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Foreign trade data of the first nine months of the current fiscal year, released by the Department of Customs earlier this week, show exports are rising at a healthy pace. This should have been welcome news for an import-dependent economy like ours. 

However, the underlying structure is fragile and heavily dependent on a narrow set of products and markets. This imbalance continues to expose the economy to external shocks and policy risks, particularly from its largest trading partner, India.

Nepal exported products worth Rs 222.93bn between mid-July last year to mid-March of the current fiscal year. This marked an 18.46 percent increase compared to the same period last year. On a daily basis, exports averaged around Rs 825m. At first glance, the growth looks healthy. However, the composition of the country’s exports trade reveals a different picture. A significant portion, over Rs 90bn, of the country’s total export earnings came from processed soybean oil alone.

The country’s export growth is being driven less by domestic industrial depth and more by opportunistic trade. Nepal imports crude palm and soybean oil from countries as far as Argentina, processes it to meet rules of origin requirements, and re-exports the finished product to India to cash in on preferential treatments. Nepali refineries imported crude soybean oil worth Rs 96.72bn during the review period. 

This model is working simply due to tariff differentials and preferential trade arrangements rather than genuine value addition or competitive manufacturing. Such a structure, however, is unstable. A policy change in India, such as revising import duties, tightening rules of origin, or discouraging re-export-based trade, could sharply reduce or even eliminate Nepal’s largest export stream overnight. India has done it in the past. The southern neighbor has been adjusting its tariff regime periodically to protect domestic industries. Any move in that direction could significantly impact edible oil exports from Nepal.

Except for processed edible oils, Nepal’s export basket is relatively thin. Traditional exports like cardamom, carpets, pashmina, tea, and garments are contributing and posting healthy growths. However, none of these products approach the scale of edible oil exports. Nepal may have a competitive edge in these products. However, they face several constraints, ranging from quality consistency and certification issues to supply chain inefficiencies and limited branding.

Meanwhile, imports surged 13.82 percent to Rs 1.49trn. Imports over a single month, i.e. Chaitra (mid-March to mid-Apply), crossed the Rs 200bn mark for the first time. The import bill remains heavily dominated by petroleum products, with diesel imports alone exceeding Rs 100bn, followed by petrol, LPG, and aviation fuel. Since Nepal is heavily dependent on imports, India to be more precise, petroleum imports continues to widen the trade deficit.

The trade deficit itself grew by 13.04 percent to Rs 1.27trn in nine months. The export-to-import ratio slipped slightly to 6.69 percent. Part of the rise in import value can be attributed to global price pressures, due to the crisis in West Asia and subsequent supply disruptions. However, the broader issue lies in our consumption-driven economy. Remittance inflows are sustaining demand for imported goods without a corresponding expansion in productive export sectors.

The customs data suggest that the export sector is growing, but on shaky foundations. The dominance of processed edible oil exports is creating an illusion of strength while masking deeper structural weaknesses. If this single pillar weakens, the overall export performance could deteriorate rapidly.

Nepal needs to diversify its trade if it intends to build a more resilient trade profile. Strengthening high-value, labor-intensive sectors such as garments, carpets, and agro-products, while also investing in new areas like hydropower exports, IT services, and niche manufacturing can be a step in that direction. Equally important is improving trade logistics, certification standards, and market access beyond India.

Rising prices are becoming a daily reality for consumers across Nepal, with the cost of transport, fuel, and essential goods climbing steadily over the past six months. Wherever you go, people are talking about the rising cost of goods and services. The issue has become so pressing that it is now discussed everywhere.

A few days ago, I used inDrive after about a month. It usually costs Rs 130–140 to travel from my office to home, but this time I paid Rs 210. When I spoke to the rider, he said, “Because of the high petrol cost, we have to raise prices to maintain our earnings.” 

Public transport fares within the Kathmandu Valley have also risen significantly in recent days. Fares increased by 25.96 percent, effective from April 11. The Department of Transport Management has applied this change not only to urban transport but also to long-distance passenger and service-oriented vehicles. Long-distance bus fares have increased by 16.71 percent.

Similarly, service vehicle charges have gone up, with goods carriers rising by 15.75 percent on Tarai routes and 21.68 percent on hilly roads, reflecting the broader impact of rising fuel costs. The situation is tied not only to domestic factors but also to the tensions in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Concerns over disruptions in oil supply, especially through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, have driven up fuel prices, affecting import-dependent countries like Nepal.

People across Nepal have also struggled to access LPG gas, with many shifting to induction cooking due to shortages. The government has even implemented weekend holidays as a temporary measure to cope with fuel shortages and rising prices. These responses reflect a broader pattern of short-term adjustments rather than long-term solutions. Markets are becoming increasingly expensive, and many people can no longer afford basic goods at previous prices. Inflation is now visible across nearly every sector.

The Asian Development Bank warned last month that prolonged disruptions in energy markets could raise inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific by 3.2 percent and reduce economic growth in the region by 1.3 percent by 2026–2027.

“I travel daily from Kirtipur to Ratnapark for my graphic design internship, using my own vehicle,” said 25-year-old Rojesh Maharjan. “Earlier, petrol used to cost around Rs 100–150, but now it has reached around Rs 200.” “As an intern, I don’t earn much, and I spend around Rs 250 per day on fuel. It’s not enough. I often skip lunch to manage expenses,” he added. “Because of rising costs, I’ve started considering public transport when money is tight.”

“If prices continue to rise, salaries should increase accordingly. Only then can people cope,” Maharjan said.

Fuel prices have surged sharply between mid-March and mid-April, making the market increasingly unaffordable. Petrol, which cost Rs 157 per litre just a month ago, has risen by Rs 62 to Rs 219. Diesel and kerosene prices have also climbed significantly, from Rs 142 to Rs 237 per litre.

The impact is visible across sectors. LPG has increased by Rs 100, reaching Rs 2,010 per cylinder. Domestic aviation fuel prices have more than doubled, rising from Rs 127 to Rs 262 per litre, while international aviation fuel has jumped from $966 to $1,716 per kilolitre.

“Inflation is being driven by multiple factors, including ongoing conflict in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions,” said an official from the Department of Commerce, Supplies and Consumer Protection. “We seized around 6,300 LPG cylinders from dealers last month and redistributed them. Since then, such cases have declined,” the official added. “If we receive complaints of hoarding or black marketing, we will take action.”

Many people are aware of the broader causes. Rukesh Shah, 34, from Rautahat and now living in Bhaktapur, works collecting scrap materials.

“This situation has been created by tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran,” he said. “If India faces difficulties in securing goods, Nepal is in even greater trouble.” “Our income has remained the same, and as daily wage workers, we are sometimes paid even less. This directly affects our daily lives,” he said, urging the government to act.

Parbati Sah, a shopkeeper, said she understands the reasons behind rising prices. “Dealers tell us costs have increased, and they cannot sell at a loss,” she said. “In most items, prices have risen by around 23 to 30 percent.” She added that the situation has strained customer trust. “Customers often don’t believe us when we say prices have gone up. Sometimes we are forced to sell at lower prices and bear the loss.”

Her husband, who helps run the stall, said rising costs have forced them to adjust prices. “Earlier, we sold samosas for Rs 20; now they are Rs 25. Other items have also increased,” he said. “This has affected our small business.” He added that inflation is affecting more than just goods. “Room and shop rents have also increased, making it even harder to manage.”

A customer at the shop offered a different perspective: “Inflation is happening because of corruption and political rivalries among leaders,” he said, adding that this is how the situation appears from a consumer’s point of view. The cost of essential goods has also risen. Sunflower oil has increased by Rs 40 to Rs 295, while mustard oil has gone up to Rs 375 from Rs 325.

According to the Department of Commerce, the price of General Sona Mansuli rice in the Kathmandu Valley has increased by Rs 36, reaching Rs 95 per kg from Rs 59. Steamed Jeera rice has risen to Rs 102 per kg, while basmati rice now costs Rs 185 per kg. Other staples have also become more expensive. Maize flour now costs Rs 127 per kg, while wheat flour has risen to Rs 60 per kg.

Even water prices have increased in some areas. The Federation of Nepal Water Industries recently stated that shortages of raw materials—such as plastic bottles, caps, and packaging materials—have driven up production costs.

“The prices of raw materials used in the water industry have increased by around 40 percent,” the federation said. “This is not profit-driven but a result of rising production and transportation costs.” As a result, bottled mineral water in parts of Kathmandu now costs Rs 25–30, up from Rs 20.

As prices continue to rise across fuel, transport, and essential goods, the burden is falling most heavily on ordinary consumers. From commuters and daily wage workers to small business owners, many are being forced to cut expenses and adjust their lifestyles just to cope.

While global factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions play a role, public concern is growing over the lack of immediate relief and long-term solutions. Inflation is no longer just an economic indicator—it has become a lived reality shaping everyday decisions and survival.

Federation of Nepal Water Industries stated that raw material prices, including plastic bottles, caps, jars, and wrapping rolls, have risen by around 40 percent. “This is not a profit-oriented decision, but a forced situation,” the federation said. In several parts of Kathmandu, mineral water now sells for Rs 25–30, up from Rs 20.

As prices continue to climb, the burden falls hardest on ordinary people. Commuters, daily wage workers, small business owners are all forced to cut back and adjust just to get by. Global factors like geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions are significant contributors, but the public's growing frustration is with the absence of immediate relief and credible long-term solutions. Inflation is no longer just an economic indicator. It has become a lived reality, shaping everyday decisions and survival across Nepal.

The Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) plunged by 25. 81 points to close at 2, 744. 45 points on Wednesday. 

Similarly, the sensitive index dropped by 3. 06 points to close at 464. 51 points.

A total of 12,134,360-unit shares of 351 companies were traded for Rs 1. 55 billion.

Meanwhile, Corporate Development Bank Limited (CORBL) was the top gainer today with its price surging by 13. 81 percent.

Likewise,  10% KBL Debenture 2090 (KBLD90) was the top loser as their price fell by 11. 46 percent.

At the end of the day, the total market capitalization stood at Rs 4. 68 trillion.

The price of gold has dropped by Rs 3, 000 per tola in the domestic market on Wednesday. 

According to the Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association, the yellow metal is being traded at Rs 294, 500 per tola today.   It was traded at Rs 297, 500 per tola on Tuesday. 

Similarly, the price of silver has dropped by Rs 30 per tola and is being traded at Rs 4, 915 per tola.