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The world seems to have entered a new crisis after the start of the Russian military action on Ukraine on 24 February 2022. While Russia has pushed itself in the war, the US-led NATO countries are fighting a proxy war.

The economy is a complex phenomenon, and thus linking it solely to one of the many wars and separating it from other natural and manmade events is difficult if not impossible. Yet I try.

The most obvious impact of the war can be seen in the hikes of fuel prices around the globe.

Ukraine has suffered the most. Once a strong oil, coal and natural gas producer, drilling wells and even nuclear facilities, Ukraine is under intense stress. Much of its capacity to operate and produce oil and gas has been lost. Despite a synchronization of the Ukraine and Moldova grids connecting Ukraine to the Continental European Grid, Ukraine faces electricity shortages as its nuclear facilities, hydro-power generation and a network of thermal plants can be attacked.

The EU heavily relies on Russia for energy. A 10-point EU plan envisions reducing its reliance on Russian energy by at least two-thirds. This would entail finding replacements for an average of 55 million cubic meters of gas a day.

The US has been trying to find a balance point that curtails the Russian economy but does not lead to a recession. The US supply covers over 50 percent of the EU’s and the UK’s additional LNG demand, and 37 percent of all LNG supplies into Europe. However, the US efforts, including the release of fuel from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, have been unsuccessful. Also, the US and the UK have largely failed in getting additional oil from the OPEC countries.

Meanwhile, China and India have put their national interests first and have been buying Russian oil at cheaper rates. Under a new supply-deal, Russia will increase volumes by up to 10 billion cubic meters per annum from the Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East. Russian supply to China will exceed 48 billion cubic meter per year from 2025. India has looked to Russian oil as the latter began offering steep discounts of $35 a barrel—provided India does not cancel the existing 15 million barrels deal.

India, Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam are the largest importers of Russian fuel, all of whom import gas from the Sakhalin-2 and Yamal LNG pipelines. Having joined the sanctions, Japan is forced to seek alternatives from Australia, the US and regional supplies across Asia.

Russia’s position as a leading natural gas supplier to Europe and beyond had checked the proliferation of conflict on the European continent for two decades, to the benefit of all parties. But this time, the US-led opponents seem more tilted to prolong the conflict.

Russia and Ukraine are vital for the world’s food supply, and conflict between these two producers of basic staples has knock-on effects well beyond the front lines. Ukraine has been a major exporter of wheat, corn, barley and cooking oil in the three decades since the end of the Cold War. The former “breadbasket” of the Soviet Union, Ukraine had become a major source of sustenance for many other parts of the world. The war has cut deeply into both Ukraine’s production and its ability to export.

Supplies to the world from Russia, meanwhile, are being affected by both the international sanctions imposed on Moscow as well as by the war’s disruption of shipping routes.

Many countries face a supply crisis. Egypt and Lebanon rely on Ukraine and Russia for more than two-thirds of their wheat imports. In Thailand, close to a third of wheat imports come from Ukraine and Russia. Two-thirds of sunflower oil imports to Malaysia are also from Russia and Ukraine.

Food prices are rising fast. A World Bank index that tracks the cost of food is more than 80 percent higher compared to two years ago. Food prices are predicted to rise by 20 percent this year.

Directly affected poor countries cannot support small farmers in planting crops, which in turn could fill the gaps in the global system. They also cannot support the social safety nets to ensure access to food.

Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq and Somalia are highly reliant on Ukraine for food. The drought-hit countries in the Horn of Africa have experienced follow-on impacts, as they are missing grain from Ukraine, affecting countries such as Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda and particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo. Innocent Africans also have to bear the harms of climate change—food insecurity. Follow-on effects also hit Central America and South America.

Similarly, fertilizer supply has been disturbed. Farmers are not getting fertilizer in the planting season. India first increased its release of commodities into the global system. But as their harvests dropped, it began to prioritize its own food security.

WFP used to purchase half of its food from Ukraine. Buying in the global market costs 50 to 75 percent higher, reducing the number of people WFP can feed. If proper actions are not taken, as many as 100 to 150m more people are expected to go acutely hungry within a year.

Sri Lanka's economic collapse exemplifies how poorer countries are paying the price of Western sanctions on Russia. Sri Lanka is facing its worst financial crisis since its 1948 independence as it is unable to pay for basic imports and is crippled by domestic shortages of fuel, food and medicine.

The global economy is interlinked. Some parts of the world and some segments of population are more vulnerable. As the war prolongs and expands, all countries and peoples will be dragged into the conflict, and all will face economic crisis. Skyrocketing fuel and food prices have invited violent demonstrations in different parts of the world. Perhaps Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe rightly says “…by the end of the year, you could see the impact in other countries”.

Nepal has seen unprecedented hikes in the prices of edible oils, petroleum, food grains, cereals, electrical and electronic appliances. The increase in transport costs has led to inflation. Interest rates have been increasing. Nepali rupee is depreciating against the US dollar. Set aside political issues for the moment; Nepal is trying to avoid a possible economic crisis.

Elderly groups have historically played a significant role in society, acting as stewards, role models, and carers. They are, however, also incredibly weak, and many find themselves in precarious situations, experience impairments, or face prejudice. The number of old folks is growing with the improvement in medical technology. Both their needs and their services to the world are growing too. Young people have preconceptions about seniors, notably in the form of stereotyped behaviors and ageism, which can eventually lead to the mistreatment and demoralization of the elderly.

The challenges that the elderly face nowadays are more serious. The UN held a World Assembly on Aging in 1985. The goal was to raise awareness of the issue among member countries. Since these concerns have assumed considerable proportions, it is likely that intellectuals in western nations are now aware of the challenges that the elderly confront. These thinkers have made other countries more aware of this issue. Considering that many people are concerned about getting older in the fast-changing Nepali society, this problem is particularly pressing.

The spread of western cultures and lifestyles in Nepal has compelled the society to change and adapt to its multiethnic, multicultural, and composite civilization. Old-fashioned sociocultural practices are no longer a problem in the communities. All facets of social life, such as social values, ways of living, traditions, and usages, are changing. The cornerstone of our civilization, spirituality, has been undermined by modern comforts and materialistic development.

Due to their poor standing in the community and society, the elderly may endure material as well as psychological desolation on a personal level. The sadness might be made worse by other influencing factors, including the loss of one’s spouse, close friend, or other lifelong companions. This would result in the person’s bodily decline as well as the loss of the social connections to which they had become used, and the isolation would probably cause morbidity and dissatisfaction. Unable to escape the gloom, they feel empty and lost. One such possibility is the fear of dying soon. These factors might all combine to cause excruciating agony that makes their life miserable. It follows that individuals with such regimented thought patterns have a mental illness, and efforts should be made to solve this societal issue.

The Behavioral Attitudes Towards Aging Scale (BATAS) and the Fraboni Scale of Ageism have long been employed to measure attitudes toward senior citizens. Depending on how frequently they interacted with elders and where they lived, medical students’ opinions on ageism and older people were varied. The measures’ psychometric properties are also investigated in relation to their use in a developing country like Nepal. The study suggests the need for measures that are appropriate in the Nepali context and sensitive to cultural variations.

There are, however, a few suggestions that may be taken into account to enhance the lives of seniors. The pension schemes must take the poor into account. The social workers ought to perform fieldwork and can participate in running the program. Considering that only five or six percent of the population is over 60, many of them are distributed over the wide countryside, where families and the local community continue to sustain the long-standing tradition of looking after the elderly. This has aided in the concealment of reality. Last but not least, NGOs should get all the support they can get if they wish to help Nepal overcome the challenges brought on by its aging population.

To sum up, in a low-income economy like ours, the majority of people in rural areas have limited chance to save or invest in old-age support, unlike in industrialized countries and even in our country’s cities. To achieve this, it is now even more important to work on minimizing parents’ reliance on their sons for retirement security.

The author is a student and aspiring entrepreneur

During an internal learning session, a team member who I supervise gave me a piece of feedback. She said, “You get anxious and restless rather easily.” I was taken back because the feedback didn’t align with the kind of identity I have been trying to build for myself. “Really? Anxious? Me?” “Am I restless? Since when?” These kinds of thoughts started popping up into my head. 

If I still had my older perception of seeing feedback as a means of attack, my team member’s words would have hit harder. It wasn’t until long ago that I found it hard to take feedback as I considered it synonymous with criticism, which I didn’t know how to process constructively. 

After much learning, unlearning, and suffering inside my head, I realized that receiving feedback isn’t as bad. If anything, well-meaning feedback saves us from the disasters we invite upon ourselves by giving into patterns that don’t serve us, knowingly (because of our ego) or unknowingly (because of our blind spots). This is something Ray Dalio, the author of the book ‘Principles,’ emphasizes. When our ego gets in the way of understanding what someone is trying to tell us, it’s a good indicator that we are ‘unwilling’ to admit to and work on our unhelpful patterns. 

Ego barrier is difficult to overcome because we see feedback as a direct threat to our identity. If someone gives us feedback, we’re likely to think, “Who do they think they are?” “I know what I’m doing. I don’t need anybody’s suggestions.” “I’m doing the best I can. She needs to change herself, not me.” “How dare they say that!” These thoughts can be louder and more coercive, especially when managers, leaders and supervisors get feedback from the direct reports.

I remember an instance when my team turned in a task after the deadline had passed. As I was discussing with them about what went wrong and how I as a supervisor could have helped them, one of the team members said, “As much as we should have been quicker, I suppose check-ins from you would have helped.” Before I could even process the feedback well, I had an immediate defensive thought, “Oh, so you mean, this delay has happened because of me? I’m the one responsible?” 

But I caught myself immediately and realized that I had a part to play in the delay as well. As much as they were responsible for the task, so was I. Eventually, we discussed ways in which we could keep track of such tasks and prevent delays. This wouldn’t have been possible had I let my ego get in the way. 

When it comes to the blind spot barrier, we may be ‘unable’ to even see that we’re giving into unhelpful patterns, let alone work on them. When my team member pointed out that I get anxious and restless rather easily, it seemed unusual to me. But, instead of taking it as a criticism or a threat to my identity, I asked her the context or situation in which it was true. She then helped me realize that whenever I co-facilitate the Emotional Intelligence course classes with her for high school students and the students don’t participate as I expect, it affects me.

I for sure knew I got disappointed when students didn’t participate or made noise, but I wasn’t aware that it came across as anxiety and restlessness to others. This small piece of feedback helped me manage my disappointment by incorporating changes in activities that allowed more participation, checking in with my colleague about the class progress before, during, and after the sessions, and most importantly, working on managing my own expectations.

As leaders, managers, and supervisors, we need feedback to grow and help our team grow. That feedback is available to us only if we can acknowledge that we have blind spots and ego barriers getting in the way of valuable feedback.

The author is the Linchpin at My Emotions Matter, an education initiative that helps individuals and teams learn the mindset and skills of Emotional Intelligence. Learn more at myemotionsmatter.com

In a major boost to India-Maldives relations under the ‘neighborhood first’ policy, India hosted Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih in the first week of August. President Solih led a high-level business and political delegation to discuss a range of bilateral and global issues with India. This was President Solih’s third visit to India after assuming office in October 2018 and the first post-pandemic.

The visit happened amid an internal crisis in the Solih-led Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) coalition government and difficulties for the island country in grappling with development projects, with low volumes of foreign direct investment and tourists. Since the assassination attempt on Mohamed Nasheed (May 2021), his supporters, and Nasheed himself, have been speaking openly against Solih. He is also opposed to Solih’s candidature in the 2023 presidential elections and has accused him of pandering to Islamist hardliners. Interestingly, in the 2022 MDP party chairmanship elections, Solih’s candidate won over Nasheed.

Given the comprehensive partnership with the Maldives, India gave the visit high priority. The two sides discussed a wide range of bilateral and regional issues including investment, trade, human-resource development, infrastructure, cooperation in multilateral forums, defense, security, and strategic cooperation. As this was the first high-level visit after a two-year gap, the MEA felt it could “advance the exemplary ties of friendship” between the two countries. President Solih met Indian President Droupadi Murmu and had one-on-one as well as delegation level talks with PM Modi. He had a separate meeting with External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar.

Ever since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1965, the ties have been characterized by mutual trust, understanding and maturity.  The relationship is free from any major controversy. The one-time claim of the Maldives to Minicoy Island was resolved by the Maritime Boundary Treaty of 1976. Despite many asymmetries, the two countries depend on each other and acknowledge each other as equal partners in their collective endeavor for economic growth, consolidation of democracy, and regional peace. 

The two sets of leaders feel that India’s ‘neighborhood first’ and Maldives’ ‘India first’ policies are complementary. This was reiterated during this visit too. Moreover, the importance of India’s strategic role in that part of the Indian Ocean has been well-recognized by the Maldives given India’s geographical advantage in the region. India is seen as a net security provider to the Maldives both in conventional and non-conventional senses. India was the first to assist the Maldives during the 2004 Tsunami as well as during Male’s water crisis in December 2014.

There are several institutional arrangements between the two countries in areas like hydrographic survey, trade, economic, defense, development cooperation, tourism, disaster management, education, and capacity-building. India was a key trading partner of the Maldives with over $300 in trade in 2021. India was also the fifth largest source of tourists in the Maldives with around 6.1 percent (90,474) market-share before the Covid-19 restrictions. Apart from annual aid and technical assistance, in December 2018, India announced a $1.4 billion financial package in the form of budgetary support, currency swap, and a concessional line of credit to manage the rising external debt created during the presidency of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom (November 2013- 2018).

Defense and security cooperation is an important aspect of bilateral relationship. India has a wide range of security arrangements with the Maldives including joint maritime security cooperation, SAAGAR, counter-terrorism and capacity building of the Maldivian defence forces.  During this visit, the two PMs acknowledged that the ‘security of India and the Maldives are interlinked’, further strengthening mutual trust and cooperation on security.

This reassurance was both timely and essential. The island country has been witnessing multiple challenges like political instability, Islamic radicalism, extra-regional powers’ interests, and climate change-induced disasters. These challenges are difficult for a small country like the Maldives to address alone. Moreover, given its strategic location and increasing presence of global powers in the Indian Ocean region, these challenges have been a concern for India too. Only a stable, progressive, and democratic government in Male can manage these risks.

Despite being committed to multiparty democracy and a new constitution in 2008, the Maldives has witnessed several autocratic regimes, including, most recently, Yameen’s. India has always pushed for strengthening of multiparty democracy in the Maldives. It played a crucial role in restoring multiparty democracy by supporting the MDP in 2018. India believes autocratic regimes in the Maldives often engage with elements inimical to India. Yameen was the best example of that. The current crisis in the MDP could still affect the continuation of democracy there.

The Maldives is scheduled to have presidential elections in 2023. Current speaker Nasheed and President Solih have shown an interest. If the Solih government continues to be obstructed by Nasheed, then the Progressive Congress, a coalition of the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People’s National Congress (PNC)—which has been spearheading an “India Out” campaign—could have an advantage in the elections. The Yameen-led Progressive Congress is known for serving Chinese interests. 

Back to Solih’s visit, it appears to have been successful given the release of the 30-point joint statement on 02 August and the signing of six MoUs in areas of mutual interests. India’s commitment to a new LoC of $100 million to finance infrastructure in the Maldives would support several large projects and boost the fragile Maldivian economy.

Politically, the MDP currently enjoys the majority in parliament. If the tussle between Nasheed and Solih continues, the MDP might lose the same in the upcoming elections. India would wish for the continuation of the current inclusive combination of radical, conservative, and liberal democratic forces to tackle critical issues like religious extremism and Yameen-led ‘India Out’ campaign.

As India treats emerging security issues of Maldives as a challenge to its own national security, it would prefer to further strengthen democracy there and protect its sphere of influence.