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On March 4, Pushpa Kamal Dahal of CPN (Maoist Center) broke alliance with the Nepali Congress (NC) to form a new governing coalition with the CPN-UML. At the time, many political analysts saw this as a significant step towards left unity and eventual unification of communist parties. While UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli was not particularly enthusiastic, senior leaders from his party the Maoist Center were optimistic about the unification.

It was assumed that both Oli and Dahal had recognized that the split of the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party (NCP) was a mistake, and that the two parties—UML and Maoist Center—should unite again. However, a lack of trust between Oli and Dahal led to the breakup in their alliance this week. The partnership between the two communist parties lasted just four months. This distrust between Oli and Dahal dates back to 2021 when the then NCP dissolved, resulting in the revival of the Maoist party and a split in the UML, with Madhav Kumar Nepal forming a separate party, CPN (Unified Socialist), which continues to collaborate with Dahal. 

On Sunday, with support from the NC, UML leader Oli became the prime minister. This development has significantly reduced, if not entirely closed, the prospects of left unity in the near future. The NC and UML justify their alliance by citing the need to ensure political stability and address the country’s economic issues. This rationale mirrors the left unity in 2018, which had promised political stability and economic development, resonating well with the people and securing nearly two-thirds of the votes for the left parties. The new coalition faces numerous challenges. Firstly, it must maintain internal cohesion to effectively address the country's current problems. Secondly, it needs to revitalize the economy. Additionally, it must tackle issues of good governance and corruption. The coalition has also pledged to amend the constitution but has not provided details on how this complex task will be achieved.

A major challenge for the coalition will come from within their respective parties. Historically, a lack of communication and coordination between the government and the parties has led to government collapses. Therefore, the leadership of both NC and UML must not overlook party dynamics if they wish to maintain the coalition. Oli and Deuba must be particularly careful in managing internal government differences. There have been many past instances of disagreements between the prime minister and ministers from the coalition parties in the past. Policy and appointment disagreements have also strained relations between coalition partners. The new coalition will face similar challenges, and the key question is how Oli and Deuba will manage these differences.

Another challenge arises from internal party dissatisfaction. Leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Kumar Thapa within the NC are unhappy with the selection of ministers, a common issue since the 1950s. Oli and Deuba must address these internal concerns seriously, as suppressing dissatisfaction will hinder government effectiveness.  The coalition must also address the country’s economic issues. Immediate measures are needed to coordinate efforts between the Ministry of Finance and Nepal Rastra Bank. International financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank are willing to assist, and the government should seize this opportunity.

To prevent the youth exodus abroad, the government must create job opportunities. On the international front, there are challenges in creating a favorable environment for Nepal’s economic development. The recent Investment Summit showed international interest in investing in Nepal, and the new government should build on this momentum. This involves winning the trust of key development partners, including India, China, and the US. However, even before Oli's oath ceremony, some Indian media portrayed him as a 'pro-Chinese' leader, highlighting the complexities in foreign policy among coalition partners.

While there are no fundamental differences between the NC and UML in dealing with major powers, there are visible differences in their priorities and approaches. For example, the NC is hesitant about moving forward with China’s BRI, while UML leaders advocate progress. Although Dahal, Oli, and Deuba all oppose high-interest loans from China, UML leaders have criticized the lack of progress. Similar differences exist in dealing with other countries like the US, the UK, and development partners such as Korea and Australia. Effective foreign policy will require coalition partners to consult with each other.

Frequent changes in the coalition have led to public skepticism about the government’s stability. The coalition must convey a message of stability; otherwise, it will be ineffective. Investors are wary due to frequent coalition changes over the past year and a half. If the UML-NC coalition fails to deliver, there will be no remaining alternatives, as all government formation options have already been tried.

Oli: A sharp-witted and shrewd politician 

KP Sharma Oli, elected as Nepal’s prime minister for the third time, was born on 23 Feb 1952, in Terhathum district of eastern Nepal, as the eldest son of Mohan Prasad and Madhumaya Oli. In 1963, his family moved to Jhapa district, where Oli began his political career. He became a full-time political activist and joined the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) in 1970. That same year, he was arrested under the Public Offense Act for his involvement in the cause of democracy and the establishment of a republican state.

On 22 May 1970, Oli went into hiding to lead the movement as a full-time leader. In 1972, he was nominated as the chief of the Jhapa Movement Organizing Committee. In 1973, he was arrested on various false charges, including subversive acts, and was imprisoned for 14 years, including four years of solitary confinement. During his imprisonment, the Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist) or CPN (ML) was formed on 26 Dec 1976, and Oli was regarded as a founding leader.

Released from jail in 1987, Oli was assigned responsibilities as a Central Committee member of the CPN (ML) and served as the in-charge of the Lumbini Zone until 1990. In 1990, he became the founding chair of the Democratic National Youth Federation, Nepal (DNYF), a youth wing of the party. The Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) or CPN (UML) was founded on 6 Jan 1991, by merging two large communist groups, with Oli as a founding central leader.

In 1991, Oli was elected as a member of the House of Representatives from Jhapa-6 and was re-elected from Jhapa-2 in 1994. He served as the Minister for Home Affairs from 1994 to 1995 in the first popularly elected communist government under Prime Minister Man Mohan Adhikari. He held various party positions, including chief of the Central Department of International Affairs and chief of the Central Department of Publicity. From 1999 to 2002, he was the deputy leader of the main opposition party in Parliament.

Oli was appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs in the interim government led by Nepali Congress’s Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala from April 2006 to March 2007. Although he lost the election for the Constituent Assembly in 2008, he continued to hold key party positions, including chief of the Central Department of Party School and chief of the Central Department of International Affairs.

In Nov 2013, Oli was elected as a member of the Constituent Assembly from Jhapa-7 and was elected leader of the parliamentary party in 2014. He became the chairman of the UML in July 2014. Oli first served as prime minister from 11 Oct 2015, to 24 July 2016, and again from 15 Feb 2018 to 13 July  2021.

Oli is known for his sharp wits and being a shrewd politician who is never the one to shy away from controversy. He is fond of reading the works of philosophy, political economy, literature, arts and culture. He has also been active in social works and loves to play various sports including table-tennis. 

The Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML have signed an agreement to amend the constitution adopted in 2015, aiming to address the nation's current crises. Achieving these ambitious goals requires substantial unity, maturity, and understanding between the parties. Leaders from both NC and UML assert that the parties have committed to cooperation at least until the next elections in 2027.

However, the critical question remains: Can these two parties maintain harmony in government? This concern arises from their historical track record. For example, in 2018, the UML and Maoist Center merged to form a new party and government, promising political stability and development. Yet, internal conflicts among top leaders—KP Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal—led to the collapse of both the government and the party, plunging the country into renewed instability.  Similarly, NC and UML failed to collaborate effectively after the 2015 constitution amendment.

The current agreement is the result of at least three months of back-channel negotiations between UML Chairperson Oli and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, along with key facilitators. The agreement was kept secret until Monday. Oli and Deuba initially favored an additional month for thorough preparations, but a leak of the agreement necessitated prompt decisions, hence their cautious approach to forming the government.

The primary task of the new coalition government will be the critical and complex constitution amendment. This requires consensus among the major parties that supported the 2015 constitution drafting process. Consequently, NC and UML are focusing on forming a national unity government. A leader involved in the negotiations stated: “The two parties plan to amend several provisions in phases, starting with changes to the electoral system, followed by other issues.”

The NC-UML alliance also aims to counter challenges from emerging parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and independent candidates such as Kathmandu's Mayor Balendra Shah. Although NC and UML are principal competitors, they view these new parties as a common threat to their voter bases. 

To address these challenges, the new NC-UML coalition must tackle corruption, ensure good governance, create jobs, and initiate plans for economic recovery. Failure to address these issues will likely provoke a backlash against the coalition government. Following the agreement, both parties have expedited the process of forming a new government, with formal endorsements from their respective parties, and are now waiting for Prime Minister Dahal’s resignation. 

In the absence of a single-party majority, the government formation process will proceed under Article 76(2) of the constitution, which allows for a coalition government. NC and UML have urged Dahal to resign to facilitate the formation of a national unity government. Although they have signed a document focusing on government formation and constitutional amendments, it has not yet been made public. On Wednesday, NC endorsed the agreements, although party leaders have not yet reviewed the document.

NC has also urged Prime Minister Dahal to resign promptly. The party argues that since more than two-thirds of Parliament members oppose him, Dahal should step down on moral and political grounds. However, Dahal cites the constitutional provision granting him 30 days to seek a vote of confidence after a coalition member withdraws support. According to the agreement between NC and UML, Oli will be appointed as prime minister under Article 76(2) of the constitution. Given the agreement to form a national unity government, NC insists it is imperative for Dahal to step aside.

To achieve their objectives, NC and UML must garner broader support from other parties. By Wednesday, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and the Mahantha Thakur-led Loktantrik Samajbadi Party had pledged their support for the NC-UML coalition. The coalition's base is expected to expand with additional parties joining the alliance.

Key contents of the agreement between NC and UML

• Promoting national interest
• Taming corruption to maintain good governance
• Maintaining political stability
• Amendment the constitution after a thorough review
• Strengthening economy
• Rotational leadership between Oli and Deuba 

UML withdraws support to government

CPN-UML has officially withdrawn its support to the government, effectively rendering the Dahal-led government into a minority. UML leader Mahesh Bartaula said: “We gave Prime Minister Dahal the opportunity to pave the way for the formation of a national government, but he didn’t do so. Hence we have decided to withdraw the support.” With the UML, the major coalition partner in the Dahal government, pulling out its support, Prime Minister Dahal now has two options: Resign on moral grounds or to take a vote of confidence. Dahal has maintained that he will go for a floor test in Parliament.

The CPN-UML has said that Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Rabi Lamichhane should resign if a complaint with evidence is filed against him.

Making public the decisions of the Secretariat meeting held on Sunday morning, Deputy General Secretary Pradeep Gyawali said that Home Minister Lamichhane tender his resignation if a complaint with evidence is filed against him.

He claimed that no complaint has been filed against Lamichhane at any regulatory body.

Leader Gyawali further claimed that the Nepali Congress has been obstructing the House proceedings to take political revenge.

Saying that the UML's current focus is on good governance, development, prosperity and winning people's trust, he said that the party will not pay attention to any post.

Meanwhile, condemning the terrorist attack in Moscow, Russia, Gyawali said that the UML will always stand against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.

The CPN-UML Parliamentary Party has issued a whip to the UML lawmakers to mandatorily attend the Parliament's meetings and to play an effective role in the winter session of the federal Parliament. The winter session is commencing from 4 pm today.

Party whip Mahesh Bartaula said that this directive has been issued in line with the decision that the party's meeting made on Sunday. He said that the UML will shoulder the role of the main opposition party in a stronger and effective manner in the meetings of the current session compared to the past.

The meeting of the Parliamentary Party has also instructed its lawmakers to play an effective role in the context of making the laws required for constitution implementation, social justice, good governance, prosperity and national interest.

Similarly, the meeting has urged the government to stop the youth brain drain to foreign countries and to promptly bring back home the Nepali youths who are in difficulty, paying attention to the deteriorating peace and security situation in West Asia.

The CPN-UML today made public the achievements of its 18-day long roadshow (Sankalpa Yatra) along the Mid-hill districts.

The Yatra started from Jhulaghat of Baitadi district on November 30 and concluded upon reaching Chiwa Bhanjyang of Panchthar on December 17.

During a press conference organized at the party central office, Chyasal and in the presence of UML Chair KP Sharma Oli today, the party said that the 'Sankalpa Yatra’ has achieved important milestone in linking development, prosperity and nationality, besides bringing enthusiasm in the party and amongst the party workers and the local people. 

Describing the Yatra as unprecedented and unforgettable, Chair Oli urged the government to give priority to the development and prosperity of the Mid-hilly region. Public assemblies and meetings, and discussions with college and school students were held in course of the campaign with the spirit and message of 'Relation Local, Message National'.

Similarly, the UML stated that interaction with the local farmers, dialogue with agriculture scientists, observation of developmental works and meeting with entrepreneurs carrying out model works, observation of historical, religious and cultural places, and collection of people's experiences, grievances and feedback were other highlights of the campaign.

UML General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel said the campaign helped the party in identifying the growing out migration from the hills and seeking solution to it, in promoting social harmony and national unity, and in understanding the economic, social, cultural and religious condition as well as the industrial and tourism potentials of the mid-hilly region.

The party top leadership, central office-bearers, the standing committee, politburo and central members and technical teams participated in the ‘Sankalpa Yatra’.

The CPN-UML has decided to fly the party flag at half-mast for three days to mourn the death of Constituent Assembly Chairman and party Vice-Chairman Subash Nembang.

An emergency Secretariat meeting held at the party headquarters in Chyasal, Lalitpur decided to place condolence books at the party central office, province office and his election constituency Ilam.

The meeting also endorsed a special condolence motion.

Nembang succumbed to a heart attack at 1:40 am today while receiving treatment at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital in Maharajgunj. He was 71.

His body has been kept at the party headquarters in Chyasal for final tributes.

The government has decided to cremate Nembang with state honors.

An emergency Cabinet meeting held this morning has decided to give a public holiday on the day of his cremation.

Nembang’s last rites will be performed after his sons come to Nepal.

CPN-UML Chair KP Sharma Oli has advised Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal to step down given his ‘poor showing’. 

Organizing a press conference on Sunday, Oli and other leaders criticized the government over ‘ineffective handling’ of important matters such as the Lalita Niwas land-grab, the 100-kg gold smuggling case and obstructions in the Parliament.

Chair Oli expressed surprise that the Home Minister and the Finance Minister had not quit thus far despite their incompetencies. The party leading the government has prevented the (main) opposition from airing their views during parliamentary sessions, he said, “Whenever the opposition attempts to address the assembly, members of the ruling party promptly rise and vociferously intervene, causing disruptions. They thus thwart our efforts to facilitate a smooth functioning of the Parliament, leaving us with no option but to obstruct the House.”

The government’s shortcomings extend beyond the legislative arena, Oli maintained, “Even in terms of public service delivery, the government has faltered in producing tangible outcomes.”

“Shouldn’t we be attentive to people’s problems? Amid floods and landslides, the government’s response seems lackluster. Farmers are standing in queues to acquire a mere five kilograms of fertilizer, burdened by exorbitant costs,” he said.

Chair Oli also accused the government of being afraid to form a high-level committee for investigating the 100-kg gold case, insisting that the probe committee will be instrumental in finding whether the government is complicit in the case. 

Rajendra Gautam, head of the UML’s Publicity Department, sought the arrest of former prime ministers Madhav Kumar Nepal and Baburam Bhattarai in connection with the Lalita Niwas land-grab, citing the recent Supreme Court order directing top decision-makers to bring them under investigation. “Despite the court’s directive, police have not even questioned them (the two ex-PMs) regarding their involvement in the Lalita Niwas scandal, where they are alleged to have played a significant role through multiple cabinet decisions.”

Gautam expressed doubts about the Home Ministry’s departments conducting impartial investigations, reiterating that the UML believes an independent high-level investigation committee should be established to examine the gold case. “During investigations, the government has treated the ruling parties and the opposition differently,” he said, noting that individuals close to the ruling parties have not been thoroughly investigated.

At the program, the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government came under the main opposition’s fire for displaying arrogance through ‘vengeful moves against the opposition, dissemination of false information and attempts to conceal wrongdoings’.

The party contended that the present government is manipulating tax rates to favor specific business interests, allowing certain entrepreneurs to exploit state resources through extensive contracts.

But political analyst Krishna Pokharel says that the press briefing appeared to predominantly reflect UML Chair Oli’s sense of frustration. “It appears that this frustration stems from his party’s extended period of being out of power,” he says the conference mainly consisted of negative remarks rather than substantive discussions.

The National Youth Federation Nepal, youth wing of the main opposition CPN-UML, took out a torch rally in the Capital on Friday demanding stern action against those involved in the gold smuggling.

During the torch rally organized in New Baneshwor, the youth leaders demanded resignation of Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha.

Saying that the gold is being smuggled from the Tribhuvan International Airport (TIA), they chanted slogans against Home Minister Shrestha demanding his resignation on moral grounds.