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There is a glimmer of hope that the long-pending transitional justice process in Nepal might finally be moving forward. The government has recently appointed heads and members to both the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission of Investigation of Enforced Disappeared Persons. However, skepticism remains widespread regarding whether the new leadership will truly be able to navigate and resolve the deeply complex and often contentious issues inherent in this process. Concerns have been raised about the potential inexperience of some nominees, the possibility of undue political influence and the absolute necessity of providing these commissions with adequate resources to carry out their critical work effectively. It’s important to remember that over 60,000 complaints are currently awaiting thorough investigation, which underscores the magnitude of the task ahead.

In an effort to highlight the urgent issue of climate change and its impacts on the fragile Himalayan region, the government is preparing to host the Sagarmatha Sambaad from May 16 to 18 in Kathmandu. This event aims to draw global attention to the specific vulnerabilities of mountain ecosystems. The government has extended invitations to 175 foreign representatives, including environment ministers from various countries. The presence of these international figures is intended to foster dialogue and collaboration on addressing climate challenges. However, the government has failed to ensure participation of heads of government and state, which could impact the summit’s overall influence.

The government’s continuing delay in appointing a new governor for the Nepal Rastra Bank is drawing increased criticism from various sectors of society. While both the ruling Nepali Congress and the CPN-UML assert that there are no political disputes hampering the process, the appointment remains stalled. This delay has rendered the government-formed recommendation committee effectively obsolete. In a further development, one of its members, Biso Poudel, has recently resigned from the committee, amidst speculation that he himself hopes to be appointed as the governor. Speaking at a public event on May 15, Prime Minister Oli said that he does not have a preferred candidate in mind, but emphasized his desire to see a highly capable individual take on the crucial leadership role.

On the political front, royalist forces have announced their intention to launch street protests beginning May 29. Their aim is to pressure the mainstream political parties into considering the restoration of the monarchy and the reinstatement of a Hindu state. Last week, former King Gyanendra Shah met with a number of pro-monarchy leaders, reportedly to encourage them to mobilize an impactful movement. It is worth noting that while royalist forces have historically been divided, there have been recent attempts to project a unified front. In response to these preparations, major political parties, particularly the UML and CPN (Maoist Center), have issued strong warnings against any attempts to bring back the monarchy. These parties have also directed their respective youth organizations to actively counter the planned protests by the royalist factions.

In parliamentary affairs, discussions are currently underway in the lead-up to the annual budget. Lawmakers from across the political spectrum are using this opportunity to voice their views and priorities regarding the upcoming budget. The government’s policy and program have already been endorsed by the Parliament, setting the broad parameters for the fiscal year ahead. Finance Minister Bishnu Poudel is now focusing on securing support from not only the ruling parties but also the opposition to finalize the budget.
As Nepal anticipates the arrival of the monsoon season in the coming months, predictions indicate that the country is likely to receive higher than average rainfall this year. A recent incident in Kavre district is a stark reminder of the potential dangers. A heavy rain event caused temporary blockage of the BP Highway and resulted in damages in the Panauti area of Kavre. This incident should serve as a wake-up call for government agencies, highlighting the urgent need for thorough preparations to cope with possible monsoon-induced disasters. Authorities are urged to prioritize critical infrastructure, particularly the main highways, in their mitigation efforts.

On a more positive note, the banking sector in Nepal is currently experiencing a steady rebound in credit growth. This positive trend is largely attributed to the rise in foreign trade and the increased demand for loans across key sectors of the economy. A recent report from the Nepal Rastra Bank indicates that private sector credit from banks and financial institutions grew by seven percent, reaching Rs 5,534.77bn, during the first nine months of the current fiscal year 2024-25. This growth reflects a credit disbursement of Rs 361.3bn between mid-July 2024 and mid-April 2025. To put this in perspective, credit growth was 5.1 percent during the same period of the previous fiscal year, with a total credit portfolio of Rs 5,167.17bn in mid-April of last year. On a year-on-year basis, credit disbursement grew by 8.3 percent in mid-April.

Lastly, China’s Deputy Speaker and Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Ziao Jie, who arrived in Nepal on May 14 to participate in the Sagarmatha Sambaad, is taking the opportunity to engage with Nepali leaders and Parliament. He has already met with Prime Minister Oli and is scheduled to meet with Speaker Dev Raj Ghimire, National Assembly Chairman Narayan Dahal, and various cross-party leaders. 

Parliamentary cooperation between Nepal and China formally began in 2022.

Royalist parties such as the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) currently believe that restoring the monarchy through street protests is unlikely—at least for now. They are of the view that instead of taking to the streets, their focus should be on strengthening their position in Parliament and through elections.

Since 2008, the RPP has consistently advocated for the restoration of the monarchy and a Hindu state. But the current situation marks a notable departure from the past, primarily due to former King Gyanendra Shah’s apparent decision to take a more active role in the movement. Shah reportedly believes a united royalist street campaign could pave the way for his return as monarch.

Recently, the former king met dozens of supporters, including senior and youth leaders of various royalist parties, at a hotel in Nagarkot. At least two leaders present at the meeting told ApEx that Shah appeared more outspoken and optimistic than ever about reviving the monarchy.

According to leaders, Shah believes that the crowd that welcomed him at Tribhuvan International Airport on March 9 is a ‘public endorsement’ for his return to power. He has urged his supporters to mobilize even larger gatherings in the streets. 

While the former monarch believes that political parties should spearhead the movement, he is reportedly skeptical of current RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden’s leadership. Multiple sources say Shah has expressed dissatisfaction with Lingden’s performance and certain RPP agendas. The former king believes a more charismatic leader is needed to lead the movement, said one leader on condition of anonymity.

After considerable behind-the-scenes effort, Shah has succeeded in uniting royalist forces under the leadership of Navaraj Subedi. Prominent figures such as Lingden, Kamal Thapa and other veteran RPP leaders have now agreed to join a united campaign set to begin after May 29. To make the movement effective, Shah has shared a set of strategic suggestions. The protests should be continuous rather than one-off events, should draw participants from outside the Kathmandu Valley, and should be supported by a broader awareness campaign around the royalist agenda.

However, some within RPP argue that by sidelining Lingden and promoting Subedi, Shah is alienating the very party that has long championed the royalist cause. This means RPP will support the movement, but it may not participate actively, said one party leader.

Following an extended conversation with the former king, some supporters have concluded that there is a growing disconnect between their vision of a ceremonial monarchy and what Shah seems to envision. Several leaders now suspect that Shah may not be willing to remain a symbolic figurehead if the monarchy is revived.

Shah has also acknowledged missteps, notably the controversial appointment of Durga Prasai to lead the March 28 protest, which turned violent. He believes that political figures—not non-political activists—should be at the forefront, though he has yet to name a clear preference beyond backing Subedi for the time being. Shah has also urged his supporters to resolve internal divisions within the royalist camp.

Some RPP leaders remain frustrated with Shah’s stance. They feel he has been reluctant to credit RPP for sustaining the pro-monarchy agenda over the years. During the last RPP convention, former RPP Chairman Thapa publicly accused Shah of interfering in party politics by backing Lingden for party leadership. After losing to Lingden, Thapa left the party, openly blaming Shah for meddling. Now, three years later, Shah appears equally disappointed with Lingden’s leadership.

The former king has told his supporters to advance his vision of the Prithvi Path—a roadmap for nation-building based on the Dibya Upadesh (Divine Counsel) of King Prithvi Narayan Shah. In a video message released on the eve of Nepali New Year 2082, Shah reiterated that the Dibya Upadesh remains highly relevant even today.

Since March 9, Shah has grown more vocal in expressing his desire to return to the throne. He has framed the recent royalist protests as a sign of the people’s awakening. Yet many who have met and spoken with him remain puzzled by his confidence.

As the May 29 protests approach, their direction and impact remain uncertain. The government has already signaled it will crack down on the movement. Senior leaders of major political parties have issued warnings against organizing such protests. Over 100 people, including Rabindra Mishra, Dhawal Shumsher Rana, and Durga Prasai, were arrested in connection with the March 28 violence.

The coalition government of the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML has unveiled its annual policies and programs without any major disagreements between the two parties. Parliamentarians are currently deliberating on the policy document, with some NC leaders expressing reservations, noting that certain core agendas of the UML appear to have been prioritized. Historically, the annual program and budget have often sown discord among coalition partners. Lawmakers are now offering their suggestions on the policy document. Meanwhile, the main opposition, CPN (Maoist Center), has expressed dissatisfaction, particularly over the omission of several projects previously announced by Pushpa Kamal Dahal.To preempt potential tensions over the budget, Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel has begun consultations with NC leaders, while also continuing dialogue with the Maoist Center.

A recent friendly exchange between Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and Maoist Chair Dahal has sparked speculation, with some political analysts predicting a possible collaboration between the two communist parties. However, the UML leadership has concluded that recent efforts to destabilize the government have lost momentum. Some believe that while the NC is negotiating with the government over key positions, Oli is attempting to increase his leverage by adopting a conciliatory approach toward Dahal.

Meanwhile, Dahal’s repeated overtures to the NC have failed to yield meaningful results. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba reiterated this week that there are no significant problems within the coalition. On the delay in appointing the Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank, Deuba attributed it to internal issues within the NRB, denying any inter-party disagreement. His remarks come amid reports suggesting that disputes over the appointment could strain the coalition—an argument supported by past experiences where minor issues, rather than ideological differences, led to the collapse of alliances.

The ongoing pro-monarchy protests have weakened significantly, though royalist parties and allied groups continue to mobilize. Buoyed by an increase in supporters, former King Gyanendra Shah has been meeting royalist forces to encourage continued protests. Learning from the violent March 28 protest in Tinkune, the former king now appears to be backing political outfits such as the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). The pro-monarchy movement under Navaraj Subedi has announced an indefinite protest beginning May 29. Subedi has managed to bring RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden, RPP-Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa and Keshar Bahadur Bista into his fold—an unexpected development, given Lingden’s earlier reluctance to accept Subedi's leadership. This comes against the backdrop of a meeting between Shah and RPP leaders.

Relations between the NC and China, strained since 2015, are slowly improving. After a prolonged hiatus, senior NC leaders are visiting China at the invitation of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which appears to be stepping up its outreach. This week, NC President Deuba, senior leaders Shekhar Koirala, Shashank Koirala and others attended a photo exhibition on Nepal-China ties. At the event, Deuba reaffirmed NC’s commitment to the one-China policy and pledged that Nepali soil would not be used for anti-China activities—messages well received by the Chinese side.

Prime Minister Oli has also continued efforts to make appointments to transitional justice bodies. This week, he met with Dahal to discuss the matter, but no significant progress was made. Sources close to the discussions admit that the appointments are complex, with divisions not only among political parties but also among conflict victims and various domestic and international stakeholders. Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak has said the government is committed to addressing victims’ concerns. However, Nepal’s human rights community—seen as having a significant stake in the process—is often accused of obstructing progress due to personal or institutional interests.

Nepal has stepped up security across border areas, airports and other sensitive zones in response to escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. The situation intensified after India launched “Operation Sindoor,” conducting airstrikes on nine terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 people, including one Nepali citizen.

In other developments, the United States has announced an 85 percent cut in USAID programs, citing a shift to align foreign aid with American strategic interests. The US has started transferring the remaining programs that match its revised priorities. In Nepal, the future of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) remains uncertain, and the US has not clarified the status of remaining USAID-funded projects.

Since the 1950s, America’s development assistance to Nepal has steadily increased. However, after Donald Trump was re-inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States, this assistance was significantly cut, straining small countries’ health, education, and humanitarian sectors.

Small nations are increasingly viewing superpowers as unreliable partners, as assistance and projects have often been canceled midway. Experts say at the very least small countries should have been given time to find alternative sources of funding before support in critical sectors like health and education was withdrawn.

While the exact figures remain unclear, dozens of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have canceled projects previously supported by USAID. Referring to America’s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) during an internal party meeting, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli noted that agreements signed after years of deliberations were abruptly terminated.

With media reports suggesting that the Trump administration might shut down the MCC, there is growing concern in Nepal that two major projects—a cross-border transmission line and a road upgrade—could be affected. Prime Minister Oli says that Nepal should not overly rely on foreign aid. In a direct reference to the MCC, he noted that even though the parliaments of both countries had ratified the compact, the US unilaterally decided to terminate it.

Foreign policy experts say the new US administration’s policies pose both challenges and opportunities for countries like Nepal, which have relied heavily on foreign aid for decades, even in critical sectors like health. In the short term, countries will struggle to secure funds, impacting infrastructure development. But in the long run, experts say it presents an opportunity to reduce dependency on foreign assistance.

Nilanthi Samaranayake, an independent analyst based in Washington, DC, says that smaller countries are clearly affected by the shift in US international engagement policy and that they should reassess their economic and security dependencies on the US.

Nepal, she suggests, should seek a broader range of international partners beyond just the US, India, and China. While Washington’s policy changes bring challenges, she is of the view that they also offer Nepal an opportunity to enhance its diplomatic outreach and diversify its economic and security partnerships.

Development cooperation between Nepal and the US dates back to 1951, when the two countries signed their first bilateral aid agreement under the US’s Point Four Program. Early US assistance prioritized building roads, establishing telephone exchanges, eliminating malaria from the Tarai region and promoting agricultural development. By 1959, the US had helped Kathmandu install its first automatic telephone exchange, providing 1,000 lines, and supported the construction of the 87-kilometer Bharatpur-Hetauda road under the Rapti Development Program. Work also began on the Hetauda-Kathmandu ropeway the same year.

In the 1960s, during King Mahendra’s consolidation of the Panchayat system, US aid surged dramatically. President Dwight Eisenhower’s unexpected $15m pledge to King Mahendra in April 1960 marked a turning point in US involvement in Nepal’s development. USAID expanded its programs in agriculture, health, education and industrial development. After King Mahendra dissolved parliament and banned political parties in 1960, US aid was redirected to support the Panchayat system. The US supported construction of administrative structures across Nepal, viewing the Panchayat system as a potential vehicle for mobilizing human resources and fostering economic, social and democratic political development.

Chandra Dev Bhatta, a Kathmandu-based geopolitical expert, says that as traditional Western donors reassess their commitments, the impact on countries like Nepal’s development and service delivery mechanisms could be significant.

“With the withdrawal of USAID and now the MCC, some of Nepal’s vital infrastructure projects may face serious challenges, if not come to a complete standstill,” Bhatta says. “International aid architecture is not only evolving but has also become increasingly politicized. While reduced aid and grants are a concern, Nepal must press forward with infrastructure development and keep the service delivery systems intact.”

In the short term, Bhatta suggests that Nepal should urge donor countries to honor their previous commitments despite new geopolitical realities. In the long term, he says, the importance of recognizing that aid is often driven by the donor’s own interests. “This is the stark reality of international cooperation,” he says. “Global political and economic dynamics demand us to have self-reliant models of economic development, and Nepali certainly will have to work in that direction.”

It is now almost certain that US assistance to Nepal will continue to decline. Support is likely to persist only in areas aligned with the Republican Party’s priorities. So far, there have been no concrete discussions between the two countries regarding this new reality.

Satoru Nagao, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Hudson Institute, says that under the current rules of global free trade, China has been catching up with the US. And for small countries, he adds global trade brings both opportunities and challenges. “While factories may relocate elsewhere, small countries can still attract investment if they maintain competitive production costs.”

Nagao points out that if tariffs dominate the new global trade rules, small countries will need to adapt. Although this shift may allow local industries to survive, there will likely be fewer opportunities for foreign investment. He says since the primary target of current US policy is China, countries that depend heavily on China could suffer under these shifts. He warns that if Nepal increasingly relies on China, it risks becoming “a passenger on a sinking ship.”

The ongoing teachers’ protest has compelled Minister for Education, Science, and Technology, Bidya Bhattarai, to resign. On one hand, she was under mounting pressure to address the demands of teachers; on the other, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was reportedly dissatisfied with her performance.

A clear divergence emerged between the interests of the ruling CPN-UML and Bhattarai’s method of handling pressing issues in the education sector. With her background as a university lecturer, Bhattarai was seen as a competent and knowledgeable figure to lead the ministry. Yet, despite her credentials, tensions within the government and on the streets reached a breaking point. For over three weeks, secondary school teachers have been staging protests in central Kathmandu, severely disrupting the education of thousands of students in public schools. These demonstrations have also caused traffic congestion, significantly affecting transportation systems and local businesses.

In response to the leadership vacuum, senior UML leader Raghuji Pant has been nominated as the new Education Minister. According to government sources, fulfilling the teachers’ demands is no easy task. They argue that some grievances can only be addressed once the long-awaited Education Bill is passed by Parliament. However, the unrest is not limited to teachers. Numerous groups and organizations have taken to the streets to voice their own frustrations and demands.

Resident doctors are rallying for fair allowances, local government staff are staging demonstrations, and in recent years, victims of cooperatives and loan sharks have also mobilized. The cumulative pressure from these groups poses a serious challenge for the government. How these compounding issues will be handled remains uncertain, but many fear the situation may escalate beyond control if not addressed promptly.

Within the Nepali Congress (NC), internal efforts are reportedly underway to topple the current government, despite party president Sher Bahadur Deuba's preference for maintaining the coalition. Other senior leaders—such as Purna Bahadur Khadka, Shekhar Koirala, Gagan Kumar Thapa and their allies—are advocating for a renewed alliance with the CPN (Maoist Center). This week, Khadka publicly criticized the coalition’s performance, emphasizing the urgent need to improve the government’s working style.

At the same time, Maoist Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal has made it clear that his priority is to form a coalition with the NC. Political analysts suggest that Dahal is maneuvering to increase his party’s bargaining power with both NC and UML in the context of upcoming electoral alliances. If negotiations with the NC fail, Dahal is expected to revive the idea of a leftist coalition as a strategic alternative.

Amid these political shifts, the government is preparing to unveil new policy programs and the national budget. However, these initiatives could spark further friction between coalition partners NC and UML. Historically, budget and policy disagreements between ruling parties have often become flashpoints that lead to instability or even regime change.

Meanwhile, the recent wave of pro-monarchy protests appears to have lost steam. Last week, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party staged demonstrations in Kathmandu and several locations outside the valley. However, the low turnout has prompted the party to reconsider its strategy before organizing further events. Following the arrest of Durga Prasai, his supporters have remained largely absent from the streets. Dozens of them have been detained for alleged involvement in the arson and vandalism that occurred on March 28.

After nearly a month of house arrest, Nava Raj Subedi has returned to lead the pro-monarchy movement, but the campaign seems to have lost momentum. Former king Gyanendra Shah has reportedly urged calm, expressing concern that further violence could trigger government retaliation against him. According to sources, Gyanendra has instructed his followers to keep protests peaceful. However, the extent of coordination between him and pro-monarchy groups remains murky. As the movement weakens, mainstream political parties and the government have noticeably softened their tone regarding the former monarch.

In other political developments, top leaders from UML, NC, and Maoist Center convened this week to discuss critical matters, including the stalled transitional justice appointments and pending education legislation. Despite the meeting, no substantial progress was made.

Nevertheless, the appointment process for the transitional justice mechanism has resumed. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Oli publicly addressed rumors of an internal challenge to his leadership, allegedly spearheaded by former President Bidya Devi Bhandari. Speaking at a public function, Oli asserted that the UML is unimaginable without him, boldly claiming that he “won’t grow old” for another 20 to 25 years.

In recent weeks, Bhandari has become increasingly vocal about her political ambitions, stating that numerous party leaders are urging her to take the helm. Dissatisfaction with Oli’s leadership has led some senior UML figures to shift their allegiance to Bhandari, who is emerging as a new power center within the party. “Some people are raising concerns about my age and health, but no one should imagine this party without me,” Oli recently declared.

In a move to reassert control and respond to public criticism, Oli has announced the formation of a high-level good governance committee, which he will personally lead. While the initiative is ostensibly aimed at combating corruption and restoring good governance, public skepticism about its efficacy remains high. Governance has been one of the biggest casualties of the NC-UML coalition, with many key decisions delayed due to inter-party disagreements. One such example is the government’s failure to appoint a new governor for the Nepal Rastra Bank, a deadlock rooted in internal political differences.

Meanwhile, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) continues to face criticism for lacking a clear ideological direction. This criticism intensified when the party opted to remain silent during the recent wave of pro-monarchy protests. However, this week, senior RSP leader Swarnim Wagle outlined the party’s position on several national issues during a public event outside the valley. He stated that the RSP supports scrapping the current federal structure, arguing that it imposes an unsustainable financial burden on the state. He also proposed a downsizing of both federal and provincial legislatures—positions that clearly suggest the party is not fully aligned with the principles enshrined in the 2015 constitution.

In a related development, two Madhes-based parties—the Janamat Party and the Nagarik Unmukti Party—are preparing for a merger. CK Raut is expected to take the helm of the unified political force, signaling a new chapter in regional political realignment.

It has been over a week since the World Exposition opened in Osaka, where an estimated 28m visitors are expected over the six-month event. Among the 158 participating countries—including Nepal—nearly all have set up their pavilions. However, Nepal failed to open its pavilion on the inauguration day (April 13) due to construction delays, exposing governance shortcomings.

The delay stems from a dispute between the Nepali government and the contractor. Two years ago, the government selected a private company to construct the pavilion, yet poor coordination and unresolved issues prevented its timely completion.

Jitendra Basnet, spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies, cited cost overruns, budget shortages and logistical lapses as key reasons for the delay but declined to provide further details. Other officials also refused to comment.

A senior official involved in the project, speaking anonymously, revealed that the conflict arose over payment procedures. Nepal Rastra Bank required contractors to pay a 30 percent tax before transferring funds from Japan, which the contractor refused. Visa complications further stalled progress. “Despite two years of preparation, we couldn’t complete the pavilion—it’s embarrassing,” the official admitted.

Government authorities are now scrambling to resolve the dispute and open the pavilion soon. Durga B Subedi, Nepal’s Ambassador to Japan, said he would assess the situation in Osaka next week before commenting. Meanwhile, it remains unclear whether Nepal will have high-level representation at the expo.

The Nepal Pavilion was intended to showcase the country’s cultural heritage, natural beauty and other attractions. With 119,000 visitors on opening day—and other nations’ pavilions drawing large crowds—the delay could hurt Nepal’s tourism and economic prospects at the event.

Held at Yumeshima (“Dream Island”), a reclaimed industrial site in Osaka Bay, the expo—with the theme “Designing Future Society for Our Lives”—features futuristic exhibits from over 160 countries and organizations across 80 uniquely designed pavilions. This is Osaka’s second expo after the hugely successful 1970 , which set a record with 64m visitors until Shanghai’s 2010 event.

The United States of America has condemned the violence that occurred during the pro-monarchy protests in Kathmandu on March 28. It extended deepest condolences to the families and friends of those who lost their lives.

On that day, pro-monarchy protests vandalized the public buildings including the offices of Annapurna Media Network and Kantipur Publication. They also set the buildings on fire with some damages.

A State Department spokesperson said: “The fundamental freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly must be protected. However, we do not condone violence and the destruction of property.” Regarding the attack on media houses, the spokesperson said that the United States supports media globally. The free flow of accurate information, ideas and opinion is the cornerstone of democracy, and it is essential that journalists be able to perform their work free from fear, the spokesperson said.

There are growing demands that there should be a fair investigation on the violence that occurred in the Tinkune area of Kathmandu. 

There are also reports that police used excessive force and indiscriminately opened fire on the protestors. Police have already arrested more than five-dozen people in connection with the violence.

The Nepal government is refusing to form a judicial commission to probe the March 28 violence. Regarding the attack on media houses, the international community remains silent and the US is the first country to speak about the violence. Over the past few weeks, pro-monarchy protests have been hitting the streets demanding the restoration of the monarchy and the Hindu state. In a latest series of protests, Rastriya Prajatantra Party organized a protest in Kathmandu on Tuesday.

The events of March 28, 2025 at Tinkune remain shrouded in uncertainty. What started as a pro-monarchy demonstration quickly spiraled into a violent confrontation between protestors and police. Protestors claim the situation escalated when police fired teargas shells while they were assembling for a peaceful demonstration. On their part, police officials argue they had no choice but to intervene after some commanders allegedly urged crowds to advance toward the airport and the parliamentary building.

In the aftermath, police arrested Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leaders Rabindra Mishra and Dawlshamsher Rana for their alleged involvement in inciting a mob that vandalized multiple office buildings and private properties in the Tinkune area.  Authorities are now collecting evidence to file cases against them, while Durga Prasai—reportedly named as a protest commander—remains on the run. 

The Ministry of Home Affairs and Nepal Police are under fire for their handling of the protests. Reports indicate that officers used live rounds on demonstrators, with at least 20 people injured in the shootings. Tragically, two individuals—including a journalist—lost their lives, while dozens more sustained injuries. The police have admitted to the shootings, claiming they aimed to defuse tensions.

Adding to the chaos, misinformation and disinformation have flooded social media. Fake videos falsely linked to the Tinkune incident have been widely circulated, making it even harder to determine the truth. Protestors also launched a targeted attack on media houses, vandalizing the offices of Annapurna Media Network and Kantipur Television and even attempting to set them on fire.

Surprisingly, international media rights organizations and democratic nations—including the United States and the European Union—have remained silent. This marks a stark departure from their usual strong stance on press freedom violations in Nepal. The silence raises questions about whether human rights and freedom of speech are still priorities for the global democratic community. Some analysts even speculate that the shift could be linked to Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency.

Amid the growing controversy, there is mounting pressure on the government to establish an independent commission to investigate the Tinkune incident. Such a body could uncover the truth, ensure justice for victims, and hold those responsible accountable. However, Nepal’s major political parties have shown little interest in forming such a commission.

The incident has also exposed serious flaws within Nepal’s security apparatus. First, there was a lack of coordination among agencies. Second, security forces failed to gather intelligence on Prasai’s plans in advance. Lastly, Nepal’s law enforcement faces severe shortages of essential equipment, with no significant procurement in the last decade.

The government has pointed fingers at former King Gyanendra Shah, alleging that he played a role in orchestrating the protests by appointing Prasai as a commander. On March 27—just a day before the demonstrations—Shah met with Prasai, further fueling suspicions. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has publicly stated in Parliament that the former king was involved and "will not be spared." However, it remains unclear what legal actions, if any, will be taken against him.

Meanwhile, political leaders are busy countering the pro-monarchy narrative that the republican system has failed Nepal. Nepali Congress General Secretary Bishwa Prakash Sharma has sought to shift the debate by presenting comparative data on development under monarchy versus republican governance. Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah’s move to fine the former king for the environmental damage caused by protestors has also drawn mixed reactions. Major political parties who criticized Mayor Balen’s activities in the past are now praising him, while pro-monarchy forces have decried the mayor’s action.

Despite their shared goal of restoring the monarchy, pro-monarchy factions remain divided. Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leaders Rajendra Lingden and Kamal Thapa, while supporting the broader movement, chose not to participate in the March 28 protests. In contrast, Mishra and Rana did, despite warnings that Prasai’s involvement could lead to violence.

Leadership changes have also added to the instability. With Nava Raj Subedi placed under house arrest following the protests, Jagman Gurung has taken over the movement’s leadership. However, internal conflicts continue to plague the royalist forces, threatening their momentum.

India’s influence has also been a topic of debate. Last week, the CPN-UML had to issue a formal statement clarifying that it never accused India of backing the pro-monarchy movement. Despite this, some communist leaders continue to push the narrative that India is supporting the royalist cause. Meanwhile, Nepal’s Ambassador to India, Shankar Sharma, recently met with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, sparking speculation about whether India—or at least some of its political figures—has a stake in the unrest.

The pro-monarchy movement shows no signs of slowing down, with protestors vowing to continue demonstrations despite the setback on March 28. However, the movement faces internal fractures, wavering political support, and government crackdowns. Whether the former king himself will break his silence remains an open question, but his close aides insist that he does not take sides in political matters.