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Bamdev Gautam is an ambitious leader long known for his shoot-from-the-hip nature. Arguably, in the 56 years he has been in active politics, Gautam has experienced more upheavals than any of his other ex-CPN-UML contemporaries.

Gautam always finds a way to be at the center of national politics. This time, he is in the headlines for his naked display of ambition to become the prime minister via the route of the National Assembly, the federal upper house. Earlier, the 76-year-old leader had been chosen as the head of the ruling Nepal Communist Party’s powerful organization department by the party’s central committee. The same meeting had elevated him to the post of the party vice-chairman.
But then Gautam is someone who lost the most recent parliamentary elections, which otherwise saw a near complete communist sweep. So what is the secret to his continued power despite the election loss?

“He is a good organizer and someone who has been continuously working for his party for nearly six decades,” says Hari Roka, a political analyst who has in the past worked with Gautam. Roka reckons Gautam did a sterling job as the head of the former CPN-UML’s organization department, and as such he has now been given the responsibility of leading the NCP’s organization department as well. “In the capacity of UML organization department head, Gautam was able to leave a good imprint on the party rank and file,” Roka adds. This legacy is now reflected in his clout in the 441-member NCP central committee.

According to Roka, Gautam is also someone capable of taking big risks at decisive moments.Gautam’s ambitions were whetted when he got to lead the UML organization department 22 years ago. Back then, he had initiated a signature campaign to dislodge party general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal. After he failed to do so and thereby to grab the leadership, he split the party, forming his breakaway CPN-ML. His newfangled party failed to win a single seat in the 1999 parliamentary elections, and he again merged with the UML. Yet the split had somewhat dented his reputation as he had come to be seen as a cunning backstabber.

Accustomed to power Says NCP leader Tanka Karki, who has also closely worked with the septuagenarian leader, “Gautam has continuously occupied powerful positions since 1990. In a feudal society, a leader who remains in power for so long invariably develops unique strengths.” Gautam joined the communist party in 1964 as full-time party cadre, and was first elected in the House of Representatives in 1991.

In 1997, he became home minister for the first time, a post he held thrice, in addition to becoming deputy prime minister three times as well. The Home is a powerful ministry and Gautam steadily increased his hold on the bureaucracy from there. In 2009, the UML Butwal general convention elected Gautam party vice-chair and that portfolio helped him cement his hold on the party as well. Besides, as a head of the party’s Peasant’s Federation, Gautam cultivated a good network of cadres across the country.

After the NCP’s formation in May 2018, party co-chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been lending a strong support to Gautam. Their relations go back a long way. During the Maoist insurgency, Gautam was in constant touch with the top Maoist brass and was of the view— against the prevailing wisdom at the time—that the Maoist party should be accommodated into the political mainstream. It was Gautam who along with leader Yubaraj Gyawali reached Rolpa to forge a six-point agreement aimed at the mainstreaming of the Maoists. (This agreement was the precursor to the later 12-point agreement between the Seven Party Alliance and the Maoists.)
He also played a vital role in the formation of the left alliance in 2017 and in the unification of CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center). Gautam in fact had been advocating for such unity since the 2006 political changes.Of late party co-chair Dahal has been publicly saying that Gautam’s time to be prime minister may have finally arrived.Gautam time?

The party secretariat’s decision to pick Gautam as a member of the National Assembly was opposed from in and outside the parliament. More than that, a proposal was floated to amend the constitution to pave the way for a National Assembly member to become prime minister. After widespread criticism, this plan was dropped—at least for the time being.

As constitutional lawyer Bipin Adhikari put it to APEX last week: “I do not think the House of Representatives would agree to tie up its hands and legs by allowing the National Assembly to pick a prime minister. The people who are pushing the amendment have not thought this through.”

Yet this is not the first time a politician defeated in national elections has tried to get to power through the backdoor—and succeeded. After his defeat in the first Constituent Assembly election in 2008, UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal was nonetheless handpicked as an MP and eventually got to become prime minister in 2009. Similarly, spokesperson of Nepal Communist Party Narayan Kaji Shrestha, who lost in 2017 from Gorkha, is now a nominated National Assembly member.
On Gautam, the common feeling, even within the NCP rank and file, is that once you lose a parliamentary election, you should have to wait for five years to be eligible for re-election. As constitutional lawyer Adhikari hinted, nor will it be easy for Gautam to get the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution in his favor.
Adds NCP’s Karki: “It is not about Gautam. It is a violation of the public mandate to appoint leaders who lost popular elections to the National Assembly, much less clear their path to the country’s top executive post.”

But why have top NCP leaders been seemingly so willing to address his demands? As Gautam is considered an expert manipulator of internal party politics, each of Oli, Nepal and Dahal, the leaders of three NCP factions, wants Gautam’s support to consolidate their power. Gautam’s contemporary UML colleagues like Oli, Nepal, and Jhala Nath Khanal have all gotten the top executive post in the country. Gautam, the oldest of the quartet, perhaps feels time is not on his hands .

The main opposition party is con­vening its General Convention, its top decision-making body, in the first week of February 2021. Incum­bent party President Sher Bahadur Deuba, 73, is looking to hang on, even after the party under him got a drubbing in the 2017 elections. Oth­er party leaders wanted him to take responsibility and resign; Deuba asked why only he had to pay.

Deuba could face a tough chal­lenge from Dr Shekhar Koirala who has been widely canvassing the country trying to drum up support for his candidacy for the president. He believes he is the right scion of the Koirala family and that Dr Sha­shank Koirala, the other Koirala can­didate for presidency, should make way for him. But Shashank, whose legacy as late BP’s son is unmatched and who got the popular vote during the last general convention en route to his election as general secretary, is in no mood to concede. Sujata Koirala, the daughter of late Girija Prasad, could also throw her hat in the ring at the last minute.

Ram Chandra Poudel, 75, who feels other senior leaders have long cheated him of party presidency, and even prime minister’s chair, thinks his time has finally come. Prakash Man Singh, another senior leader from the Poudel camp, also wants to fight for presidency. But if Poudel enters the ring, Singh is like­ly to settle for vice-president again.

The common feeling is that the Nepali Congress will struggle to be a competitive force again so long as the old bunch of leaders don’t retire and hand over leadership to younger Turks like Gagan Thapa, 43, and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, 49. Yet these leaders are likely to settle for general secretary, the second most powerful executive post, this time around. From the Deuba camp, spokesperson Bishwa Prakash Shar­ma is likely to fight for general sec­retary. Shekhar Koirala is trying to woo Gagan Thapa into his camp as a general secretary candidate.

There seems to be a clear choice for other camps fighting Deuba. Either they choose a common can­didate against the four-time prime minister, or Deuba wins again. “If there are multiple candidates, Deu­ba is sure to win again,” says senior NC leader Hom Nath Dahal, who has closely worked with Deuba in the past. No offense. But a Deuba win is not what most folks in or outside the party are looking forward to.

Nepali Congress bigwigs jostle for a supremacy after general convention dates out 

With the announcement of its General Convention date, the race for the posts of party president and general secre­tary, the two top executive posts in the Nepali Congress, is heating up.After a long tussle among rival fac­tions over convention procedures, the grand old party has decided to hold it in the first week of February 2021. Rival factions have intensified preparations to garner convention representatives.

The party has also unveiled the itinerary for its local and provincial conventions and for the finalization of convention representatives with voting rights. For party president, at least four top leaders—namely incumbent party president Sher Bahadur Deuba, senior leader Ram Chandra Poudel, General Secretary Shashank Koirala and Central Work­ing Committee member Shekhar Koirala—have staked their claims.

Four-time Prime Minister Deuba is again going for presidency, as he says he will retire only after again making NC a ‘great party’. The party had badly lost the 2017 fed­eral and provincial elections, and Deuba copped most of the blame for his supposed weak leadership. There was pressure on Deuba to step down; Deuba in turn argued that the party should take collective responsibility for the poor electoral outcome.

Deuba wants to be the party pres­ident till the next national elections in 2023 and to regain the party’s strength to prove that he is a capable leader. At the same time, accord­ing to insiders, Deuba is still in a dilemma about his successor and there is intense competition in the faction for the same: Bimalendra Nidhi, Purna Bahadur Khadka, Gya­nendra Bahadur Karki, Prakash Sha­ran Mahat, Biswoprakash Sharma, and Bal Krishna Khand are all in the fray.

From the main rival faction, Pou­del, a senior leader and ex-vice president, is fighting for party pres­idency this time. He reckons he should be the president at least once after repeatedly being denied the opportunity.

“As a senior leader, Poudel’s can­didacy is natural,” says NC leader Nabindra Raj Joshi. Prakash Man Singh, another senior leader from the Poudel camp, also wants to fight for presidency after having already served as general secretary and vice-president. But if Poudel fights from this camp, Singh is likely to settle for vice-president again.

The next Koirala

From the Koirala camp, there are at least two candidates for party president. Senior leader Shekhar Koirala has already launched a nationwide campaign. In the past two years, he has been continuously canvassing the country. Incumbent General Secretary Shanshank Koi­rala is also vying for party pres­idency. Both Koiralas say there will be a single candidate from the Koirala family. But who? Shekhar has kept himself away from fac­tional politics, while Shashank, who belongs to the Poudel faction, is also trying to project himself as being above factional politics. “Shekhar Koirala has been preparing for long and he seems to be in no mood to backtrack,” Joshi says.

In the previous convention in 2016, senior leader Krishna Prasad Sitaula had also fought for party presidency. This time, he is not fight­ing but is still leading an important faction. There is also a possibility of the Poudel, Koirala and Situala camps coming together to beat Deuba. In that case, it would be hard for Deuba to win. A leader requesting anonymity said a formula could be worked out whereby senior leader Poudel will be party candi­date for prime minister after the next election, in which case either Shanshank or Shekhar would be candidates for party president. Pou­del is not sold on this idea though.

Shashank Koirala, son of veteran NC leader BP, is in popular among party rank and file, mainly elder cadres. He won the popular votes while vying for the post of general secretary at the 2016 convention. If there is no agreement among Pou­del, Koirala, and Sitaula factions, there could be multiple candidates for president, a situation that will be to Deuba’s favor. “If there are multi­ple candidates, Deuba is sure to win again,” says senior NC leader Hom Nath Dahal, who has closely worked with Deuba in the past.

Young hopes

Voices in the party are growing that leadership should be handed over to youth leaders. Yet no youth leader is likely to be the party pres­ident in the upcoming convention, even if one of them could be the general secretary. All factions seem ready to give more space to young leaders, partly because of the feeling that youth leaders can regain the party’s strength and fight the mighty communist forces.

Even senior leaders think youths should get more leadership roles. What is going for the youths is that “there is widespread frustration over the leadership and there is also the anti-incumbency factor,” Dahal says.

From the Deuba camp, spokesper­son Biswoprakash Sharma is likely to fight for general secretary. Shek­har Koirala is trying to woo Gagan Thapa into his camp. According to party leaders, Thapa is almost sure to fight for general secretary. But there are challenges for youth leaders too.

In both Poudel and Deuba camps, there are influential older leaders who want to be general secretary. For instance, Ram Sharan Mahat, Arjun Narsingh KC, and Minendra Rijal are vying for senior positions from the Koirala camp. Similarly, Deuba has the challenge of man­aging leaders such as Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, Bal Krishna Khand, and Prakash Sharan Mahat. There is also the possibility of these leaders being managed at the provincial levels.

The previous general convention was held in 2016. The party statute says the convention should take place every four years, although there is room to push it off by a year. Soon after the party’s defeat in the 2017 elections, there was pressure on Deuba to call the convention in order to elect a new leadership. Deuba dismissed such demands. Historically, there has been a ten­dency in the Nepali Congress to indefinitely occupy the post of party president, barring youth leaders from leadership

Nepali Congress Landmarks

 January 25-26, 1947: Nepali National Congress formed, and Tanka Prasad Acharya, who was serving life imprisonment at the time, becomes president. BP Koirala is chosen acting president.

March 13, 1947: The party launches a massive coun­trywide anti-Rana regime demonstration. A labor movement is started at the Biratnagar Jute Mill under the leadership of Girija Prasad Koirala.

April 9, 1950: Nepali Congress formed through the merger of Nepali National Congress (established on 25 January 1947) and Nepal Democratic Congress (4 August 1948) in Calcutta, India, and an armed struggle is heralded. Matrika Prasad Koirala becomes the party president.

September 26-27, 1950: The Bair­gania Conference adopts the strat­egy of the armed revolt to overthrow the Rana regime.

November 6, 1950: The armed revolution starts with the support of King Tribhuvan who was in exile at the time.

February 18, 1951: The Rana regime falls, the Rana-Nepali Congress coalition government is formed on a parity basis, with Mohan Shumshere again serving as the prime minister.

May 23-26, 1952: The NC’s fifth National Convention at Janakpur elects BP Koirala party president.

January 24-25, 1956: The sixth National Convention in Birgunj adopts the principles of democratic social­ism and decentralization for social transformation. Subarna Shumshere elected as the president.

May 23, 1957: The Special National Convention in Biratnagar, Morang, reelects BP as party president.

February 18, 1959: First nationwide parliamentary election held with Nepali Congress getting two-thirds majority (74 out of 109 seats of parliament).

May 27, 1959: First elected government of Nepal formed under Prime Minister BP Koirala.

May 7-13, 1960: BP Koirala elected party president by the Seventh National Convention in Kathmandu.

December 1961: Another armed revolt kicks off fol­lowing King Mahendra’s 1959 coup.

February 12, 1976: BP nominates KP Bhattarai acting president of Nepali Congress.

January 17, 1992: KP Bhattarai elected party pres­ident by the Eighth National Convention in Kalwal­gudhi, Jhapa. Due to the erstwhile ban on political parties, the eighth convention was held 31 years after the seventh.

May 11, 1996: Girija Prasad Koirala elected party President by the Ninth National Convention in Kathmandu.

January 22, 2001: GP Koirala re-elected party president at the Tenth National Convention in Pokhara, Kaski.

June 18, 2002: Sher Bahadur Deuba breaks the party, forms his own, and calls it the real Nepali Congress. The party is later named Nepali Con­gress (Democratic).

August 30-September2, 2005: The 11th Party Con­vention reelects GP Koirala as the party president. One of the convention’s highlights is a resolution to delete constitutional monarchy from party statute.

25 September 2007: Nepali Congress (Democratic) and Nepali Congress merge.

22 September, 2010: Sushil Koirala becomes party president.

March 7, 2016: Sher Bahadur Deuba becomes party president.

 As the level of engagement between the two countries increases, the currently stable Nepal-China relations are likely to more and more resemble the topsy-turvy Nepal-India ties. Right now, the communist government in Kathmandu seems commit­ted to closer cooperation with Beijing, come what may. Pursued wisely, this policy of engagement with the Middle Kingdom could pay off. China seems committed to closer ties following the long-awaited Nepal visit by Xi Jinping last October. “The visit by a Chinese president after 23 years has helped scale up trust at the top political level, which in turn has had a pos­itive impact on other bilateral issues,” says Rupak Sapkota, deputy executive director of the Institute of Foreign Affairs, a govern­ment think-tank. The spreading coronavirus contagion in China could dent cooperation a bit, particularly in tourism. Nepal will now struggle to meet its goal of bringing 500,000 Chinese tourists in 2020. Otherwise, accord­ing to Sapkota, China has already assured of “special arrangements to offset the effects of coronavirus in projects, tourism, and other areas.”

The Chinese seem keen on improving the condition of the two roads linking the two countries: Araniko Highway and Kathman­du-Rasuwagadhi Highway as they believe that the much-touted rail-link could take some time to materialize, given the difficult terrains it has to pass through. If the two major road links can be turned to all-season routes, as China wants, bilateral trade could see a big boost.

Says Mrigendra Bahadur Karki, executive director of the Center for Nepal and Asian Studies, China has been in ‘action-mode’ in Nepal following Xi’s visit.

Headway in Chinese projects following Xi' s Nepal Visit 

Chinese President XI Jinping’s Nepal visit last October seems to have served as a catalyst to push forward several impending bilateral issues and projects. Apart from the agreements and under­standings signed, the visit helped resolve other pending issues as well.Xi was the first Chinese president to visit Nepal after a 23-year hiatus. During his visit, the two countries signed 20 agreements and under­standings. Before that, Nepali Pres­ident Bidya Devi Bhandari had vis­ited China in April 2019 to take part in the second Belt and Road Forum where she held high-level meetings and signed some agreements.

“The visit by a Chinese president after 23 years has helped scale up trust at the top political level, which in turn has had a positive impact on other bilateral issues,” says Rupak Sapkota, deputy executive director of the Institute of Foreign Affairs, a government think-tank. He adds that an environment of trust is already seen in multiple sectors.

Agreements are being imple­mented at a faster clip, although the coronavirus outbreak has affected them somewhat. “But as far as I know, the Chinese side has already assured Nepal that it would make special arrangements to offset the effects of coronavirus in projects, tourism, and other areas,” Sapkota says. After Xi’s visit, around two dozen Chinese delegations have come on follow-up visits to Nepal.

“At present, China and Nepal are stepping up efforts to implement the important agreements made by the leaders; some projects have already made progress,” said Chi­nese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi during a recent press meet.

Of late, the cross-border railway has been a hot topic of discussion. But due to the difficult terrains, the railway line will command tre­mendous resources, time, and cut­ting-edge technology. Regardless, the two sides are making progress on the rail line. After pre-feasibility, they have agreed to a three-phase feasibility study. In recent meet­ings, officials have agreed on what each side needs to do. Talks are also underway for the Kathamn­du-Pokhara-Lumbini railway lines.

Roads over rails

As the railway is still under study, it may take some time yet. At the moment, construction of new roads and upgrade of old ones remain a priority. There has already been some progress in upgrading two major roads connecting Nepal and China: Araniko Highway and Kath­mandu-Rasuwagadhi Highway.

The Chinese side is helping the Department of Roads in the third phase of maintenance of Aranika Highway, which was damaged by the 2015 earthquakes. There has also been an agreement to expand and blacktop Syaphrubesi-Rasuwagadhi section of the Kathmandu-Rasu­wagadi Highway. Yet with the Nepali side is yet to demolish roadside structures and remove electricity poles, there have also been delays. Once this phase is done, the road expansion will start in earnest.

If these two major highways come into operation in all seasons, they are expected to greatly boost bilat­eral trade. Due to the difficult ter­rains, the two sides have also agreed to build two tunnels along the high­ways to ease connectivity. An agree­ment to this effect was signed during Xi’s visit. “To facilitate the railway project, the process of building tun­nels has moved forward,” Prime Minister KP Oli said while address­ing the parliament on February 15. A team of Chinese technical officials is already in Nepal to study the tun­nels’ feasibility.

Mrigendra Bahadur Karki, execu­tive director of the Center for Nepal and Asian Studies, says that after Xi’s visit, China has been in action-mode in Nepal, which means all agreements signed during the visit will progress swiftly. “Xi came after the formation of a stable govern­ment in Nepal. It indicates China was in favor of a stable government so that projects could be imple­mented,” Karki says. “Obviously, China has become more proactive in Nepal, and this level of activity is only expected to rise.”

Delivering diversification

There has also been progress in the implementation of the Transit and Transport Agreement signed in 2016 as well. The follow-up proto­col implementation agreement was signed during President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s Beijing visit last year. The protocol came into effect on 1 January 2020. As per the agreement, Nepal is allowed the use of four Chi­nese ports for third-country trade and transit, in what is considered a major progress in changing Nepal’s land-locked status. It is a part of Nepal’s broader foreign policy of diversifying its trade and transit facilities.

There has also been a joint feasi­bility study for bilateral free trade agreement. China has been urging Nepal to sign the agreement at the earliest, but Nepal insists it needs more homework. The two countries are also in the process of choosing a location for China-Nepal Cross-bor­der Economic Cooperation Zone, and officials have already held a few rounds of talks in this regard.

Similarly, the two countries have agreed to hand over each other’s cit­izens who illegally cross the border, as a part of an agreement reached during XI’s visit on the boundary management system. Both the coun­tries are working to implement the agreement, even with concerns that such provisions could be misused to forcefully repatriate Tibetan ref­ugees.

Bilateral trade is also booming even though trade imbalance with China remains a concern. But things may be improving for Nepal. Accord­ing to data provided by the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu, “In the first 10 months of 2019, the trade volume between China and Nepal reached US $1.2 billion, an increase of 36.1 percent year-on-year, of which Nepal’s export to China increased by 58.1 percent.”

There is also increased collabo­ration in tourism. With Xi’s visit, the number of Chinese tourists is expected to rise, notwithstand­ing the effects of the coronavirus epidemic. Chinese investment is increasing every year; it is already the largest investor in recent years. In fiscal 2018/19, China's investment in Nepal was US $114 million.

Progress amid uncertainty

Despite progress in other areas, the finalization of projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is still being hindered. The two countries are yet to select BRI projects mainly due to differences over investment modality. Sapkota of the govern­ment think-tank blames the bureau­cracy’s tardiness for the slow prog­ress. “It is the responsibility of the taskforce formed under our foreign secretary to finalize technical details and present them to political leaders who can then settle other issues,” Sapkota says. Nepal had signed the BRI framework agreement in May 2017, and the government had ini­tially identified three dozen projects under it, which has now been cut to nine.

Ajaya Bhadra Khanal, research director at the Center for Social Inclusion and Federalism, says that China has adopted a policy of slowly but steadily expanding bilateral rela­tions after Xi’s visit. “Infrastruc­ture projects are in the preparatory stage, so there is not much visible progress. China has given priority to areas such as cultural relations, stra­tegic community and people-to-peo­ple ties,” adds Khanal, who has been involved in an in-depth research of Chinese engagement in Nepal in the recent past. “Enhancing political relationships is another priority area for China. China is developing ties not only inside the ruling Nepal Communist Party but also with the main opposition Nepali Congress and other parties.”

Even though there may in the future be many upheavals in Nepal-China ties, it is hard to see the increased level of engagement between them decrease

February 13th marked the 25th anniver­sary of the start of the Maoist ‘people’s war’ that kicked off in 1996 and formally ended with the signing of the Compre­hensive Peace Accord in 2006. As ex-Mao­ist leaders like Paudel put it, the decade-long war—in which around 17,000 peo­ple were killed and nearly 1,300 made to ‘disappear’—brought about revolutionary changes in Nepali society. According to its backers, the war was instrumental in the removal of monarchy, heralding of the new federal republic, empowerment of women and other marginalized groups in various ways, and in creating greater political awareness.

“Think about it. None of it would have been possible under the old 1990 constitu­tion,” says Paudel.

Yet there is also no shortage of harsh critics of the civil war who reckon the pro­gressive changes that the Maoists take credit for could have come even without the blood­shed. If the Maoists could bring about these changes through the barrels of their guns, they wouldn’t have had to lay down their arms and agree to a peaceful movement with other political parties, goes the count­er-argument. And it was this peaceful move­ment that overthrew the monarchy and brought about progressive changes. More­over, even without the Maoist war, these changes were inevitable in a fast-moderniz­ing world. What the war did instead, add the critics, was push Nepal’s development back by at least a decade and institutionalize a culture of violence.

The debate continues, even as the mother Maoist outfit under Pushpa Kamal Dahal that waged the civil war is no longer in exis­tence. With the armed phase of the Maoist movement apparently over, the party has merged with a mainstream communist party and the combined outfit now leads the government. When the mother Maoist outfit joined peaceful politics, dissent in the party had reached a new height, as the hardliners refused to accept the ‘surrender’ before parliamentary forces. As a result, multiple Maoist outfits splintered away. A few of them are still out to complete the ‘great revolution’ with guns.

“The most important question we have to ask while evaluating the Maoist insurgency is if it achieved its stated goal,” says Bhojraj Pokharel, a political analyst. “It didn’t. They talked about establishing a completely new system, and they failed.” Pokharel says the former revolutionaries have instead been thoroughly co-opted into the corrupt system they wanted to do away with. “This makes me wonder if all the violence was worth it,” Pokharel muses