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It’s wrong to say former UML and Maoist factions remain intact in the ruling Nepal Communist Party. These old factions are in fact losing their salience as new ones develop. Right now, the tussle is between a faction under Prime Minister KP Oli and an emergent one of Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal. This was expected. The party has, as a whole, been copping the blame for PM Oli’s governance failure, be in corona-control, medical education reform, economic development, or implementation of federalism. 

Despite these failures, the party would still be more united were it not for PM Oli’s unilateral ways. For instance, he reshuffled the cabinet earlier this fortnight with little consultation with Dahal and Nepal, and once again packed vital ministries with his cronies. The appointment of Bishnu Poudel, someone implicated in a widely reported land scam, as the finance minister was galling. The new bone of contention is PM Oli’s diktat to provincial NCP parliamentarians for the removal of Karnali Province Chief Minister Mahendra Bahadur Shahi. The attempt was foiled when leaders Dahal and Nepal instructed the Karnali MPs close to them to reject the no-confidence motion tabled against Shahi. 

The prime minister’s direct orders to provincial MPs for Shahi’s removal belie the spirit of federalism. And it was another instance of PM Oli’s attempt to bend the party to his will. The latest ructions in the NCP, coming right on the eve of Dashain, again indicate the difficulties of a rather unnatural marriage between communism and democracy. The prime minister would like to run the NCP as a top-down communist party, but he cannot. This is because he shares party chairmanship with Dahal and internal democracy is enshrined in party charter. The prime minister’s alienation of senior party leaders and his failure to govern during a national medical emergency are not signs of a stable polity.

PM Oli’s repeated attempts to prolong his tenure not by the dint of his service to the country but through internal party machinations will be costly for Nepal. If nothing else, our government head will continue to be consumed with internal party dynamics when all his attention should be on tackling one of the biggest calamities the country has ever faced. 

Most Nepalis will greet the country’s biggest festival that kicks off on Saturday, October 17, with a strange feeling. We have largely been holed up in our homes for well over eight months—and there is no respite in sight. True, the lockdown has been lifted. But that does not mean much when you are constantly reminded of the potentially deadly enemy by the ubiquitous masks and sanitizer bottles wherever you go. The whole family effectively quarantined for months, it’s also no holiday-time.  

If this was the end of the pandemic, perhaps half of us would immediately leave the country. People are dying for novelty of a foreign place and culture after the stultifying conformity they have had to endure for most of 2020. (Oh, what a dastardly year.) Those who can’t afford foreign holidays would leave for Nepal’s favored labor destinations to kick-start their migrant-worker careers. But, as things are, most of us won’t be venturing anywhere far.

Whether or not you mark it as a religious festival, Dashain has always been tantamount to fun. Visiting your ancestral home, eating and drinking, playing cards, bonding with loved ones—it’s the time you forget individual woes and take part in collective celebration. This year, things are different. Many have abandoned all celebration plans. Others are not venturing beyond their homes. Some say they will put ‘e-tika’.

And where’s the money to buy new clothes and appliances? Forget Dashain bonus, most working Nepalis are getting only a fraction of their salary, if at all. Hundreds of thousands have been laid off. Indeed, what is there to celebrate? And how can you celebrate when your friends and relatives are constantly falling sick and even dying from the pandemic?

But we human beings are strange. For the next fortnight, many of us will try to forget we are in the middle of a raging pandemic. We will pretend Durga Mata will look after our health and wellbeing. And we will eat and drink like there is no tomorrow, if only to drown our sorrow. APEX has absolutely no problem with your personal celebration. Just make sure your actions don’t harm others. Stay home. Stay safe. Wait for a better tomorrow. It will come.  

Confusion reigns supreme as people debate whether to celebrate the upcoming Dashain amid a raging corona pandemic. The number of daily reported cases is steadily climbing, with a record 4,364 cases reported on Oct 8. It’s hard to find a person whose close friend or relative has not been infected, suggesting widespread prevalence of Covid-19, over and beyond official numbers. Hospital ICUs are chock-a-block with covid-positive patients, and they are urging all but critical patients to self-isolate. The biggest Hindu festival just over a week away, people are looking forward to it with foreboding. Putting tika while clad in a mask and at a safe distance from your nearest ones isn’t exactly the Dashain spirit. 

Many are already resigned to their fate, as they think it is only a matter of time before they too have the virus—if they don’t already. They thus shun masks and mingle freely. Youths are particularly blasé. The problem is that we know little about the virus nearly a year since its first appearance in China. What little findings there have been in fact suggest long-term health effects even among the youth. This follows an old pattern. During the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic too, the first wave was relatively mild and mostly affected the infirm and elderly. But soon the virus had morphed and came to hit the youth the hardest. There is a risk of a new and more deadly spurt of the virus this winter. 

Thankfully, testing has increased, with nearly 20,000 people now being tested daily—one reason for the higher number of infections. Yet even this is inadequate. If the country is to have any hope of controlling the spread of the virus and preventing its worst consequences, around 100,000 will have to be tested (or retested) every day. Another good news is that self-testing is increasing and those who have discovered on their own are isolating in their homes. Doctors are available for consultations over the phone. Folks are also deriving some comfort by sharing their stories on social media. It’s becoming clear that Nepal will have to work out its own formula to deal with this scourge. But will that be enough? 

Flippant comparisons are often made between Nepali Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and American President Donald Trump. Both define nationalism narrowly, it is alleged, by excluding minorities. Both are loud-mouthed. APEX is happy to argue that our prime minister, with all his flaws, appears like a saint following Trump’s coup de grâce at the first US Presidential debate on Sept 30: Far from the magnanimous leader of the planet’s sole superpower, Trump appeared like a street thug in the vital debate.

He openly lied, including on life-and-death issue of the Covid-19 pandemic. He belittled his opponent’s family. He declined to denounce white supremacists (in fact, he often behaved like their spokesperson). Trump even refused to commit to accepting the result of the US presidential election. The common reaction on Nepali social media after the despicable early morning CNN spectacle was that of exasperation. Many of those who watched the acrimonious debate had headaches (including this writer), and could not believe their eyes and ears: how could the most powerful and best educated democracy in the world elect this clown for president?

Some Nepalis said they realized their country had more to teach the US on inclusive nation-building than the other way round—so bye-bye preachy American INGOs. Others were more sanguine, as they reflected on how democracies can be brought low by demagogues, in countries rich and poor. The lunatic right-fringe Trump represents is not unique to the US. It is in fact gaining traction all over the world, including in our neighborhood. In Nepal too the trend of victimizing the victimized—be it war victims, Dalits, or other marginalized groups—has polarized the society. 

Not everyone accepts the new Nepali constitution. A small spark could again lead to a conflagration in Province 2 or in the Tharu strongholds in the far west. Having reluctantly accepted federalism, Kathmandu has done little to accommodate these diverse regions and groups. The message from the US, currently in turmoil from a spreading pandemic and race riots, is that we should not take our liberties for granted. It only takes one demagogue like Trump to roll them all back and put the country on the path of (another) civil war. Trump’s America is not so much a beacon of hope as it is a cautionary red light.