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Bagmati Province is projected to make the highest contribution to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current fiscal year. The preliminary estimate shows that Bagmati Province's contribution to the total GDP will be 36.4 percent in fiscal year 2023/24.

However, Gandaki Province tops the list in terms of GDP growth rates.  According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), the national GDP is estimated to expand by 3.87 percent to reach Rs 5.75trn in the current fiscal year. 

Compared to the revised estimates of the previous fiscal year, the contribution of the provinces to the total GDP has changed only marginally. Compared to the previous fiscal year, the contributions of Koshi, Madhes, Karnali and Sudurpashchim provinces to the national GDP have slightly decreased, while the contributions of the remaining provinces have increased marginally. The preliminary estimates by the NSO show that the contributions of Koshi, Lumbini, Madhes, Gandaki, Sudurpashchim and Karnali province to the national GDP is estimated to reach 15.8 percent, 14.3 percent, 13.1 percent, 9.1 percent, 7.1 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, in the current fiscal year. 

The GDP size of Bagmati, Koshi and Lumbini is estimated to reach Rs 2.07trn, Rs 903bn and Rs 814bn. Similarly, the GDP size of Madhes, Gandaki, Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces is estimated to reach Rs 748bn, Rs 517bn, Rs 404bn and Rs 244bn, respectively, in the current fiscal year

How are the provinces faring?

The GDP of Koshi Province is estimated at Rs 903bn, contributing around 15.84 percent to the national GDP. Its economic growth rate is projected at 3.51 percent, higher than the previous year's 2.13 percent. The agriculture sector is expected to be the highest contributor (32.80 percent) in the provincial GDP, while administrative services will have the lowest contribution (0.32 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is likely to experience the highest growth (22.32 percent), contrasted by a decline in the manufacturing sector (-2.67 percent).

Likewise, the GDP of Madhes Province is estimated to reach Rs 748bn in the current fiscal year accounting for 13.12 percent of the national GDP. Its growth rate is estimated at 3.78 percent, up from 1.50 percent the previous fiscal year. Agriculture is anticipated to be the highest contributor (35.19 percent), while mining and quarrying will contribute the least (0.15 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is poised for the highest growth (21.95 percent), while the construction sector is projected to witness the lowest growth (-2.19 percent).

Bagmati, contributing over a third of the national GDP at Rs 2,075bn, is expected to grow at 3.96 percent, up from the previous fiscal year’s 1.77 percent. The wholesale and retail trade sector is likely to be the highest contributor (21.53 percent), while the water supply and waste management sector will contribute the least (0.28 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is projected to have the highest growth (20.93 percent), while the construction sector is expected to  contract by 2.71 percent.

Similarly, Gandaki’s GDP is estimated at Rs 517bn which is 9.06 percent of the national GDP. Its growth rate is projected at 4.55 percent, higher than the previous year's 3.30 percent. The agriculture sector is expected to be the highest contributor (25.72 percent), while administrative services will have the lowest contribution (0.31 percent) in the provincial GDP. The accommodation and food service sector is likely to experience the highest growth (22.84 percent), while the lowest is from the construction sector which is estimated to  decline by 1.96 percent.

Lumbini’s GDP is estimated at Rs 814bn, with a projected growth rate of 4.05 percent, up from 1.99 percent the previous fiscal year. Agriculture is anticipated to be the highest contributor (29.63 percent), while administrative services will contribute the least (0.34 percent). The electricity sector is poised for the highest growth (28.93 percent), while the manufacturing sector is projected to contract by 1.43 percent.

Similarly, Karnali’s GDP is estimated at Rs 244bn, with a growth rate of 3.39 percent. This is higher than the previous fiscal year’s growth rate of 1.96 percent. The agriculture sector is expected to be the highest contributor (29.51 percent), while administrative services will have the lowest contribution (0.17 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is likely to experience the highest growth (22.52 percent), while the construction sector is expected to contract by 1.02 percent.

Sudurpashchim’s GDP size is worth Rs 404bn, with a projected growth rate of 3.41 percent, up from 1.52 percent in the previous fiscal year. Agriculture is anticipated to be the highest contributor (33.00 percent), while administrative services will contribute the least (0.13 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is poised for the highest growth (22.33 percent), while the manufacturing sector is projected to shrink by 1.82 percent.\

The price of gold has dropped by Rs 1, 800 per tola in the domestic market on Thursday.

According to the Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association, the yellow metal is being traded at Rs 138, 700 per tola today. It was traded at Rs 140, 500 per tola on Wednesday.

Similarly, tejabi gold is being traded at Rs 138, 050 per tola. It was traded at Rs 139, 800 per tola.

Meanwhile, the price of silver has dropped by Rs 35 and is being traded at Rs 1,865 per tola today.

Petroleum exploration work is progressing in full swing in the Panchakoshi region of Dailekh. Engineers are engaged in drilling operations in Jaljale of Bhairabi Rural Municipality-1, with financial and technical assistance from the China Geological Survey. Drilling commenced last week after completion of various stages of survey in the region.

The drilling is part of the China Aid on Oil and Gas Resources Project, which is being jointly implemented by the Department of Mines and Geology of Nepal, the China Geological Survey and Xibu Drilling Engineering Company. The drilling work began after the Chinese companies supplied and installed the necessary equipment for the final exploration and extraction of petroleum products.

Minister for Industry, Commerce and Supplies, Damodar Bhandari, officially inaugurated the drilling operations. On the occasion, he stated that if the Dailekh mine proves feasible for extraction, it would significantly contribute to the country’s economic prosperity. “If petroleum products are confirmed in Dailekh, it will provide a substantial economic boost to the country. After that, Nepal will be known not as an importer but as an exporter of petroleum products,” said Minister Bhandari. “The drilling work will be completed soon, after which the presence of petroleum products will be ascertained. Further exploration and extraction works will follow.”

According to Dinesh Kumar Napit, chief of the Petroleum Exploration and Promotion Project under the Department of Mines and Geology, a team including Chinese experts has been deployed at the exploration site. “We will drill up to 4,000 meters. After this drilling, we can confirm whether this mine is feasible,” he said. “The possibility of finding petroleum products increases at depths between 3,500 and 4,000 meters, and necessary work has begun in that direction.” Napit said whether the mine will be feasible for crude oil or natural gas can be confirmed only after the completion of drilling, which is estimated to take five months. “We have drilled 53 meters so far,” he added.

Gasses have been burning on the earth’s surface in Dailekh for hundreds of years, and petroleum products have been seeping out in the area from Paduka to Shristhan. According to Napit, this is strong evidence confirming the existence of petroleum products in the area. “However, studies and research need to be conducted to determine the depth, locations, and quantity, and whether extraction will be technically and economically viable,” he added. Previous surveys had indicated the presence of crude oil and gas in the area.

Chure hills and Tarai regions potential areas

Some parts of Nepal’s Chure hills and the Terai region are considered highly potential areas for petroleum products. Accordingly, the Department of Mines and Geology has been conducting studies and research. The Nepal Petroleum Act was enacted in 1983 to regulate petroleum-related provisions in Nepal. The Petroleum Rules were introduced a year later.

“After the Act and Rules came into effect, the Department of Mines and Geology started advancing various studies, surveys and research in potential areas for petroleum products by entering into agreements with international companies,” Napit said. He added that petroleum exploration has also taken place in Bahuni of Morang. “It appears that drilling was carried out up to around 3,500 meters there. However, no petroleum products were found during the drilling process,” he said. In addition to Morang, some areas of the Chure hills and Terai regions were explored for potential oil extraction and exploration.

Exploration in Panchakoshi

In Nov 2015, a Chinese team led by then-Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and then Industry Minister Som Prasad Pandey arrived in Dailekh. Oli announced that the government would start petroleum exploration works in the area soon. In March of the following year, Nepal and China agreed to cooperate in petroleum product exploration and extraction.

During Oli’s China visit, a bilateral understanding (G2G) was reached between Nepal and China. In 2019, the government approved a program to conduct detailed petroleum product exploration in Dailekh with China’s assistance. The Department of Mines and Geology and the China Geological Survey signed an agreement to explore and extract petroleum products in Dailekh, with financial and technical assistance worth Rs 2.4bn, in the same year. Oli formally inaugurated exploration at the Navisthan site in 2019. The technical teams from the two countries have completed seismic surveys, geological surveys, magneto-telluric surveys, and geochemical sampling surveys so far.

The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) gained 15.54 points to close at 2,131.49 points on Wednesday.

Similarly, the sensitive index surged by 5.06 points to close at 382. 67 points.

A total of 14,419,521-shares of 318 companies were traded for Rs 5. 68 billion.

Meanwhile, Samudayik Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (SLBSL) and Buddha Bhumi Nepal Hydropower Company Limited (BNHC) were the top gainers today, with their price surging by 10. 00 percent.

Likewise, Manushi Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (MLBS) was the top loser as its price fell by 8.05 percent.

At the end of the day, total market capitalization stood at Rs 3. 37 trillion.