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President Ram Chandra Paduel has given approval for mobilizing Nepal Army (NA) in the House of Representatives (HoR) and the Province Assembly (PA) by-elections scheduled to take place on April 27.

The Council of the Ministers on April 22 recommended the President to endorse the deployment of the NA to hold the by-elections in a free, impartial and reliable atmosphere, based on the recommendations of the National Security Council meeting held earlier the same day.

The President granted permission for the mobilization of the NA in the by-elections in accordance with Article 66 (2) of the Constitution.

Prabal Adhikari is energy expert and former Deputy Managing Director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). He has acquired a wide range of experiences and expertise in his long career of around three decades in various realms of power sector like hydropower and transmission planning, hydropower generation, transmission, distribution and power trading both at domestic and cross border level. Having played significant roles as the member of various bilateral G2G committees on power sector cooperation between Nepal and the neighboring countries—India, Bangladesh and China—in the past, he has also been responsible for accomplishing different policy-related tasks of the Government of Nepal in the power sector. 

Energy security is measured in two dimensions—uninterrupted energy supply and its affordable price. It is not necessary for a country to be energy independent for achieving energy security in the context of the present global energy ecosystem, but energy independence, owing to the concern of sovereignty, helps increase energy security. It is high time the government chartered strategies for energy security in the country and implemented them on a high priority basis. 

Energy adequacy 

If energy security is achieved through dependence on other countries, there are persistent risks which may be triggered anytime with respect to geopolitical changes. And, as such, energy prices will not be in a state’s control. In addition to these aspects, Nepal should pay attention to the robustness and resilience of the energy system to ensure long-term availability of the energy sources, well-planned energy infrastructures and backup plans in the cases of contingencies and disruption. Despite enormous potential and opportunities, Nepal has not yet pursued the types of reforms needed for this country to escape the disastrous landscape of energy security in future. 

Energy security in peril 

Out of the total final energy consumption in the country, the share of electricity is around 5 percent only as per the statistics, for the year 2021, published by the International Energy Association (IEA), whereas biomass along with waste fuels dominates the portfolio by around 67 percent and fossil fuels by around 27 percent. In this context, it will be challenging for Nepal to achieve net-zero emission by 2045 as committed during the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change unless we have very pragmatic action plans. Further, the per capita electricity consumption of the country is less than 400 kilowatt-hours as of now and the access to electricity hovers around 95 percent of households. The main impediment in the achievement of energy security by Nepal is the non-integrated approach of the government toward energy coupled with policy flaws and delay in power sector reform.

Generation mix 

Nepal had introduced the concept of generation mix for the first time in 2016 through National Energy Crisis Alleviation and Energy Development Decade-Related Concept Paper and Action Plan. It formed the basis for long-term energy security in the country for removing load-shedding on the strength of our own domestic generation, without power imports from neighboring countries. It had proposed the generation mix on the basis of the types of hydropower projects which were diversified into storage (40-50 percent), Peaking Run-of-River (15-20 percent) and Run-of-River (25-30 percent) along with other alternative sources like solar, wind and bagasse (5-10 percent). Private sector moved forward to implement their hydropower projects, especially Run-of-river Types, up to 30 percent of the 10,000 MW target to be met within a decade, as the Action Plan opened the door for them with Power Purchase Agreements on Take-or-Pay basis as the government committed to take the associated risks of power transmission and market. This was the commendable deed of the government. The generation mix, the right concept introduced by the government, needs to be reviewed based on the need assessment of the country and implemented not only for financial pursuits but also from economic and strategic perspectives.

Roadmap and action plan

The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has formulated a comprehensive, visionary plan called ‘Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan, 2023-2035’ for Nepal’s power sector. The peak national demand of 13,500 MW by 2035 based on the assumption of 7.2 percent GDP growth and the power export of 15,000 MW to India and Bangladesh will be met by generating 28,500 MW of renewable power within this timeframe as per the roadmap. The total fund to be arranged for generation, transmission and distribution has been estimated to be $46.5bn for implementing the roadmap. The roadmap is expected to play a pivotal role in the energy security of the country and should also bear the objective of replacing other non-electricity energy sources in the country’s existing energy mix within the timeframe. 

Challenges

The total fund of $46.5bn required from various sources in the timeframe of 12 years as per the Energy Development Roadmap is almost equal to Nepal’s current annual GDP of around $46bn. Though it looks challenging to meet the targets of generating 28,500 MW as envisioned by the roadmap, it is not impossible from the perspective of required funds. However, the biggest challenge for the accomplishment of the targets and the success of the roadmap lies in the expansion of power market and geopolitical risks. If domestic demand stimulation does not follow an optimistic trend, private investment in generation projects seems difficult to be attracted, whereas the geopolitical concerns of India will play vital role to ensure the prospects of power export to India and Bangladesh in the years to come since China-India rivalry and other international relations cannot be absolutely ignored in this regard.

RE transition and energy security

The current energy mix of the country has a fossil fuel content of around 27 percent which needs to be gradually replaced by renewable energy (RE). Since the electricity in the total final energy consumption of the country is around 5 percent only, the journey ahead towards renewable energy transition looms large while emphasizing energy security. However, since almost the entire electricity generation in the country is renewable, achieving RE transition and beefing up energy security are not different issues in the case of Nepal which is rich in hydropower potential and also possesses high solar power prospects. 

Geopolitical wind and SAARC prospects

Energy security prospects of Nepal are vulnerable to the geopolitical winds blowing from the north and the south. Unless Nepal achieves energy security on its own, it may fall prey to the geopolitical threats anytime in future. India’s growing tension with China and Pakistan, both of which have developed a strong defense partnership with China predominantly supplying arms to Pakistan, has smashed the future of SAARC energy cooperation in the region. Hence South Asia, despite diverse resource endowment, has remained weak to fulfill the regional objectives of energy cooperation in the full spirit as per the SAARC Framework Agreement.

BRI signing and concerns 

After Nepal and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on bilateral cooperation under the framework of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017, it added a new dimension to the existing geopolitics in the region from, inter alia, power sector perspectives since hydropower projects and Nepal-China cross border connectivity projects could entice the BRI investment in future, increasing Chinese influence in Nepal—that India cannot feel good, of course, in the environment that India is reportedly set to deploy air defense systems along the disputed border with China. Likewise, Professor SD Muni, who is well known for his extensive knowledge about India’s foreign affairs and the relations with the neighboring countries, speaking on the New Dimensions of Indo-Nepal Relations in an Interaction Program at Biratnagar, Nepal, in March 2024, expressed that China has deployed its military forces in Sino-India border. 

The geopolitical shadows of India-China rivalry and increasing closeness of the neighboring countries with China could be clearly observed in framing policies on cross border power trading when India released the Guidelines for Import/Export (Cross Border) of Electricity in 2018 and the subsequent Procedures in 2021. 

Market integration

Nepal with India have formulated and issued a Joint Vision Statement on Power Sector Cooperation in 2022 which has emphasized the expansion of India-Nepal bilateral power trading to the BBIN region, making renewable energy production, hydropower in particular, a cornerstone of energy partnership, based on respective national policies and respective climate-change commitments. Nepal, being a country highly vulnerable to natural calamities like earthquake and climate change-related disasters, cannot ignore the importance of energy partnership with India and the rest of the world to ensure energy security in the country. 

Transmission infrastructure

Transmission planning and implementation have followed a poor track record. Building transmission infrastructures inside the country and at cross border level are considered as herculean tasks. The sluggish motion observed in the development of domestic transmission lines and substations have already drawn backlashes from the power generators in the country since power evacuation is hugely threatened by the mismatch between the commissioning of new generation projects and transmission projects. Environmental and social issues loom large to cause anomalous time over-run of the transmission projects, whereas policies and inter-ministry coordination mechanisms have resulted in poor performance beyond the control of an implementation entity. Without infrastructural robustness, needless to say, energy security cannot be turned into reality.

In 2023, Nepal experienced its second-warmest year on record. Previously, the hottest year on record for Nepal was 1981. The average maximum temperature for 2023 was 27.9 degrees Celsius, an increase of 0.6 degrees Celsius from the previous normal annual maximum temperature.

Global trends indicate that worldwide temperatures have surpassed the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold across an entire year for the first time, with March 2024 breaking new temperature records. 

Nepal is not exempt from this trend. Several meteorological stations recorded unprecedented high temperatures, reflecting the severity of the heat waves experienced in 2023.

Experts suggest that 2024 could become the hottest year on record, with heat waves already occurring early in the year. 

Weather expert Ngamindra Dahal notes that the record could be broken because intense heat waves have already started. “If a place experiences a temperature of 40 degrees Celsius for an hour, it’s manageable, but the concern arises when such high temperatures persist throughout the day,” he explains.

March 2024 was the warmest March ever recorded globally. It was also the 10th month in a row that was the hottest on record, itself an ongoing record-breaking streak.

The primary cause of the exceptional heat was human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Other factors pushing up temperatures include El Niño, the natural climate pattern that warms the surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said that March averaged 14.14 degrees Celsius, exceeding the previous record from 2016 by a 10th of a degree. The month was also 1.68 degrees Celsius hotter than an average March between the years 1850-1900, the reference period for the pre-industrial era.

The Ministry of Health and Population has urged the public to take preventive measures against the heat wave. The effects of heat waves include fast heartbeat, breathing complications, low blood pressure level, sweating, severe headache, and dizziness. 

Recent research has brought attention to a concerning trend in waste studies in Nepal: a strong emphasis on urban areas while rural regions are often overlooked. The researchers note that traditionally, rural communities managed waste according to local customs and economic factors. However, with changing lifestyles and an uptick in tourism, waste management in rural areas has become increasingly complex. The research also warns that ineffective waste management practices in rural settings could worsen environmental problems.

Every year, Nepal now welcomes over a million tourists, establishing itself as a thriving destination for travelers worldwide. Tourism benefits Nepal by driving economic growth, creating jobs, promoting cultural exchange, and supporting the preservation of its rich heritage. Conversely, tourism in Nepal also presents challenges such as increased solid waste generation, as evidenced by studies conducted in countries like China, India, and Ukraine.

Now it’s not just the Nepalese cities facing solid waste management challenges anymore; rural areas are grappling with them too, especially in regions that are densely populated and popular tourist destinations. Recent studies by Adhikari and colleagues have shown a worrying increase in waste generation per person, especially in places where connectivity is improving, living standards are rising, and people’s consumption habits are changing. The lack of proper waste management facilities only adds to the problem, along with issues like local governments not fully committing to tackling the issue and inefficient decision-making processes. So, there’s a clear need for a detailed investigation into solid waste management problems in rural areas to find effective solutions.

Ghandruk, lying within the Annapurna Rural Municipality, stands as a beacon for tourists due to its breathtaking Himalayan vistas, diverse cultural heritage, and renowned hiking trails, notably along the path to Annapurna Base Camp. Department of Immigration data reveals that out of 83,568 foreign trekkers in Nepal in 2015, a staggering 78,926 chose to explore the Annapurna Conservation Area, highlighting the economic importance of tourism to Ghandruk.

While tourism has undoubtedly brought economic benefits to Ghandruk, contributing significantly to its social, economic, and environmental landscape, there are notable drawbacks, particularly concerning solid waste management. Mass tourism has aggravated the fragility of the mountain environment, leading to instances of environmental degradation, including the accumulation of solid waste. This issue is particularly pressing in rural tourist areas like Ghandruk, where inadequate waste management infrastructure and practices pose significant challenges to environmental sustainability and eco-tourism.

The recent research, titled “Solid Waste Management in Rural Touristic Areas in the Himalayas—A Case Study of Ghandruk, Nepal,” published in Habitat International in Jan 2024, aimed to highlight the gap in waste management studies. It conducted the first-ever waste characterization and analysis of existing solid waste management (SWM) practices in the rural tourist village of Ghandruk, situated in western Nepal. The research studied 64 households and 15 commercial sectors (hotels and restaurants). Waste from each household and commercial sector was examined over two days to quantify waste generation, with methodologies adapted from previous studies. Semi-structured questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews (KIIs), and focus group discussions (FGDs) were utilized to gather qualitative data on household characteristics, waste management practices, awareness of waste management issues, and satisfaction levels. Geographic information system (GIS) software was used for mapping, while descriptive statistics and statistical software were employed for data analysis.

What did the researchers find?

Households in Ghandruk produce 21.3 grams of solid waste per capita per day, while commercial sectors generate 240 g per capita per day. The composition of solid waste in both households and commercial sectors was analyzed, with organic waste found to be the most dominant component. Waste management practices in Ghandruk were examined, revealing a combination of household segregation, collection, and disposal methods. Efforts by local authorities, including the establishment of collection centers and restrictions on plastic bottle sales, aimed to mitigate waste generation and promote recycling.

Local residents expressed varied perceptions of existing waste management practices, with younger respondents showing greater concern for environmental impacts and older participants focusing on health hazards. Collaboration between the Annapurna Conservation Area Project (ACAP) and local communities aimed to educate residents and improve waste management practices.

The findings of the study highlighted the need for a more holistic approach to waste management. While organic waste remained dominant, there was a notable increase in recyclables like glass and plastics, indicating a shift in waste characteristics not unique to Ghandruk but possibly reflective of trends in rural tourist areas worldwide.

The daily per capita waste generation of 261.3 grams revealed by the study challenges the notion that rural areas produce negligible amounts of solid waste. This highlights the critical need to address waste management concerns in these regions, especially with the burgeoning growth of tourism.

Despite commendable waste segregation efforts, the study identified challenges such as unreliable waste collection and transfer mechanisms, posing potential hurdles in the future. Moreover, concerns regarding the handling of non-recyclable waste and frequent open burning call for systematic solutions to mitigate environmental consequences.

The implications of this research extend beyond Nepal, offering valuable insights for policymakers, operators, and regulators grappling with SWM issues in rural tourist areas globally. Recommendations include the implementation of multimodal SWM plans in collaboration with local stakeholders, including households, and incentivizing community involvement through collection fees and deposit-refund systems.

In light of Nepal’s new federal government structure, the study advocates for proactive measures at the provincial and local levels to address emerging SWM challenges effectively. By prioritizing sustainable waste management practices, rural and mountainous regions can preserve their natural beauty while accommodating the needs of growing tourism industries