Diplomatic License: The pursuit of strategic autonomy

When the Constituent Assembly members found themselves stuck during the writing of a new constitution, they often looked to the charter of the southern neighbor, the world’s largest democracy, for inspiration. It made sense too. Gandhian nonviolence and Indian struggles against the British had inspired Nepal’s own movement for democracy. Had India not become independent in 1947, Nepal would probably have had to wait for democracy for several more years, if not decades. As it was, even the 1951 agreement on democratic rule in Nepal was signed in New Delhi. It is thus no surprise that we, like India, have ended up with a federal parliamentary democratic system.

Post-1950, there has been a lot of convergence in the two neighbors’ foreign policy as well. As underdeveloped thirdworld countries that could not afford to pick sides in the Cold War, both Nepal and India became founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Both still have Panchsheel as a bedrock of their foreign policy. When India started opening up its economy in the early 1990s, Nepal did too. Of course, the interests of a civilizational state like India cannot in substance be compared with those of a far smaller power like Nepal. There are bound to be fundamental differences. Yet even accounting for this, there are some remarkable similarities.

Take, for instance, the new quest of both the countries for ‘strategic autonomy.’ In recent times this concept has been most commonly used in the context of the European Union; how the 27-country bloc needs to pursue its own interests as the US retreats from its role as a guarantor of peace in Europe. As Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, a German think tank, defines it: “…strategic autonomy is… the ability to set priorities and make decisions in matters of foreign policy and security, together with the institutional, political and material wherewithal to carry these through—in cooperation with third parties, or if need be alone.”

Pushed and pulled in its relations with the US, China and Russia, each an essential partner of India, Narendra Modi has strictly adhered to the letter and spirit of this definition. Nepal just entered a ‘strategic partnership’ of its own with China, and the prime minister says he will pursue similar partnership with India. The US believes it is already a strategic partner of Nepal, which the communist government in Kathmandu is quick to deny. But even with the US, Nepal’s desire to pursue a foreign policy independent of India is clearly visible. For this, the Oli government will tilt a touch more toward China, but will also be ready to engage more with the western powers whose presence on Nepali soil India has traditionally loathed.

Whatever spin the Oli government gives to its foreign policy conduct, its desire, first and foremost, seems to be to yank Nepal out of India’s old, self-defined security umbrella. As a vote-bank strategy, too, it’s a no-brainer; hence the close defense and security cooperation with China and the US, the “third parties” in this game. But if India remains keen about maintaining its upper hand in its traditional backyard, Nepal’s interests will be easily tradable for bigger geopolitical or economic gains. Even Panchsheel, lest we forget, is an Indo-China construct.

The periodic plan of Prov­ince 1 aims to raise its per capita income to $1,620 within the next five years. According to the first periodic plan that the Pro­vincial Planning Commis­sion has made public, the targeted per capita income equals Rs 184,680. The prov­ince’s per capita income now is $1,062. Vice president of the Pro­vincial Planning Commission, Subodh Raj Pyakurel, says that the province also aims to raise its Human Development Index from 0.523 to 0.600 in the next five fiscals. “We have introduced the periodic plan with the main slogan ‘clean, happy and prosperous prov­ince’. All our targets are real­istic,” he adds.

The Gross Domestic Prod­uct (GDP) of the province is Rs 550.29 billion at present. Pyakurel says that the target is to increase it to Rs 803.05 bil­lion in the next five years. To this end, the province aims to increase the current economic growth rate of 8.7 percent to 10.4 percent. Currently, the contribution of the manufac­turing sector to province’s GDP is 20 percent, which the periodic plan aims to increase to 24 percent. As many as 200,000 jobs are expected to be created in the process.

Purna Loksom, a member of the Provincial Planning Commission, says other tar­gets for the next five years are to increase the literacy rate from 84 percent to 99 percent and the average life expectancy from 70 years to 73 years.

The provincial periodic plan is formulated on the basis of national plans, policies and programs; Province 1 has focused on reducing income inequality and boosting the literacy rate and economic growth.

Loksom adds that the main objective of the plan is to lay the foundation of advanced human resource develop­ment and an equitable soci­ety by improving the qual­ity of education, health and social security, and to pro­mote good governance of for­ests, environment, reservoirs and biodiversity by adapting to climatic shifts. He further says that despite the delay in passing the plan and mak­ing it public, its policies and programs have already been incorporated into the current fiscal’s budget.

Targets under the infrastructure sector include blacktopping 5,000 km of roads and ensuring everyone in the province has access to electricity. Currently, only 1,544 km of roads in Province 1 are blacktopped.

The province produces 121 megawatts of electricity, whereas demand stands at 240 megawatts. The Planning Commission says the prov­ince aims to generate 1,500 megawatts of electricity in the next five years and sell it elsewhere.

Chief Minister of Province 1, Sher Dhan Rai, says that only Gandaki Province has so far passed a periodic plan and Province 3 has only prepared a baseline report. He claims that although there has been some delay, Province 1 will be number one in terms of exe­cuting the plan. “The provin­cial government will work on the plan’s framework. And it will make sure it is effectively implemented and its targets attained,” says Rai

DIPLOMATIC LICENSE
Xi humbled but disappointed

Xi Jinping was reportedly humbled by the warm hospi­tality of his hosts. But he was also disappointed. The 14-point joint statement and the 20-point ‘List of agree­ments’ read more like a litany of missed opportunities than an expression of abiding faith between two close friends. Xi came with an open heart, even promising a ‘big surprise’ for Nepal. The surprise never materialized when Xi saw that there was zero preparation on Nepal’s part to finalize BRI projects, even after the announcement of his visit; it was as if the country had completely disregarded his central foreign policy agenda. The US and India will look upon with great satisfaction that what was being billed as a watershed moment in Nepal-China bilateral ties turned out to be a dud. Instead of the announce­ment of a new 1,000 MW project (the surprise?), there was a reiteration of two previously signed hydro deals. The much-vaunted cross-border railway is no closer to being realized. Nor is there anything substantial in the agreements about removing the scores of non-tariff barriers Nepali goods enter­ing China face. The only widely acknowledged achievement of the visit was the 50-km Kathmandu-Keyrung tunnel road.

The signing of an extradition treaty could have put a big spoke in the diplomatic wheel of the US, which has been strongly lobbying for the rights of Tibetan refugees in Nepal. It did not materialize, thanks to the last-minute exertions of the American ambassador Randy Berry. Yet the mutual legal assistance treaty that we now have could still be enough to spy on and extradite Tibetans from Nepal to China.

The rivalry between the IPS and the BRI is the new game in town. Many thought Xi’s reference to “crushed bodies and shattered bones” referred to Hong Kong and what China sees as the American meddling there. Instead, what he was hint­ing at was the recent American lobbying on behalf of Tibetan refugees in Nepal that jinxed a ‘full blown’ extradition treaty.

Xi’s visit was all about minimizing the US presence in Nepal. Given Nepal’s lukewarm response to the BRI, there was no other conceivable reason for him to come here right now. Symbolically, being able to host one of the most powerful persons on the planet was a huge achieve­ment for Nepal, no doubt. Sadly, there was no happy post-Mamallapuram surprise.

Indian analysts seem confident that Nepal can’t easily overcome the constraints of geography. Yet working out a viable role for India in the IPS, and its application in South Asia, is proving to be rather tricky. Indians have traditionally been loath to let westerners have a say in Nepal; yet they also realize that it will be hard to deal with an increasingly self-as­sured China without US help. In any case, we could see a more assertive Indian ambassador taking over the ever-jovial Manjeev Singh Puri who was sent to Nepal to smooth ruffled feathers post-blockade.

As the US-China rivalry in Nepal heats up, let me also haz­ard a guess at another likely development soon: the visit of American Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (provided he is not roasted in the Trump impeachment inquiry).

In recent months, top leaders of the ruling parties, including Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, have been speaking about the possible danger to the current political dispensation. Although they assert no one can go back on republicanism, they also claim that some forces are trying to sabotage the current federal democratic republican system. There are also many who argue that ruling party leaders are making such statements to cover their failure to deliver, which has led to growing public frustration.

For the first time after becoming prime minister in February last year, Prime Minister Oli on August 20 summoned an all-party meeting and requested political parties ‘to defend and strengthen’ the federal democratic republican system. In the meeting, Oli claimed that some forces are trying to jeopardize the constitution—clearly hinting at the growing activities of former King Gyanendra Shah.

According to multiple sources, Shah has increased his activities in what could be a last-ditch effort to revive the monarchy. The government has received information that Shah has intensified his lobbying—both domestic and foreign—in order to launch a movement against the current political system. If his activities will lead to something tangible remains to be seen, but they have certainly given rise to many speculations.

Although the monarchy’s revival seems unlikely in the near future, as major parties strongly profess their commitment to the constitution, they also fear that Shah and his acolytes could exploit people’s frustration. 

Ruling party leaders concede that the government’s failure to deliver has led to a rise in public discontent and that regressive forces think of it as an opportune moment to rally people against the current order. They are of the view that although Shah has been trying to roll the clock back for long, the current situation is different as he has intensified his efforts in recent months.

Many campaigns

Besides Shah’s domestic and international lobbying to restore the monarchy and Nepal’s status as a Hindu state, a number of other campaigns that go against constitutional provisions are underway, although it is not clear if or how they are connected to Shah.

There is a vocal and sizeable section in the Nepali Congress (NC), the main opposition, in favor of a Hindu state. In a NC Mahasamiti meeting held a few months ago, around 700 out of 1,500 members had expressed their support for a Hindu state. NC General Secretary Shashank Koirala, Shekhar Koirala and even Ram Chandra Poudel, arguably the most powerful Congress leader after party president Sher Bahadur Deuba, are positive on their demand. It should be noted that this section of the Congress champions the restoration of only the Hindu state, not the monarchy— although the historical connection between the two is strong. NC leaders say that the Hindu state is going to be a prominent issue at the party’s upcoming general convention. Then there is the Rastriya Prajantra Party (RPP) led by Kamal Thapa, whose official position is the revival of the Hindu state and monarchy. Thapa frequently meets Shah, but his party believes that the former king should not be associated with, and dragged into the activities of, any single political outfit. Says Mohan Shrestha, RPP Spokesperson, “People are gradually considering an alternative to the republican system. And neighboring countries might also have thought there is a need for one credible and long-term Nepali institution they can rely on to protect their interests in Nepal.”

But even Shrestha reckons that reviving the monarchy or the Hindu state would be difficult without the support of big parties. Along with Shah’s increased activities, the RPP has also intensified its campaign to garner people’s support for restoring the monarchy. A referendum to decide the fate of the monarchy has long been among its chief demands. Finally, there are a number of less-organized groups that are launching separate campaigns for the revival of the Hindu state and/or the monarchy.

According to sources, former King Gyanendra Shah complains with national and international politicians about the failure of the Nepali political parties to honor the informal agreements reached right before he relinquished absolute powers following the second ‘people’s movement’ of 2006. From 2009 to 2015, in his democracy day message, he used to say that in order to ensure the country’s stability and prosperity, all agreements reached between him and the political parties should be implemented. Shah, however, has not clearly said what those agreements were. Those close to the former king claim that major parties had pledged to keep some form of monarchy alive, but they did not abide by it. Leaders of the major parties deny there was such an agreement.

Tainted figures

Those who demand only the revival of the Hindu state (and not the monarchy) believe that due to the tainted image of King Gyanendra and his son Paras Shah, common people will not accept them as their king. (Many Nepalis suspect the two had a hand in the 2001 royal massacre, and Paras has a long history of waywardness.) “Gyanendra is a major cause of the monarchy’s abolition. Had there been another figure, the institution would probably have survived. Gyanendra and his son Paras are still the main stumbling blocks to the monarchy’s revival,” says a top politician of a pro-monarchy party who has closely worked with the former king. “The then Indian foreign minister Natwar Singh and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had also given their nod to ‘a baby king’, but it did not materialize due to Gyanendra’s opposition,” he adds. Even the elder statesman and leader of the 2006 ‘people’s uprising’ Girija Prasad Koirala had repeatedly floated the proposal of ‘a baby king’.

King Gyanendra is aware of his and Paras’s tarnished image. That is why he has now floated the idea of reviving the concept of ‘a baby king’. According to the people in touch with him, the former king is willing to accept Hridayendra Shah, his grandson, as the new king. He is well aware that people will not accept Paras as their king.

There have been some media reports in the past couple of months that ruling and opposition party leaders are meeting Gyanendra, although such meetings have not been independently verified. There were reports that Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Ishwar Pokhrel, and another Nepal Communist Party (NCP) leader Bam Dev Gautam met Gyanendra. NC General Secretary Shashank Koirala was also reported to have met the former king.

In April this year, Gyanendra went to Dhanusha, Sarlahi, Saptari, Udayapur, Panchthar and Ilam districts and visited several temples there. During the visits, he also met local politicians and civil society leaders. On his 73th birthday on July 1 this year, the former king published a book of articles and interviews, which was noted for its exorbitant price. The book has one article by Gyanendra himself, in which he has defended his direct rule. He has also stated that the country is in a state of flux without explaining the term.

External lobbying

Mainly after the promulgation of the new constitution in September 2015, Gyanendra has intensified his domestic and international visits. His stay in Bangkok in August lasted a considerable while. Before heading there, he had held consultations with people from various walks of life.

“In the past three years, former King Gyanendra has had an accelerated series of ‘exploratory’ talks separately and jointly with various levels of political representatives from the two neighbors who have at regular intervals given some frugal briefing to the Americans too,” wrote senior journalist P. Kharel in his Republica column in April. (Kharel often meets Gyanendra.) In January last year, Gyanendra met Yogi Adityanath, Chief Minister of the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, at the latter’s residence in Lucknow. The yogi has openly supported the revival of the Hindu state and monarchy in Nepal. The same year, Gyanendra also visited China, but details of his meetings there are sparse. According to sources, Gyanendra is in regular touch with the embassies of the US, India, China and Japan in Kathmandu.