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Have you ever had a deadline approaching, but instead of completing your work, you binged on a Netflix series for hours? Did you ever resolve to patch up with a friend after an argument but ignore them instead because you thought, “why should I be the one to call first?” Did you ever want to start a personal project you were rather passionate about but could never bring yourself to begin working on it out of fear of people’s invalidation or possible judgments? In all these situations, you may experience a barrage of unpleasant emotions like frustration, panic, sadness, disappointment, hurt, anger, and regret, among others. These emotions, if unmanaged, can make things worse. So, what should we do then? Having three fundamental principles in mind can help us identify, manage, and understand our emotions. Principle #1: At any moment, we’re trying to meet universal, all-inclusive needs (for example, needs like physical safety, emotional support, respect, peace, learning, contribution, etc.). Principle #2: Our emotions hint whether those needs are met or unmet (for example, anger, disgust, joy, calmness, frustration, relief, etc.). Principle #3: Everything we do with our actions (our body) is an attempt to meet our underlying needs (for example, talking, remaining silent, eating, running, etc.). An understanding we can derive from these principles is that all actions, no matter what, or even inactions, are attempts to meet needs. Whether we fulfill those needs or not, we will know by the emotion we feel at any moment. For example, if we feel angry at ourselves for watching Netflix instead of completing work in face of an approaching deadline, we might feel frustrated or even panic-stricken. These emotions indicate that even though watching Netflix may have helped fulfill our needs for entertainment and refreshment, our needs for order, punctuality, and contribution remain unfulfilled. Most of the time, instead of addressing our feelings (especially when we experience unpleasant ones) and identifying the underlying needs behind those feelings, we either go numb or act out, which are unhealthy mechanisms to deal with our emotions. Ranjitha Jeurkar, a Bangalore-based Nonviolent Communication Trainer, explains what we can do instead, with the help of an analogy: When the lights [in your car dashboard] blink, you don’t shut off the lights. It’s a clue for you to look for something else in the car that needs your attention. For instance, if your fuel [indicator] is lit—that [tells] your tank is nearing empty, and your car needs more fuel. It’s a very similar [case] with our feelings. Instead of rushing to shut them down [especially unpleasant feelings], we can pause for a moment and try and look at what needs our feelings [tell] us about. The problem isn’t our feelings. They are indicators of something else [which] is working or not working within us [which are our needs]. When we fail to see the relationship between our needs, emotions, and actions, what we do is often contrary to what we need. Let’s consider a few examples. We need clarity when learning something new, but we remain silent when the teacher/facilitator asks if we have a question. We want people to hear and understand us, but we shout at them to convey this. We want to build confidence but choose not to speak up in team discussions. We long for connection but refrain from reaching out first. We need rest, but we end up browsing our social media feeds for two hours at bedtime. Do any of these examples resonate with you? Think of a recent time when you tried to meet one or more of your needs through a particular action. Did that action take you closer to attaining your need or away from it? Emotional Intelligence is being smarter with feelings. If we are aware of our needs, we give ourselves a better shot at meeting those needs. And a helpful way to meet those needs is to identify what those needs are. The first step toward that is to be aware of our feelings. When we react blindly to our emotional states (by trying to chase pleasant emotions and run away from unpleasant ones), we might take hurtful actions instead of helpful ones. A simple framework to make sure we are not hurting our chances of meeting our needs is to think in terms of the ABC checkpoints, which are: Avoiding: Are we avoiding taking responsibility to meet our needs? Blaming: Are we blaming ourselves or others instead of working to meet our needs? Complaining: Are we looking to justify ourselves rather than seeking a solution for our needs? Avoiding, blaming, and complaining are a few indicators of unmet needs but suboptimal strategies to meet those very needs. So, try to ask yourself often: How am I feeling? What needs are those feelings indicating? What action(s) would help? The author is the linchpin at My Emotions Matter, an education initiative that helps individuals and teams learn the mindset and skills of Emotional Intelligence. You can learn more at myemotionsmatter.com

Following a series of high-level visits by US officials, it is now time for neighboring countries to send their emissaries. Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra is set to arrive in Kathmandu on Monday on a three-day official visit. According to reports, he will hand over Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal for an official visit to India. This trip is significant since Prime Minister Dahal earlier said his first foreign trip will be to India. After Dahal became prime minister, the US initiated  a series of diplomatic visits to Nepal. Samantha Power, the head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), was in Kathmandu on February 7-8. Before her came Victoria Nuland, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. According to reports, two other high-ranking US officials are expected to make trips to Nepal in the near future. These visits demonstrate the US' policy of ''shuttle diplomacy'' in Nepal. Diplomatic visits play a crucial role in fostering positive relationships between countries and improving bilateral cooperation on various fronts. They help build a platform for political, economic and cultural exchanges, which further strengthen the ties between nations. Diplomatic visits are an essential aspect of effective international relations and can have a significant impact on the development and prosperity of countries like Nepal. Frequent visits from the US and neighboring countries demonstrate their interest in the affairs of Nepal and their willingness to work toward mutually beneficial solutions at the surface. These visits as such provide opportunities for leaders to engage in discussions on key issues, explore new areas of cooperation, and establish a better understanding of each other's perspectives. Nepal's location between two large and powerful countries, India and China, presents both opportunities and challenges for the country. On one hand, having close relations with both the countries can provide economic, political, and strategic leverage for Nepal. On the other, balancing relations between the two major powers can be a delicate task, which, if not handled carefully, can lead to negative consequences. No doubt, Nepal's foreign policy has prioritized India and China, but it is also important to maintain relations with other friendly countries and entities, such as the US and the European Union. It is notable that after Nepal’s parliament endorsed the US’ Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), the US has further intensified its activities in Nepal, under which more financial support has been committed. The evidence is Power’s announcement of $60m assistance to Nepal this past week. Leaving aside the strategic element, it underscores the US' commitment to supporting Nepal's efforts to strengthen its institutions and promote economic growth. Strategic goals are obviously pursued during such visits, which need a high level of confidence. As Nepal witnessed a dramatic power shift that kept the Nepali Congress out of power, the US may have experienced political shock, raising doubts over the commitment of the Nepali Congress-led government under Sher Bahadur Deuba. These hasty visits demonstrated Washington’s willingness to engage with the new government like its predecessor. Another reason is linked to the global ambition of the US to rule the world unilaterally, without any challenge from other power/s.  The US' Indo-Pacific Strategy is centered on containing China's rise and maintaining the regional balance of power. By engaging with Nepal, the US may hope to counterbalance China's growing influence in the region and secure its own strategic interests. But Nepal has a principled position of not allowing the use of Nepali territory against any neighbor/friendly country. All political parties and governments have taken ownership of this policy. One thing appears to be self-evident in this: Nepal is likely to experience geopolitical shocks in coming years. China is not the same as it was a decade ago. It has used "wolf-warrior diplomacy," aiming to strike at the head of any power, including the US, when it feels threatened. China's designation as a "peer rival" of America by the US authorities reflects Beijing's rising involvement in global politics and diplomacy. Therefore, Nepal must execute its principled policy of non-alignment effectively by keeping external pressures at bay. Washington's recent actions in Nepal have prompted new responses from India and China. Both nations have reached out to Prime Minister Dahal, conveying their readiness to collaborate with Nepal's new administration. India and China have taken equal steps in this regard. Against this backdrop, Indian Foreign Secretary Kwatra, who was in charge of the Nepal mission before his elevation, is visiting Nepal.  Kwatra will have extensive discussions with Nepali government officials and leaders of major parties on various issues. As Napoleon Bonaparte once said, the policy of a state lies in its geography. This maxim is relevant even today. Nepal's relations with India and China cannot be compared with any other friendly country. The dynamics of Nepal-India relations cannot even be compared with Nepal-China relations.  The Prime Minister should assure India that his government will maintain cordial relations that baseless pretexts won’t come in the way of bilateral relations. Nepal should raise genuine issues related to the border and facilitation of bilateral trade and economic cooperation.  A high-level visit from China is sure to take place in the coming months and the Prime Minister will be invited to visit the northern neighbor. With China also, Nepal should articulate its priorities and try to address the genuine issues of China.  

In the midst of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in May 2022, Sweden and Finland formally wrote to NATO seeking the defense-security alliance’s membership. Against the backdrop of a precarious situation in Europe resulting from the Russia-Ukraine War, 28 out of 30 NATO member-states welcomed Finland and Sweden with open arms. However, Turkey and Hungary (Hungary's ratification, considered just a formality, is expected shortly) put a stop to Swedish and Finnish attempts to join the bloc by refusing to ratify the latter’s bids. This means NATO's article 5 (one for all—an attack on a member-state is an attack on all member-states) won't be activated (unless Turkey and Hungary ratify the membership bids) even if unforeseen events affect these two nations, posing major dangers to the European security architecture. Turkish objection After Turkish objection to the ratification process, Sweden, Finland, and Turkey worked out a Trilateral Memorandum in June 2022, part of which states: 1. Sweden and Finland shouldn't support groups like YPG, PYD, and FETO 2. Sweden and Finland should lift their arms embargo against Turkey 3. All future exports of weapons to Turkey must comply with Article 3 of the Washington Treaty. 4. Terror suspects from Sweden and Finland should be extradited to Turkey in the numbers of 21 and 12, respectively. Turkey claims that none of these people have been extradited despite five years of requests. In accordance with the memorandum's initial terms and conditions, Sweden passed the Terror Offenses Act, allowing the prosecution of anyone associated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). A few days after the agreement, Sweden's center-left government restricted the freedom of associations with the PKK. While Turkish President Erdogan praised these actions, Sweden relaxed its ban on the sale of weapons to Turkey in November 2022. Turkey also sought the extradition of top FETO members, but the Swedish Supreme Court rejected the government's plea for the extradition of a Turkish journalist pointing that he would face prosecution at home. The court pointed out that this violation of political nature had broken no Swedish law, so there should be no extradition. The results of a survey showed 79 percent of Swedish respondents agreeing that the government should uphold the legislation even if it means delays in acquiring NATO membership. While main Turkish concerns with Sweden are over the Kurds, Finland said it would wait for redressal of Turkish-Swedish concerns before joining them. Turkey believes that more than 100,000 Kurds residing in Sweden are affiliated with the PKK, which Turkey, the EU, and the US consider to be a terrorist outfit. According to the most recent accord, Sweden has to extradite 130 persons associated with the outfit, though only one has been extradited thus far. Sweden and Finland have also expressed concerns about a Security Zone that Turkey plans to establish in northern Syria. According to the Middle East Council, Turkey views the People’s Protection Unit (YPG), the Syrian affiliate of the PKK based in Turkey, as a terrorist group whereas the US backs the YPG, describing it as the most successful force fighting ISIS on the ground. This has strained bilateral ties. Turkey has been lobbying for an end to American financial and military support for the YPG. The country is also looking to bargain with the US for securing advanced aircraft by raising Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership issues. Turkey’s gameplan Turkey is acting as an intermediary in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, embracing sanctioned Russian oligarchs as tourists and investors as long as their commercial operations comply with international laws. Both Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu endorsed this interpretation. At a time when both Russia and Turkey are trying to survive financially, Turkey is in desperate need for investment, and such a resource is life-saving. Russia and Ukraine both conduct their international navigation through Turkey, which connects the Bosporus Strait to the Sea of Marmara, Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea via the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The Bosporus Strait will be challenging for Russia to cross if Turkey closes it, whose rights have been safeguarded by the Montreux Convention. This allows Turkey to close the strait to all foreign warships if it feels threatened. Second, as the Baltic Sea is the principal route for Saint Petersburg navigation, Finland and Sweden joining NATO will present problems for Russian export-import business. This is because both Sweden and Finland have a sphere of influence in the Baltic sea due to coastal lines. According to expert opinion, Turkey will most likely accept the membership demands after the Turkish elections in May-June 2023. If done earlier, it must answer pointed questions from the opposition political parties in the parliament, which may hamper Erdogan’s electoral performance. Critics say Erdogan is doing it to divert public attention from the country’s economic underperformance. One of the Turkish ambassadors, Sinan Ulgen, has stated that “Erdogan wants to foster his image as someone, who is devoted to advancing Turkey's interest and forceful in international discussions." Turkey is actually employing a dual strategy to secure its interests. On one hand, it is making the West provide advanced fighter planes in acknowledgement of its crucial role in the Syrian conflict. The Turkish leadership has personalized relations with Putin, enabling Russian oligarchs to park their money in Turkey and helping with its development. Turkey thinks accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO is pivotal for all NATO member-states and playing rightly on this could deliver it juice from the fruit. In realpolitik, all parties try every bit to advance their interests. But authorities should think of innocent Finns and Swedish civilians living under the specter of war. Concerns for Nepal Nepal’s strategic autonomy in setting its foreign and defense policies matters a lot because of her two immediate giant neighbors. Nepal has shown chronic symptoms of falling under the radar of both New Delhi and Beijing while setting its priorities, a situation similar to Finlandization (Though a Cold War concept, it is relevant even today). In a positive sense, such a radar effect helps Nepal as a bilateral partner in development and stability whereas in a realistic sense, this might create multiple complexities.  Growing distrust between our northern and southern neighbors in the case of Nepal’s flagship projects is affecting Nepal’s national development. If this continues, every development project in Nepal may suffer from our mismanagement internally and geopolitical complexities externally, like in the case of Pokhara International Airport and Gautam Buddha International Airport (built with the Chinese Exim Bank loan and by the Chinese contractor). In such a scenario, Nepal’s national development can become a matter of bargain for both neighbors. But there’s no one-liner solution to this problem. For resolution of this problem, Nepal’s political leadersehip should opt for continued negotiations with the neighbors.

The World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook 2023 report forecasts global economic growth of just 1.7 percent, marking the third slowest pace of growth in the last 30 years. The previous two instances of weak growth were in 2009, following the US housing market crash, and in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. The world economy is currently experiencing its second consecutive year of significant slowdown, and economists anticipate a difficult future, with challenges such as high inflation, protectionist trade policies, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, energy shortages, and the negative effects of climate change looming. The world economy is in a precarious state, one major economic shock away from falling into a recession. According to the World Bank, small nations are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on external trade and financing, lack of diversification, high levels of debt and susceptibility to natural disasters. Investment growth in emerging markets and developing economies is expected to remain below the average rate of the past two decades. Countries in South Asia will not be immune to this trend and will likely be affected by the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine war, rising global interest rates, weakening growth in key trading partners and uncertainty surrounding Covid-19 policies in China, which accounts for approximately 18 percent of the world economy. However, the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economist Outlook presented at the Annual Meeting in January 2023 predicts a lower likelihood of stagflation in South Asia compared to the rest of the world, but amidst the current global economic crisis, this does not guarantee a secure and stable path forward for individual countries. The growth forecast for 2023-2024 in Nepal is 4.9 percent, which was estimated to be 5.8 percent in 2021-22 and projected to be 5.1 percent in 2022-23. The decline in growth is evident from the data, and the overall outlook for the country’s economy is not particularly positive. The Nepal Rastra Bank has always advocated policies and measures to guide the economy on a better path, but this has been difficult to achieve due to the political climate and alleged crony capitalism. Individual interests are prioritized over the overall welfare and needs of citizens. Although Nepal is a federal republic, it is closer to being an authoritarian regime, as per The Economist's Democracy Index 2021, which rated Nepal 4.4, anything below 4 is considered authoritarian. This speaks volumes about how Nepal functions as a state. In an effort to improve the current account, balance of payments, trade deficit and foreign currency reserves, the NRB scrutinized imports, and was successful. However, government revenue suffered as a result, with the then PM acknowledging difficulties in even paying salaries of government staff. This interplay between imports and government revenue is taking a heavy toll on the economy, and it will continue unless sustainable measures are taken. Remittance plays a crucial role in the GDP of the country and injecting money into the market. It accounts for around 22 percent of the GDP, highlighting the high dependency of the economy on it. A large proportion of remittance comes from countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Malaysia. However, the World Bank has forecasted lower economic growth for these countries as well. The decreasing growth in these countries will have an impact on the economy, aggregate demand, businesses, and job market. Seventy-eight percent of the economists at The World Economic Forum's Annual meeting estimate that companies around the world will cut costs by laying off workers. This will affect Nepali workers abroad, potentially resulting in a decrease in inward remittances and a negative impact on the domestic economy. Inflation is expected to rise globally due to factors such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, OPEC’s decision to reduce (oil) production, economic struggles among major powers, and the interconnected global trade economy. Nepal’s CPI-based inflation could also increase, and the NRB may use interest rates to try to curb it. Businesses may be affected this year as well, and financial institutions may struggle to recover and have high non-performing assets (NPAs) if appropriate measures are not taken in time. However, if private sector financial institutions prioritize the overall health of the economy over excessive profit, it could provide a significant buffer for businesses and the economy, which is unlikely to happen. An article published by IIDS Nepal states how the credit size of the BFIs has become as big as the GDP of the country. If this growth rate is to continue, the loan disbursed to the private sector is estimated to become twice the size of the GDP of the country within 11 years. The heavy dependence on credit puts both financial institutions and the economy at a high risk. Additionally, the oversight of loans and the promotion of investment in productive industries must be greatly improved. The uncontrolled growth of the real estate industry, driven by the pursuit of high returns, could prove problematic for the country in the long run. Many cooperatives are facing difficulties due to investments in land and this is just the tip of the iceberg. NRB implemented a strict policy on working capital to promote investment in productive industries, prevent loan misuse and combat tax fraud. However, this policy faced resistance from stakeholders, leading to its revision, which led to a more lenient approach. To improve the overall economic situation, it is important for national interest to be prioritized over individual gains. It is essential for this coalition government, new ministers in particular,  to be aware of the gravity of the situation and make well-informed decisions. They should avoid making hasty decisions for the sake of popularity. In difficult times like these, well-evaluated decision-making is crucial to improve the economy. Progressive decision-makers, who prioritize the welfare of the state, possess strong governance skills, make unbiased decisions and effectively coordinate with organizations like the NRB are needed, rather than those who make decisions solely for popularity. Investment in productive sectors and fostering domestic entrepreneurship is necessary to decrease heavy reliance on imports. Developing entrepreneurship will have a significant impact on the balance of payments and trade balance in the long run. Tourism and agriculture are sectors that have a huge potential for Nepal. Investment must be made in these areas and policies to promote these sectors implemented. Different governments have frequently proposed a one-window solution for foreign direct investment (FDI) but have not been able to implement it. FDI commitments are not being realized due to bureaucratic obstacles in the system. Improving the education system should be a priority. In the period of Jan-June 2022, the government issued 82,000 NOCs (No Objection Certificates) for students seeking to study abroad. A large amount of money is spent on higher education abroad. Stopping brain drain and providing quality education for the young population, where the median age is 24 years, is crucial for Nepal’s future. The current global political, economic and trade climate as well as the state of the country highlight that the economy is in a precarious position. Preparations for difficult times are necessary. Every government decision should be made with caution. This can be challenging, especially with a coalition government composed of polarized ideologies, but it is still possible to achieve. Economic growth of remittance source states