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN), the team also visited some private airlines companies.  The team is set to seek further clarification from CAAN on some issues before submitting its report to the commission, which will then take a final call on whether to lift the ban. Officials in Nepal are buoyed from their talks with the technical team. Jagannath Niraula, spokesperson for CAAN, says the EU representatives appreciated the progress made by Nepal in the areas of aviation security.  “This time we are 99 precent optimistic that the commission will remove us from its blacklist and our airlines can fly to European skies which will be a big boost to our aviation industry.”   The audit reports show that Nepal has indeed made improvements in aviation safety. In April, a report by the Universal Safety Oversight Audit Program, under International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), showed that Nepal’s air safety ratings have improved significantly, achieving a 70.1 percent score, which was 66.76 percent in 2017. The score was eight percent more than the global average of 67.2 percent. Audits were conducted in 2009, 2016 and 2017 respectively.  According to CAAN, Nepal made significant progress in its oversight capability since the initial audit of 2009.  In 2018, ICAO awarded Nepal with Council President Certificate in recognition of its achievement in resolving its safety oversight deficiencies and implementing other international safety standards. CAAN officials have since been doubling down on their effort to remove Nepali airlines from the EU blacklist.  But there is one remaining issue that remains unresolved. Despite improvements in air safety, CAAN has failed to make institutional reforms. Splitting CAAN into two entities, one a regulator and the other a service provider, is a long due issue. A bill in this regard is pending in Parliament and political parties have not prioritized the bill.  Some fear the failure to break up CAAN could delay the delisting process. But CAAN officials, by and large, seem confident that the improvement made in aviation security is good enough for the EU to delist Nepali airlines from its blacklist. CAAN’s Aviation Security Report 2021 states that in the past 10 years, fatalities related to airplanes have registered a continuous steep drop, though the same for helicopter accidents has increased between 2011 and 2021.  During the period of 2011 and 2020, the highest number of plane accidents was recorded in 2016. There were four airline accidents that year. Likewise, the highest number of fatalities was observed in 2012 when 34 lives were lost. In 2020, there was one accident without any fatalities.  The improvement in aviation safety was in large due to the four-year Nepal Aviation Safety Plan implemented by CAAN in 2018. The plan was in line with the Global Aviation Safety Plan and Regional Aviation Safety Plan, which identified several areas of safety and took measures to address them. 

“... I remember meeting a woman on our way to Gorkha, who approached BRB suddenly and scolded him, ‘you silly, Baburam! Why did you leave the party and Parliament when you were going to be the country’s next President!’ There were also people who predicted that BRB would henceforth be reduced to a mere Marxist intellectual.”  This is an excerpt from the book, ‘Hisila: From Revolutionary to First Lady,’ penned by Hisila Yami, former Maoist party leader and the spouse of ex-prime minister Baburam Bhattarai.   “As for me, I was glad that BRB had finally left Prachanda, who had always allied with or attacked BRB for his own personal motives and political gains,” writes Yami in her 2021 political memoir.  It’s been more than seven years since Bhattarai ended his 30-year-old relationship with the Maoist chair, Pushpa Kamal Dahal. On 26 September 2015, six days after the promulgation of the new constitution, Bhattarai announced at a press conference that he was leaving the Maoist party.  At the time, Bhattarai had described his old party as a ‘house with a red sticker,’ which is to say irrelevant in the changed political context. He also went on to allege Dahal of indulging in corruption and making alliances with “regressive leaders” like KP Oli of the CPN-UML.  But, as the saying goes, politics makes strange bedfellows. Bhattarai has now resorted to taking Dahal’s side in order to remain relevant in national politics. He has handed over his constituency (Gorkha-2) to Dahal despite his high prospects of winning the elections.  After Dahal fielded his candidacy on October 7 for the upcoming parliamentary elections, Bhattarai said: “I am extremely happy to hand over my electrical constituency to a towering leader like Dahal, which is an historic opportunity for the voters of this district.”  In fact, it was Bhattarai who convinced Dahal to contest the polls from Gorkha, one of the heartlands of Maoist insurgency, where the party made gains in the local elections this past May. After severing ties with Dahal, Bhattarai, who had made his name in the party as the Maoist ideologue, tried to form a new political party. On 12 June 2016, he launched Naya Shakti. He went on a nationwide tour to promote his new party, to no avail. The party met a humiliating defeat in the 2017 elections. Bhattarai was the only leader to win a seat in the federal parliament from Gorkha-2, which was largely due to his popularity in his home district.   Ever since, Bhattarai has tried rather unsuccessfully to form and reform several parties.  Since 2015, Maoist chair Dahal, too, has made some major political departures to rebrand the image of his old party, one of former guerillas, not well-versed in the ways of mainstream politicking.    The popularity of the Maoist party seen right after it joined the peace process in 2006 was short-lived. So Dahal decided to merge his party with the UML in 2018 to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). But this new party split in 2021, thus the UML and Maoist were revived.  “We both failed in all our news experiments that we did after the promulgation of the new constitution. So we decided to come together to protect the achievements made by the people’s war,” Dahal said at a public program on September 24.  “We recalled the days of the people’s war and reached a conclusion that we two should come together to develop a model of socialism in Nepal.”   Dahal repeated the same thing after filing his candidacy from Gorkha. According to some Maoist leaders, Bhattarai has almost joined the mother party. They say the official announcement could be made after the November 20 elections.  So what led Bhattarai to give up electoral politics at least for now and rejoin his old comrades?  Some say Bhattarai’s influence and image took a serious hit after quitting the Maoist party. This became evident when his new party did not fare well in the 2017 elections.   On 6 May 2019, Bhattarai’s Naya Shakti united with the Federal Socialist Forum, a Madhes-based party led by Upendra Yadav. But the power tussle between Bhattarai and Yadav led to the party split in 2022.  A leader close to Bhattarai says the party breakup left the latter frustrated. It was around the same time some Maoist leaders started urging Bhattarai to mend fences with Dahal and rejoin the old party. After several rounds of talks with Dahal, say some Maoist leaders, Bhattarai has agreed to return to his old party.  It is said that Dahal has agreed to Bhattarai’s condition that he would be allowed to manage some of his leaders and cadres in the Maoist party. One of Bhattarai’s immediate goals is to elevate his daughter Manushi Yami Bhattarai in the party. A JNU graduate, Manushi was involved in student politics from the Maoist party. She is contesting the November 20 parliamentary elections from Kathmandu-7 as a Maoist candidate.  Since Bhattarai is supporting Dahal in Gorkha, he expects reciprocity from the Maoist party to ensure his daughter’s victory in Kathmandu.  Meanwhile, Dahal reckons this is a good time to have his old comrade back to his fold, given he is not pleased with his current senior leaders.   It is said that Dahal is frustrated by the behavior of leaders, such as Narayan Kaji Shrestha, Janardhan Sharma and Barsha Man Pun. These leaders, a Maoist leader says, were opposing and questioning every decision taken by the party leadership, including the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and bill to amend the Citizenship Act. “Dahal wants a senior leader by his side. Bhattarai, meanwhile, has a shot at fulfilling his goal of becoming an influential politician if he were to rejoin the Maoist party,” says the leader.  For a long time, Bhattarai had served as Dahal’s deputy in the Maoist party, which he is likely to retain if he rejoins the Maoist party.  Madhu Sudan Panthi, a senior journalist who has closely followed Dahal-Bhattarai relations, says it remains to be seen how the rekindled relationship between the two leaders will pan out.   “During the insurgency the two leaders were rarely on the same page,” he says. “Though they were in the same party, there was always a clash of personality, popularity and domination.”  Most significantly, Bhattarai and Dahal had divergent opinions on the peace process and constitution drafting process. Bhattarai always stood in favor of drafting a new constitution from the elected Constituent Assembly (CA) while the other leaders in the party, including Mohan Baidya, were advocates of an urban revolt to capture the power.  All the while, Dahal, as the party’s supreme leader, had remained in the fence. Bhattarai’s line prevailed in the end, which propelled his image within the party and in the public eye.  In her memoir, Yami describes the relationship between Bhattarai and Dahal as at times complementary and at others contradictory.  “Basically, Prachanda was a pragmatist and BRB was an idealist. They were like two bands of the same river,” she writes. But after remaining apart for seven years, the two leaders seem to be taking a less confrontational and more reconciliatory approach.  Some analysts say since Bhattarai will not be in the parliament, he will not be in the race to become prime minister, much to Dahal’s respite.  Bhattarai has publicly said that he would not claim for the state positions but will continue to work to shape the party’s ideology, a crisis that the Maoist party is facing.  “Bhattarai has this time made it clear that he is not interested in power politics,” says Panthi. “So, a cordial relationship between two leaders is expected.”  He also sees the Maoist rank and file accepting Bhattarai as their leader.  After the elections, Panthi says Bhattarai will likely plan a way to rebrand and rename the Maoist party. That Bhattarai wants to create a new socialist party without a Maoist or communist tags is known to all, but Dahal wants to continue the party’s identity. In the past, Dahal needed Bhattarai to shape the party’s ideology. Similarly, Bhattarai needed Dahal to implement his ideology.  “Without each other, says a leader close to Bhattarai, “they cannot form a strong party.” Dahal is currently facing a serious ideological crisis while Bhattarai is seeking a powerful organizational strength to support his vision to form a socialist party. “I think the two leaders seem to have realized each other’s necessity.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to clinch power for a third consecutive term this week. On October 16, hundreds of party delegates—provincial representatives, top military brass, and representation from farmers and minority communities—will assemble in the Great Hall of China to endorse Xi. The gathering will also pick new faces who shall dictate China’s military, economy, and foreign policies. Over the past decade, China has become more assertive, projecting itself as a superpower.  So what can Nepal expect from five more years of Xi?  Since he took office in 2013, like everywhere, China adopted an aggressive policy towards Nepal, particularly to counter Western influence. In 2019, Xi visited Nepal to elevate comprehensive bilateral ties into a “strategic” one. He pledged to transform Nepal from a “land-locked country to a land-linked country”. Since Xi’s trip, China has been pressing Nepal to implement the agreement reached between the two countries. Pramod Jaiswal, who follows China’s South Asia policy, says Xi is one of the few Chinese presidents to visit Nepal so he places a high priority on Nepal. “Xi sees Nepal as a gateway to South Asia,” says Jaiswal. “He views South Asia as a very important region to materialize his pet project, the Belt and Road Initiative. I believe that he is going to further deepen ties with Nepal during this third term.” Soon after taking charge as the president of China in 2013, Xi stressed peripheral diplomacy.  Doing well in peripheral diplomatic work, he said at the time, was necessary for China to achieve the "Two Centuries" objective and realize the great rejuvenation of Chinese nation. In the final days of this second term, Xi dispatched his senior colleagues to Nepal to keep tabs on the Western influence in Kathmandu. With growing tensions between Beijing and Washington over numerous issues, including the human rights issues of the Tibetan community, Xi’s China is likely to adopt a more aggressive approach to protect its security interest. Beijing is already pushing its new campaigns, such as Global Security Initiatives and Global Development Initiatives, which has put Kathmandu in a precarious position. Upendra Gautam, general secretary at China Study Center, says China’s key priorities are security and development. “Nepal can take a lot of economic benefits, but we do not have any clear vision on our engagement with China. We could not even take advantage of what Xi had pledged during his Nepal visit in 2019,” says Gautam. “The main problem is we are unable to take independent decisions when dealing with major powers.” He adds Nepal seldom does enough homework to identify its needs to present them before China. “Nepal should pursue an independent foreign policy. Geopolitical pressures and concerns are always there, but we can handle those issues with right vision and leadership.”

In February this year, Nepal’s parliament decided to endorse the $500 grant assistance from the US under its Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) amid intense uproar from some political parties. Eight months later, the hullabaloo over the US program has subsided. It is no longer a political agenda for the parties who had raised a stink over its ratification. It will take another 10 months for the US compact to formally begin (Aug 23) their five-year time-bound projects. Signed in 2017, the MCC was scheduled to begin in 2019, but it got delayed due to the controversy generated by some political parties and a section of society over some of its provisions. Since its endorsement, the two components of the compact, construction of transmission line and road maintenance, are taking off, albeit gradually. Rajiv Dahal, information officer of Millennium Challenge Account Nepal, says there are no political or security challenges for project implementation. To speed up the construction of the transmission line, he tells ApEx that MCA-Nepal is handling the issues related to land acquisition for the construction of substations, lines, and key towers. Land acquisition process for setting up four sub-stations is almost over. There are some minor issues, but they will not pose a big problem. As for acquiring land for the tower and line, Dahal says the process may take some time because the affected population may raise some issues. Officials doubt the land acquisition process will be easily settled. Another challenge for the project is conducting forest census and clearing trees to erect around 850 towers. But despite the challenges, officials remain hopeful about starting the projects within the stipulated date. For this, they are closely working with the concerned district administration offices. Another component of the MCC is road upgradation. Again, there are a few challenges here. Initially, there was an agreement for carrying out upgradation work on road sections with a combined length of 305 km. But there have been some changes on the original plan. Now, under the pilot program, a 40-km section of the East-West Highway, from Shivakhola to Dhankhola in Dang district, will be upgraded adopting latest technology. Based on the success and experience of this pilot program, the road project could be expanded. Officials say there are no problems concerning the budget. The MCC headquarters that had previously withheld the funds following the program’s controversy in Nepal has been released now. The MCC headquarters, as well as the Nepal government, are releasing the required money for land acquisition and payment to international bidders. There have been some push backs against the MCC compact by fringe communist parties, including the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal, but not on a large scale. Meanwhile, China, which had previously expressed strong disdain for the US program, is maintaining a silence. The fact that major parties are not protesting the compact anymore is a respite for the MCC officials, though some politicians are still showing concerns over the 12-point interpretative declaration endorsed by Parliament along with the compact. While Nepal has been maintaining that the interpretative declaration is an essential part of the compact, the US side has not said anything. The current five-party alliance, which endorsed the MCC, is likely to return to power after the November elections. So officials expect the projects under the compact to move ahead smoothly. For more than three years, political parties were sharply divided over the MCC. Now, as the parties are busy preparing for the November 20 polls, the heavily contested topic has suddenly become irrelevant. Binoj Basnyat, strategic affairs analyst and a former Nepal Army major general, believes the MCC projects will move smoothly and that chances of opposition are very low. Once the projects start delivering and people start realizing their benefits, he says, there will be no room for opposition.  

Nepali voters will head to the polling stations on Nov 20 to elect their representatives to the federal parliament and provincial assemblies. It will be the eighth general election conducted to elect the House of Representatives (HoR), which is responsible for electing government and law making. The first was conducted in 1959. This week, ApEx reflects on the electoral history of Nepal. 1959 The first general election of Nepal was held in multiple phases, which began in February and lasted 45 days. This was the first election conducted on the principle of adult franchise and secret ballot. The voting took place to elect a bicameral house—House of Representative (HoR) and Upper House. Nine political parties and some independent candidates were in the fray. There were 109 members in the HoR and all of them were elected under first-past-the-post (FPTP) category. Candidates from six parties and four independents got elected. The Nepal Congress (NC) secured a two-thirds majority in the HoR, bagging 74 seats. Following the election, BP Koirala of the NC became the first democratically elected prime minister of Nepal. But King Mahendra dismissed Koirala in 1960. Thus, started the 30 years of party-less Panchayat regime. The monarchy set up a rubber- stamp legislature. One notable election conducted during the Panchayat period was the 1980 referendum between either multiparty democracy or reformed Panchayat regime. 1991 The first general election after the restoration of democracy in 1990 was conducted on May 12, 1991.  The polls took place in 205 constituencies and the number of candidates was 1,345. Eighty women candidates contested in the historic election but only seven were elected to the HoR. The NC won 110 seats to form a single majority government. The party’s immediate rival, CPN-UML, won 69 seats. Leaders from eight political parties and three independent candidates were also elected. Samyukta Janamorcha, Nepal Sadbhawna Party and Rastriya Prajanatra Party (Chand) won nine, six and three seats respectively. Likewise, Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party and Nepal Communist Party settled for two seats each, while the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (Thapa) won just one seat. After the election, Congress leader Girija Prasad Koirala became prime minister. But he dissolved the parliament after three years due to the party dispute, paving way for the mid-term elections. 1994 The mid-term election was held on Nov 13, 1994. Altogether 24 political parties contested in the polls. Five parties and seven independent candidates emerged victorious, with the UML becoming the largest party after winning 88 seats. The Congress came a close second with 83 seats. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepal Sadbhawana Party and Nepal Majdoor Kishan Party won 20, three, and four seats respectively. UML leader Manmohan Adhikari became the first communist prime minister after the election. He formed a coalition government securing support from royalist parties. Eighty-six women had contested the election but only seven women won. 1999 The 1999 general election was staged in two phases on May 3 and May 17. Out of 39 political parties fighting the election, six emerged victorious to become national parties. The NC became the largest party after winning 111 seats, followed by the UML with 71 seats. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party won 11 seats, while CPN (ML) and Nepal Sadbhawana Party secured five seats each. Samyukta Janamorcha and Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party won one seat each. Twelve women lawmakers were also elected. After this election, NC leader Krishna Prasad Bhattarai became prime minister. 2008 The election to the first Constituents Assembly (CA) was conducted on April 10, 2008. Of the 601 seats in the assembly, 240 were directly contested under first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system, 335 under the proportional representation (PR) and 25 members were nominated by the Council of Ministers. The CPN (Maoist Center)—UCPN (Maoist) at the time—emerged as the largest party, securing 226 seats and the chairman of the party Pushpa Kamal Dahal became prime minister. After the unification with other fringe parties, the number of Maoist seats reached 240. NC and UML secured 109 and 103 seats respectively. Initially, there were 19 parties in the CA, which later reached 32 due to multiple splits among the fringe forces. Two independent candidates also won the elections, while 25 members were nominated by the Council of Ministers. But the CA was dissolved in 2012 after it failed to deliver on the mandate of promulgating a new constitution.  2013 The second CA election took place on Nov 19, 2013. The government led by the then chief justice Khil Raj Regmi conducted the polls. Altogether 240 members were elected under the FPTP system and 335 under the PR category. Similarly, the Council of Ministers appointed 24 members. The NC emerged as the largest party with 196 seats, while the UML and Maoist party came second and third after winning 179 and 80 seats respectively. Sushil Koirala of Congress became the prime minister with the support of the UML. The second CA drafted and promulgated the new constitution of Nepal in September 2015. 2017 The first parliamentary and provincial level elections under the 2015 constitution were held in two phases on Nov 26 and Dec 3, 2017. Under the FPTP category 55 political parties and under PR 49 political parties participated in the elections; 165 lawmakers were elected under the FPTP system and 110 under the PR category.  The UML emerged as the largest party securing 121 seats, while the NC came second with 63 seats. The Maoist party secured 52 seats. Soon after the elections, the UML and Maoist merged to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), the largest communist force in Nepal’s political history. KP Oli then became prime minister. Altogether 10 parties were represented in the HoR. Note: This compilation does not include the local elections, elections of the upper house, and elections held by the erstwhile monarchy during the 30 years of partyless Panchayat regime.