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CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been making provocative statements these days. While his rhetoric lacks a clear roadmap, it hints at potential shifts in Nepal’s political landscape. Recently, Dahal admitted he had made a mistake by forming alliances with the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML, alliances he has benefited from for over a decade. Despite this, he vowed that his party would contest the upcoming elections independently.

Inconsistent statements characterize Dahal’s political narrative. He has repeatedly claimed he has no intention of becoming prime minister during the current Parliament's term, set to expire in 2027. Yet, on November 16, he unveiled a potential strategy for reclaiming power. He declared that his party’s “magic number of 32” in the House of Representatives could topple the existing coalition. This assertion underscores his urgency to reassert dominance, as Maoist leaders acknowledge that failure to break the NC-UML coalition before the 2027 elections could spell trouble for their party's survival. A senior Maoist leader candidly remarked, “To maintain at least our current strength, we must either ally with the NC or UML, which necessitates dismantling the coalition.”

Maoist leaders believe the current government faces two primary vulnerabilities. First, while Nepal’s bilateral relations are progressing, New Delhi appears hesitant to fully back the UML-led government under Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. According to a senior Maoist leader, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian policymakers have shown greater engagement with the NC than with Oli, raising doubts about the coalition’s stability.

Secon, disagreements over China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could exacerbate tensions. The UML, led by Oli, is eager to finalize a BRI implementation plan to demonstrate tangible progress. However, this push might create rifts within the coalition, as the NC remains wary of BRI commitments. Oli’s cautious handling of the issue reflects these internal dynamics, providing Dahal an opportunity to capitalize on the discord.

Dahal’s recent interactions with New Delhi reveal his strategic pivot. His interview with The Hindu showcased his criticism of Oli for allegedly playing the ‘China card’, signaling Dahal’s intent to align with India’s geopolitical priorities. Over the past six to seven years, Dahal has cultivated stronger ties with New Delhi, aligning mutual interests during his premiership. Notably, his government signed a long-term energy trade deal with India, facilitating Nepal’s electricity export to Bangladesh through the Indian grid. This agreement not only bolstered Dahal’s domestic image by stabilizing the energy sector but also endeared him to New Delhi.

In contrast, Dahal refrained from signing any major agreements with Beijing, including a proposed BRI implementation plan in 2023. His reluctance to engage with China, a departure from Oli’s precedent, has likely pleased New Delhi. Furthermore, Dahal avoided contentious issues such as the Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report and Nepal’s border disputes with India, which UML leaders like Oli have persistently raised. His softer stance on these matters aligns with India’s preference to keep them off the bilateral agenda.

Dahal’s rapport with BJP leaders has also grown, allowing him to leverage India’s influence on Nepal’s political landscape. On contentious issues like secularism, Dahal has conveyed his flexibility, indicating no objection to removing secularism if major parties agree—a stance likely to resonate with the BJP’s ideological agenda.

Aware of shifting international dynamics, Oli recently acknowledged in a party meeting that external conditions may not favor his government. While the UML leadership claims improved relations with India, Dahal’s positioning suggests he might still be New Delhi’s preferred candidate for prime minister. His track record of aligning with India on strategic issues strengthens this perception.

Even if Dahal fails to secure the premiership, he appears open to supporting Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC until the elections, contingent on an electoral alliance. However, this proposal faces resistance within the NC. While Deuba’s faction fears losing to the UML without Maoist support, a significant section of the NC remains opposed to collaborating with the Maoists, citing ideological and policy differences.

Adding to the coalition’s challenges are disputes over governance issues. The NC and UML have clashed over topics such as the removal of Kul Man Ghising as the head of the Nepal Electricity Authority and the issuance of ordinances to facilitate party splits. These disagreements further expose the fragility of their partnership, creating an opening for Dahal to exploit.

Dahal’s political maneuvers reflect his ambition to return to power by navigating Nepal’s complex internal and external dynamics. By aligning with New Delhi’s strategic interests and exploiting fissures within the NC-UML coalition, he positions himself as a key player in shaping the country’s political future. However, whether he can convert these efforts into a tangible political comeback remains uncertain. The coming months will reveal if Dahal’s strategy of leveraging alliances and external support will succeed or if the Maoists will face an uphill battle to remain relevant in Nepal’s shifting political landscape.

Former Speaker Damannath Dhungana was cremated with state honors at Pashupati Aryaghat on Monday afternoon. His sons lit the funeral pyre.

Ministers, high-ranking officials of the Government of Nepal, heads of security agencies, leaders, activists, well-wishers and common people gathered at Pashupati Aryaghat to pay final tributes.

Before being brought to Pashupati Aryaghat, his body was kept at Sano Gaucharan in Gyaneshwor to pay the final tributes.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli had offered respects to former Speaker Dhungana, laying the national flag over his mortal remains there.

Deputy Prime Minister duo Prakash Man Singh and Bishnu Prasad Paudel, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak and Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba among others had reached Sano Gaucharan to pay last tributes.

A Cabinet meeting held this morning had decided to give a public holiday today to mourn the death of Dhungana and cremate with state honors.

Former Speaker Dhungana passed away at Frontline Hospital, Baneshwor on Sunday. He was 83. He had been suffering from liver-related ailment for some time.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has offered respects to former Speaker Damannath Dhungana, laying the national flag over his mortal remains.

The PM reached Sano Gaucharan in Gyaneshwar today and offered his last respect.

On the occasion, PM Oli described former Speaker Dhungana as a multi-dimensional personality with a unique identity and principles in Nepal's parliamentary practice.

"It is necessary to walk on the path the former Speaker has shown, as he was successful in leaving behind a unique influence in the nation's parliamentary practice," he said.

A meeting of the Council of Ministers convened this morning decided to cremate the former Speaker's body with state honors.

Deputy Prime Ministers and other members of the Council of Ministers have also reached Sano Gaucharan to pay their last respect to the former Speaker, who passed away at Frontline Hospital, Baneshwar. He was 83 and had been suffering from liver-related ailment for some time.

The government has decided to cremate former Speaker Damannath Dhungana with state honors.

A Cabinet meeting held at the Prime Minister's official residence, Baluwatar, this morning decided to cremate Dhungana with state honors and grant a public holiday today to mourn his demise, informed Minister for Communications and Information Technology Prithvi Subba Gurung. 

"It has been decided to declare a public holiday today in honor of former Speaker Dhungana and hoist the national flag at half-mast at all government offices at home and abroad throughout the day", Gurung said.

The Ministry of Home Affairs has been assigned the responsibility for the management of the state honor.

The meeting appreciated the role played by former Speaker Dhungana in streamlining Nepal's parliamentary system, Spokesperson Gurung said that showing self-respect to the late Dhungana's integrity and ideals would be a true tribute to him.

The meeting expressed deep sorrow over the demise of Dhungana and paid tribute and extended condolences to the aggrieved family members.

Dhungana breathed his last on November 17 (Sunday) at the age of 83 while undergoing treatment at Frontline Hospital in Baneshwor.

Human rights activist and civil society leader Dhungana had been undergoing treatment for liver-related problems for some time. He will be cremated today itself.