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It’s been a whirlwind year since Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal assumed office on December 26, 2022. Against all odds, he's managed to steer the ship through turbulent political waters, but the real question is: has the journey been as smooth as he'd hoped?

Let’s face it, people did not have much expectation with the current dispensation. Both Dahal and his key coalition partner Nepali Congress’s President Sher Bahadur Deuba are tested politicians with poor track records. So expectations from this government were not exactly high. Before this government even kicked into gear, citizens were already frustrated with major parties playing power games without any regard for progress. 

Fast forward a year, and the time has come to dissect Dahal’s performance. Dahal, whose party polled third in the 2022 general elections, showcased his skills by keeping the coalition intact and maintaining a precarious grip on power. 

Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) had forged an electoral alliance with the Congress and other fringe parties with the intent of defeating the CPN-UML. Dahal and Deuba had agreed to form a rotational government after the election, where Dahal would lead the first half of the five-year term. 

But soon after the election results were out, Deuba refused to honor the deal, prompting Dahal to form a coalition government with the UML. The Maoist-UML partnership was short-lived though. While Dahal assumed the seat of the executive, it was the UML, the second largest party, that called most of the shots, much to the prime minister’s annoyance.  

The last straw came when the UML staked claim to the post of the president. So Dahal once again struck a deal with Deuba’s Nepali Congress to form a new government within months after the elections. And this time Deuba agreed to allow Dahal to lead the coalition government first as a returning favor for throwing the Maoist party’s weight behind Congress’s presidential candidate, Ram Chandra Paudel. Thus Dahal succeeded in reviving the pre-election coalition, and he has so far managed to keep it together. 

Soon after assuming the prime minister’s office, Prime Minister Dahal projected himself as a champion of republicanism, secularism, federalism, and inclusion. He promised to protect and promote these values enshrined in the 2015 constitution. 

But the prime minister found himself facing a challenge on all fronts. The constitution's key pillars came under attack, with voices against it growing louder. Secularism and federalism faced severe backlash, and provincial governments complained of being short-changed by the federal authority.

Then along came anti-republican rabble-rouser Durga Prasai, a businessman turned common enemy of all major political parties, who rallied thousands of people behind him to protest against the current political system. Additionally, the social harmony that Nepal once prided itself on was disrupted by clashes between religious and ethnic groups. 

People’s frustration with major political parties has reached an all-time high, and the popularity graph of leaders have hit rock bottom. The fear of a crumbling system is palpable, and parties are already fretting about the next election.

The next general election is four years away, and the major parties are already worried. They fear the rise of new political forces, particularly the Rastriya Swatantra Party, and independent candidates.

On the governance front, Dahal failed to inject hope and optimism. Corruption remained untamed, and service delivery showed no signs of improvement. Despite issuing directives to improve governance, Dahal found himself in a bind as his own directives gathered dust. Frequent transfers of officials, a desperate attempt to appease ministers, reflected a lack of learning from past mistakes.

Even within his party, discontent brewed. Dahal's close-knit circle irked party members, and the resignation of political advisor Haribol Gajurel spoke volumes about the government's internal struggles. In the midst of this, Dahal’s attempt to salvage the government's image through selective anti-corruption measures fell flat, failing to inspire hope among the people.

The government also failed to endorse the key bills from Parliament that aim to strengthen the federal and local governments. Dahal had promised to conclude the transitional justice process drawing the support of the international community, but failed on this agenda too.

While Prime Minister Dahal tried to improve the image of his government by opening an investigation into some big corruption scandals such as fake refugee scandals, the Lalita Niwas land grab, and smuggling of gold, it failed to sprout hope in the people because he adopted a selective approach and tried to protect his party leaders. 

The economic outlook under Dahal's leadership has been far from rosy. A surge in people seeking job opportunities abroad reflects a lack of confidence in the domestic job market. While some positive indicators exist, such as a decline in inflation and growing remittances, the overall economic landscape lacks the transformative touch promised by Dahal.

In the realm of foreign policy, Dahal played it safe. Steering clear of contentious issues with major powers, he focused on economic and developmental agendas. An appeasement policy was adopted to safeguard the fragile coalition, especially with India, which wields significant influence over Nepal's internal politics. Dahal has also somewhat succeeded in convincing China regarding his compulsion of maintaining close ties with New Delhi and Washington.

As Dahal contemplates changing ministers to shake things up, the real question remains: can a mere reshuffling bring about the change Nepal needs? Self-reflection seems to be in short supply as Dahal, instead of addressing concerns, dismisses critics as regressive forces.

First, Dahal himself should mend his ways. Over the past year, Dahal spent most of his precious time participating in insignificant events, such as a book launch and building inauguration. He invested very little or no time to diagnose where the problem lies and how it can be resolved. He rarely visited any government offices to inspect the service delivery.

One year into the job, Dahal appears more focused on securing the next year in power than leaving a lasting impact. The clock is ticking, and the country watches with bated breath to see if Dahal can transform challenges into triumphs in the years ahead.

Nepal is much better than it was three decades ago when democracy was restored. Poverty has substantially gone down, there is road access in remote regions, health system has improved, people live longer and healthier, and the quality of education has become better.

But over the past few years, the sense of pessimism among the people has increased. Many people, mostly the youth, believe that the things in the country will not change or become worse 10-20 years down the line. There aren't many optimists around. Even the wealthy folks, those with stable, well-paying jobs and businesses are glum. 

A few days back, a preeminent social worker and businessman said: “What surprises me is that even those people who have sufficient wealth and good career are pessimistic and leaving the country. It is hard to find any young people who are optimistic about their future these days. Most people do not want to stay in the country. Youths do not think about what will happen once they go abroad, they just want to leave this country.”

Nepali media are filled with the news stories of Nepalis illegally entering America through Panama Jungle, paying up to Rs 6m to manpower agents. There are also disturbing reports about Nepali men entering Russia on visit visas and joining the army to fight in the war against Ukraine. The government is now struggling to bring back the Nepalis serving in the Russian army, those held hostage by Ukraine and those killed in the war. According to the government's official figure, approximately 2,000 youths leave the country which does not include the people with visit visas.

Today if you meet college students, you can sense their disillusionment and frustration regarding the country and their future. Even those who are holding good jobs are disaffected. Scores of people who are in the civil service are leaving their job midway to go abroad. As for the professionals who are in their forties or fifties, they seem regretful for not leaving the country when they were young. Some of them are ready to go abroad, provided they get a good opportunity. Take one example of an established businessman in his fifties, who recently said: "My father is 93 years old, he recently suggested that I advise my children to go abroad so that I can also settle there later.”  It is not just the youths, even senior citizens do not see the future in this country.

So how did we get here? Political analyst Chandra Dev Bhatta says those who are in their early twenties are the ones who feel most insecure and do not see better prospects in this country. 

“The collective insecurity has become a defining attribute of our young generation,” he says. “This sense of negativity among our youngsters has been building up for quite some time.”

He adds: “Many factors, including the politics of the country, should be held responsible for this. We have reached the point where every third person is waiting to board the next flight. Nepal is going through what scholars call a ‘polycrisis’. The permanent nature of such a crisis may push the country into ‘permacrisis’ or permanent state of crisis. This is the type of state and politics we have developed during the last couple of decades.” 

The reasons for unhappiness among Nepali citizens are innumerable. Since the 1990s, Nepal’s economic conditions have not been satisfactory. The country has come to a standstill with regard to job creation. Absence of production-based economy has increased Nepal’s dependency towards outside. 

“With more than 25 percent of national GDP, remittances have become the national lifeline. Remittances certainly have played a crucial role in reducing poverty in Nepal, but the stark reality that it produces is such that Nepal’s survival is connected with the global labor market,” says Bhatta.

Corruption is another big reason as to why Nepal and its citizens are not faring well. In fact, corruption runs so deep, from the center to the grassroots, that it is hard to imagine a government agency providing the simplest of services to a citizen without bribe money. Political parties and their loyalists have taken over high level government jobs, and their corrupt practices mostly go unpunished.

Only those who are close to the halls of power are getting job opportunities, while the rest are forced to leave the country to feed their families. “Nearly half of the population is associated with some political parties so that they can get opportunities to earn money. These people are content with the current situation of Nepal. The rest of the population do not see the future in the country,” says Bhatta.

At the heart of all these problems is a lack of political stability. Frequent government changes, and building and dismantling of coalitions among political parties have left ordinary Nepalis convinced that the country’s politics is never going to be stable enough to ensure development and economic prosperity. Political parties and their leaders are still engaged in petty power struggles and have not taken any measures to improve governance and economy.  

Growing pessimism, particularly among the youth population, is also posing a serious threat to democracy. They are gradually losing their faith in the power of vote and political parties. 

Ramesh Parajuli, a sociologist affiliated with the research institution, Martin Chautari, says the nature of pessimism runs at both individual and societal level. “Both privileged and underprivileged groups are agitated in this country. It is obvious for the underprivileged to be agitated, but the privileged group is also feeling the same way,” he says.

Nepal’s politics, Parajuli says, is in a quagmire that has failed to chart a clear course of action. 

“Politics has not taken a clear direction partially due to the electoral system we have adopted. The same set of parties and politicians are in power for decades and continue to take privileges. They are heavily involved in corruption, and this has hampered the economic growth and opportunities, thereby creating pessimism,” he adds.  

Nepal has intensified diplomatic efforts with Russia to address the key concerns surrounding Nepali youths joining the Russian army. Speaking with ApEx, Foreign Minister NP Saud said the number of Nepali youths in the Russian army could be higher than the government estimates. 

“The number of casualties and missing could also be higher,” said Saud. Given the situation in Russia, the minister said that the government has taken a series of measures to stop Nepalis traveling to Russia as well as Ukraine through various transit countries. 

Russia has been enlisting Nepali men in its army and sending them to fight the war with Ukraine without the knowledge of Nepal. The presence of Nepalis in the Russian army was made known by the enlistees through their social media posts.

The government view is that the Kremlin should have stopped Nepalis from joining the Russian Army in the first place. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal said recently that approximately 200 Nepalis were serving in the Russian army, but other independent observers who have returned from the country say the number could be much higher. Till date, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed the death of six Nepalis. 

Nepal Police recently busted a gang involved in the smuggling of people to Russia, leading to the suspicion that many Nepali youths are currently serving in the Russian army. Minister Saud said the Nepal government will ask Russia to ascertain the number of Nepalis in its army, as well as the number of dead, injured and prisoners of war.

“We are in the process of taking up these issues with the concerned authorities,” he told ApEx.

In recent weeks, there have been increasing reports about the death and hostage taking of Nepalis serving in the Russian army. Videos of some Nepali hostages asking for help have also been released.  

As Nepal and Russia enjoy a cordial relationship and both countries have their residential embassies in each other’s capital, Nepal may not need support of a third country to repatriate its citizens.

 Even in the war-time, Nepali politicians have been visiting Russia. Prime Minister Dahal recently expressed his wish to visit Moscow and to host Russian President Vladamir Putin in Kathmandu.

In April, Chairman of National Assembly Ganesh Prasad Timalsina had also visited Russia. Soon after his visit, Russia handed over a paper to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs identifying the areas that Russia wants to engage with Nepal. There have been other high-level exchanges between the two countries as well.  According to some observers, as the two countries have been in constant communication and hosting each other’s delegations, nothing should stop them from talking about the Nepalis joining the Russian army.

Besides issuing a press statement on December 4, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not said anything about the death, injury or captivity of Nepali youths in the Russia-Ukraine war.On December 7, the National Human Rights Commission urged the government to rescue the Nepalis from Russia and Ukraine. But the response from the government agencies, including the Nepali Embassy in Moscow, has remained slow.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin too seems reluctant to address the issue. In response to BBC Nepali Service’s question, Putin’s office recently said that it was unaware about the recruitment of Nepalis in the Russian army.  “Foreign nationals cannot serve in the Russian army,” BBC quoted a senior Russian official as saying. With Russia clearly unwilling to engage, observers say the government should not hesitate to dispatch a high-level team to Moscow to investigate and resolve the matter.

The CPN-UML has completed its 18-day long roadshow (Sankalpa Yatra) along the Mid-hill districts, which saw an active participation from its chairman, KP Sharma Oli. Starting from Jhulaghat in Baitadi district of far-western Nepal and culminating at Chiwa Bhanjyang of Panchthar district in the east, this journey weaved through 26 districts.

Over 200 central-level leaders and a sea of passionate cadres flooded the campaign trail. Oli formally ended the campaign by hoisting the national flag at Chiwa Bhanjyang—a settlement along the Nepal-India border and the eastern gateway of the Mid-Hill Highway.

On the occasion, Oli rallied the party faithful, urging them to gear up for a simple majority triumph in the 2027 elections. With the party positioned as the second-largest and best by numerous challenges, the stakes are high. “The Mid-Hill Highway will be the mainstay for the development of the mid-hill region of Nepal. We can develop Chiwa Bhanjyang as a transit point with India to gain financial benefits,” Oli declared. 

He said the main objectives of the campaign were to transform people’s pessimism into optimism, to identify the developmental gaps in the mid-hill region, to develop a national vision, and to discourage anti-constitutional forces. The UML organized the campaign at a time when people’s frustration against the major political parties is at an all-time high and anti-constitution forces are intensifying their protests in the street.

Post last year’s national elections, the UML is the only party to launch a series of strategic campaigns to boost its organizational structure. Amid resistance from pro-identity activists, who staged strikes attempting to disrupt the campaign, the UML pressed on undeterred. Even in the face of sporadic incidents, the party proudly claims the campaign as a resounding success. Since 2008, identity-based federal structure advocates have painted UML as their adversary, a legacy rooted in the party's opposition to name the provinces based on ethnicity during the constitution drafting process. The party had taken the same position during the naming of the erstwhile Province 1. In Panchthar, obstacles were strategically placed on the road by pro-identity activists, yet these impediments failed to halt the UML’s march.

After last year’s national election, the UML has been on an organizational revitalization spree, with initiatives like the Mission Grassroots, which was aimed at addressing internal issues and wooing the youth. During the latest campaign, Oli informed the public about the party’s vision and criticized the misdeeds of the Dahal-led government.

But the UML itself faces internal strife and discontent, a challenge mirrored across major political entities in Nepal. As new political forces emerge and public frustration with established parties mounts, the UML sees the Sankalpa Yatra as a chance to intimately connect with the nation and resolve its internal quandaries. Party leaders emphasize that a comprehensive review of the campaign will guide future endeavors, signaling a commitment to adapt and evolve. The UML is preparing to fight the 2027 elections without forming any alliances.

While many have dubbed the latest UML campaign “Mission 2084,” the Nepali year when national elections will take place, Oli time and again has said that the party has to be ready for the midterm elections. 

Among the major parties, the UML has the most strong and robust organizational structure at the local level. But this strength is weakening due to internal disputes and dissatisfaction. The emergence of new political forces and growing frustration against the major political parties among the masses is a wake up call for all major parties, not just the UML. 

Leader Prithvi Subba Gurung underscores the campaign’s role in reinvigorating party leaders and cadres alike. The emergence of fresh political dynamics and the growing discontent with the political establishment pose formidable challenges for parties that have dominated the national political arena since the 1990s. 

Another leader Deepak Prakash Bhatta says the campaign provided an opportunity for the leaders to see the plights of people residing in the Mid-Hill region and rebuild trust. 

As the dust settles on this grand roadshow, only time will tell whether the UML’s campaign has succeeded in sustaining the people’s trust.

The Nepali Congress has become a visionless and missionless political party. Ask the ordinary party cadres about the party’s future and they will tell you there isn’t one.

This past week I interacted with several NC cadres and the key takeaway from these exchanges was that they no longer feel confident regarding the party’s future.

Frustration and hopelessness consume the party cadres these days and they put the blame squarely on the top leadership. They say the leaders on top have failed to rouse the party out from the status quo. Many local-level cadres are deserting to other parties, because they no longer believe that the NC can lead the country. 

Yes, there are those who take comfort in the knowledge that the Congress is still the largest party and that its president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, is poised to become the next prime minister. But most of them are affiliated to the Deuba camp and consider the party leadership to be above and beyond reproach.

The harsh reality is that the NC is losing its supporters left, right and center. The problems that the party faces today run from the center to the grassroots. The fact that the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government, in which the Congress serves as a key coalition partner, has been unable to revive the faltering economy and improve governance has only deepened the discontent among party cadres. 

There are strong voices inside the NC that the party should pull out its support to the Dahal government and forge a coalition with the CPN-UML, the main opposition. The UML has hinted that it could support Deuba as a prime minister if the NC leaves the current coalition. But even if this scenario comes to pass, it will only guarantee Congress’s leadership of government for the next four years. It will neither resolve the party’s organizational dysfunction, nor heal the factional rift. 
 

While the second-rung leaders of the NC and UML are said to be discussing a possible alliance between the two parties, there hasn’t been any substantial talks between Deuba and KP Sharma Oli, the UML chairman. 

At the same time, there are alternative views inside the NC that continuing the current alliance with Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center) will serve the party's interests in the long-run. Leaders who subscribe to this view believe that the party cannot retain its current position without electoral alliance with the Maoist in the next election. Their outlook goes against those who strongly believe that the Congress party should contest the next election as a single party. 

Leaders who think that the NC should solely fight the next election include the general secretary duo, Gagan Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Shara, and senior leader, Shekhar Koirala. 

A senior Congress leader who spoke with ApEx on condition of anonymity said: “Some of our friends are talking about contesting the next election as a single party, but the reality is completely different. Without an electoral alliance, the NC has no chance of winning.” 

If the NC were to enter the fray, there is a chance that the Maoist could ally with the UML—something that had occurred during the 2017 polls, which resulted in an unprecedented electoral drubbing for the NC.  

The Congress leader said that the 2023 by-election outcome in which the party lost in its historic stronghold is a warning sign for those leaders who are advocating for the party to contest the next election alone.  

Nevertheless, the proponents of the idea are trying to endorse the proposal from the party's Mahasamiti meeting. NC President Deuba, however, is dead set against endorsing such a proposal, as it could rattle the current coalition. Dahal could break the alliance with the NC, blowing Deuba’s chances of becoming prime minister. 

Following the 2022 general elections, in which the NC, Maoists and some fringe parties had contested as allies against the UML, the NC emerged as the largest national party. However, the Maoists did not do so well, polling in third after the UML with a big gap between them. And when Deuba refused to hand over the post of prime minister to Dahal as per their pre-election agreement, the latter had joined hands with the UML, leaving the NC desperate. 

The Maoist-UML coalition, however, did not last long as a result of power struggle between Dahal and Oli. The Congress eventually got back with the Maoists, offering Dahal the premiership for two years of the full five-year term and securing the post of president for the party. 

Deuba has no intention to irritate the Maoists and lose his chance of becoming the prime minister. Some leaders say Deuba’s blind ambition to occupy the executive’s chair while ignoring the pressing task of strengthening the party organization and support base is eating away at the NC’s reputation.  

Even a year after the general elections, the party's activities are almost zero. NC ministers in the Dahal-led government have not just failed to deliver, they have made a string of controversial decisions. Factional disputes have divided the party from the leadership to rank and file. On several national issues, the party has not made its official position known.

One of the serious blows to the party's reputation was the arrest of its senior leader and former home minister, Bal Krishna Khand, in a corruption case. There is an environment of fear within the party. Many party leaders do not dare criticize the Dahal-led government, because they fear they could be indicted in past corruption cases.

Top leaders' popularity graph, including that of youth leaders Thapa and Sharma, is at a historic low. For a long time, there have been calls from the NC cadres to the central leadership to reform the party, but there is a lack of unity among top leaders. The rivalry between Thapa and Koirala, two influential leaders after Deuba, is increasing, as both are eyeing for the post of party president.

“The Nepali Congress appears visionless, missionless and rudderless at the moment,” said Nainsingh Mahar, NC’s Central Working Committee member. 

Talks about holding a meeting of the party’s Mahasamiti, a high policy-making body, have not made any progress. Thapa and Sharma blame Deuba for repeatedly  postponing the crucial gathering. The Deuba faction, on the other hand, say that Thapa and Sharma, as general secretaries, have failed to make the necessary preparations for the meeting. 

“It is high time that the top leaders got their act together and came up with a clear vision for the party’s future,” said Mahar.  

It is a big task when ambition and rivalry run amok in the grand old party.

When a powerful 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck Jajarkot and Rukum West on November 3, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal rushed to the impacted zones, armed with food and medicines. Dahal's rapid response earned him a chorus of applause for his leadership in orchestrating swift search and rescue operations.

The commendable efforts didn't stop there; ministers, politicians and party cadres visited the quake-ravaged regions, signaling a collective commitment to stand by those affected. President Ram Chandra Poudel canceled his Europe trip to pay attention to the plight of the earthquake victims. At first it appeared that these ministers and political leaders were flocking to the scene, not merely for a photo op but to offer genuine sympathy and the promise of timely relief.

But the road to recovery has proven agonizingly slow. Despite weeks since the earthquake, the quest for proper shelter remains a distant dream for many. The government's relief measures, once hailed for their immediacy, now seem to fall short—leaving earthquake victims shivering, desperately awaiting warm clothes to shield them from the unforgiving cold. While major political parties, including Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), and Rastriya Swatantra Party, are competing to assist locals in erecting temporary shelters, their efforts smack of political grandstanding in trying to make them look like they are there to help. 

Government agencies boast of providing adequate relief materials, including blankets, to combat the chill. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The distributed low-quality tents prove ineffective against the biting cold, leading to tragic consequences. Disturbing reports trickle in from Jajarkot and Rukum West, painting a grim picture of lives lost due to cold-related illnesses in the lack of sufficient clothes to protect them. The Accountability Watch Committee has recorded 11 deaths due to the cold-related illness, including that of a 25-year-old new mother. 

Rajendra Karki, ApEx correspondent in Jajarkot, reports that new mothers, senior citizens, and children, exposed to the elements in flimsy tarpaulin shelters, grapple with multiple health issues as the bitter cold intensifies. They need immediate help, but the help is not forthcoming—neither from the government, nor from political parties. 

The number of people visiting local health institutions has increased after the earthquake. According to the data provided by the Jajarkot District Health Service Office, a total of 674 pregnant women, 282 new mothers, and 4,115 children under the age five are vulnerable. Similarly, 2,836 senior citizens, 1,065 chronic patients and 408 physically challenged people are at risk. But the government has not yet come to their aid. 

In Jajarkot’s Kushe Rural Municipality alone, 515 pregnant women and 230 new mothers are living under makeshift shelters. Officials say a similar situation exists in Nalgad Municipality, where 331 pregnant women and 374 new mothers are in dire straits.  

As lives hang in the balance, political parties have mobilized volunteers to construct temporary shelters, each vying for credit in a race against time. Our Jajarkot correspondent Karki says a volunteer team of CPN-UML has cleared the debris of around 500 houses but managed to build only a handful of temporary shelters for the victims. The UML has deployed more than 1,000 cadres to the affected regions under the leadership of its youth leader Kiran Poudel.

Not to be outdone, the Nepali Congress has also mobilized its own set of volunteers. The party’s general secretary duo, Gagan Kumar Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, and central working committee member, Pradeep Poudel, also recently visited the quake-hit areas to lend their hands in the rehabilitation efforts. 

Till now volunteers of political parties and other organizations have built approximately 700 temporary shelters. Various governmental and non-government organizations are also providing support to the Prime Minister’s Relief Fund. But as the spotlight remains fixed on political posturing, the grim reality of the earthquake victims persist. 

With 34,501 houses in Jajarkot and 16,909 in Rukum West completely ravaged, the urgency cannot be overstated. The issue of shelter and sustenance persists for the earthquake victims. Although the federal government dispatched funds to district offices, the trickle-down effect remains slow. Many rural municipalities falter in compiling a final list of victims and its verification—a prerequisite for the crucial Rs 25,000 cash meant for building temporary shelters.

Nearly a month after the disaster, the government has realized its lapses in the rehabilitation process. A Cabinet meeting on Wednesday decided to deploy Nepal Army, Armed Police Force and Nepal Police personnel for the construction of temporary shelters for the earthquake victims.

Experts say the government should already have efficient rehabilitation strategies in place, while noting that the decision to deploy security agencies to construct temporary shelters did not come soon enough. This belated response shows that the government and its relevant agencies have failed to take lessons from the 2015 earthquake.

Is turning the 1.5°C target from the Paris Climate Accord into reality still possible? The answer seems to be a resounding no. Despite strides in renewable energy, global temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions persist in shattering records.

The most recent Emissions Gap Report by the UN Environment Program (UNEFP) paints a stark picture, highlighting the urgent need for global low-carbon transformations. To achieve a 28 percent reduction in predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions for a 2°C pathway and a 42 percent reduction for a 1.5°C pathway, substantial action is required. Shockingly, global greenhouse gas emissions hit a new high of 57.4 Gigatonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent, marking a 1.2 percent increase from 2021 to 2022.

A damning report from UN Climate Change emphasizes that current national climate action plans fall short of restraining global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a crucial goal of the Paris Agreement. The report underscores the necessity of slashing greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

It's evident that major countries aren't doing enough to cut the emissions. The UN report says: “Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions—particularly high-income and high-emitting countries among the G20—will need to take more ambitious and rapid action and provide financial and technical support to developing nations.” 

On November 30, governments worldwide will convene in Dubai for COP28, the 28th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This critical summit aims to address the disproportionate impact of climate change on low- and middle-income countries, predominantly from the Global South.

Despite the 2010 pledge to provide $100bn annually to the least developed countries through the Global Climate Fund, the targets are unmet, with figures indicating less than 10 percent fulfilled. The broken promise of climate finance will be one of the major agenda in COP28. 

The conference is poised to conclude the inaugural Global Stocktake, assessing progress toward the Paris Agreement's goals, including limiting warming to 1.5°C or above pre-industrial levels, enhancing adaptations to climate change, and increasing climate finance flows to developing. 

A significant focus of COP28 is the transfer of technology and knowledge. Low-income countries, including Nepal, advocate for a post-2023 roadmap, aligning with the 1.5 °C target. To this end, the UN Secretary-General plans a pivotal event in 2025, where countries can present Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)  in line with the 1.5°C target.

Following COP27's agreement to establish a fund compensating vulnerable countries for climate-induced loss and damage, COP28 faces the challenge of defining and operationalizing this crucial fund. 

Compensation for climate change-induced loss and damage is a right, not a request for assistance, says Rupak Sapkota, foreign affairs advisor to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. 

“The prime minister will prominently draw the attention of the international community about this issue both at the main session as well as in other sideline events.”

There has been an agreement regarding the operationalization of Loss and Damage Fund and a framework in this regard was finalized on Nov 4 this year. But concerns persist over the World Bank's role as an interim host, prompting reservations from developing countries.

As the global community grapples with loss and damage, Nepal remains a vocal advocate, emphasizing the devastating impact of climate-induced disasters on its population. The COP28 agenda includes a final decision on the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund.

A briefing prepared by LDCs states: “Ensuring support to address loss and damage remains a critical issue of LDC, which is already suffering from the adverse impacts of climate change. This includes the cost (both economic and non-economic) resulting from devastating cyclones in Malawi, sea-level rise in Kiribati and Tuvalu, glacial lake outbursts in Nepal and Bhutan. The COP28 is expected to take a final call on operationalization of loss and damage funds.”

Nepal's 2021 national framework on climate change underscores the urgency, revealing that climate-induced disasters contribute to 65 percent of annual disaster-related deaths. With the average annual economic loss at 0.08 percent of GDP, and extreme events like the 2017 Tarai floods, causing a 2.08 percent loss. Besides, multiple other studies have predicted an increase in loss and damage caused by climate-induced disasters in the future. So the need for urgent action is undeniable.

Nepal is taking center stage in international forums, specifically highlighting the plight of mountainous regions. Prime Minister Dahal’s invitation to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to witness the impact of climate change in Nepal's Himalayas speaks volumes. Guterres is likely to raise the issue of mountains in COP28. 

To highlight the plight of the mountains In COP28, Nepal plans high-level events on the sidelines of the conference to champion the causes of mountainous countries. On Dec 2, Nepal is set to organize the event titled Call of Mountain: Who saves us from the climate crisis. 

Sapkota says Nepal is projecting itself as a champion of agendas of mountainous countries. 

“Though Nepal has been raising the issue of mountains for a long time, the international community has not paid much heed. This time the prime minister is trying to raise this issue in clear and unequivocal terms.” 

Here is a list of the main negotiating groups at the COP:

G77 (and China) 

This group of 77 countries was founded in 1964 and has since grown to 134 countries, often aligned with China.

It is the largest negotiating bloc and functions throughout the UN system, beyond the UNFCCC.

Its party chair rotates annually, with Cuba currently at the helm for the first time.

Least Developed Countries (LDCs) 

The LCD group consists of 46 countries and brings together—as its name suggests—the world’s poorest nations. It is currently chaired by Nepal.

The topics at stake in the COP negotiations sometimes result in the LDC taking a different viewpoint from the G77.

Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF)

CVF brings together 58 countries with a combined population of 1.5bn people that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of global warming.

Founded in 2009, it is currently chaired by Ghana.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

SIDS is a coalition founded in 1990 of 40 low-lying islands or archipelagos threatened by rising sea levels. It is chaired by Samoa.

Despite its small size, it is widely recognised for its vocal role in the climate talks.

European Union (EU)

The EU bloc groups the 27 member states to agree on one common negotiating position.

The presidency of the European Council is held by Spain until the end of the year.

Umbrella Group

This group formed following the 1997 adoption of the Kyoto Protocol and is made up of a number of developed nations: Australia, Britain, Canada, the United States, Iceland, Israel, Japan, Kazakhstan, New Zealand, Norway and Ukraine.

It is generally opposed to the G77 or the LCDs.

BASIC

The BASIC bloc groups four large newly industrialized nations: Brazil, South Africa, India and China.

It came together in 2009 during COP15 in Copenhagen. 

Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC)

AILAC was established as a formal negotiating group in 2012 and represents a coordinated position for the countries of the North and South, including Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala (its current chair), Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Chile. 

This list is prepared by AFP

The first ever elected Constituent Assembly of Nepal officially abolished the 240-old monarchy in 2008, but the pro-royalist forces, no matter how nebulous and insignificant, never disappeared. 

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, a right-wing, pro-Hindu political force led by Kamal Thapa, continued to advocate for restoration of monarchy and Hindu state. What the RPP was demanding at the time was nothing more than a mere whimper of protest. 

With just a handful of seats in parliament, it had no chance of bringing back monarchy. The three major political parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—thought as much. They couldn’t have been more wrong. Same goes for many political pundits, columnists and commentators. 

Today pro-royalist groups are no longer vestiges of the past. Initially subdued, their voices for restoration of monarchy and Hindu state have grown louder in recent years.

While former king Gyanendra Shah has not publicly supported the ongoing movement, he has been known to offer patronage to royalist parties and pro-Hindu groups. He leans towards royalist sentiments, but he hasn’t aligned with any specific party. It seems the royalist forces need Shah more than he needs them.

A close associate of Shah acknowledges the impracticality of restoring monarchy without major party consensus. “He sympathizes with those raising the issue, but he is also aware that they lack the political strength and mass appeal.”

In the latest pro-royalist rally led by medical businessman Durga Prasai, thousands flooded the streets of Kathmandu, advocating for monarchy and a Hindu state. Prasai enticed supporters with promises of loan forgiveness. Yet, his true motives seemed detached from the cause. He had nothing to do with monarchy and Hindu state. 

Prasai used individuals burdened by micro-finances as pawns to join the rally. He made restoration of monarchy and Hindu state part of his key demands to garner strength from some pro-royalist and Hindu groups. But his divisive rhetoric provided a pretext for the authorities to quell the movement. 

No matter the motive behind the rally spearheaded by Prasai, it has unmistakably bolstered and galvanized the groups that wish to bring back monarchy and Hindu statehood.    

Just days after Prasai held a mass rally in the streets of Kathmandu, former king Shah made a public appearance in Jhapa to unveil the statue of King Prithvi Narayan Shah, who is credited for unifying various principalities to create modern Nepal. The former king was greeted by thousands of enthusiastic supporters, a scene reminiscent of when he visited Bhaktapur in September. 

The events concerning Prasai’s rally in Kathmandu and Shah’s visit to Jhapa should not be taken lightly. Observers say they underscore the growing public frustration with major political parties and the current government's perceived failures. If major political parties and the government fail to mend their ways, individuals like Prasai could exploit the disenchanted masses to further discredit the current political system. 

Upbeat by the size of the crowd at Prasai’s rally, RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden said: “The foundation of the republic has been shaken. It will soon topple.”

Former king Shah, who had met Prasai a few months back, has remained silent on the recent rally in Kathmandu, fueling speculation about his involvement. Major parties suspect he may have played a role in backing the rally. 

Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has urged Shah to enter politics openly instead of operating behind the scenes.

“You are free to register a political party, contest the election and secure the two-thirds majority needed to overturn the current system,” Thapa challenged Shah at a recent event.

As the number of protesters increases, questions arise: Is the discontent aimed at the political system or a frustration with corrupt and ineffective leaders? Lawmaker Amresh Singh argues it's the latter, emphasizing the need for better governance.

“The weaknesses of the current crop of leaders from major political parties are the reason why regressive forces are targeting the republican system,” he says. “But one must make the distinction that this is the manifestation of frustration against the political parties, not against the current political system.”

Now royalist parties too are planning to hold mass rallies demanding the reinstatement of monarchy and Hindu state. Some observers suggest that external forces, such as India's Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, may be supporting the movement, urging major parties to remain vigilant while also making sincere efforts to correct their ways.  

Congress, UML and Maoist Center already face challenges from newly formed political forces, particularly the Rastriya Swatantra Party which pulled off a major victory at their electoral bastions in the 2022 general elections. 

Before that the three parties were stunned during the local election in which independent candidates, such as Balendra Shah and Harka Sampang, won the mayoral seats in Kathmandu and Dharan. Pro-royalist forces like the RPP, under the leadership of Lingden, are also enjoying a moment of resurgence right now.  

All these developments do not bode well for the three major parties who have been dominating the national politics and governance since 2008, with little to show for. 

Ever since the country adopted a federal republic set-up, the Congress, UML and Maoist have all led the government, but they have little to show for it. Unemployment, corruption, poor governance and political instability have thrived under their rule.     

The delayed response from major political parties and the government to address genuine issues, such as financial exploitation by micro-finances and rampant corruption, exacerbates people's frustrations. It's crucial for parties to address these root causes seriously.

Youth leaders within major parties acknowledge internal problems but lack the capacity to bring change. 

“If the current leadership continues to carry on with its current attitude and working style, we are sure to face a difficult time in the next election,” says Nainsingh Mahar, a Nepali Congress Central Working Committee member.