Bagmati contributes a third of national GDP

Bagmati Province is projected to make the highest contribution to the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current fiscal year. The preliminary estimate shows that Bagmati Province's contribution to the total GDP will be 36.4 percent in fiscal year 2023/24.

However, Gandaki Province tops the list in terms of GDP growth rates.  According to the National Statistics Office (NSO), the national GDP is estimated to expand by 3.87 percent to reach Rs 5.75trn in the current fiscal year. 

Compared to the revised estimates of the previous fiscal year, the contribution of the provinces to the total GDP has changed only marginally. Compared to the previous fiscal year, the contributions of Koshi, Madhes, Karnali and Sudurpashchim provinces to the national GDP have slightly decreased, while the contributions of the remaining provinces have increased marginally. The preliminary estimates by the NSO show that the contributions of Koshi, Lumbini, Madhes, Gandaki, Sudurpashchim and Karnali province to the national GDP is estimated to reach 15.8 percent, 14.3 percent, 13.1 percent, 9.1 percent, 7.1 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively, in the current fiscal year. 

The GDP size of Bagmati, Koshi and Lumbini is estimated to reach Rs 2.07trn, Rs 903bn and Rs 814bn. Similarly, the GDP size of Madhes, Gandaki, Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces is estimated to reach Rs 748bn, Rs 517bn, Rs 404bn and Rs 244bn, respectively, in the current fiscal year

How are the provinces faring?

The GDP of Koshi Province is estimated at Rs 903bn, contributing around 15.84 percent to the national GDP. Its economic growth rate is projected at 3.51 percent, higher than the previous year's 2.13 percent. The agriculture sector is expected to be the highest contributor (32.80 percent) in the provincial GDP, while administrative services will have the lowest contribution (0.32 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is likely to experience the highest growth (22.32 percent), contrasted by a decline in the manufacturing sector (-2.67 percent).

Likewise, the GDP of Madhes Province is estimated to reach Rs 748bn in the current fiscal year accounting for 13.12 percent of the national GDP. Its growth rate is estimated at 3.78 percent, up from 1.50 percent the previous fiscal year. Agriculture is anticipated to be the highest contributor (35.19 percent), while mining and quarrying will contribute the least (0.15 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is poised for the highest growth (21.95 percent), while the construction sector is projected to witness the lowest growth (-2.19 percent).

Bagmati, contributing over a third of the national GDP at Rs 2,075bn, is expected to grow at 3.96 percent, up from the previous fiscal year’s 1.77 percent. The wholesale and retail trade sector is likely to be the highest contributor (21.53 percent), while the water supply and waste management sector will contribute the least (0.28 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is projected to have the highest growth (20.93 percent), while the construction sector is expected to  contract by 2.71 percent.

Similarly, Gandaki’s GDP is estimated at Rs 517bn which is 9.06 percent of the national GDP. Its growth rate is projected at 4.55 percent, higher than the previous year's 3.30 percent. The agriculture sector is expected to be the highest contributor (25.72 percent), while administrative services will have the lowest contribution (0.31 percent) in the provincial GDP. The accommodation and food service sector is likely to experience the highest growth (22.84 percent), while the lowest is from the construction sector which is estimated to  decline by 1.96 percent.

Lumbini’s GDP is estimated at Rs 814bn, with a projected growth rate of 4.05 percent, up from 1.99 percent the previous fiscal year. Agriculture is anticipated to be the highest contributor (29.63 percent), while administrative services will contribute the least (0.34 percent). The electricity sector is poised for the highest growth (28.93 percent), while the manufacturing sector is projected to contract by 1.43 percent.

Similarly, Karnali’s GDP is estimated at Rs 244bn, with a growth rate of 3.39 percent. This is higher than the previous fiscal year’s growth rate of 1.96 percent. The agriculture sector is expected to be the highest contributor (29.51 percent), while administrative services will have the lowest contribution (0.17 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is likely to experience the highest growth (22.52 percent), while the construction sector is expected to contract by 1.02 percent.

Sudurpashchim’s GDP size is worth Rs 404bn, with a projected growth rate of 3.41 percent, up from 1.52 percent in the previous fiscal year. Agriculture is anticipated to be the highest contributor (33.00 percent), while administrative services will contribute the least (0.13 percent). The accommodation and food service sector is poised for the highest growth (22.33 percent), while the manufacturing sector is projected to shrink by 1.82 percent.\