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Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba seems bent on tabling the $500-million American grant agreement in the form of the under Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact in the current session of Parliament. He is requesting his coalition partners to allow him to do so. This is exactly what Americans have been saying to Nepal’s major parties: take it or leave it but decide on the compact right away.

Even as other members of the ruling coalition have rather ambiguous positions on the compact, PM Deuba’s position is clear enough: the compact is in national interest and must thus be ratified. As the compact begins to shake the roots of the current coalition, PM Deuba has offered a middle path to his partners CPN (Maoist Center) and CPN (Unified Socialist) to prevent a possible split in the coalition.

Deuba has reportedly told them that he would not ask coalition partners to vote either in favor of or against the compact. He only wants to be able to table it in parliament. But if tabled, the two parties will be in a tricky position of having to potentially vote against a parliamentary bill brought by its coalition partner.

Senior NC ministers are in regular consultations to convince coalition partners. On February 1, senior minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki held a long conversation with CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Dahal and on February 2, Home Minister Balkrishna Khand held talks with CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal. Similarly, Deuba, Dahal, and Nepal have been meeting on a regular basis to find a common position.

In a meeting with Dahal and Nepal on February 2, PM Deuba said that he wants to endorse the MCC without breaking the five-party coalition. Discussions are underway to pass the MCC. The PM has sought a list of points that we want to amend, the coalition will remain intact, says Nepal.

Jagannath Khatiwada, the spokesperson of CPN (Unified Socialist), says PM Deuba is unlikely to push the compact at the cost of unraveling the ruling coalition. Deuba rather wants to table it and show the Americans that he did what he could, says Khatiwada.

CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is under pressure to take a position on the compact. On the one hand, Dahal, dispatching a letter, has assured the Americans that the compact would be endorsed by forging consensus. On the other hand, he has trained his cadres that the compact in its current form is unacceptable. The latter is also the formal position of the Maoist party.

According to leaders, Dahal would prefer to discuss the compact only after elections, with the society bitterly divided on it. But the Americans have repeatedly conveyed that they cannot wait till elections and the compact must be endorsed from the current parliament session.

In this context, Dahal is consulting party colleagues to find a face-saver. He has shared with his close aides that the party could choose not to impose whip in the voting process, allowing lawmakers to use their conscience. Similarly, Dahal has told party colleagues that Deuba has agreed to endorse a parliamentary resolution motion stating that the compact is not a part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy and Nepal will as such not join any military alliance.

Says NC leader Pushpa Bhushal, this option has been considered in the political circles for a long time. “The first order of business is to table the MCC bill in the full House. Only after that will the resolution motion and other issues be discussed,” says Bhushal.

This, Dahal believes, could provide another face-saver. Another coalition partner CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal agrees. Of late, Nepal has not spoken publicly about the compact but senior leader Jhala Nath Khanal has been insistent that it can be endorsed only after amendments. Khanal also claims to have received some new documents, which will take some time to study. But the office of MCC in Nepal has clarified that there are no such documents that remain to be studied.

At the same time, Speaker Agni Sapkota has hardened his position on the compact. To table the MCC bill in full House, Sapkota has set three conditions, according to a member of his secretariat: consensus among parties, addressing of public issues over the compact, and lifting of UML’s parliament obstruction as the compact cannot be endorsed otherwise. So, without an agreement among Deuba, Nepal, and Dahal, the speaker is unlikely to cooperate.

But the ball is still largely in Deuba’s court. If he is determined to endorse the compact irrespective of its consequences on the coalition, an entirely new political scenario could emerge. First, if the speaker refuses to budge from his position, PM Deuba has to remove the speaker and for that he needs the support of UML, which means a breakdown of the ruling coalition. 

UML may help Deuba remove the speaker but it is uncertain if it will continue to support Deuba as PM. Says CPN (Unified Socialist)’s Khatiwada, UML, in this scenario, may ask for government leadership. Moreover, if Deuba dissolves the parliament, the Supreme Court is likely to restore it. At the same time, Deuba is cautious that a split in the coalition could bring the communist parties together, which will make it difficult for NC to emerge as the largest electoral force.

So there are chances of Deuba convincing Americans that he did what he could, and thus the ruling coalition will also continue.

There are growing concerns inside the Nepali Congress about the electoral consequences of Deuba’s stand in the compact’s favor. Whether the compact moves ahead or not, communist parties are sure to make it a major election plank, much to the detriment of Congress.

As the UML is to take a position on the compact, members of the ruling coalition fear that the party could, in the lead up to elections, heap all the blame for the compact’s endorsement on the ruling coalition.

Leaders of the Maoist Center and CPN (Unified Socialist) are trying to convince NC leaders that it would be prudent to take a final call on the compact only after elections.

As the compact continues to create friction among coalition partners, UML is keenly watching. It has been saying that the ruling coalition has a comfortable majority to endorse the compact, and as such there is no question of its support.

The coming week is going to be crucial, as the prime minister wants to table the MCC bill in Parliament on February 9. Nepali Congress leaders say, in the worst-case scenario, the parliament could be dissolved, again to the benefit of the UML.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, CPN (Maoist Centre) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal and CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal held a meeting on Wednesday.

Dahal and Nepal reached Baluwatar this morning to hold a meeting with the Prime Minister.

“The trio discussed contemporary political issues for about an hour,” the PM's Secretariat said.

Earlier on Tuesday, PM Deuba held a meeting with the officials of the Election Commission to hold the local level elections on May 18.

The Prime Minister is planning to announce the date of the local elections in the next Cabinet meeting.

However, the parties in the ruling coalition have differences over the parliamentary ratification of the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC).

CPN (Maoist Centre) and CPN (Unified Socialist) have been saying that the MCC should not be endorsed in the status quo. On the other hand, PM Deuba is in favour of endorsing the MCC at any cost.

CPN (Unified Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal said that the alliance will be stronger than before. 

He said so during a programme organised in the party office on Wednesday.

Chairman Nepal said that all the parties of the ruling coalition will move ahead as a team till the upcoming elections. 

“The five-party alliance will not break down. We will make the coalition stronger,” he said. 

Leader Nepal said that false rumours are making rounds that the alliance will be divided before the elections.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West on Tuesday of deliberately creating a scenario designed to lure it into war and ignoring Russia's security concerns over Ukraine, Reuters reported.

In his first direct public comments on the crisis for nearly six weeks, a defiant Putin showed no sign of backing down from security demands that the West has called non-starters and a possible excuse to launch an invasion, which Moscow denies.

"It's already clear now ... that fundamental Russian concerns were ignored," Putin said at a news conference with the visiting prime minister of Hungary, one of several NATO leaders trying to intercede with him as the crisis has intensified.

Putin described a potential future scenario in which Ukraine was admitted to NATO and then attempted to recapture the Crimea peninsula, territory Russia seized in 2014.

"Let's imagine Ukraine is a NATO member and starts these military operations. Are we supposed to go to war with the NATO bloc? Has anyone given that any thought? Apparently not," he said.

Russia has massed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border and Western countries say they fear Putin may be planning to invade.

Russia denies this but has said it could take unspecified military action unless its security demands are met. Western countries say any invasion would bring sanctions on Moscow.

The Kremlin wants the West to respect a 1999 agreement that no country can strengthen its own security at the expense of others, which it considers at the heart of the crisis, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

He raised the charter signed in Istanbul by members of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which includes the United States and Canada, during a call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Lavrov said Blinken accepted the need to discuss the matter further whilst a US account of the call focused on the need for Moscow to pull back.

"If President Putin truly does not intend war or regime change, the Secretary told Foreign Minister Lavrov then this is the time to pull back troops and heavy weaponry and engage in a serious discussion," a senior State Department official told reporters.

The US is willing to discuss giving the Kremlin a way to verify the absence of Tomahawk cruise missiles at NATO bases in Romania and Poland, if Russia shares similar information about missiles on certain Russian bases, Bloomberg reported.

The White House and State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment but a source familiar with the situation said the United States has only offered to have talks on a variety of Russia's concerns, such as arms control issues in the appropriate forums.

'INSTRUMENT'

Putin had not spoken publicly about the Ukraine crisis since Dec. 23, leaving ambiguity about his personal position while diplomats from Russia and the West have been engaged in repeated rounds of talks.

His remarks on Tuesday reflected a world view in which Russia needs to defend itself from an aggressive and hostile United States. Washington is not primarily concerned with Ukraine's security, but with containing Russia, Putin said.

"In this sense, Ukraine itself is just an instrument to achieve this goal," he said.

"This can be done in different ways, by drawing us into some kind of armed conflict and, with the help of their allies in Europe, forcing the introduction against us of those harsh sanctions they are talking about now in the US"

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has often sparred with Western European leaders over democracy in his own country, said he believed after his talks with Putin that there was room for a compromise.

"I got convinced today that the existing differences in positions can be bridged and it is possible to sign an agreement that would guarantee peace, guarantee Russia's security and is acceptable for NATO member states as well," Orban said.

GUN TO UKRAINE'S HEAD

As Western countries rush to show solidarity with Ukraine, the U.S. urged Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to cancel a visit with Putin in Russia, a source told Reuters.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv and accused Putin of holding a gun to Ukraine's head to demand changes to the security architecture in Europe.

"It is vital that Russia steps back and chooses a path of diplomacy," Johnson said. "And I believe that is still possible. We are keen to engage in dialogue, of course we are, but we have the sanctions ready, we're providing military support and we will also intensify our economic cooperation."

Johnson said any Russian invasion of Ukraine would lead to a military and humanitarian disaster.

"There are 200,000 men and women under arms in Ukraine, they will put up a very, very fierce and bloody resistance," he said. "I think that parents, mothers in Russia should reflect on that fact and I hope very much that President Putin steps back from the path of conflict and that we engage in dialogue."

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, also visiting Kyiv, said Poland would help Ukraine with gas and arms supplies, as well as humanitarian and economic aid.

"Living close to a neighbour like Russia, we have the feeling of living at the foot of a volcano," said Morawiecki.

Zelenskiy, who has repeatedly played down the prospect of an imminent invasion, signed a decree to boost his armed forces by 100,000 troops over three years. He urged lawmakers to stay calm and avoid panic.

The troop increase was "not because we will soon have a war ... but so that soon and in the future there will be peace in Ukraine," Zelenskiy said.