Rain likely to occur in Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki today
The Meteorological Forecasting Division under the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has predicted that the weather will be partly cloudy in the hilly regions, including Koshi Province and fair in rest of the parts of the country.
It is due to the partial influence of westerly wind and local wind in the country, the Division claimed.
According to the Division, the weather will be partly cloudy in the hilly region and fair in the rest of the country this afternoon. Light rain with lightning is likely to occur at a few places of the hilly region of Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki Provinces and at one or two places of the rest of the hilly regions.
Light snowfall is also likely to occur at some places of the high hilly and mountainous regions. The weather will be partly cloudy in hilly regions, including Koshi Province tonight and fair in the rest of the part.
Light rain accompanied by lightning is predicted to occur at one or two places of the hilly regions of Koshi and Gandaki Provinces. Light snowfall is likely to occur at one or two places of the high hilly and mountainous regions of Koshi and Gandaki provinces.
According to a weather bulletin released by the Division this morning, there is a possibility of light snowfall at a few places of the high hilly and mountainous region of the country.
The weather change is likely to partially affect daily life as well as agriculture, health, tourism, mountaineering, road and air transport in the region, the Division said, calling for adopting necessary alert measures.
Basnet awarded Himdamaru title
Balkrishna Basnet, President of Press Council Nepal, has been honored with Himdamaru title. The award was conferred to Basnet by the Literary Journalist Association on Thursday.
He was honored for his contribution to the environment by studying and researching mountains and environment and informing people about saving the mountains through journalism. The association felicitated him for his studies on protecting the mountains, environment and the effects of climate change and producing a documentary on the impact of climate change on the Himalayan region. He was honored for his 25 years of dedication for protection of the mountains.
Senior literary figure Rochak Ghimire, senior artist Madan Das Shrestha and Mount Everest climber Tembachiri Sherpa honored Basnet with a certificate and a shawl.
Basnet after receiving the award requested that journalism should be focused on the protection of the mountains and the environment to save the earth. He has also suggested that the concerned bodies should be serious about the fact that the snow in the mountains of Nepal is decreasing because of climate change and this is damaging the entire tourism industry.
“If the mountains survive the water and tourism area remains. Foreigners come to see mountains and therefore we need to save the mountains,” Basnet said.
Ghimire praised Basnet for working for prosperity for a long time through the field of journalism.
Sherpa shared his experiences of working together with Basnet for the last 24 years. He recalled the days when Sherpa first climbed Mt Everest at the age of 14, when Basnet along with a management team had gone to the Everest Base Camp.
ADB projects Nepal's economy to grow by 3.6 percent in FY 2024
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that Nepal's economy is to grow by 3.6% (at market prices) in fiscal year 2024.
Releasing the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2024, a flagship publication of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) by organising a press conference here today, it shared that Nepal's economy would go up from an estimated growth of 1.9% in fiscal year 2023.
ADB Country Director for Nepal, Arnaud Cauchois said, "A gradual relaxation of monetary policy coupled with improved consumer and investor confidence is expected to stimulate economic activity in 2024. Moreover, industry is projected to grow more rapidly than in fiscal year 2023 as capital spending by the government ramps up in the second half of the fiscal year, and as additional hydroelectricity power comes online by the end of fiscal year 2024."
Service sector growth would also likely accelerate as credit controls ease, interest rates further decrease, and tourism revenues expand. Agriculture growth may increase marginally from 2.7% in fiscal year 2023 to 2.8% as a record rice harvest is tempered by a shortfall in winter crops and other agricultural production, given the deficient rainfall this winter season, reads the press release issued by ADB.
The report projects annual average inflation to fall to 6.5% in fiscal year 2024 from 7.7% in fiscal year 2023 on subdued oil prices and a decline in inflation in India, Nepal's main import source.
"External risks remain relatively well contained. The current account deficit may fall again into deficit after registering a surplus in the first half of fiscal year 2024", clarified the ADB.
As per the ADO, as the trade deficit contracted by 4.7% year-on-year in the first 6 months of fiscal year 2024, and as workers' remittances expanded by 22.6% year-on-year, the current account recorded a surplus of $1.2 billion.
However, amid higher imports and stable remittance inflows in the remainder of the fiscal year, the 2024 current account deficit is forecast at 0.7% of gross domestic product.
Similarly, ADB Principal Economist for Nepal Jan Hansen shared, "Downside risks to the economic outlook in fiscal year 2024 may arise from a downturn in the global economy affecting Nepal's tourism and remittance receipts."
"Any intensified geopolitical turmoil could disrupt supply chains, pushing up global inflation and tightening global financial conditions. This may lead to a tightening of domestic monetary policy, undermining investment and consumption, and dragging down growth", reads the press release.
He expressed commitment to provide possible support in favour of prosperous and inclusive Nepal.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members-49 from the region.
WTO forecasts rebound in global trade but warns of downside risks
Global goods trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation, WTO economists said in a new forecast on April 10. The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025 after falling 1.2 percent in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.
In the latest ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’ report, WTO economists note that inflationary pressures are expected to abate this year, allowing real incomes to grow again—particularly in advanced economies—thus providing a boost to the consumption of manufactured goods. A recovery of demand for tradable goods in 2024 is already evident, with indices of new export orders pointing to improving conditions for trade at the start of the year.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: “We are making progress towards global trade recovery, thanks to resilient supply chains and a solid multilateral trading framework—which are vital for improving livelihoods and welfare. It’s imperative that we mitigate risks like geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation to maintain economic growth and stability.”
High energy prices and inflation continued to weigh heavily on demand for manufactured goods, resulting in a 1.2 percent decline in world merchandise trade volume for 2023. The decline was larger in value terms, with merchandise exports down five percent to $24.01trn. Trade developments on the services side were more upbeat, with commercial services exports up nine percent to $7.54trn, partly offsetting the decline in goods trade.
Import volumes were down in most regions but especially in Europe, where they fell sharply. The main exceptions were large fuel-exporting economies, whose imports were sustained by strong export revenues as energy prices remained high by historical standards. World trade remained well above its pre-pandemic level throughout 2023. By the fourth quarter it was nearly unchanged compared to the same period in 2022 (+0.1 percent) and had only risen slightly compared to the same period in 2021 (+0.5 percent).
The report further estimates global GDP growth at market exchange rates will remain mostly stable over the next two years at 2.6 percent in 2024 and 2.7 percent in 2025, after slowing to 2.7 percent in 2023 from 3.1 percent in 2022. The contrast between the steady growth of real GDP and the slowdown in real merchandise trade volume is linked to inflationary pressures, which had a downward effect on consumption of trade-intensive goods, particularly in Europe and North America.
Downside risks
Moving forward, the report warns that geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty could limit the extent of the trade rebound. Food and energy prices could again be subject to price spikes linked to geopolitical events. The report’s special analytical section on the Red Sea crisis notes that while the economic impact of the Suez Canal disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict has so far been relatively limited, some sectors, such as automotive products, fertilizers and retail, have already been affected by delays and freight costs hikes.
The report furthermore presents new data indicating that geopolitical tensions have affected trade patterns marginally but have not triggered a sustained trend toward de-globalization. Bilateral trade between the United States and China, which reached a record high in 2022, grew 30 percent less in 2023 than did their trade with the rest of the world. Moreover, for the whole of 2023, global trade in non-fuel intermediate goods—which provides a useful gauge of the status of global value chains—was down six percent.
Signs of fragmentation may also be emerging in services trade: US imports of information, computer, and telecommunications (ICT) services from North American trading partners (mostly Canada) increased from 15.7 percent of total ICT imports in 2018 to 23.0 percent in 2023 while US imports of the same from Asian trading partners (mostly India) fell from 45.1 percent to 32.6 percent. Fragmentation of data flow policies along geopolitical lines, moreover, could cause global trade of goods and services in real terms to fall by 1.8 percent and global GDP to decline by one percent according to estimates from a forthcoming study by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the WTO.
WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa said: “Some governments have become more skeptical about the benefits of trade and have taken steps aimed at re-shoring production and shifting trade towards friendly nations. The resilience of trade is also being tested by disruptions on two of the world's main shipping routes: the Panama Canal, which is affected by freshwater shortages, and the diversion of traffic away from the Red Sea. Under these conditions of sustained disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty, risks to the trade outlook are tilted to the downside.”
Regional trade outlook
If current projections hold, Africa’s exports will grow faster than those of any other region in 2024, up 5.3 percent; this however is from a low base, since the continent's exports remained depressed after the Covid-19 pandemic. The CIS the region’s expected growth is just slightly below 5.3 percent, also from a reduced base after the region's exports plunged following the war in Ukraine. North America (3.6 percent), the Middle East (3.5 percent) and Asia (3.4 percent) should all see moderate export growth, while South America is expected to grow more slowly, at 2.6 percent. European exports are once again expected to lag behind those of other regions, with growth of just 1.7 percent.
Strong import volume growth of 5.6 percent in Asia and 4.4 percent in Africa should help prop up global demand for traded goods this year. However, all other regions are expected to see below average import growth, including South America (2.7 percent), the Middle East (1.2 percent), North America (1.0 percent), Europe (0.1 percent) and the CIS region (-3.8 percent).
Merchandise exports of least-developed countries (LDCs) are forecasted to grow 2.7 percent in 2024, down from 4.1 percent in 2023, before growth accelerates to 4.2 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, imports by LDCs should grow 6.0 percent this year and 6.8 percent next year following a 3.5 percentcontraction
Trade in services
World commercial services trade grew nine percent in 2023 despite a decline in freight transport, thanks to recovering international travel and surging digitally delivered services. In 2024, sports events to be held in Europe in the summer, as well as the easing of visa requirements by various countries, are expected to boost tourism and passenger transport.
Global exports of digitally delivered services soared to $4.25trn in 2023, up nine percent year-on-year, and accounted for 13.8 percent of world exports of goods and services. In 2023, the value of these services—traded over borders through computer networks and encompassing everything from professional and management services to streaming of music and videos, online gaming, and remote education—surpassed pre-pandemic levels by over 50 percent. In Europe and Asia, which hold a global market share of 52.4 percent and 23.8 percent respectively, exports rose by 11 percent and 9 percent. Growth accelerated in Africa (13 percent) and in South and Central America and the Caribbean (11 percent), exceeding the global average. The two regions, which formed only 0.9 percent and 1.6 percent of global exports in 2023, are on the path to take advantage of digitally delivered services trade.
The WTO has released a new dataset on trade in services by mode of supply as in the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). It provides valuable insights on how services trade has modified over the years, including the impact of digitalization and of the Covid-19 pandemic.
This dataset as well as the latest estimates on digitally delivered services trade and service trade in general can be visualized and downloaded in the Global Services Trade Data Hub. The newly launched Global Services Trade Data Hub gives access to comprehensive WTO services trade data. It provides visualizations and customizable features catering to the diverse needs of trade negotiators, analysts, researchers, and decision-makers, to derive insights.
