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The Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) will soon elect its new senior vice-president (who is president elect by default) through its 54^th general assembly. The private sector’s apex body has been struggling to establish itself as a professional corporate entity due to a perpetual shortage of capable leadership. The leaders the FNCCI has gotten over the past two decades have been more oriented towards pleasing their political masters than in establishing high standards of corporate governance.

Rather than speaking the industry’s voice, the FNCCI is consumed with fulfilling the interests of its leadership. For instance, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), India’s private sector’s umbrella agency, has ‘Industry’s voice for policy change’ as its motto. The FNCCI lacks any such guiding principle. 

The federation has seen little growth in the past three decades since the opening up of the economy and reforms in 1990. Since its establishment in 1966, up until 1990, was the time for the organization’s institutional development. Yet, even after 1990, the FNCCI has had little to show for it. Its past presidents like Mahesh Lal Pradhan, Padma Jyoti, and Binod Chaudhari gave the institution some shape. But recent leaders such as Kush Kumar Joshi, Pashupati Murarka, Suraj Vaidya, and Bhawani Rana have done next to nothing to strengthen the capacity of the private sector and empower domestic investors. 

The FNCCI leadership has instead used the organization to curry favors from those in power. Suraj Vaidya became the coordinator of the Visit Nepal 2020 campaign, no sooner than he had completed his tenure as the FNCCI president. Likewise, Kush Kumar Joshi was able to get the ‘Kathmandu-Hetauda Tunnel Highway’ project immediately after the end of his term. In both cases, there was simply no match between the person’s expertise and the projects they later received.  

The FNCCI could have, over the years, pushed political leaders to adopt the right set of policies that favor industrial development in order to achieve higher growth and to create jobs. Yet the focus of the FNCCI, which has a nationwide network through its district-level units, has been on lobbying for higher margins in foreign trading business of its leadership, thereby eroding the private sector’s credibility. “The FNCCI has failed the country by limiting itself to being a lobby group, while the expectation was that it would contribute to industrial development and economic growth,” shares Pushpa Raj Acharya, former president of the Society of Economic Journalist-Nepal. “The golden opportunity for creative transformation of the private sector has been wasted in the past three decades,” he adds.

The 54^th general assembly was scheduled for March 2020, but was postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic-induced lockdown. It has now been postponed again, due to internal disagreements within the FNCCI. Whenever the general assembly happens, all those contending for new FNCCI leadership positions have already shown enough evidence of groupism and vested interests. In other words, we cannot expect much from whoever leads it next.   

Raghuram Rajan, an economist and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, points to three pillars of national development: state, market, and community. He argues that if the market colludes with the state then the community fails, causing people to suffer. This is exactly what is happening in Nepal.

Looks like the private sector will have to wait a long time before it gets capable and visionary leaders. 

As the federal government mulls yet another nationwide lockdown, let us take a moment to reflect on those who have suffered the most from the previous complete or partial lockdowns: not the big business owners, not their employees, or most people who enjoyed their chats and walk during the lockdown.

Those most affected are citizens who were suffering from the vicious consequences of pervasive and structural inequalities even before the lockdown: daily wagers who are the backbone of the national economy, even if their contributions are not officially counted.

Amid repetitive warnings from the World Health Organizations that the fight against this virus is far from over, including strong admonitions that a second waves of infections are probably just few months away, it is worth noting that Nepal has not even reached the peak of the outbreak. The worst is yet to come.

In this increasingly complex scenario, the decision makers have a tough choice: should they keep the economy open, give more respite to ailing workers and enterprises or should they considering enforcing a strict lockdown again? The stakes could not be higher: either let people risk their lives with a disease that is hard to tackle or allow many others to suffer from the lockdown’s economic impact. Perhaps it could be helpful to reformulate this dilemma from a vulnerability perspective.

Should policymakers allow the most vulnerable segments of the population to die from the pandemic? Or should their lives be jeopardized by getting them back to work in order to revive the beleaguered economy?

The way we answer these two questions is important. How many people working in the formal economy will literally lose their jobs if the work and movement restrictions are re-imposed? How many businesses could sacrifice some of their income and yet survive with a different business model that leverages on line, smart work? What can the State do to soften the hard impact on these corporations? How much fiscal space is there for the government in this emergency? Can resources otherwise allocated be diverted to corona-control? What can big donors do in such a situation?

A country like Sweden that took a very liberal approach to the lockdown paid a high price. Singapore, after enforcing a so called “circuit breaker” lockdown, a necessity after haphazardly easing up restrictions, is now back on business despite suffering a high daily per capita infections. The secret to this approach is to impose very strong regulations, expecting the citizens to strictly follow them out of a sense of civic responsibility.

Qatar, quite impacted in terms of number of persons infected in relation to its overall population, imposed draconian rules.

In addition all these countries have the resources and the knowhow of an efficient health system that is capable of dealing with severe outbreaks. Yet the leaders there are aware that even their best hospitals may not cope well in case of severe community outbreaks.  

Can Nepal follow suit and enforce a strong compliance system? Can the government mobilize private hospitals in case infections rise further? Are the private hospitals ready for that?

Many are going to lose something or the other in these circumstances. A progressive and far-sighted government should decide who is going to lose the most: those who are vulnerable and marginalized or the better off, including the roaring middle class?

While the latter deserve special consideration in terms of economic relief in the form of stimulus packages, the former are those at most risk no matter what the government decides.

Galimberti is the Co-Founder of ENGAGE, an NGO partnering with youths to promote social inclusion in Nepal. He can be reached at [email protected]

One of the many unintended consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic is the rekindling of people’s faith in religion. It is no surprise though, as we have witnessed resurgence of religions during times of uncertainty throughout history. Moreover, modernity has not lessened the salience of religion. In fact, it has heightened it. Around the world, more and more people are leaving their ancestral lands and heading to cities in search of better opportunities. In doing so, they leave behind their joint families and strong social ties. Even as they are bereft of their social support, the consumerist and individualistic urban lifestyles heighten their sense of alienation. In these hard times, they can find great solace in invoking god. Yet, the inexorable march of urbanization does not stop. 

Officially, as of 2018, around 80 percent of Nepal’s population was rural, down from nearly 97 percent in 1960. The actual percentage of urban population in Nepal could be even higher when considering the effects of seasonal migration. In India, over 30 percent of its citizens now live in cities. In China, around 60 percent do. This has not been missed by politicians, who would like to cash in on this often alienating experience of modernization and urbanization. 

The BJP in India (80 percent Hindu) has openly and successfully pandered to its fast-urbanizing Hindu population. Political parties in Nepal (over 80 percent Hindu) also can’t ignore their Hindu vote bank. The pro-Hindu RPP Nepal emerged as the fourth biggest party from the second Constituent Assembly elections in 2013, with its greatest support reported in the Kathmandu Valley. Had Kamal Thapa not so badly compromised on his Hindu agenda when in power, a big section of the population could still be backing him. Top leaders of the NCP and the NC know this. 

Donald Trump, a serial philanderer and liar, was elected and sworn in by the Bible in 2016. He understands the continued importance of being pictured as a pious Christian once a while. From India to Indonesia, Brazil to Burma, religious politics are making a comeback. Nepal is now a constitutionally ‘secular’ state. But as the country was declared secular almost overnight, with little debate about what it entailed, most Nepalis still don’t know what to make of it. They also see how the ‘irreligious’ communist government, the strongest democratic government Nepal has ever had, is failing the country. 

Because of this, it may also be the perfect time for the revival of religious politics. For whenever there is a big natural disaster, the number of faithful increases. Apparently, most of the devout, whatever their religion, believe these natural phenomena are the result of people abandoning their faith—and not of god abandoning them. There have been countless tales of how people’s loss of fear in gods had contributed to the 2015 Nepal earthquakes. Now, many well-educated Nepalis are visiting temples to ward off Covid-19. 

These are the same folks who never tire of saying that if there is a referendum on religion, Nepal would be declared a Hindu state by a landslide. Even Karl Marx (‘Religion is the opium of the masses’) acknowledged how religion provided succor to those going through hard times. 

People want to belong and for their lives to be meaningful. But urbanization and modernization are pushing them into a seemingly soulless, anonymous existence. The Covid-19 crisis is exacerbating this trend. Expect religious politics to make a roaring comeback in its aftermath. 

Those invested in the political system in Nepal are either living in a state of denial or day-dreaming, and that includes the pro-democracy intelligentsia. It should not take much deliberation to conclude that Nepal is a failed state, infected with political decadence beyond correction, characterized by kleptocracy and mafia-rule.

What is on display in Nepal today, in front of one of the youngest populations in the world, is not just befuddling stupidity. It’s a relentless interplay of criminal intents among the political forces. Polity has lost its ground of ideals and discarded all pretense of justice. It’s rather entangled in a naked power-play.

This era of technological shift has unforgivingly un-flattened the world in favor of the nations ruled by adept and collaborative leaders. It has rewarded societies led with well thought out strategy. And leaders with hardcore dedication to commit to the ideals, in the midst of a global crisis that has shattered power structures, have emerged as heroes.

Unfortunately, none of this is true in Nepal. What is worse, we have a concoction of criminal intent and a feudal hunger for power in most of the leaders at the helm.

We have wasted 30 years of democracy driven by the political parties that came as a replacement of the Panchayati democracy. With the king ousted, there is no one to be blamed. Therefore, the slow disappearance of hope is not just disheartening, it’s utterly confusing for the youth and has become a serious threat for democracy itself.

Is there hope for change? Is there a way out of this crisis? What will lead us out—a change to Presidential system, a new political party emerging as an alternative, or the present parties correcting themselves to be better version of themselves?

There is no indicator of any of these happening soon.

As the ruling party, led by KP Sharma Oli, and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, is in the middle of a fierce power struggle, the whole country is forced to watch in angst. The power of a near two-thirds majority is almost wasted. What could have been an opportunity to fortify growth through policy reforms and game changing infrastructure development, has been turned into an era of senseless stalemate. Half the government’s term has passed, and we are not even sure the parliament will complete its tenure.

Self-survival has become the only issue that the government is worried about. And the challengers are from the ruling party itself.

But how about the alternatives? The picture is gloomy everywhere.

The Nepali Congress, in the role of opposition, has utterly failed. And now, it also seems to be engulfed in a power struggle of its own, with the party convention planned at the end of this year. Recently, an ex-Mahamantri was expelled from the party for five years. Sher Bahadur Deuba, the current party president, has taken initiatives to fortify his hold over the party.

The Koiralas, who have been in charge of the party for 49 years since BP Koirala founded it 79 years ago, are trying to get the hold back. Shashank Koirala (BP’s youngest son) will probably claim the leadership.

More than half of Nepal’s population is under 25, and in the next election in less than three years more than 20 percent of voters will be new. That is a huge chunk of the electorate, and because they will all be young they will look for fresh, youthful leaders. This is where the NC disappoints as an alternative. Gagan Thapa, the charismatic leader of a new generation, hasn't shown a clear indication of staking leadership.

This is the gloomy state of affairs. And there seems to be no plausible best-case scenario out if this muddle. And there appears no end to the instability; in last 70 years, we have seen a change of government 42 times.

Will there be a rise of an alternative political force that can downsize the present political parties? Will we have a real stability anytime soon? The answer seems to be a ‘No’ on both counts. At least not without a revolution.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. When the polity indulges in dark self-serving pursuits, and the people have lost all hope from the system, political revolutions are the only option left. Will Nepali youth rise to the challenge that time has imposed on them?