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Embattled Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is more than certain to lose the confidence vote on July 12. However, as he is determined not to step down easily, one thing is clear: There won’t be a smooth, amicable transition of power.

From the parliament’s lectern, Dahal is expected to criticize CPN-UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba for their surprise alliance, which reduced his government to a minority. The Maoist prime minister may accuse them of political backstabbing, question their political morality, and warn against their plan to amend the constitution. Yet, does Dahal have the moral high ground to criticize NC and UML?

Indeed, it would have been better if NC and UML had made the secret agreement's text public, but they did not. But a careful review of Dahal’s 10-year journey since the 2015 constitution shows he has no grounds to complain about betrayal by NC and UML.

Let’s revisit some instances where Dahal used NC and UML after one another to his advantage. After the promulgation of the constitution in 2015, Oli became the new prime minister with support from Dahal, whose party was in third place. But by July 2016, Dahal withdrew support from Oli and aligned with the NC to form a new government and become prime minister for the second time. Despite being in coalition with NC, Dahal later secretly signed a deal with UML for an electoral alliance, betraying NC.

In 2018, Dahal merged his party with CPN-UML to form the Nepal Communist Party, aiming to lead the powerful communist party. When Oli denied him the full-fledged party presidency, Dahal campaigned to remove Oli from power. This intra-party feud led to the dissolution of Parliament, for which all senior NCP leaders share responsibility. An agreement between Deuba and Dahal to lead the government in rotation resulted in more power struggles. 

After the 2022 national elections, where the Maoists secured only 32 of 275 seats, it was natural for NC to claim government leadership as the largest party. But Dahal, after tough bargaining, aligned with UML to become prime minister, only to betray UML in the presidential elections by supporting NC candidate Ram Chandra Paudel.

There may have been hidden factors forcing Dahal to support Paudel, but it was still a betrayal to UML. In March of this year, Dahal again ditched NC without warning and allied with UML. Just a few weeks ago, Dahal publicly suggested the government could last the full five-year tenure if they navigated between the first and second largest parties. His penchant for switching sides to suit his convenience is not hidden, as he has often demonstrated over the years. Several of Dahal’s former Maoist comrades, including former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai, have accused him of being a power-hungry individual with little to no regard for party ideology.      

Certainly there is no shortage of moral decay and corruption within NC and UML, but should anyone point the finger at or cry foul over their alliance, Dahal should be the last person. 

Dahal simply lacks the moral ground to accuse NC and UML of political immorality. Instead, he should be grateful for their support, which allowed him to lead the government despite waning support for the Maoists. In a coalition, even a small party can lead, but based on the people's mandate, the Maoists should have been in opposition, rebuilding their position. Doors may not be completely closed for him; he could become prime minister again if a rift emerges between NC and UML.

The best option for Dahal would have been to resign once UML withdrew its support. It is perceived that he is trying to influence President Paudel to initiate the government formation process through Article 76(3) of the constitution, making Deuba the prime minister. However, it is unlikely as the process should start from the initial articles of the constitution. Dahal has not publicly stated this, but his close associates suggest the President should appoint a new prime minister per Article 76(3). President Paudel has indicated to Oli and Deuba that he would begin the process from Article 76(2).

While an NC-UML government may not ensure stability, Dahal should wait. After a long gap, the first and second largest parties have pledged to provide political stability and address economic woes. The Maoists now have the chance to play the opposition role, and Dahal should seize this opportunity to rebuild his party. There is no reason for Dahal to be shocked by the NC-UML agreement.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has removed party General Secretary Mukul Dhakal from his post.

A meeting of the party's Central Committee today decided to remove Dhakal from the party central member, spokesperson and general secretary post on the recommendation of the party's Disciplinary Committee.

Acting spokesperson of the party Manish Jha said that the Central Committee unanimously dismissed Dhakal from his party post.  With this, Dhakal's general membership of the party has been retained.

The meeting chaired by party President and Deputy Prime Minister Rabi Lamichhane has decided that Dhakal can appeal the Central Committee's decision if he disagrees with it.

The RSP has constituted the party's review committee under the convenorship of party Joint General Secretary Bipin Acharya.

To the question whether it could be considered normal that the party's General Secretary has to face action just for expressing his critical views within the party, party spokesperson Jha said, "Action has been taken against him (Dhakal) as he failed to show politically proper behavior."

Two-thirds of the House of Representatives members now support the agreement between the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML to form a national unity government, though the specifics of the agreement remain undisclosed. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s major coalition partners, the CPN-UML and other smaller parties, have withdrawn their support, leaving his government in the minority.

This situation puts pressure on Dahal to resign, which is being pushed by his own party and other political factions. However, Dahal has decided to seek a vote of confidence on July 12. According to cross-party leaders, Dahal is offering the premiership to NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba to disrupt the NC-UML agreement. He has indicated that the Maoists are willing to support Deuba for a full term until the next elections in 2027. This offer was made the day after Deuba and UML leader Oli signed their agreement, but Deuba dismissed it.

Despite Deuba’s rejection, Dahal continues to reach out to NC leaders. Two days ago, he invited senior NC leader Shekhar Koirala to his residence for discussions. Koirala attended the meeting with the consent of Deuba. Sources say Koirala told Dahal that reversing the current situation is almost impossible. Even senior leaders within Dahal’s own CPN (Maoist Center) are advising him to resign, but Dahal insists there is still room for political maneuvering. After the NC-UML agreement, the Rastriya Swatantra Party decided to leave the government, but Dahal asked them to stay until the confidence vote.

There is some dissatisfaction within NC and UML ranks regarding the opaque agreement between Oli and Deuba, but no leader has openly criticized it. Both parties have unanimously endorsed the agreement. NC leaders believe Dahal’s efforts to form an alliance with UML are unlikely to succeed, despite his attempts. Some ambiguous provisions in the agreement might be exploited to prevent Oli from becoming prime minister, but it is almost certain that Oli will ascend to the position under Article 76(2) of the Constitution, which mandates a coalition government since no single party has a majority under Article 76(1).

Dahal and his allied constitutional experts argue that if Dahal’s government, formed under Article 76(2), fails to secure a vote of confidence, the President should initiate government formation under Article 76(3). This would mean appointing the parliamentary party leader of the largest party, likely Deuba. Neutral constitutional experts, however, assert that the government formation process should start under Article 76(2) again after July 12. If the government is formed under either Article 76(2) or 76(3), it is likely to face legal challenges, much like the 2021 Supreme Court verdict on Oli's dissolution of the House before its term ended. The verdict emphasized that all provisions of Article 76 should be tested to form a government.

The unexpected agreement between NC and UML has left Dahal, who had maintained power by striking a balance between NC and UML, in shock. He was confident that the rival NC and UML would not join forces. Additionally, Maoist leaders believed external forces would prevent Oli from coming to power. Dahal had been frequently changing coalition partners and was recently preparing to align with NC leaders again in the guise of forming a national unity government.

NC and UML were growing weary of Dahal's tactics, and there had been long-standing support within both parties for a coalition. The deteriorating economic conditions, frequent government changes, growing communal tensions and problematic constitutional provisions compelled the first and second largest parties to unite to address the country's challenges. The rise of new political parties also gave impetus to this unconventional alliance.

In this context, Dahal’s attempts to reverse the situation are unlikely to succeed. NC leaders state that Deuba is not willing to accept Dahal’s offer of the premiership. After nearly a decade, NC and UML are joining forces again, reminiscent of their successful collaboration in 2014 to deliver the Constitution in 2015. Now, they aim to form a strong government to resolve the current problems facing the country.

The CPN-UML has quit the Bagmati Province government. 

All the five ministers, who were representing the party in the provincial council of ministers, submitted their resignation to Chief Minister Shalikram Jamkattel.

Those resigning from their posts are Minister for Economic Affairs and Planning Jagannath Thapaliya, Minister for Forests and Environment Keshav Prasad Pokhrel, Minister for Water Supply, Energy and Irrigation Eklal Shrestha, Minister for Health Rameshwar Shrestha and Minister for Industry, Commerce and Land Administration Prakash Shrestha.

The UML ministers resigned from their posts after an agreement was reached between the UML and the Nepali Congress to form a national consensus government.