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The post-Cold War unipolar world has been shaken badly by the 9/11 attacks and the war on terrorism that followed achieved partial success leading to the compulsive pullout of the US forces from Afghanistan. The relationship between the US and China remained strained due to the trade war and the conflicting interests over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war does not see any prospects of settlement soon, thus Ukraine is bound to suffer and face more destruction. Strategic mistakes were made by both Russia and Ukraine, but NATO gained valuable intelligence about the Russian war capability. African countries have been facing civil wars leading to major humanitarian crises and military coups in some of these countries signal no good days on the horizon. The ever-changing geo-political dynamics of this century are thus becoming more challenging.

Asia seems relatively quiet and peaceful because many of the volatile areas and issues have been back burnered. In spite of several border skirmishes, India-China trade continues to boom. The cross-border terrorist activities in Kashmir and the long outstanding border issues of India with both China and Pakistan have led to a strained relationship between them. The existing deadlock is not likely to be resolved soon, thus making the Himalayan region a flashpoint for potential conflicts which may even push the three nuclear nations to a war.

Now, is there any possibility to avoid or at least mitigate such a scenario? The answer would be both ‘Yes’ and ‘No’. China has an all-weather good relationship with Pakistan whereas it remains only fair weather with India; and looking back to their historical enmity and existing animosity the answer most likely would be a ‘No’. However, this projection based mainly on their geopolitical and strategic perspectives may not be that accurate if the perceived notion is examined from the economic perspective. A million-dollar question thus would be—what are such possibilities?

National aspirations

India and China both have their own national aspirations. India wants to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and become a superpower over time. India qualifies for this because of her economic and technological advancement. China wants to expand its influence globally through the Bridge and Road Initiative (BRI) and become the first economic power well before the mid-21st century. This entails keeping herself safe against containment from superpowers and avoiding direct conflicts. These national aspirations could be the motivating and driving factors for both India and China to come closer. 

International financial institutions have projected that the 21st century will be the Asian century. The Chinese and Indian economies have already left the US economy behind in terms of their Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), nevertheless, the USA is still the number one in both economic and military power and will remain so for some time to come.  However, China and India are likely to supersede the US economy soon. Besides, the US economy would be affected by the de-dollarization initiative and the possible introduction of BRICS currency. Now, what happens if India and China closely cooperate and collaborate for larger economic interests and ally together for the realization of their national aspirations? If this materializes, the realization of the 21st century as the Asian century will happen earlier. India and China together will be the biggest economic and military power in the world and will be in the position to dictate global terms, thus ending the era of a unipolar world. 

Here, a hypothesis ‘the Western world would neither allow China and India to ally nor would they allow them to go to a war’, could be put to test. If they ally, they together will dominate the world and if they go to war, the possibility of a nuclear conflict cannot be denied; and both scenarios will be inconsistent with the interest of the Western power.

In the present scenario, could India ever become a permanent member of the UNSC? Will the best diplomatic and calculated strategic relationship with the USA help India realize her national aspiration? The existing defense dependency on Russian military hardware (more than 70 percent) and the relationship persisting since the Cold War period would not allow India to deviate from its basic strategic line for some time. Since Russia and China are strategically close and aligned, aligning with these two superpowers is likely to help India realize its national aspiration, which is unlikely by a piggyback from the USA. 

Therefore, the national aspirations and huge economic interest are likely to outweigh the military interest and competition, thus encouraging China and India to come closer. Through such cooperation and collaboration, the BRI gets the opportunity to access the Indian and South Asia markets which would, amongst other advantages, help China for the realization of its national aspiration.

Now a million-dollar question arises: Who would or can make this happen? Obviously, this will not happen on its own and some country or statesman has to take initiatives to facilitate the process. Here comes the possible role of Nepal and some of its acceptable statesmen who could lead a Track-II initiative. Nepal could play the role of a lynchpin between India and China. The BRI could be made a tool and the BRI passing through Nepal would bring India and China closer to materializing their national aspirations. The contentious issue between India and Pakistan would become a non-issue once China and India align; many of the outstanding and contentious issues between the three countries would fall in place through an amicable way out. The end result would be the peace that would prevail in the volatile South Asian Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya region as a whole.

In linear thinking, this proposal not only looks like wishful thinking but an absurd one. The issues are not as simple as debated above but also are not unachievable. Since most complicated issues generally have simple solutions, so could this be. The matching chemistry between the present leaderships of China and India could be an opportunity for turning this thinking into reality.

The author is Brig Gen (Retd) of Nepali Army and General Secretary of the Nepal Institute for Strategic Studies

Against the backdrop of the current global security landscape, there is an undeniable and profound transformation taking place, both intricate and far-reaching, necessitating a thorough and comprehensive examination. Amidst this complex web of challenges, it is crucial not only to understand the Wagner phenomenon within the confines of policymaking but also to extend this understanding to a broader societal context. One of the fundamental questions that arises is whether security forces should be viewed as a public good or a private good. In other words, should they be taken as entities exclusively under the control and responsibility of governments and public institutions, or can they be mobilized by private entities, at any time, and in any location? This question delves into the heart of how security is conceptualized and provided in our contemporary world, and it challenges traditional notions of state monopoly on the use of force. It requires a nuanced understanding of the changing dynamics of security provision and the implications this has for society as a whole.

A growing influence

The Wagner Group still poses a significant global security risk due to its involvement in conflicts and destabilization efforts even though the mastermind Yevgeny Prigozhin is assumed dead, with its mercenary activities often on state actors' behalf potentially exacerbating tensions. Prigozhin, a Russian business tycoon, was referred to as the founder of the Wagner Group in 2014 and is slowly claiming the title of "father of modern mercenary forces", which now probably needs no introduction after its attempted mutiny against the Russian establishment in July. Prigozhin, often known as "Putin's chef" for providing catering services to the Kremlin, holds a central role in the group's formation and operations. Under Prigozhin, the Russian-registered Private Military Company (PMC) has fought in Ukraine and won Bakhmut for Russia, and now it is in headlines for its role in Africa as Wagner is now showing its strength to secure victory for Niger's dictator Gen Abdourahamane Tchiani, who declared himself the head of a transitional government on July 28, less than 10 days after Niger's elected president Muhammad Bazoom was captured by the military.

Wagner, who is said to have ties with Russian military intelligence, has recently ignited the debate on future warfare in the ongoing Niger coup after its operations spanned conflicts in Syria, Ukraine, and parts of Africa. Wagner’s intelligence unit has managed to win over the intelligence agencies of several western nations, like France, which had deployed around 1500 troops in Niger, and the US, which has over a thousand troops across two bases. Italy kept around 300 troops, and the European Union had at least a hundred troops, and yet together these troops have somehow failed to check extremism and terrorism attacks in Niger.

Mercenaries in future wars 

Throughout history, the use of mercenaries has been a recurring strategy employed by various civilizations to augment their military prowess. From Ancient Egypt to the modern era, mercenaries have played diverse roles in conflicts and expansion. This article delves into the historical roots of employing mercenaries, explores their utilization by European colonial powers, and highlights the contemporary surge in the use of Private Military Companies (PMCs) in a global context. Wagner has given rise to the rise of future mercenaries with its success in Central African Republic (CAR) where in the heart of capital city Bangui, a statue is placed that stands as a display of support to the CAR and also since Wagner is seen jointly with local security agents for providing security to President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, at least the defensive system of few countries can be seen to be under the mercenary already.

Private militaries covert combat

Like all major warfare initiatives, the US paved the way toward the rise of modern mercenary warfare, where it had to turn to PMCs for its need to undertake its military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere to avoid the domestic backlash. This tactic of using contractors was thoroughly studied by the Kremlin, and as a result, the Russian version of the US’ most successful PMC, Blackwater, was created under the name Wagner. Although Blackwater later had to change its name to Academi after it was forced out of Iraq after a shooting incident in which 17 civilians died, Wagner, however, enjoys people’s full support wherever it goes to fight, and has always had the upper hand.

As global powers are making Africa a battlefield with the West and China employing methods to take the resources, the ground is also going on the verge of becoming a shadow battleground. This year, the Central African Republic saw the killing of several Chinese workers. China is now claiming that in the whole of Africa, their workers are often kidnapped for which they are increasing their security by deploying PMCs like DeWe Security Service, Huaxin Zhong An Security Group and China Security Technology Group. It is to be noted here that the Chinese government has direct or indirect control over the companies full of security agents with a military background, thanks to a compulsory military service in China. All this is set to make Africa a battleground.

Bhandari is assistant professor at the Department of Conflict, Peace and Development Studies, Tribhuvan University

Das is executive editor at IADN , India’s leading portal on Aerospace and Defense

“Education” the word itself is abstract, so it is hard to define. Also, its definition varies among educated persons or scholars. Thus, is it not an important query to identify it in the view of commoners like us? Is the developed countries' education valued higher than the developing ones? Isn’t education for physical comfort, mental peace, or spiritual pleasure? Bunches of perplexing questions arise in this scientific world when biologists share their sharp ideas that in the eyes of science even an atom is equal to man. 

The word “education” in English etymology, as defined in the New World Dictionary, originated from the root word of old French ‘duc’ and Latin ‘dux’ which means leader; and in this root added the prefix ‘e’ means ‘out’ and during middle English period ‘duc or dux’ changed into ‘ducere’ which means ‘to lead, draw, bring’. 

After such a formation of the word, the meaning of education is ‘to train, develop the knowledge, skill, mind or character through formal schooling, teaching and training ’. In Sanskrit root, according to Apte, ‘Siksh’ means to wish to learn, to practice, and to gain knowledge. William also writes a similar meaning in his dictionary adding that it means to offer one’s service to others as well.

Education has been defined for ages by different educators in their own way of life. For Socrates, education is the idea of universal validity taken out from the talented minds, whereas for Plato it is the capacity to feel pleasure and pain at the right time in the body and soul of a student enabling one for beauty and perfection. For Aristotle, education is the creation of a sound mind in a sound body to enable enjoyment in perfect happiness, but for Nelson Mandela, education is the most powerful weapon to bring a change in the world. 

Further, for Sarvapalli Radhakrishna education is not merely a means of earning a living, nor a nursery of thought or school for citizenship, but to train souls in pursuit of truth and practice of virtue. For a reformer from India, Swami Vivekananda, education is “the manifestation of the divine perfection, already existent in man. Hence, it is described by one’s precise definition. As in the above words, if there is no proper or standard education, any society, country, or even the whole world might deteriorate and grief can fall on the people globally. Thus, I would like to express basic standards of education that can help achieve individual or public contentment of being altruistic persons in the world.

The first norm of education to maintain the basic standard might be happiness in personal and public life. Now, in modern education, one has to individually query whether we are living happily or not. Again, happiness is abstract and is difficult to define specifically. But since we can see the worldwide people and figure out how happy they are and how much happiness they can share in the family, society, and country globally. So, happiness here might be the means to quest in education to make a person free from physical and mental pain or agony that everyone is suffering in the present.

Someone might be affluent but may not have sound health. Or both, one may be healthy or wealthy and again have no internal peace at all. Consequently, so-called educated people may start an ammunition factory to kill brothers and satiate individuals as we can see such events in this world. If the revolts take place against one another for personal gains, education may be worthless or faulty!

Secondly, education may be for creativity. Creation, being free from old grievances and acts of revenge, can be innovative for individual and social welfare. It might pave a new way and can make a person to be free from all the creeds or dogmas practiced traditionally. Modern science may be a means of spreading new genes for prevailing peace and prosperity in societies. Such creation should be for the benevolence of humanity rather than the present malevolent construction of modern technology to intimidate or upset the global people. 

Thirdly, education may be the means of responsibility. Each and everyone in proper education should be made responsible in one’s living. Modern education has to prepare each individual accountable to carry one’s own duty aptly. Each one should carry on with one’s duty by oneself without pretending or blaming others. In the family, society, or country, each member must be liable to one’s duty and carry on happily whatever it comes to his/her part. This kind of comprehension has to be realized by education in this scientific world.

Next, education should provide everyone with a peaceful living. No individual should be deprived of internal and external peace in their existence. If there is no peace, there is no healthy development. Each child from the home and student from the beginning of schooling must learn to attain peace for a better humanity. Prevailing peace can enable everyone for innovative creations that can produce all-round development in family, society, country and the world.

The requirement of education is to have cosmological living. Man is social and one must know how to work together among various skilled people. For this, a person must be accountable for having an omniscient view that from the atom to the complete universe is correlated in its existence. Having individual or authentic existence, each thing follows a specific system of combination implicitly being conjoined with the holistic system. Consequently, all walks of people should have this sort of comprehension to have prosperity, peace, and pleasure in one’s existence.

These five elements of education can be sound means to everyone in this world to exist genuinely. In my opinion, this quality education is to be taught at home by parents to children. It is obvious that renowned schools, colleges, and universities are teaching for external affluence; thus, the intuitive growth of a person must be trained at home with the help of ethics and spirituality without being biased of any caste, creed, culture, and color individually.    

Foreign policy is the principle that guides how a country uses different strategies to steer its relationship with other countries and international organizations. It is also known as an instrument that a state employs for promoting national interest and policy while dealing with the international community. It basically aims at contributing to global peace, harmony and security.  In a globalized world, every country seeks to protect national interest through its foreign policy.

The fundamental objectives of Nepal’s foreign policy are to enhance the dignity of the nation by safeguarding sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence and promoting economic well-being and prosperity of the country. Nepal has been adopting a policy of non-interference, non-violence, peaceful coexistence, mutual cooperation and respect for other countries’ sovereignty. Our foreign policy consists of strategic plans to interact with other countries, which is fundamentally used to achieve national interest. National interest should have three basic components—security, prosperity and social well-being. Some basic principles of Nepal’s foreign policy are mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, respect for mutual equality, non-aggression and peaceful settlement of disputes, cooperation for mutual benefits, faith in the chapter of the United Nation and world peace.

Nepal attempted to adjust its foreign policy after the restoration of multiparty democracy in the 1990s. Only after the advent of democracy in 1951 did Nepal’s foreign relations become robust and expanded. Before the political changes of 1951, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) was absent and Nepal’s foreign relations were very limited. 

Foreign policy is a means of statecraft that has become the most important mechanism to defend national interests in this globalized world. Nepal’s foreign policy has remained unchanged despite changes in regimes, constitutions and governments.

In the latter decades, Nepal has gone through several changes and transitions, the traditional practices have given way to new alternatives and the actions in foreign policy decision-making have substantially surged. The issue of a growing number of actors in foreign policy decision-making also calls for a serious overview. Other line ministries and government agencies have become a part of international engagement and a prominent stakeholder in foreign policy and diplomacy. In this context, the most prominent challenges are the lack of coordination among the actors involved along with the need for structures and intuitional changes.

These structural changes pose several challenges to Nepal’s foreign policy behavior. Geopolitical and geo-economic interests of Nepal have increased with the rise of India and China. These challenges and circumstances urge policymakers to induce policy coordination and structural changes to meet the new challenges. Modern foreign policy and diplomacy are experiencing fundamental changes at an unprecedented rate worldwide, affecting the traditional way of diplomacy and decision-making process. 

Nepal’s foreign engagement needs to be made more robust with policy coordination and structural changes to address the changing geopolitics and geo-economic scenario of the country. At this point in time, global power is shifting toward Asia, especially in reference to the rise of China and India. Our ties are heavily southward-oriented, especially toward India and China. So we must promote a sound relationship of trust with both of our immediate neighbors keeping the national interest at the core.

Nepal has been following the principle of non-alignment and panchasheel for a long time. But nowadays, debates among foreign policy experts are centering more and more on redefining our foreign policy. According to these experts, there is an urgent need for Nepal to review and redefine its foreign policy vis-a-vis a changing world order, balance of power and the rise of Asian powers. 

Some contemporary issues like economic diplomacy, development diplomacy, trade diplomacy, cultural diplomacy, public diplomacy and technology diplomacy deserve due priority. Proper coordination is necessary between line ministries and MoFA toward this end.