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Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is keen to conclude the transitional justice process under his leadership—and on his own terms. Ever since he came to power last year, he has been striving to conclude the long drawn-out peace process. Besides trying to bring internal stakeholders on board the process, he has also been trying hard to win support of the international community.

For the same purpose, he registered an amendment bill on the transitional justice Act in Parliament, but he failed to convince the conflict victims as well as the international community. A few days back, he expedited the talks with the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML to forge a consensus on contentious issues of the transitional justice process. He even offered some upper house seats to the main opposition, UML, but to no avail. 

But the reality is that the transitional process is unlikely to move ahead under Dahal’s leadership. The government is preparing to endorse the amendment bill from Parliament from the next session, but it is unlikely due to the position taken by UML and the international community. 

It seems the UML has hardened its position regarding transitional justice. In a recent interview with ApEx, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli said that since Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress was the prime minister during the insurgency period and Dahal was leading the armed insurgency, one cannot expect a fair and just transitional justice delivery under their leadership.  

Oli went further by stating that the Maoist party aims to conclude the process by neglecting the suffering of the war victims. The key issue, the opposition leader added, lies in addressing the grievances of the victims, ending impunity, and establishing the truth before moving towards reconciliation.

Regarding the contents of the amendment bill, there are concerns from the international community. According to the Human Rights Watch, the bill expands the list of violations covered by amnesties, including those crimes that cannot be forgiven under the international law. 

For example, the bill has proposed a two-year statute of limitations on rape complaints. It also prevents prosecution for cases of enforced disappearance, which became illegal under the Nepali law in 2018. The bill has also failed to address the issue of child soldiers. 

The Nepali Congress, a key coalition partner in the Dahal government, has not shown any eagerness to resolve the transitional justice process, nor does it have any concrete position on the contentious issues of the bill. 

It appears that the fate of the peace process hinges only on the positions taken by the UML and the Maoists.

Over the past year, Dahal has been trying to secure the support of the international community in his plan to conclude the transitional justice process. He even tried to secure the support of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, but the latter reiterated the position of the international community in his address to Nepal’s federal parliament. 

He clearly said that the UN stands ready to support the victim-centered process and its implementation in line with international standards and Nepal’s Supreme Court rulings. “Transitional justice has the greatest chance of success when it is inclusive, comprehensive, and has victims at its heart,” Guterres told the parliament.

The message of the international community is loud and clear: there should not be amnesty on serious human rights violations. But the Nepali leaders, through the use of vague and unclear language and maintaining a strong influence in the transitional justice bodies, are seeking amnesty even on serious violations.

Over the past eight years, two transitional justice mechanisms—Truth and Reconciliation Commission and Commission for Investigation of Enforced Disappearance Cases—have hardly made any progress, except for receiving around 63,000 complaints from conflict victims.  The two bodies are currently without any officer-bearers, which has severely affected their works. 

Although a parliamentary sub-committee was entrusted to hammer out the differences concerning the transitional justice process, it is clear that only the major political parties can take the final call.

Since 2006, political parties of Nepal have been using the transitional justice issue as a bargaining chip to reach to power. The Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have long been using the peace process as a leverage to negotiate power-sharing deals with the Maoists. 

This tendency shows that the basic approach of the major parties towards approaching the transitional justice process is flawed. Instead of delivering justice to the victims of conflicts, major parties are using the peace process as a tool to reach power. 

In case it fails to convince the UML, the Dahal government is planning to endorse the transitional justice amendment bill through a majority vote. But that is unlikely to bring about any positive outcome, as was evident eight years ago. 

The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) has registered 64,000 complaints from the conflict victims to date. So far, it has managed to conduct preliminary investigations of only around 4,000 cases. Around 3,000 cases have been left in abeyance due to a lack of concrete evidence. 

Similarly, the Commission for Investigation of Enforced Disappearance Cases has received a total of 3,288 complaints. Out of these, 277 were transferred to the TRC, 292 were put on hold, 136 complaints were found to be duplicative, and 48 cases were resolved. Presently, the commission grapples with 258 active complaints.

The year 2023 witnessed a significant movement of Nepali citizens seeking opportunities, education, and a new chapter in their lives. The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) has unveiled compelling insights into the diverse reasons and destinations that have shaped the migration trends of Nepalis.

A staggering total of 1,603,836 Nepalis embarked on journeys to different corners of the globe in 2023. What makes this migration wave intriguing is the varied purposes that propelled these individuals to leave the country.

Among the migrants, 70,915 Nepalis chose to make a new home abroad, embracing permanent residency. This group, comprising 36,663 males and 34,251 females, reflects a growing desire for stability and long-term settlement beyond their homeland. Political instability, poor economy and lack of job and business opportunities are driving many individuals and families to migrate. 

The pursuit of employment opportunities also led a significant number, 808,415 to be exact, to venture abroad under employment visas. Notably, 271,088 Nepalis landed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), signaling the lure of job prospects in the Middle East. While these migrant workers are an integral part of Nepal’s remittance-reliant economy, their departure also reveals the sorry state of rural Nepal, where villages are either empty or populated only by women, children and elderly citizens. 

Government ministers and politicians boast of road, education and electricity access in far-flung regions of the country, but the reality is that the number of beneficiaries is fast dwindling. Excess migration has also caused the farmland in many parts of the country to go uncultivated.   

Besides job opportunities, education is another key catalyst that is prompting Nepali youths to visit abroad, with 108,542 Nepalis opting for student visas. The surge in applications for no objection letters for overseas studies suggests a growing appetite for educational pursuits beyond national borders. It is important to note that until and unless the government creates career opportunities at home, foreign educated youths are less likely to return to the country. 

The top destinations for Nepali migrants in 2023 spanned across India, Qatar, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Japan, the US, the UK, Kuwait, South Korea, Thailand, Canada, China, and Hong Kong. This diverse list underlines the global footprint of Nepali citizens seeking opportunities that are not available at home.

The 2021 census reveals a notable shift, with the number of women migrating abroad increasing by a remarkable 71 percent over the past decade. Out of the 2,169,478 Nepalis residing abroad, 404,103 are females, reflecting a changing trend in gender dynamics among migrants. This also comes with its own sets of challenges, particularly concerning trafficking of women. 

Stories about Nepali women getting trafficked to an unknown country and getting abused and tortured are all too common. Human trafficking rackets under the guise of overseas job agencies have long been supplying Nepali women, mainly to the Middle East, by luring them with the promise of well-paying jobs. 

A closer look at the data reveals a spike in Nepalis heading to countries like Poland, Malta, and Portugal. The allure of permanent residency has drawn 10,638 Nepalis to Portugal, 5983 to Malta, and 5834 to Poland. Recently, there have been reports about Nepalis paying exorbitant amounts of money to the so-called foreign employment companies and agents to enter Europe and North America. 

Reports have also emerged about Nepalis being recruited in Russia's army in its conflict with Ukraine. The numbers indicate that 1,795 Nepalis visited Russia, with the majority under visit visas, since the war broke out in February 2022. Additionally, 95 Nepalis ventured to Ukraine during these tumultuous times. Nearly a dozen Nepalis have lost their lives in the war and many more are said to be injured or missing, but the government has done little to investigate their whereabouts and bring them back home. 

The 2023 migration trend paints a stark reality of Nepal, a country caught in a deep mire of corruption, poor economy, political instability and unemployment. It also paints a complex tapestry of dreams, challenges and aspirations of its citizens. 

In Nepal’s bicameral parliament, the National Assembly or the upper house consists of 59 members. Of them, 56 members are elected through the electoral college and three, including at least one woman, is nominated by the President on the recommendation of the government. 

Ideally, the NA is distinct from the lower house, which is dominated by politicians. It serves as an eclectic council of experts and scholars that advise the lower house or the House of Representatives during the lawmaking process. It plays a vital role in holding the HoR and the government to account. The upper house is also a permanent body, and the term of its member can last for a maximum of six years. One-third members retire every two years and elections are held accordingly.  

As election for 19 seats in the NA is set to take place on Jan 25, the major political parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—are engaged in an intense horse-trade to secure positions for leaders who couldn't find their way into the lower house. They have turned the upper house into a platform to accommodate the leaders who lost the election or did not get a chance to enter the lower house under the proportional representation category. 

Instead of appointing experts as envisioned by the constitution, the major political parties have hijacked the upper house and turned it into a losers’ club. As politicians are getting elected under the expert’s quota, the NA is failing to perform its true duty, and the political parties are endorsing controversial bills.

On Monday, the cross-party leaders registered their candidacy for the NA election. The Nepali Congress has fielded its senior leader Krishna Prasad Sitaula for one of the seats. Sitaula, who played a vital role in Nepal’s peace process, lost the 2022 parliamentary elections against Rastriya Prajatantra Party Chairman Rajendra Lingden. His candidacy has drawn criticism both inside and outside the party.

Some critics are of the view that it is wrong to field somebody in the NA election who had lost the general election just a year ago. Others are calling out the Congress party for repeating the same old leaders, instead of introducing fresh faces. 

Sitaula and his party is eyeing for the post of the upper house chair, as the incumbent NA Chairman Ganesh Prasad Timalsina’s term is ending in April. Inside the party, Sitaula’s candidacy has been criticized by leaders including the general secretary duo, Bishwa Prakash Sharma and Gagan Kumar Thapa. 

“There are many others who are eligible to become members. There are leaders who have made a lot of contribution to the party and the country,” said Sharma. He noted that the party has failed to implement the provision of inclusion in its truest sense.

Thapa also expressed dissatisfaction over the party’s NA election candidates. “Our constitution has envisioned the representation of under privileged groups and experts in the National Assembly. The party’s decision goes against the standard that we set ourselves,” he said. 

The Nepali Congress is not the first and the only party that has failed to honor the spirit of the upper house. The incumbent Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Narayan Kaji Shrestha from the CPN (Maoist Center) is another notable political figure to enter the NA after an electoral loss. Similarly, senior political leader Bam Dev Gautam, formerly of the UML, is also serving as an upper house member after losing the HoR election. 

The current ruling alliance, including the Congress, Maoist Center and CPN (Unified Socialist), has forged an electoral alliance, while the main opposition, CPN-UML, has decided to fight alone. The ruling coalition is likely to win almost all the seats. Although Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal wanted to accommodate the UML, his attempt did not yield any result due to the objection from some coalition partners. 

Regarding the appointments to be made by the President, the parties are unsurprisingly preparing to recommend more politicians, instead of the experts. Since its formation in 2018, there has been rare appointment of experts in the upper house. With politicians ruling the roost, the NA is no longer the conscience keeper of parliament. It has failed to function independently due to the excessive influence of the government and political parties.  

The key functions of NA

• Providing expert service
• Promulgation of laws
• Holding government accountable
• Regulation and issuing directives
• Conducting parliamentary hearing

India’s Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar is arriving on Thursday for a two-day official visit to Nepal. The main objective of his visit is co-chairing the 7th meeting of India-Nepal Joint Commission, the highest body mandated to review the entire issues concerning bilateral partnership and direct the concerned authorities to remove the bottlenecks, if any.

Though established in 1987, the commission remained largely inactive till 2014. It resumed the work thereafter, albeit irregularly. Foreign ministers of the two countries co-chair this mechanism. The commission is set to review the overall state of bilateral relations and various areas of mutual cooperation between Nepal and India, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  

Jaishankar will also meet President Ram Chandra Poudel, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and other prominent political leaders during his stay. Regarding the visit, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has said that Nepal is a priority partner of India under its Neighborhood First Policy and that the visit is in keeping with the tradition of high-level exchanges between two close and friendly neighbors.

The commission meeting is expected to be instrumental in further enhancing the economic and development partnership between the two countries. 

The Indian external affairs minister visiting Nepal also holds political and diplomatic significance. Though India still has a deep influence in Nepal’s internal politics, over the past few years, it has been maintaining a low-profile regarding Nepal’s internal political situation. As the Dahal-led government—backed by India—is becoming unpopular and there are strong voices inside the Nepali Congress for a change in government, Jaishankar will also try to read the pulse of Nepali politics during his sojourn. Prime Minister Dahal wants the continuation of New Delhi support to keep the current coalition intact.

Jaishankar is arriving on the heels of a flurry of visits mainly from the US and China.  In 2023, there was a series of visits to Nepal by high-level US officials and the representatives of Communist Party of China. Compared to the US and China, visits from and to New Delhi were few. The Narendra Modi government naturally has geopolitical and strategic concerns, given the interests shown to Nepal by Washington and Beijing of late.

New Delhi is wary of growing Chinese influence in Nepal and is closely watching Kathmandu’s relationship with Beijing. It is also concerned over the Kathmandu-Washington ties, even though India and the US share similar interests with Nepal, particularly countering China’s influence.  

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and its sister organizations, including the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, also have a special interest in Nepal at a time when some political parties and groups are campaigning for the reinstatement of Hindu state.

Development and economic partnership between Nepal and India is gaining momentum after Dahal’s ascension to power. During Dahal’s India visit in May last year, there was notable progress between Nepal and India on energy cooperation. India has agreed to purchase Nepal’s electricity and also allow import to Bangladesh via India. Several connectivity projects between the two countries, including Raxaul-Kathmandu railway, also made significant strides.  

Former Ambassador and political analyst Bijaya Kanta Karna says Jainshankar’s visit should be taken as a continuation of Prime Minister Dahal’s India visit.

During his India trip, Dahal focused on building trust at the top political level and focusing on economic partnership while keeping the key contentious issues at bay.

 Karna said The energy cooperation in particular has given the message to the international investors that there is an appropriate environment for the investment in Nepal. He added that the visit by the Indian external affairs minister will reinforce the development and economic partnership between the two countries.  

The former Indian ambassador to Nepal said that the key purpose of Jaishankar’s visit is to review the bilateral relationship and, in particular, to strengthen mutually beneficial economic partnership.

The previous six meetings of the commission were held in New Delhi last year. These meetings discussed boundary and border management, connectivity and economic cooperation, trade and transit, power and water resources, and culture and education, among other issues. 

In the last few years, Nepal and India signed around 25 MOUs and agreements in various sectors of bilateral cooperation, including transit, petroleum, capacity building, railways, border infrastructure, education and electricity.

Key issues 

• Long-term power trade 
• Trilateral power agreement 
• Transmission lines 
• Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project 
• Trade and investment 
• Extension of MotihariAmlekhgunj petroleum pipeline in Chitwan and Siliguri 
• Cooperation in the agriculture 
• Boundary
• Air entry point  
•  Problem of flood and inundation
• Small-grant development projects 

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed the death of three more Nepali men in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. They have been identified as Hari Prasad Aryal of Syangja, Bhar Bahadur Shah of Kailali and Rajkumar Giri of Dhading. Earlier, the government had confirmed the deaths of seven Nepali nationals. 

There is a widespread concern that there could be many more Nepali casualties that have gone unreported. A few weeks back, the government had said that at least 100 Nepalis were missing and scores of others were injured. 

The Nepal government has urged Moscow to urgently provide information about the number of Nepalis serving in the Russian army, stop recruitment of Nepali nationals and facilitate the repatriation of Nepalis killed in the war. A growing number of people have been visiting the Ministry of Foreign Affairs these days, with a request to locate their missing loved ones in Russia. 

So far, Russia has not responded to Nepal’s concern. The Nepal government is partly responsible for this situation. Soon after the war broke out in 2022, the Nepal government didn’t issue any advisory for those planning to visit Russia or Ukraine. Even when news broke out about Nepali nationals fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war, the government showed no urgency to inquire the respective embassies of Russia and Ukraine about the matter. 

The government was compelled to act only after reports about Nepalis dying in the war started emerging through friends, families and social media. Various national and international media also covered these incidents. Soon after, police busted a ring involved in sending Nepalis to Russia on visit visas to fight the war with Ukraine.  

Now, the government is grappling to ascertain the actual number of Nepalis serving in the Russian army and their current status. Recently, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal said there could be approximately 200 Nepalis serving in the Russian army, yet officials hint at a possibly higher figure. Compounding the issue is the situation of Nepali hostages held by the Ukrainian army. Bibek Khatri, Siddhartha Dhakal, Bikas Rai and Pratik Pun are among those captured by the Ukrainian army. The talks for their release have hit an impasse. 

The government is now on a frantic mission, attempting to discern the status of its citizens fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war, exacerbated by the lack of cooperation from Moscow. This has prompted a tightening of visit visa rules, with a mandatory No Objection Letter (NoC) for travel to Russia and other transit countries. Shockingly, certain manpower agencies, according to some media reports, persist in training Nepali nationals for enlistment in the Russian army.

Though Moscow says foreigners cannot be allowed to join the Russian army, President Vladamir Putin in 2022 signed a decree making it easier for foreigners to obtain Russian citizenship if they join the army. As reported by the Moscow Times, the decree said: “Foreign citizens or stateless persons who sign a contract to serve in the Russian Armed force… for at least one year and take part in military operations for at least six months, will be eligible for the simplified application procedures.”  

Recently, Putin ordered the country’s military to increase the number of troops by nearly 170,000 to a total of 1.32 million. According to the Associated Press, Putin’s decree was released by the Kremlin on Friday and took force immediately. It brings the overall number of Russian military personnel to about 2.2 million, including 1.32 million troops.

Beyond Nepal, Russia's recruitment of foreign nationals, including those from Cambodia and Cuba, adds a global dimension to the conflict. Reports indicate Moscow's pursuit of formal labor contracts with other nations, underscoring the far-reaching consequences of this recruitment strategy.

Foreign policy experts emphasize the need for high-level communication between Kathmandu and Moscow to resolve Nepal's concerns. As Nepal's Ambassador to Moscow Milan Tuladhar engages in talks, a former foreign minister stresses the need for political leadership to step in. If needed, they say, Nepal should ask big countries such as India, the US, and China to talk with Moscow and Kyiv about Nepal’s concerns.

The government has formed a high-level commission to probe the killing of two young men—Birendra Shah and Sujan Raut—in a clash between South Korea job aspirants and police in  Balkumari, Lalitpur, on Friday.   

The three-member panel was formed following a nationwide outrage by the incident, which not only exposed a severe communication lapse between the law enforcement agency and the district administration office, but also the lack of restraint within the police force.   

A day after the incident, the government suspended the chief district officer and the police chief of Lalitpur. But this knee-jerk reaction without presenting any concrete evidence has ignited a blame game among government agencies, instead of an earnest quest for truth and accountability.

While the government has made a perfunctory gesture of providing Rs 1m each to the grieving families, the demand for truth and justice remains unmet. Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha to resign on moral grounds. 

“It is futile to take action against police officers, the home minister should take responsibility and resign,”  said UML lawmaker Rajendra Rai. He added that the investigation commission can work independently only after the home minister has stepped down.  

Another UML lawmaker Krishna Gopal Shrestha also echoed Rai’s sentiment. He said the moral responsibility for the Balkumari tragedy falls squarely on the shoulders of Home Minister Shrestha.  

This call for resignation, however, faces resistance in a political landscape where officials are more inclined to deflect blame than admit mistakes. This call for resignation, however, faces resistance in a political landscape where officials are more inclined to deflect blame than admit mistakes.

A government official, let alone a minister, resigning out of moral conscience is unheard of in Nepal. They would rather put the blame on others than admit to their own mistake.  

Days have passed since the tragic incident, yet a clear narrative remains elusive. Conflicting reports suggest that the security personnel opened fire either in response to protesters setting fire to the car of Transport Minister Prakash Jwala or before such an incident occurred. Amidst the confusion, it's evident that communication failures between the police and the minister's security officer played a pivotal role.

Transport Minister Jwala's changing statements further muddy the waters, as he initially denied being in the car during the incident, only to later acknowledge it when video footage surfaced where protesters are seen taking control of his car and forcing him to come out. It is clear that the minister tried to lie about him not being in the car to keep himself out of the incident, because police have been saying that the situation escalated due to the minister’s arrival at the scene of the protest.    

Nepal Police chief Basanta Bahadur Kunwar told the Parliamentary Committee for State Affairs and Good Governance that the incident could have been averted if minister Jawala had not used the route where the protest was happening. But he had no clear response on why and when his officers resorted to firing upon the protesters. 

The parliamentary committee has instructed the government to investigate if and how minister Jwala’s car passing through the protest area made the situation worse. 

“The Parliament wants to know the exact role minister Jwala had played in this incident,” demanded Ram Hari Khatiwada, the committee chair. 

The committee also inquired Home Minister Shrestha about the Balkumari incident. He vowed to the committee that his ministry would take necessary action against the responsible party based on the findings of the high-level probe commission. 

But there is little optimism that the commission’s report will be revelatory, or identify the individuals truly responsible for the incident. Whenever the government forms a high-level investigation commission in Nepal, historically, it has turned out to be a diversion tactic to steer the public attenuation. After all, the reports of several high-level probe panels are yet to be made public.  

Additionally, there is a high chance of such panels failing to do their work in a fair and independent manner due to the influence of the political parties. The high-level probe commission formed to investigate the gold smuggling case from the Tribhuvan International Airport is one shining example. The commission, formed three months ago, is yet to prepare its report. Besides forming the commission, the government has not taken any measures to control gold smuggling. 

Even in those cases where the probe panels have submitted their reports, there is no single instance of the government taking action based on the recommendations of those reports.  

Balaram KC, former Supreme Court justice, said the government is simply trying to pacify the agitated society by forming the probe panel.

“In Nepal, we form a high-level probe panel for every case, which you do not see in other countries. Highly powered panels are only formed in rare and immensely significant cases,” said KC. “Our tendency to rely on high-level commissions clearly shows that the rule of law is not working.” 

Govt, victims’ families sign four-point deal

A four-point agreement has been reached between the government and the families of Birendra Shah and Sujan Raut, who were killed in police shooting in Balkumari, Lalitpur

, on Friday. As per the agreement, the government will provide employment to one member of each family, facilitate the provision of additional relief and take the initiative to declare the deceased as martyrs.

It is mentioned in the letter of agreement that the Ministry of Home Affairs will arrange for the bodies of the deceased to be taken to the respective districts. The agreement was signed by Umakant Adhikari, the Under Secretary of the Ministry of Home Affairs on behalf of the Government of Nepal, and Tek Bahadur Shah, the father Shah, and Tek Bahadur Katuwal, on behalf of Raut.

As we step into 2024, it's crucial to reflect on the tumultuous journey of 2023, a year marked by degeneration and pessimism for major political parties — the Nepal Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center). These parties faced strong criticism from both their cadres and the public at large, revealing a deep-seated dissatisfaction with their performance.

Sher Bahadur Deuba, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and KP Sharma Oli, who are at the helm of these parties, find themselves wrestling with tarnished public images and a looming sense of party fragility.

At the start of the year, the Nepali Congress worked hard to dismantle the alliance between the Maoist and UML. By throwing its support behind Dahal as prime minister, NC succeeded in positioning itself as a key coalition player. The elevation of Ram Chandra Poudel as the country's president further solidified its influence. While these accomplishments are touted as major wins, the party struggles to instill hope and optimism among its ranks, contending with persistent intra-party rifts and organizational challenges.

Deuba continued to prevail in the party’s decision making process. Despite being a dominant power in all three levels of government, leaders and cadres largely feel that the party is on a downward journey. They are of the view that people are gradually losing their confidence in the major parties due to the government’s failure to deliver.

In the face of this, a disconcerting trend emerges—local-level leaders and cadres are feeling the heat from new parties and the resurgence of royalist forces. The once-enthusiastic cadres are noticeably absent from party activities, even as the leadership attempts to renew active memberships. 

A senior NC leader said that though the party has launched a campaign of renewing membership, a large chunk of cadres has not shown interest in it. This is very concerning for the future of the party.

The call for a special campaign to breathe life into the party structures falls on deaf ears, further fueling concerns about the party's downward trajectory. In order to provide an ideological and organizational guideline, the NC was supposed to organize its much-awaited Mahasamiti meeting, but it has been postponed time and again. This year, the party also saw the emergence of a third faction led by youth leaders including Gururaj Ghimire and Madhu Acharya. The faction has been running parallel activities inside the party.

This is not a good sign for the NC, which is already grappling with factionalism. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala and General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa are competing to wrest the reins of power from Deuba, whose supporters dominate the party committees.  The rivalry between senior Koirala and Thapa has further affected the party’s organization. 2023 was also the year the NC saw one of its influential leaders Bal Krishna Khand arrested in the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal. It was a serious blow to the party’s public image. Khand’s arrest also raised fear among several other leaders who were allegedly involved in corruption activities in the past. 

The internal strife within the Congress is not unique; the UML also grapples with its share of setbacks. Losing power both at the center and in provincial governments, the party attempts to rejuvenate itself in the face of challenges from emerging parties. Throughout the year, the party tried to dismantle the current government by offering premiership to NC, but to no avail.

Soon after the elections, the UML launched a grassroots campaign in order to resolve the party's internal problems and other issues.  At the end of the year, it launched the Sankalpa Yatra (Resolution March),  which covered the mid-hill districts of Nepal. According to the UML, the march helped to counter forces that have ramped up their activities in recent years. But the truth is despite the hard efforts, the party still faces significant challenges. The "Mission-84" initiative signals a renewed focus on the elections to be held in 2084 BS (2027), with aspirations to emerge as the largest party. However, corruption scandals involving senior leaders cast a shadow over their efforts.

On the Maoist front, 2023 witnessed a lack of substantive change. While the party launched a nationwide campaign to bolster organizational strength, the notable absence of leaders and cadres raised eyebrows. Despite facing criticism, Dahal's dominance within the party stifles significant dissent against the government.

In essence, 2023 posed significant threats to the major parties. Despite holding onto power, a pervasive sense of vulnerability lingers. The specter of the 2027 national elections looms large, and the three parties feel that regressive forces are actively trying to dismantle the 2015 constitution. 

As we step into 2024, the apathy of top leaders in mending their ways suggests a continuity of challenges. The failing performance of the Dahal-led government on economic and other fronts is poised to escalate people's frustration, further eroding the major political parties' standing. The year ahead will be critical for the three major parties, as they will have to resolve their own internal disputes as well as work with renewed vigor to meet the aspirations of the people.

As 2023 draws to a close, ApEx looks back at how Nepal conducted its foreign policy and what it looks like in 2024. Unlike in the years prior, Nepal had a rather smooth relationship with major powers—US, China and India—in 2023. This was largely because Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal made it a point to not raise the long-standing issues with these countries. Though the CPN (Maoist Center) and its primary ruling ally Nepali Congress have different outlooks on foreign policy, there were no serious disagreements when it came to the conduct of foreign policy.

Dahal, who came to power at the end of 2022, paid official visits to India and China, and attended the 78th United Nations General Assembly in the US, where he engaged with several world leaders. Amid these engagements, Nepal faced new challenges, such as the tragic Hamas attack that claimed the lives of 10 Nepali students, with one still held hostage. Additionally, Russia recruited Nepali nationals into its army, placing them at the forefront of the conflict with Ukraine.

But overall, Nepal’s bilateral engagements in the year 2023, particularly concerning the US, India and China, were smooth. Reciprocally, all three countries engaged with Nepal through exchanges of the visits at different levels. 

Throughout the year, the US sent its high-level officials to engage with the Nepal government as well as a wide section of Nepali society. Similarly, Chinese officials mainly from the Communist Party of China visited Kathmandu. China also invited scores of Nepali leaders and people from diverse fields to participate in various events. With India, the Dahal administration adopted a cautious approach. During his India trip in May, he steered clear from raising crucial issues such as border dispute, Eminent Persons’ Group report, and the 1950 treaty with his counterpart Narendra Modi. Instead, the prime minister focused on development cooperation, primarily on the energy sector.

India has agreed to buy electricity from Nepal as well as allow energy export to Bangladesh. The three countries are working on regional energy cooperation. 

“The relationship between the two countries has gathered momentum, mainly in the areas of energy trade, connectivity and security,” said an Indian official. 

One of the landmark achievements of the Nepal-US cooperation was the formal implementation of projects related to the construction of transmission lines and road upgradation under the US’ Millennium Corporation Challenge (MCC) program. The US extensively engaged with the Nepal government to make this happen, because even after the parliamentary endorsement of the MCC Nepal Compact, there were suspicions about smooth project implementation, mainly due to China’s objection.

There are still doubts regarding timely completion of the MCC projects due to technical and bureaucratic hurdles, and the US has said that there should be discussions in Washington about possible extension of the project deadlines. 

The US also pledged to further assist Nepal through development cooperation and investments in a meeting held between Foreign Minister Narayan Prakash Saud and the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. As the US is advancing its influence in the Indo-Pacific region, it is in its interest to engage more with Nepal, which is strategically located between China and India. Advancing democracy everywhere is one of the key aspects of the Biden administration’s foreign policy, so the US is engaging with Nepal on this front as well.

According to US officials, though Nepal’s democracy is a beacon for the entire South Asia, failure to make progress on the economic front may put it in jeopardy. Washington wants to advance economic cooperation to support the democratic process. 

During Minister Saud’s visit to the US, American officials showed renewed interest in Nepal’s tourism, agriculture, and health sectors.

In China, there are more optics than real substances. During the prime ministership of Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress, the level of trust in the bilateral relationship between Nepal and China had reached a low point. Dahal’s ascendance to power helped mitigate the environment of mistrust, as Beijing naturally feels more comfortable with a communist prime minister in Nepal.

During his trip to China, Prime Minister Dahal did not raise some issues that Beijing perceives as sensitive, including alleged border encroachment. He went a step ahead by agreeing that Nepal opposes Taiwan’s independence and the one-China principle to convince Beijing that he is serious about China’s security interests.  

China had some high expectations with the Dahal government, such as clear progress in the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) and endorsement of its Global Security Initiatives (GSI), but Dahal—despite appreciating GSI in private talks with Beijing officials—did not sign any agreement on those issues. Dahal may have pledged to make some progress on BRI in the future but it depends on how his relationship evolves with New Delhi and Beijing. 

“The prime minister did not make progress on BRI because he believed it would upset New Delhi and Washington,” said a government official.

Besides bilateral engagement, PM Dahal also engaged in some multilateral forums such as COP28 in Dubai and the United Nations General Assembly in the US. The primary focus of Dahal was the impacts of climate change in the Himalayas and resolving the transitional justice process.

Looking ahead to 2024, all three countries will continue their engagement with Nepal, though India and the US will be preoccupied with national elections. Uncertainties loom in the US, with speculations about Donald Trump's potential return. Nepal’s relations with these countries will hinge on major-power dynamics, with ongoing debates about whether Nepal should abandon its non-alignment policy amid growing global geopolitical tensions. This debate is likely to intensify as big countries vie for Nepal’s alignment in their orbits.