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The prime minister regularly cites unproven Covid-19 cures—salt-water gargle, turmeric consumption, various nasal exercises. This has added to people’s sense of complacency. For the more scientifically minded, such antics reduce their trust in his government. KP Oli’s party, CPN-UML, still holds political gatherings in the presence of many unmasked attendees. No wonder government exhortations to the public to take the contagion seriously and adopt safety measures have fallen on deaf ears. They have simply stopped trusting government officials. 

The opposition parties should have held the government to account on its criminal neglect of public safety. Yet the leaders of Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Center) and Janata Samajbadi Party too have failed to convince their electorates on the virus. Nor have they stopped organizing political gatherings, again in violation of Covid-19 safety norms, even as they harangue the Oli government for its failures on contagion-control.

If our political parties cannot help the country deal with its most pressing problem in generations, it bears asking: what good are they? How can they claim to work in public interest? Moreover, the rulers, across the party lines, are seen as representing the interests of only a small segment of the society. People from other ethnic and class groups thus view those in power with deep suspicion. 

I can't think of a single top political leader today who commands broad public support. The main problem is our senior politicians’ sense of entitlement and their failure to see beyond pure power politics. 

As the country battles a deadly pandemic, their focus continues to be to either hold on to power or, for others, to get there, which unfortunately is the ultimate goal of their politics—no, no higher purpose to serve for this elderly bunch. The generation of leaders currently at the helm cite the sacrifices they have made—most notably, their long years in prison—for the cause of democracy. They act as if the state ought to repay their dues. 

No top Nepali leader is thinking about building a constituency by saving people’s lives from the deadly pandemic. They are either ignoring the pandemic or trying to twist it to their political advantage. PM Oli wanted to use the pandemic to prolong his tenure, Prachanda sought to unseat him citing the government’s failure to tackle Covid-19, and Deuba is now hoping to keep his party presidency by indefinitely putting off vital NC gatherings. Other leaders of big and small parties have acted no better. 

People are irrational. It is the duty of political leaders to make them see reason, even when people don’t want to see sense. Yet Nepali leaders who command attention, including the Kumbh-returnee ex-king, have, in this time of national crisis, been busy pandering to people’s basest instincts to boost their public image. The health and wellbeing of the people they claim to represent are really irrelevant. The Covid-19 pandemic has again exposed the narrow horizons of our political leaders who are working for themselves and no one else.  

The March 7 Supreme Court verdict annulling the Nepal Communist Party merger has allowed the Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSPN), the fourth largest in parliament, to play the kingmaker’s role in government-formation.

“It’s a rare occasion in Nepali political history that the fourth largest party is being seen as the kingmaker, especially when the largest two parties between them have close to two-thirds majority,” says Laxman Lal Karna, a JSPN leader.

Potential kingmaker it may be. But the party is still undecided over whether to side with Prime Minister KP Oli and help him retain his government leadership or to join the anti-Oli alliance to topple the incumbent federal government.

The CPN (Maoist Center), which is desperate to unseat Oli, is waiting for the JSPN as well as the main opposition Nepali Congress (NC) to come up with their formal decisions.

There is a long story behind the formation of the JSPN that is now jointly led by a former prime minister, many former ministers and other towering political figures in Tarai-Madhes.

Fissions and fusions

The JSPN came into being 11 months ago following the merger of Samajbadi Party Nepal (SPN) and Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJPN) in the wake of PM Oli’s attempt to split the Samajbadi Party and reach two-thirds governing majority. After realizing that the prime minister was trying to split the SPN by enticing some of its lawmakers into the government, the SPN decided to merge with the RJPN so that the lawmakers plotting the split would be unable to secure 40 percent parliamentary party seats needed for a formal split.

Political parties led by Upendra Yadav and Mahantha Thakur had won 50 and 20 seats respectively in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections that followed the 2007 Madhes movement. But the two mother parties soon split into many fringe parties, mainly owing to disagreements over joining the government. As a result, their agendas lost their luster and they lost seats in subsequent elections.

Major political parties including Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and Maoist Center pushed through the new constitution in 2015 amid disagreement from Madhes-based political parties. Their grievances over constitution brought them together again as they realized that they wouldn’t be able to do much as separate entities.

The RJPN was subsequently formed after the unification of six parties and the SPN came into being after the merger of two parties. Their alliance again did well in 2017 national elections, especially in Province 2.

Both forces sought votes from the Madhesi, Tharu and other disgruntled communities who wanted the constitution amended to address their concerns. The SPN had even joined the Oli-led government in return of a promise to amend the constitution.

But the Upendra Yadav-led party was forced to quit the government after his differences with Oli started to widen, and when Oli seemed in no mood to amend the national charter. Yadav resigned as deputy prime minister after Oli transferred him from Health to Law ministry, without Yadav’s knowledge.

Differences between Oli and the new outfit of JSPN, the united Madhes-based party, further widened after the prime minister dissolved the parliament in December. The party took to the street against the government move.

After the verdict

After the Supreme Court reinstated the parliament and undid the NCP merger in the first week of March, the two ruling coalition partners, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) turned into arch-rivals. Congress, which was already in opposition, has also since taken the side of the Maoists to oust Oli. The JSPN, meanwhile, is waiting for the Maoists to pull out of the government before it commits to anything.

In this context, both the governing UML and the opposition NC and Maoists, have to rely on the JSPN to form a majority government. The supposed kingmaker party currently has 32 (eligible) seats in the parliament.

Reportedly, even as the JSPN continues to engage with the Maoists, relations between the ruling UML and the JSPN are thawing after the prime minister promised to address at least some of the latter’s demands.

The JSPN has formed an informal team to negotiate with Oli on their demands of registration of a constitution amendment bill in parliament, endorsement of the citizenship bill, release of its jailed leaders and cadres including lawmaker Resham Chudhary, and withdrawal of criminal charges against the same.

“We seek action not commitment this time. The prime minister has sought some time for homework,” says Karna, a member of the JSPN talks-team. According to Karna, to take the talks forward, the party awaits a timeframe from the prime minister.

“Other forces have also committed to addressing our demands but we don’t trust them yet as they are undecided on who should lead the government. Moreover, the chief among those forces, the Maoists, have yet to withdraw their support to the government,” he adds.

JSPN leaders say they are answerable to their voters and supporters who want their leaders released and political cases against their cadres withdrawn. In a recent interaction with civil society groups, Mahant Thakur said cases against Madhesi cadres were not withdrawn due to the state’s discriminatory policies.

Drawing the line

“The JSPN has drawn attention of major forces that always ignored its role in the past,” says Tula Narayan Shah, a close reader of Madhesi politics. “The major parties undermined this force both during constitution making and government formation. Madhes-based parties helped major forces form government without any conditions. This time, the JSPN has clearly outlined its conditions.”

According to Shah, JSPN’s stock in Madhes would rise if it succeeds in getting its demands addressed. “Any force that is critical of Kathmandu gets public support in Madhes. JSPN is demanding release or withdrawal of cases of those jailed or sued for protesting against Kathmandu. If this happens, the party will be welcomed with open arms in Madhes,” Shah says.

Asked whether another faction of the JSPN, led by Baburam Bhattarai and Upendra Yadav would agree to join the Oli-led government, Karna, who belongs to the former RJPN faction, says they won’t have a problems if the government address Madhesi demands.

But JSPN leader Pradip Yadav, who is believed to be close to Upendra Yadav, says that the party will decide only after key demands are addressed.

“Though we have some differences in the party, our common goal remains to press the government to address our concerns,” says Pradip Yadav. “There should be broad discussions inside the party on this.”

Analyst Shah claims that if the JSPN manages to gets its demands addressed, the Yadav-led faction would be positive about rejoining the government. “Those now against the idea of JSPN joining the government were earlier backing KP Oli without any concrete agreement. If the party joins the government after the grievances of Madhes are addressed, Madhes will welcome it,” he adds.

This achievement could also help the JSPN secure more votes in upcoming elections. Its leaders claim the party will sweep Province 2, which has 32 constituencies, and it may also win significant number of seats in Province 1, Lumbini Province and Sudur Paschim Province.

Present and future

The JSPN’s biggest challenge is to remain intact until the next round of elections. UML sources say Oli could try to pull some JSPN leaders into UML fold right before elections. The leaders who were earlier eager about joining Oli government by breaking away from the SPN are still interested in joining the UML, claims the leader who is close to Oli.

Some structural issues could also come in the way of JSPN’s continued unity. Though the SPN and the RJPN were united at the top, the unified JSPN remains a divided house at the grassroots, something that Karna too acknowledges.

Analyst Shah says it is way too early to predict future elections. But he reckons that the JSPN will do well. “CK Raut is a potent force. But I don’t think he will be in a position to challenge the more traditional parties at least until the completion of two more electoral cycles,” he says.

After that, Shah adds, Raut’s political star could rise as the educated youths of today who back him come of age and vote in future elections. “CK Raut has a bright future in Madhesi politics, in my reading,” Shah says.

Back in present, if Oli fails to win a vote of confidence in parliament, the JSPN may even get to lead an election government with the support of NC and Maoists. But right now that remains a matter of speculation. “Prachanda jee has offered prime minister’s position to our leader Mahanth jee. But then it is upon the one making the offer to create right conditions to make that happen,” says JSPN’s Karna.

Immediately after the February 23 Supreme Court verdict reinstating the parliament, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who was proposed as the new prime minister in a no-confidence motion registered against Prime Minister KP Oli, had said he was open to all possibilities on new prime minister.

But a month since the landmark verdict, Dahal has been unable to oust Oli. In fact, he is nowhere close to doing so. Paradoxically, the Oli-led government still enjoys a governing majority with continued support of Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center).

When Dahal shared laddus with another former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal to celebrate the court verdict last month, Prime Minister Oli had mocked their ‘premature celebration’.

Indeed, the country’s political course soon turned upside-down. The same court, on March 7, decided to annul the merger of the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Center) to form the Nepal Communist Party, undoing the two-year-old communist unity.

A desperate Dahal has since failed to stitch up an anti-Oli alliance.

“We are on the street for the ouster of this government that took the unconstitutional step of dissolving the parliament,” says Purna Kumari Subedi, a leader of the Maoist party. “Yet removing Oli has proven difficult as we have had to depend on other political parties who are as yet undecided about what they want.”

According to Maoist leaders, the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal (JSPN) holds the key for the formation of a new government. But the fourth largest party in parliament is as yet undecided on whether to back Oli or to join a broad anti-Oli alliance.

“The situation is not ripe for this government’s removal as those trying to remove Prime Minister Oli simply don’t have the numbers,” says Krishna Bhakta Pokhrel, a leader of the ruling UML’s Oli camp.

Hobson’s choice

Dahal can potentially remove Oli from the prime minister’s chair in one of two ways: either by withdrawing Maoist support for the government or by registering a no-confidence motion.

Both options are difficult for Dahal with other major political actors sitting on the fence. To replace Oli by pulling out, Dahal must be able to garner the support of majority lawmakers against the prime minister.

“But if they fail to garner such a majority, the President will reappoint Oli as prime minister as the leader of the largest party in parliament,” says Pokhrel. “If, on the other hand, the Maoists withdraw their support, the prime minister must call for a vote of confidence. In that case, even if he fails to win the vote he could be reappointed.”

According to the constitution’s Article 76, Clause 3, “if Prime Minister fails to secure a vote of confidence… the President shall appoint as the Prime Minister the leader of the parliamentary party which has the highest number of members in the House of Representatives.”

As the Oli-led UML is the largest political force in the HoR with 121 lawmakers, Oli will be appointed prime minister again within a month's time. Again, if the leader of the largest political party fails to win majority votes, the constitution allows the President to appoint as prime minister any member of the lower house who can show a majority.

But as things are, no one party is in a place to claim such a majority, and if the situation continues there could be no option but to go for early elections—under PM Oli. Elections under Oli is something both the Maoists and the Congress dread.

Oli may bring populist programs to influence voters and he has a strong hold on state mechanisms. Also, according to the constitution the prime minister can recommend dissolution of parliament if no one can win a vote of confidence after the exercise of the constitution’s Clauses 3, 4 and 5 in Article 76.

Lack of confidence

In the second option, Dahal, with the support of Congress and JSPN, can file a no-confidence motion to oust Oli. But if the no-confidence motion fails, Oli's term as prime minister will be extended by at least a year. According to clause 4 of Article 100 of the constitution, the no-confidence motion cannot be filed ‘until another one year after the date of failure of the motion of no-confidence’.

Although the Congress and the Maoists are both desperate to oust Oli, they are afraid of bringing such a motion in the absence of an official JSPN decision to back the move.

“Registering a no-confidence motion will be risky until there is an agreement between the three major political forces outside the government,” says Congress whip Pushpa Bhusal.

According to her, consultations are underway to forge Congress-Maoist-JSPN alliance, but the ball is now firmly in the JSPN’s court.

Says JSPN’s Keshav Jha: “We have five conditions for supporting Oli.” The party has asked for the release of its jailed lawmaker Resham Chaudhary, withdrawal of cases against its cadres implicated in Tikapur killings, and registration of a constitution amendment bill, among its other demands.

But the JSPN leaders are also divided on whether to side with Oli or with the Maoist-NC alliance. A section of it including Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are talking to Oli, much to the consternation of Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai who want Oli out at all costs. 

Sources close to Oli say the prime minister could heed at least some of the JSPN’s concerns—and possibly divide it—in order to block the kingmaker force from joining opposing parties.

On the other hand, Dahal and Deuba are not confident of getting a majority even with the JSPN on board. Of the 53 Maoist lawmakers in the lower house, four have already joined Oli’s UML. With Maoists’ 48 votes, NC’s 61 votes (barring two suspended MPs) and JSPN’s 32 votes (barring two suspended ones) the three-party alliance would have just three more votes than the minimum 138 needed for a majority in the lower house.

“We will have 141 MPs even after the alliance with Samajbadi Party. If just four MPs remain absent on voting day Oli will secure another year in office,” says a Maoist leader.

Early elections, then?

Oli floated the idea of early elections during an all-party meeting at the President’s Office last week. NC President Deuba chose not to speak at the meeting. “Oli wants to vindicate his move of parliament dissolution by holding early elections and Deuba will silently support him by not taking an initiative to form an alternative government,” says an NC leader who is critical of Deuba, requesting anonymity.

Speaking earlier this week in Biratnagar, Deuba said that the NC would neither bring a no-confidence motion nor would it join the government. All the same, Congress leader Pushpa Bhusal says Oli has lost the credibility to hold election after his decision to dissolve the parliament. 

“The present government cannot be trusted to hold timely elections. The Congress is always ready for elections because of its strong agendas but we cannot press for an early vote by going outside constitutional bounds,” she says.

UML’s Pokhrel says Prime Minister Oli is ready for early elections. “Although other parties are reluctant to face the people, Prime Minister Oli is ready. He is as ready for an early election as he is to face a vote of no-confidence,” he says.

… or a consensus government?

The Dahal-led Maoist party is not in a mood for early elections, say party insiders. The party has rather been pressing for a national consensus government, and Dahal had indicated his desire for the same after the restoration of the dissolved parliament in February.

“A consensus government is needed to pull the country out of its current quagmire. We are consulting political parties on the same,” says Subedi, the Maoist leader.

But Oli, who too favors early elections, is also not in a mood to let someone else head an election government.  

According to sources, the NC and the Maoists have proposed Mahantha Thakur of the JSPN as prime minister of an election government, but Thakur is yet to give his consent.

A tripartite NC-Maoist-JSPN government could be unstable though and Congress leaders fear joining such a government could tarnish the party’s image on election eve. Meanwhile, an early election could work to the advantage of Congress at a time the main communist forces are bitterly divided.

Prime Minister KP Oli’s political fortunes were sinking before the Supreme Court came to his rescue by decoupling the CPN-UML from the CPN (Maoist Center), thereby annulling the 2018 merger of the two parties to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP).

Had his rival faction in the party registered a no-confidence motion and had it been endorsed, Oli would have lost his prime minister’s chair. Also, prior to the court verdict, had the Election Commission decided to give official name and recognition to the NCP rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal, he would have had to relinquish party chairmanship. The rival faction was expected to be recognized as the official one, as the majority of party central committee members as well as its lawmakers were on their side.

Before the verdict, Oli was said to be short of garnering the backing of at least 40 percent lawmakers as well as 40 percent party central committee members whose support would have been needed to split the NCP and form a new party. In the worst-case scenario, Oli could have lost his position of lawmaker.  

Many expected the prime minister to lose his PM’s position in the restored parliament. But the apex court verdict has vastly diluted that possibility.  

The verdict forced most of Oli’s former UML colleagues to return to their mother party by ditching Dahal, who is now the head of the restored CPN (Maoist Center). Around 40 NCP lawmakers including former prime ministers Madhav Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal, who had sided with Dahal in the conflict against Oli, decided to return. They had no other alternative. Legal provisions in the Political Parties Act allow a party to expel its breakaway MPs, forcing the return of Nepal, Khanal and other MPs back into the fold of Oli-led UML.

“We have decided to honor the court decision despite our serious disagreements over it. It aimed at dividing the unified party and went beyond the writ petitioner’s demand,” says Narayan Kaji Shrestha, a senior leader of the restored CPN (Maoist Center).

Mr Plan B

Oli’s confidants say he always has a plan B. “Many had thought he would lose the battle if the parliament was reinstated. It is now clear who has lost the battle,” says Bishal Bhattarai, chief whip of the reinstated UML.

After the NCP’s unravelling, the Maoists, Oli’s coalition partners, have been mulling withdrawing their support to the government, in which case the federal government will lose its ruling majority.

“Our party is discussing withdrawal. A final decision will be made after consultations with Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal,” says Maoist leader Girirajmani Pokharel.

But an abrupt Maoist withdrawal seems unlikely because if they withdraw their support for the federal government, the UML could maneuver to remove the two Maoist chief ministers of Karnali and Far-western provinces. 

UML chief whip Bhattarai says it doesn’t matter whether the Maoists stay or go. Either way, Oli will retain the premiership.

Oli-led UML has 120 seats in the House of Representatives (HoR) and needs only 18 more MPs to form a majority government. The prime minister has already put together a negotiation team to talk with the JSPN in order to lure them into the government. With the Madhesi party’s help, Oli can cobble together a majority even without the Congress and the Maoists.

That said, JSPN federal council chairperson Baburam Bhattarai as well as its chairperson Upendra Yadav are against joining Oli’s cabinet. On the other hand, Mahantha Thakur and Rajendra Mahato are interested, if the prime minister agrees to release jailed lawmaker Resham Chaudhary by withdrawing charges against him. “We are still in discussions. I cannot say what will happen right now,” says Laxman Lal Karna, a member of the JSPN’s negotiation team.

Sources say the JSPN could split over the issue. “At least 18-20 of the 34 MPs [including two suspended ones] from the party may break away to join the government,” says a UML leader who is involved in negotiations.

Maoist chairperson Dahal has also expedited negotiations to form a government of his own. He can remove Oli with the backing of Congress plus JSPN. (The Maoists have 53 lawmakers, Nepali Congress has 63 and JSPN has 34.)

The Congress is yet to commit to Dahal even though the two parties see eye to eye on the need to remove Oli. To reassure them, Congress leaders have asked Dahal to register a no-confidence motion against Oli.

Anticipated outcome

Oli appeared confident of holding on to his twin posts even after the parliament reinstatement. He had been saying that the celebrations of Dahal and Nepal was premature and they would ultimately be empty-handed. Defying expectations, he didn’t bring an ordinance to split the NCP in a bid to retain his MP’s position, which he could have lost if the official NCP recognition went to the Dahal-Nepal faction.

Sources close to Oli say he had anticipated the court verdict on NCP’s dissolution. “Even if the court didn’t do the job, the Election Commission would have completed the formalities a few weeks later,” says the aforementioned UML leader who chose to remain anonymous.

UML leaders claim the majority of local government heads are Oli loyalists. “Our team has the support of the majority of the 753 leaders of local governments, even when we don’t count those loyal to Nepal and Dahal,” says Bhattarai, the UML chief whip.  

Of the erstwhile NCP’s 388 local unit chiefs, 190 are loyal to Oli while 20 others aren’t with any faction, say party leaders.

Local representatives help their mother party build grassroots support and garner votes in parliamentary elections. This is why Oli is confident of a good UML showing in the next round of elections.

But Oli doesn’t have the support of the party’s second-rung leaders: the likes of Madhav Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal, Bamdev Gautam, Bhim Rawal, Asta Laxmi Shakya and Surendra Pandey who have been opposing his handling of the party and the government.

“The dissident faction will try to thwart him every step of the way,” says the UML leader close to Oli. “But what you have to remember is that he won back his old party name and election symbol, which is a huge victory in itself.” Both the NCP factions had eyed the enduringly popular UML electoral symbol of a blazing sun.

UML leaders including Ishwar Pokharel, Yubaraj Gyawali, Gokul Baskota, Mahesh Basnet and Ghanashyam Khatiwada had celebrated on their social media posts the court verdict that came in favor of Team Oli. Basnet and Khatiwada had said they were proud to be recognized as UML legislators within an hour of the decision.

Oli also has a stronghold on state mechanisms including constitutional bodies. Right now, his biggest challenge will be to manage the old leaders who have returned to the UML fold.