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The 14th general convention of the ruling party Nepali Congress started in Kathmandu on Dec 10. Taking part at the inaugural ceremony were NC leaders, activists, general convention delegates, representatives, and national and international guests.

This was the first time in 11 months that KP Sharma Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and Madhav Kumar Nepal, heads of CPN-UML, CPN (Maoist Center), and CPN (Unified Socialist), respectively, were seen on the same stage.

Similarly, Chairman of JSPN Upendra Yadav, Chairman of Democratic Socialist Party Mahanta Thakur, Chairman of Rastriya Prajatantra Party Rajendra Lingden, Vice Chairman of Rastriya Janamorcha Durga Poudel, and other party leaders also participated.

Speaking at the gathering, BJP leader Harsha Vardan conveyed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's congratulatory message for the event.

The three-day event will elect new party leadership.

Born in a middle-class family in the Dadeldhura district of the far-western region, Sher Bahadur Deuba is now a five-time prime minister. Deuba, who became party president in 2016, is bent on repeating the feat at the 14th General Convention (GC) that begins on Dec 10.

If the anti-Deuba camp fails to come up with a consensual candidate, Deuba is likely to win the race again, say party leaders. Neither does Deuba come from a political family nor does he have mass appeal. He is not a good orator and has no fixed ideology. Yet he has still been at the forefront of both party and national politics for two and a half decades.

What is the source of Deuba’s power? Many portray him as lucky. Deuba himself reckons that fortune favors him. Three years ago, Deuba publicly cited a fortune-teller as telling him that he would become prime minister seven times. Yes, fortune may have favored him but he also has some distinct merits.

According to political analyst Purushottam Dahal, the credit for Deuba’s emergence as a strong leader goes to late veteran NC leaders Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and Ganesh Man Singh. After the revival of democracy in 1990, then NC leader Girija Prasad Koirala had started sidelining Bhattarai and Singh in order to embolden his position in the party.Bhattarai and Singh, according to Dahal, sought a strong leader who could challenge Koirala. They settled on Deuba, who would go on to become Home Minister (1991-1994). The Home Ministry is regarded as a strong platform from where to influence both the party as well as state mechanisms.

In a recent interview with Annapurna Post, current Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand said Deuba is today leading the same party faction that late Krishna Prasad Bhattarai did in early 1990s. After the restoration of democracy in 1990, there had been a bitter rivalry between Bhattarai and Koirala.

Even before that Deuba had demonstrated his organization skills, most notably as the president of the Nepal Student Union, the party’s sister organization, back in the 1970s.

Also read: General Conventions: Old parties, old faces 

Lokendra Bhatta, a seasoned journalist who closely tracks NC politics, says Deuba, unlike other leaders, works in a smart and strategic way and without much fanfare. “On the one hand, he highly impressed NC veterans such as BP Koirala, Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and Ganesh Man Singh with his organization skills. On the other hand, he also knew how to cultivate loyal cadres.”

Similarly, he emerged as a towering figure in the socially and economically backward far-western region. No leaders there dared to challenge him and so he was able to leverage his position there to his advantage. Since 1990, Deuba has won all parliamentary elections from Dadeldhura district.

He gradually cemented his position in the party and at the party’s 10th General Convention in 2001, Deuba fought for party presidency by leaving many senior leaders behind. He was eventually beaten by Girija Prasad Koirala who secured 936 of the 1,477 representative-votes, to Deuba’s 507. Though beaten, Deuba became successful in building his own powerful camp in the party. A major chunk of party leaders and cadres who were dissatisfied and disappointed with Koirala had supported Deuba.

In 2002 Deuba split the party due to the differences with Koirala. Around 40 percent of leaders and cadres joined the Deuba-led Nepali Congress (Democratic) which clearly showed Deuba’s hold in the party. In 2006, Deuba returned to NC, taking 40 percent share in all party organizations. But Deuba’s dream of becoming Party President materialized only in 2016. At the 13th General Convention in 2016, Deuba had failed to garner 51 percent votes to win the presidency outright. In the second round of voting he needed Krishna Prasad Sitaula’s support, to eventually get 58 percent votes and become party president.

Deuba’s marriage to Arzoo Rana also helped him strengthen his position in national politics as well as in the party. Arzoo helped Deuba connect with the monarchy. In the late 1990s, when the monarchy had a powerful influence in politics, Deuba became prime minister two times: 2004-2005, and 2001-2002.

Except in 2001, Deuba has always led diverse coalition governments, which also hints at his organization skills. Arzoo also helped Deuba build good rapport with the international community; it is widely believed that Deuba is close with western powers.

Also read: Delhi undecided as Deuba seeks its blessings 

As prime minister and party president, Deuba introduced some progressive policies that also enhanced his profile. For instance, when he led Nepali Congress (Democratic) in 2002, he formed an inclusive Central Committee by accommodating Dalit, Janajati and other marginalized communities, says journalist Bhatta. Even today, according to Bhatta, influential leaders from marginalized communities who have a strong hold in party organizations are with Deuba. Deuba also won the support of state’s key institutions such as army, police, judiciary and bureaucracy due to his hands-off nature of functioning.

At the same time, Deuba is charged with misusing state powers to strengthen his position in power. Even now, Deuba is accused of accommodating businessmen, traders and brokers in the party, while sidelining honest and committed leaders and cadres. This strategy, according to Deuba’s critics, has helped him amass money which in turn is being used to buy patronage. 

An NC leader requesting anonymity says Deuba is adept at applying the power of money and muscle to strengthen his hold in the party.

After Girija Prasad Koirala’s demise in 2010, Deuba became even more powerful because GPK’s successor Sushil Koirala failed to keep the anti-Deuba faction intact. For instance, Krishna Prasad Sitaula did not join the faction led by Sushil Koirala and or the one by Ram Chandra Poudel. Similarly, there was a tussle within this camp and the Koirala dynasty tried to make their own camp.

After 2017, when Nepali Congress faced a humiliating defeat in parliamentary elections, Deuba has been under pressure to retire from active politics. Yet, as luck would have it, just when his clout in the party was waning, he got to become prime minister again, right on the eve of the 14th General Convention.

Most recently, Deuba has strengthened his hold on the party after Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar, a top Tharu leader who left NC in 2008 to form Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, returned to the mother party in 2017. Gachhadar and his team strongly back Deuba. In 2020, Sunil Bahadur Thapa, the son of veteran Rastriya Prajatantra Party leader Surya Bahadur Thapa, also joined NC and sided with Deuba.

The fortune-teller’s prediction that Deuba will go on to become prime minister seven times appears unlikely. But who knows. He is one person who has always defied the odds.  

Deuba’s political journey

13 June 1946: Birth

1965 to 1968: Chairman, Far-Western Students’ Committee

1971 to 1980: Founder member and President of the Nepal Students’ Union.

1985: Played a leading role in the civil disobedience movement.

Dec 1991-Sept 1994: Minister of Home Affairs

1991: Party’s political in-charge of far-western region

Nov 1994-Sept 1995: Member of Parliament and Nepali Congress parliamentary party leader.

Sept 1995-March 1997: Prime Minister

Aug 2001-Oct 2002: Prime Minister

Sept 2002-Jan 2006: President, Nepali Congress (Democratic)

June 2004-Feb 2005: Prime Minister

June 2017-Feb 2018: Prime Minister

March 2016-present: President of Nepali Congress

July 2021-present: Prime Minister

In his first term as CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli had unprecedented powers both as party chief and prime minister. For one, no leader in the country’s democratic history, except Nepali Congress leader BP Koirala following 1959 elections, had gotten to lead a powerful government with a two-thirds parliamentary majority.  

There is already much speculation over his second term, which started with his reelection as chairman at the 10th UML General Convention that ended on November 30. The convention concluded with the UML vowing to return to the government as the single-largest party.  

Says Lokraj Baral, a political analyst, Oli failed to capitalize on his immense power and opportunity in his first term. Oli’s undemocratic character and his intention of capturing all powers were the main reasons for this failure, says Baral.

In the party’s ninth General Convention in 2014, there had been a tight competition between Oli and Madhav Kumar Nepal for party chair. Oli was elected with 1,002 votes, while his rival Nepal secured 963 votes. The voting pattern of the ninth GC clearly demonstrated that Oli and Nepal had almost equal hold in party structures.

Soon after becoming party chair, Oli’s primary goal was to weaken Nepal’s position in the party and emerge as the indubitable leader. He went to the extent of stripping Nepal of his ‘senior leader’ position.  Due to Oli’s “continuous humiliation and harassment,” Nepal decided to part ways and form a breakaway CPN (Unified Socialist). 

Also read: Editorial: Exclusionary UML 

After the party split, observers say, Oli has lost his charm and strength. Says veteran communist leader Radha Krishna Mainali, Oli may have become strong in terms of amassing resources but his political stature is declining. “The powerful Nepal Communist Party suffered a three-way split and Oli is now leading one faction of the three. His strength has substantially decreased,” he says.  

In 2018, Oli had merged UML with CPN (Maoist Center) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal to form a political juggernaut: Nepal Communist Party (NCP). But then he refused to share party and state power with Dahal, his co-chair, and he continued to sideline the Nepal faction, which had secured almost equal votes in the ninth General Convention. To fight Oli’s unilateral ways, the Dahal-Nepal alliance took shape. But with the Supreme Court’s decision to recognize NCP, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) were revived. Oli then failed to keep CPN-UML intact.

Oli has been reelected UML chair after seven years, with a huge margin of victory over his only rival Bhim Rawal. Party leaders say although the 10th convention has strengthened Oli it has weakened the party, something which was also evident during the convention. Rawal challenged his ambition of being elected unopposed from the convention floor.  “Oli’s intent was to become Nepal’s version of China’s Xi Jinping. His goal was foiled when some rebel leaders decided to stand against him,” says Baral.  

Instead of encouraging aspirants for party posts to contest elections, Oli tried to block their path and handpicked a team that was favorable to him, annoying a large chunk of leaders and cadres. In the past, Oli had been a fierce champion of intra-party democracy.

Party leaders such as Ghanashyam Bhusal, Bhim Rawal, and Bhim Acharya, among others, have been sidelined. Even after the UML split, Oli has shown no sign of mending his ways. Addressing the convention’s concluding ceremony, Oli said that he was against party unification. Instead, efforts would be made to lure cadres from other parties.

Also read: General Conventions: Old parties, old faces 

According to a UML leader who spoke on the condition of anonymity, from this convention Oli wanted to prevent the emergence of any faction to challenge him. “The convention ended up sowing the seeds of intra-party rifts. Many leaders from Oli’s own camp such as Subas Nembang, Bishnu Poudel, and others are unhappy. The intra-party disputes will come to the fore once Oli forms a politburo and a standing committee,” says the leader.

Analysts Baral says Oli’s revival as a powerful leader is unlikely. “Oli’s downward-journey has already begun, and he will have a tough time reviving the party,” he says. 

Leader Mainlai paints a gloomy picture of Oli’s performance during his first tenure as party chairman and he is not very optimistic about the future either. “CPN-UML has been weakened. Oli may also have sufficient financial resources but politically, he has weakened,” says Mainali. “The 10th General Convention should have come up with a new political vision for the party but Oli has failed in that bid.”

The 10th GC of the party concluded on November 30 by electing a 301-member Central Committee and the party formed a 19-member team of office-bearers. UML has become the first major party to hold its convention after the promulgation of new constitution in 2015. Oli will remain at the party’s helm till 2026.   

The United States, over the past couple of years, has stepped up its engagement with South Asian, including in Nepal, promoted by  China’s growing military, economic and political footprints in these countries. Mainly after the promulgation of the new constitution in 2015—a period also marked by growing US-China tensions—Washington has substantially increased its presence in Nepal, say observers.

America was the second country, after the United Kingdom, to establish diplomatic ties with Nepal. Given its strategic location, Nepal has always been on the US radar. For a long time, there was an impression in Kathmandu that Washington sees Nepal through Indian eyes and it lacked an ‘independent Nepal policy.’ Indeed, during the Maoist insurgency and the subsequent signing of the peace deal between the Maoists and the Seven Party alliance, the US closely worked with India on Nepal-related issues.

But over the past few years there have been visible changes in US policy towards South Asia, including Nepal, as US officials seem to increasingly separate India from the rest of South Asia in their policy engagements. A series of high-level visits in the recent past suggest that the US wants deeper engagement with Nepal.   

Kelly Keiderling, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Public Diplomacy who oversees South Asia (except India), minced no words in saying that other South Asian countries get overshadowed as America’s political leadership naturally gives more attention to India.

Keiderling, who was in Nepal last week, said: “… We divided India from Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, and other South Asian countries because India naturally gets too much attention from our political leadership. We want to boost our relation with India but if we keep India with other countries including Nepal, they are going to be lost bureaucratically.”

She said that the US wants closer engagement on several issues. “There is much potential in a country like Nepal, and we want to be a part of that potential. We pay close attention to that potential,” she said. 

What then are the key American strategic interests in Nepal?

Also read: The many Indias in Nepal 

Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs, Donald Lu, who visited Nepal last week, broadly highlighted three key interests. The biggest interest is collaborating with Nepal on its economic development to eradicate poverty. Second, he said, America would like to increase trade and investment. He then said America would also like to see Nepal as an independent and sovereign country.

“Nepal is a big country but you are between two bigger countries [India and China]. It is really important for the US that Nepal remains an independent and sovereign country,” he added.

A series of recent unprecedented visits also demonstrate the US’s growing interest in Nepal. Suresh Chalise, former Nepali Ambassador to Washington, says the US has increased its engagements not only in Nepal but in the entire region.

“There are several issues between the two countries,” says Chalise. “The US is supporting Nepal’s social and economic development. The MCC remains unsettled and there are engagements relating to the environment, mountains, among others.”

In the past couple of years, a $500 million grant under Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), has become a contentious issue in bilateral relations, overshadowing others.  

In 2017, the two countries signed the compact to spur economic growth and reduce poverty in Nepal. The MCC Nepal compact, the first in South Asia, purportedly aims to strengthen Nepal’s energy sector, improve regional energy connectivity, and control transport costs to encourage growth and the private sector.

As per the agreement, the compact should have come into effect in 2019—yet it remains to be endorsed by the Nepali parliament.

America is pressing Nepali political parties for its early parliamentary ratification, without which implementation can’t move ahead. Over the past few weeks, a series of meetings between Nepal and American officials have focused on the MCC compact, with Nepali leaders assuring that the compact would be ratified by political consensus.

In the second week of September, Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Vice President of Compact Operations Fatema Z Sumar visited Nepal, again to press Nepal’s parties on early ratification.

Sumar and Jonathan Brooks, MCC’s Deputy Vice President for Europe, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America, met community, business, and political leaders to discuss the economic opportunities provided by the compact and to offer any needed clarifications.

But whether or not the MCC compact is endorsed, say US officials, bilateral ties will continue to be on sound footing. Stating that it is up to Nepal political parties and parliament to settle the MCC, America wants the MCC debate done and dusted with soon. Though there are no specific deadlines, the MCC board convenes on February 14, and it is likely to take a final call on the compact. 

Amid growing Chinese influence, the US also wants to work closely with Nepal on democracy-promotion. America has invited Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to the ‘Summit of Democracy’ which President Joe Biden is organizing in December.

Climate change is another area where the US plans to work closely with Nepal. Former foreign minister Pradeep Kumar Gyawali says Nepal can benefit from the US leadership on climate change. The US Embassy in Kathmandu consistently says that the US wants to work closely with Nepal on climate change.

Over the past seven decades, Nepal has been blipping more and more on the US radar. In 1950, the principal aim of US policy was to minimize the influences of communist China and other powers. The year 1960 thus saw a huge surge in American aid.

In the 1970s, America’s aid decreased slightly; in the 1980s, America focused on human rights and in the 1990s, its priority was democratic governance and free markets.  

After 9\11, America’s interest and engagement with Nepal increased substantially. After 2015, Washington has set new priorities and it now seems more and more concerned over growing Chinese economic and military influences in Nepal.

US interests in Nepal have increased

Pradeep Gyawali, Former Foreign Minister

Nepal-US relations are over seven decades old and the ties are going from strength to strength due to our special geopolitical location in South Asia.

After 9/11, America’s interest in Nepal increased substantially—as suggested by the visit of then-Secretary of State Colin Powell. At that time, America wanted to collaborate with Nepal in its global war against terrorism. This was a new issue in our bilateral ties.

America has always given high priority to Nepal. Most recently, during the Nepal visit of its officials, it has been trying to cover two bases: development projects such as the MCC and Nepal’s involvement in key events such as the Summit of Democracy.

Another of America’s concerns, from which we can benefit, is climate change. The US is trying to lead the fight against climate change. We should utilize such an interest, keeping our national interest at the center and without compromising on our foreign policy basics.

Not only America, the whole world’s concerns and interest has grown in Nepal after we promulgated the new constitution. Before that, Nepal was not much of a priority for global powers. But with the new constitution, we changed our whole identity on the global stage.

Nepal is headed towards political stability and it has finally become a safe place for investment. In the past three years, there have been substantial changes in Nepal’s identity before the world.

Recent high-level US visits to Nepal 

17 November 2021: Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs, Donald Lu, along with Deputy Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Kelly Keiderling

9 September 2021: Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Vice President of Compact Operations, Fatema Z. Sumar

20 February 2020: Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s (HFAC) Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation, Representative Ami Bera  

7 February 2020: Millennium Challenge Corporation’s Deputy Vice President for Europe, Asia, Pacific, and Latin America Jonathan Brooks

1 November 2019: Ambassador at Large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback

24 Feb 2019: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia Dr Joe Felter

11 January 2019: Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Phil Davidson

25 May 2018: A delegation from the US Government’s Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) led by Jonathan Brooks, Deputy Vice President for Europe, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America

3 March 2017: The US Pacific Commander Admiral Harry B Harris Jr

Recent high-level Nepal visits to US

18 December 2018: Minister for Foreign Affairs Pradeep Kumar Gyawali on 18-20 December 2018 for delegation-level talks with Secretary of State Michael Pompeo.

14 February 2017: Finance Minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki

2017: Chief of the Army Staff General Rajendra Chhetri to take part in Global Chiefs of Defense Conference on Countering-Violent Extremist Organization.