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There are no immediate threats to undo the current coalition government led by the CPN (Maoist Center). At least, that’s what Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner, Sher Bahadur Deuba, of the Nepali Congress have been trying to convince the people. But if one considers the recent formation of the so-called socialist front of the Maoist party and fringe communist forces, talk about the government change made by some NC leaders, and the second-rung leaders of the NC and the UML exploring the possibility of collaboration, it is hard to buy into Prime Minister Dahal and NC President Deuba’s assurance of a stable government. Some leaders in the NC and the UML say that the two parties must come together for the guarantee of political stability for at least another general election. UML leader Gokul Banskota, who is close to the party chairman, KP Oli, has publicly stated that while there cannot be an electoral alliance between the two parties, the UML and NC can form a government to ensure political and economic stability in the country. The UML has historically been the main political rival of the NC, and there are many leaders in both the parties who believe that they should always remain apart. But there are plenty of reasons that could bring these two parties together. The main one being the arrests of and allegations against several UML and NC leaders in corruption cases, like the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal and the Lalita Niwas land grab case. The leaderships of both the NC and the UML are not pleased with the Home Ministry, led by the Maoist party, opening investigations into corruption cases involving high-profile individuals. NC President Deuba, a key partner in the ruling coalition, has so far remained silent regarding government change, but people close to him say that he is not pleased with the Dahal administration, particularly regarding the way the refugee scandal is being pursued by the Home Ministry. The UML is keen to enter serious negotiations with the NC for the formation of a new government without the Maoist Center. But NC leader Min Bahadur Bishwakarma says that the party is committed to keeping the coalition intact. On Sunday, UML Chairman Oli said that there has not been any substantial discussions regarding the formation of a new coalition because the NC was fearful. But, Deuba’s non-committal and his apparent willingness to play second fiddle to the Maoist party do not mean that he is playing the safe card. Talks about a broad alliance of left parties are also gaining momentum of late, and it could see both Dahal and Oli together again. It is worth noting here that though Dahal may be leading the current ruling coalition, his party came in third in the last year’s general elections, far behind the NC and UML—and that too despite forming an electoral alliance with the NC and other fringe parties. So, it is very much in the interest of Dahal and his party to form some sort of lasting alliance at the earliest in order to stay relevant. The evolving dynamics inside the NC has also prompted Dahal to find an alternative. The factions led by Gagan Kumar Thapa and Gururaj Ghimire in the NC are already saying that the NC should not forge an alliance with the Maoist party in the next general elections. Besides, Thapa has also been saying that the current ruling alliance could change if the government fails to deliver. These developments have made Prime Minister Dahal suspicious. He may be in favor of giving continuity to the current coalition, as he has been saying publicly, but he is also aware that his party cannot survive if it were to contest the next general elections on its own. In the previous two general elections, the Maoist Center had forged poll alliances with the UML and the NC respectively. For Prime Minister Dahal’s party, the only lifeline is making an alliance with other parties. So, it sees everything through the prism of election. Several leaders in the Maoist party are convinced that the NC is not committed to a long-term collaboration and that the party should start looking for an alternative. This means the party will align with the UML, if it has to. Already, four political parties have formed a socialist alliance, led by the Maoists, with a purpose of expanding it to the grassroots level. Dahal is also in talks with the leader of Maoist splinter groups to bring them back into the party. He is said to be in talks with former Maoists ideologue Baburam Bhattarai,  now of the Nepal Samajbadi Party,  to explore ways to unite. It is said that before talking with Oli, Dahal first wants to solidify his position by bringing all fringe communist parties under one umbrella. The meteoric rise of the Rastriya Swatantra Party has also alarmed the Maoists. If the RSP continues to ride the wave of popularity until the next general elections, it is not just the Maoists that could get an electoral thrashing, the NC and the UML could also lose their political base. This was evident in the by-elections held earlier this year. The formation of a left alliance will no doubt be welcomed by China. Over the past few years, China has been consistently advising Nepal’s left parties to come together. Beijing’s leadership will ask Prime Minister Dahal for the same when he visits China in September.  Until now, Prime Minister Dahal has been shrugging off the talks about the breakup in the Maoist-NC coalition, but he has also not ruled out the possibility of leftist alliance. He said on Monday that the NC should not overreact to the talks about the formation of left unity, as it does not mean disunity in the current ruling coalition. But if Oli’s recent statement is to be believed, the Maoists and the UML could once again unite to form a large communist party, like they did in 2018 with the short-lived Nepal Communist Party (NCP). A few days back, Oli said that there must be a serious review as to why the NCP split. UML leader Amrit Kumar Bohara says there is a sizable communist voter numbers in the country, and their combined strength will not be known for as long as leftist parties in Nepal are scattered. Chairman of CPN (Unified Socialist) Madhav Kumar Nepal, also former leader of the UML, also believes that only a powerful communist party could bring social and economic changes in the country. Maoist lawmaker Madhav Sapkota says while there is no immediate chance of left parties uniting, efforts are definitely underway. He adds the parties are continuing the efforts after learning lessons from the past. Bishwakarma, the NC leader, says unification among communist parties is an agenda that has been discussed for a long time, and that his party will have no issue if the parties of similar ideologies come together. It will not upset the NC as long as it does not affect the current coalition, he adds.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has completed six months in office. He was appointed the prime minister for the third time with the backing of the CPN-UML on Dec 25 last year. But the coalition didn’t last long due to a dispute over the presidential candidate, which brought together the current coalition of Dahal’s party, CPN (Maoist Center), and the Nepali Congress. On Thursday, the Office of the Prime Minister and Council of Ministers issued a 44-page long progress report of the Dahal government in the last six months. Naturally, the report talks about various achievements of the government. It makes no effort to ease the general concern regarding government stability. There is still no certainty that the current coalition will remain intact for the next five years. It took more than five months for Prime Minister Dahal to give a complete shape to his Cabinet due to the change in coalition. There is no guarantee that the current coalition will remain intact. Prime Minister Dahal is in constant fear that the NC and other coalition partners could pull out their support to his government at any time. In these past six months, the government has also failed to bring stability to bureaucracy. There have been frequent changes of government secretaries and other high-level officials. If the prime minister fails to ensure that this coalition will remain in power for five years, the bureaucracy, which is highly politicized, will not cooperate with him. This non-cooperation will impact the government’s delivery. So far, Prime Minister Dahal has spent most of his time attending formal programs and inaugurations, instead of closely working with bureaucracy to improve governance. The only positive of the Dahal government, says NC youth leader Shankar Tiwari, is that it has taken the much-needed initiative to fight corruption. After weeks of uncertainty, it seems that the government is on the right track and the NC is fully ready to back this government, he adds. Regarding the rumors about government change, Tiwari says that there is no immediate chance of that happening and that the NC is happy to sit back and support Prime Minister Dahal. NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba is also not in favor of changing the government, though the party’s general secretary, Gagan Kumar Thapa, has said that the government could change. In order to keep the coalition intact, Prime Minister Dahal has addressed the dissatisfaction of CPN (Unified Socialist) and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, who were displeased with the monopoly of the NC and the Maoist in the government and the budget planning process. The passage of the budget also shows that the government is secure for now. Perhaps this is why the government came up with its progress report, touting a long list of accomplishments. But the situation on the ground has not improved. We can see long queues of service-seekers in the government offices. Country’s economic situation is turning from bad to worse despite the government's claim that there has been some improvement. Lawmaker and noted economist Swarnim Wagle has warned that though Nepal is not at risk of becoming the next Sri Lank, the country could still plunge into a serious debt trap. The report says that the government has achieved success in addressing the issues such as high-interest, devaluation of Nepali currency, pressure of foreign exchange reserves, but economists are not convinced. The Dahal government has drawn some appreciation for not interfering in the investigation of big scandals like fake refugee scam and Lalita Niwas land grab case. It has claimed that the policy of zero-tolerance to corruption has been implemented in all federal, provincial and local government agencies. It has listed the investigation into Bhutanese refugee scandal and formation of a committee on shark-loan victims as achievements. But there are still doubts regarding the so-called big fish or powerful individuals getting prosecuted. As claimed in the government's document, there has been some ease in the service relating to citizenship, national identity card, passport, driving license and no objection letter but people are still forced to queue in the government offices. There are reports about people from Madhes staying in a long queue to get citizenship. The government also faces criticism for failing to provide business to both the House of Representatives and National Assembly, but the government report refutes this. The report says: "The Government has tabled nine bills (seven in HoR and two in National Assembly) and has cleared some working procedures and directives.” The decision to distribute cash incentives to minor combatants in the former People’s Liberation Army of the Maoist party had also caused a major controversy. But the Dahal government has listed this decision as a major progress made in the peace process. The progress report also lists Prime Minister’s India visit on May 31-June 3 as a remarkable progress, stating that various significant agreements were signed during the trip. Mahesh Kumar Bartaula, whip of the main opposition CPN-UML, says there is no single convincing indicator to show that the Dahal government has been a success. He claims that the problems of unemployment remain unaddressed, farmers are still facing fertilizer shortage, domestic agricultural products still do not not have market access, corruption is thriving, and the cost of living is increasing. In essence, Bartaula says, the government that was elected from the national election with a fresh mandate has failed to instill the hope of optimism and hope among the public.

According to the STEPS Survey of Nepal 2019, around 27,000 deaths occur annually from tobacco use, which comprises about 14.9 percent of all deaths. Despite this huge loss of life, tobacco related law and taxation policy remain dismal. The government is reluctant to increase tobacco tax due to the pressure from big tobacco companies. This year too, Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat did not heed the experts’ suggestion to increase the tobacco tax by 40 percent. Today, tobacco products are readily available to anyone including the minors, and they are being openly consumed in public places. The Tobacco Control and Regulation Act 2011 law bars tobacco use in public places, but the law is hardly followed or enforced. The law also prohibits sales and distribution of tobacco products within a 100-meter radius of health and educational institutions. Again, there is no one to implement the rule. Shops and tea stalls outside hospitals, schools and colleges openly sell tobacco products. Health journalist Kalpana Acharya says it is common to see shops and street vendors selling cigarettes and other tobacco products outside major hospitals such as Kanti Children’s Hospital, TU Teaching Hospital, Bir Hospital, and Patan Hospital, among others. Public health experts say there is no designated agency to implement the anti-tobacco laws and regulations. Ideally, the Ministry of Health and Population should be coordinating with the Ministry of Home Affairs and its subordinating bodies to implement the laws on tobacco use. But this has not been happening. There is also a lack of awareness among the public about the laws that are in place, because the government has not taken any initiative to let people know. Journalist Acharya says running campaigns on the health risks of tobacco use alone will not help. She says many shopkeepers and street vendors she talked with didn't know that there was an anti-tobacco law in the country, and that it was illegal to sell cigarettes and other tobacco products near hospitals and educational institutions. It shows that the government simply is not bothered to discourage the use of tobacco products, because it runs against the interest of tobacco companies. This is also why tobacco tax in Nepal is among the lowest in the whole of South Asia. Global experiences show that increasing tobacco excise taxes and prices is the most effective, cost-effective, and result-oriented measure for reducing tobacco use. But the government is not ready to take the path. Health experts and stakeholders that ApEx talked to as part of the Annapurna Media Network’s ‘No Tobacco Drive’ also agree that substantially increasing the tobacco tax is the sure-fire way to discourage tobacco use and save lives. They say doing so would also help generate more revenue in the form of tobacco tax. But government officials fear that raising the tax on tobacco will only promote illicit trade. However, studies have shown that tobacco blackmarket will not be that big of a problem if the tobacco tax is raised significantly. Nepal is also obliged to raise its tobacco tax as per the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, of which it is a party. The framework talks about raising tobacco excise taxes so that they account for at least 70 percent of retail prices.  So by setting low tax on tobacco, the Nepal government is flouting the rules set by the WHO. The UN health agency has also suggested the MPOWER policy package for country-level implementation of effective interventions to reduce the demand for tobacco. The six evidence-based components of MPOWER are: monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies; protect people from tobacco smoke; offer help to quit tobacco use, warn about the dangers of tobacco; enforce ban on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and raise taxes on tobacco. Nepal has failed to comply with most of these intervention measures. Experts say for the effective implementation of the anti-tobacco law, there should be a proper interaction between government agencies and the tobacco industry, which is not happening now. To improve the situation, there is also a need for sensitization among the political parties. Our lawmakers rarely speak about those matters in the Parliament to press the government to increase taxes and implement the law. They are more focused on securing development projects in their core constituency and less on the issues related to public health. It takes commitment and cooperation from all sides if we are to create a tobacco-free, healthy society. HIghlights

• Monitoring tobacco use and prevention policies
•  Protect people from tobacco smoke
•  Offer help to quit tobacco use,
•  Warn about the dangers of tobacco;
• Enforce ban on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship
• Raise taxes on tobacco.

Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha is traveling to China today. He will be leading a seven-member delegation to attend a trade fair in Chengdu. Bilateral engagements and visit exchanges between Nepal and China have increased in recent days. Only last week, Minister for Industry, Commerce and Supplies Ramesh Rijal attended the 13th Xinjiang-Kashi-Central Asia and South Asia Commodity Fair organized by the Kashi Prefecture Administration of China. Rijal delivered a statement at the opening ceremony of the event on 21 June, where he said that fairs and expos offered a good platform for exhibitors, entrepreneurs, and businessmen from South Asia and Central Asia to showcase their products, as well as to strengthen economic and people-to-people relations. He also appreciated the trade facilities provided by China to Nepali products while stressing the need for bolstering Nepali exports to China. In the second week of June, Chairman of the National Assembly, Ganesh Prasad Timalsena, also visited China. He met the Chairman of China’s People's Congress, Zhao Leji, and the two agreed to advance cooperation between the legislative bodies of the two countries. Leji said that leaders of the two countries have elevated the China-Nepal relationship to a strategic partnership of cooperation featuring ever-lasting friendship for development and prosperity. Beijing has also stepped up efforts to strengthen people-to-people relations with Nepal. For instance,  Himalayan Airlines resumed its direct flight between Kathmandu and Beijing this week following a three-year interval caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. According to the Nepali Embassy in China, direct flight between Kathmandu and Beijing, which takes place every Saturday, will play a significant role in promoting tourism, and socio-economic and cultural relations between the two countries. Also this week, a Sichuan Airlines charter flight arrived at the Pokhara International Airport this week, making it the first international flight to land at Nepal’s third international airport since its inauguration in January.  This week Nepal-China Friendship Dragon Boat Race Festival was organized in Pokhara where Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song said that it is an implementation of China’s Global Civilization Initiative (GCI). WeChat Pay, a mobile payment service run by China’s tech giant Tencent, was launched in Pokhara, while Tencent is joining hands with Nepal’s NMB Bank to launch the service. All these developments within a short period of time indicate China’s softer approach toward the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led government.  Prime Minister Dahal himself is likely to visit China later this year to further cement the Nepal-China ties. Dahal visited India from May 31-June 3 this year. Key visits 

• Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister Narayan Kaji Shrestha’s China visit
• Minister for Commerce and Industry Ramesh Rijal’s China visit
• Chairman of National Assembly Ganesh Timalsina’s China visit
• Former speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota’s China visit
• A four-member delegation of CPC visited Kathmandu
• Wang Xiaohui, CPC Secretary of the Sichuan province, visited Kathmandu

Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah faces a contempt of court case for a social media post denouncing Patan High Court’s interim order to allow the screening of ‘Adipurush’, an Indian film based on epic Hindu mythology ‘Ramayan’. Earlier, Shah had banned the screening of the film, raising objection to one of the lines that he claimed portrayed ‘Janaki’ (goddess Sita) as India’s daughter. However, it was ironic enough that Shah, who is also a rapper, was resorting to such a thing as censorship, and when his mayoral injunction was removed by the court of law, he decided to call Nepali government and courts “slaves” of India. Shah lit a tinderbox of controversy over a film and when things didn’t go his way, he turned it into a matter of ‘sovereignty’ and ‘independence’. Many say it is not the mayor who should be wielding the sword of censorship, that there is the Censor Board of Nepal. But the board gave the film its green light without removing the “controversial” dialogue. Nationalism is a popular ideology right now, and Mayor Shah seems to be cashing on it. Earlier this month when there was a controversy over the ‘Akhand Bharat’ mural inside India’s new parliament building, he had the map of ‘greater Nepal’ placed in his office. Many people praised Shah for this, saying that unlike the government of Nepal, the mayor had the courage to send a reply to India’s ‘Akhand Bharat’ mural. After much public criticism, the government finally sought clarification from India regarding the map mural. In the case of ‘Adipurush’ too, many people celebrated Mayor Shah’s decision to ban its screening and criticized the government for not even raising a peep. Shah’s historic mayoral election victory as an independent candidate reflected Kathmandu voters' frustration toward political parties. After coming to power, Shah performed many tasks that his predecessors could not. For instance, he dismantled illegally built structures around the city, improved road condition, brought transparency to municipal works, and took initiatives to preserve ancient heritages. He was rightly praised by the members of public for being a man of action. The only area where Shah and his office faced criticism was the decision to remove landless squatters from public land and indiscriminately seize the goods of street vendors. Some see his gentrification drive as hostile toward the poor. But his supporters continue to see him as an outsider maverick. Mayor Shah recognizes the deep-seated frustration of his supporters toward traditional political parties, so every now and then he panders to this frustration by taking jibes at the parties, leaders and government ministers. A few months ago he decided to stop collecting garbage from Singhadurbar, where most of the federal ministries lie, for non-cooperation with the city office for management of waste. As the issue grabbed media attention, Shah took to his social media saying to the effect that the ministers who work inside Singhadurbar must be disposed of to Sisdol landfill site first in order for Kathmandu to become a clean city. Naturally, his statement struck a chord with his supporters. More recently, when the government decided to announce the revival of Constituency Development Fund, Mayor Shah once again took a dig at lawmakers by comparing their status as that of municipal ward chairpersons. But it is one thing to criticize the government and another to brazenly refuse to follow a court’s order. This is not the first time Mayor Shah’s decision has landed in court. Recently, a team of municipal police shut down an education fair, which led the organizer to knock on the door of Patan High Court. The court then issued an interim order paving the way for the organizer to resume the fair. But the court order concerning the screening of ‘Adipurush’ has caused much controversy, as Mayor Shah has not only tried to undermine the sanctity of the court but of democracy itself. In his tweet related to his defiance of the court order, there are more than 1,000 replies, and the majority of them have advised Mayor Shah to accept the court’s order even if it does not feel right. His followers have cautioned him not to go against the court order. Then there are those who are of the view that major political parties that are running the country for over three decades have been flouting the court orders all the time, and it is not right to point the finger only at Shah. Former Supreme Court justice Balaram KC says Mayor Shah should have maintained restraint but what he wrote on his social media should not constitute contempt of court. He adds the controversy should have been settled by the court by inviting the two sides for discussion. Major political parties and their leaders are afraid of speaking against Shah, because they fear that criticizing the Kathmandu mayor will result in a public backlash. Instead, he is being praised by parties carrying a nationalist agenda. CPN-UML leader Bhim Rawal has defended Shah, saying that the court order shows that nationalism has become weak. He has written on his social media that all the state institutions such as legislative, judiciary, and executive should stand in favor of national interests. Similarly, Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal Chairman Kamal Thapa has said while some of Mayor Shah’s working style could be controversial, his heart is in the right place. KC, the former Supreme Court justice, says Mayor Shah enjoys unquestionable support, courtesy of major parties’ decades long failure to change. His ‘nationalist’ posturing has only solidified his position. There is no doubt that Mayor Shah has overwhelming support, but he should be careful not to let the fame and popularity get to his head. Rash actions and misplaced attention are not what his supporters want from him. With all the accolades and support, Shah is in a position where his actions and conducts are hardly seen with a critical lens. It is a dangerous position to be in when there is no one to tell him right from wrong.  

Earlier this Monday, some fringe communist parties announced the formation of Socialist Front Nepal, a loose network of “like-minded” political forces.  It comprises the CPN (Maoist Center), the Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party, CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Netra Bikram Chand-led CPN Maoist. Together they announced plans to form and expand the front at the provincial and local levels as well.  Political observers see the latest communist front as a tactic to boost the number of votes in the next election, as their individual presence across the country and their organizational strength are in tatters.   Leading the front is the Maoist Center of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, which won just 32 seats in the federal parliament in the 2022 general elections. Next up are the Madhav Kumar Nepal-led Unified Socialist, which failed to even secure a national party status winning only 10 seats under first-past-the-post voting category and zero under the proportional representation system; Yadav’s JSP, which has 12 seats in the federal parliament; and Chand’s Maoist party, which did not contest the elections.  The key purpose of the front is to make collective bargaining for power with either the Nepali Congress or the CPN-UML, two largest parties in parliament.   According to some leaders, the front is even planning to fight the next elections under a common symbol by forging an alliance with the NC or the UML. If the alliance plan did not work, the front is even willing to contest the polls as a single political force.  It is also noteworthy that the ‘Socialist Front’ has been announced at a time when mistrust is rising between the ruling Maoist party and its coalition partners, particularly the NC. Ruling party insiders say the announcement of the communist alliance has further fueled the mistrust between the two ruling parties.  As  Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat of the NC designed this year’s budget largely in his party’s favor, parties including the JSP and Unified Socialist are said to be unhappy. Unified Socialist’s senior leader Nepal has already warned that his party will not help the government endorse the budget if some of his party’s demands are not addressed. JSP’s Yadav too has been talking about amending the budget, saying that there was no serious discussion among the coalition partners regarding the budget. It is not just the Unified Socialist and the JSP that have objected to the budget.  The CK Raut-led Janamat Party, which is not part of the ‘Socialist Front’, has also said that if the budget is not amended, the party will withdraw its support to the government.  These developments clearly show the growing dissatisfaction inside the ruling coalition. By forming the front of communist parties, Prime Minister Dahal meanwhile is trying to show that he has grown powerful, against the narrative that the current coalition is weak. By leading the front, he wants to show that  even with just 32 seats in parliament, he has a strong support of fringe communist parties to go head to head with both the NC and the UML. The NC views the formation of the ‘Socialist Front’ as Dahal’s ploy to put pressure on the party into compromising with a collective of fringe forces displaying a common front.  The formation of the front also coincides with the growing communication between the NC and the UML. The second-rung leaders of both parties are exploring ways to work together, including the formation of a new government. However, most NC leaders insist that there is no possibility of the current coalition breaking down. One NC leader told Apex on condition of anonymity that if the current coalition breaks down, the party risks losing power both at the center and provinces, just like it did right after the 2022 general elections when the Maoist Center and the UML decided to form a government.  He added that there is a good chemistry between NC President Deuba and Prime Minister Dahal of the Maoist Center, a scenario which he cannot imagine with KP Oli of the UML.  But there are also those in the NC who do not rule out the possibility of the NC-UML coalition—that is if it ensures government stability for at least five years.  Meanwhile, it is in the paramount interest of the UML to come to power in order to stop its cadres and supporters deserting to other political forces like the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party.   If the UML were to return to power at the center and provinces, leaders say it could re-energize the party organization.  There is also a growing dissatisfaction within the NC over the performance of the Maoist-led government. Some Congress leaders are concerned that the party’s image will tarnish if the government fails to deliver.  Arrests of senior NC and UML leaders over the fake Bhutanese refugee scam have also  helped bring the two parties closer. According to a Congress leader, the party's senior member and former minister, Bal Krishna Khand, would not have been arrested had the home minister been from the NC.   There are internal and external reasons that could undermine the current ruling coalition. Observers say the formation of ‘Socialist Front’ has further shaken the structural integrity of the NC-Maoist partnership, while the UML looks on, from the sidelines with bated breath.     

After months of frosty relations, the US and China this week held talks at the high level. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described his talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang as “candid and substantive”. It was said that the two sides emphasized the need of direct and regular communication to prevent the further conflict. “I would expect additional visits by senior US officials to China over the coming weeks. Washington welcomes further visits by Chinese officials to the United States,” Blinken said after his China visit, indicating that the US-China relations will improve in the coming days. One of the key agreements between two countries was resuming the military-to-military relationship. In the meeting with Blinken, Xi assured that China respects American interests and does not seek to challenge or displace the US. In the same vein, Xi told Blinken that the US must not hurt China’s legitimate rights and interests. According to Chinese media, Blinken assured that the US does not support Taiwan independence, one of the major points of friction between the two countries. In August 2022, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, infuriating Beijing no end. In February this year, the US-China relationship reached yet another low after a spy balloon released by China was found over US territory. The balloon incident led to the cancellation of Blinken’s planned visit to China. The two countries seem to have cleared the air between them during Blinken’s trip to Beijing. The US and China also discussed the Russia-Ukraine war during Blinken’s visit. America wants to make sure that China does not provide weapons to Russia. Another major development of this week was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US. As the US relations with China and Russia stand on shaky ground, it has stepped up engagement with India. US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have already been meeting fairly frequently on international platforms. Regarding Modi’s visit, India’s Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar said that it is a visit on which there is a genuine and widespread deep interest in the United States. Among other several issues, the key highlight of Modi’s visit is building defense industrial cooperation roadmap. Over the past few years, India’s relationship with China has been intense due to the border clash. Put simply, India needs the US support to keep China at bay. And though the US and India do not have the same policy on South Asian countries, they are on the same page when it comes to containing China’s influence in the region. China’s growing influence in South Asian countries has become a cause for concern for both New Delhi and Washington. Observers say the Biden administration introduced the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) in 2022 with the express intent of curbing China’s growing influence in the South Asian region. IPS states about supporting India’s continued rise. The US recognizes India as a like-minded partner and leader in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, active in and connected to Southeast Asia. Implications for Nepal Though Nepal is not an influential player in international politics, the relationship between India-US and US-China obviously matters to the country. The ripple effects of the US-China confrontation has already been felt in Kathmandu over the past few years. Unlike in the past, China is more concerned over the US-assisted development projects in Nepal like the Millennium Challenge Corporation. Meanwhile, the US is also keenly observing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) taking shape in Nepal. Both the US and China have also expressed concern about Nepal’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war and other international issues. As a buffer state between China and India, Nepal’s strategic positioning is of great importance for Beijing, New Delhi and Washington. During Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s India visit this month, the Indian side had raised the issue of growing Chinese influence in Nepal and its security implications for India. Dahal and Modi also discussed the entire regional environment, Chinese engagement in South Asia and how it is affecting the Nepal-India relationship. Dr Khadga KC, professor of international relations, says the recent visits by high-level American officials to China shows that the US is keen to enhance cooperation with China amid the competition on several issues. If the Washington-Beijing relationship improves, he says it would be easy for Nepal to conduct its own foreign policy. Nepal does not wish to see any confrontation or proxy war between an emerging superpower and established superpower, he adds. Binoj Basnyat, former Nepal Army official and strategic affairs expert, says Blinkent’s China trip and Modi’s US visit offer two different geopolitical dimensions. While Blinkent’s Beijing trip is more of a diplomatic engagement for both the domestic and international security environment with no compromise on the strategic goals, Modi’s US visit is important for the strategic balance of the South Asian region and the world in addressing China as a potential threat, he says. Basnyat adds that India and the US have similar interests when it comes to China, and such a geostrategic environment is a challenge to a small nation like Nepal, which cannot afford to be a playground nor pick a side. Pranab Kharel, political analyst, says the dynamics of US-India relations has direct implications for South Asia as both the countries have their respective weight in the region. He says the ongoing US visit of Modi should be read as the continuing effort of both the countries to keep each other in confidence. Kharel says that the US visit of the Indian prime minister is also taking place at a time when the Indians have positioned themselves separately from the Americans in the Ukraine crisis. India continues to import Russian crude oil in order to meet its energy demands. Therefore, when one wishes to contextualize the implications of the visit on Nepal, these key facts should not be missed, says Kharel. Furthermore, adds Kharel, the energy infrastructure being built in Nepal under MCC has India onboard, which indicates that the US-India dynamics are multifaceted and the implication on a country like Nepal is just one of those manifestations. Nepal’s Prime Minister Dahal visited India earlier this month. He is preparing to visit China, possibly in August, and will also likely visit the US. This shows Nepal is already in the radar of big powers.  

Foreign Ministry officials have begun homework to arrange the date and agenda for Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s China visit. A ministry source said the Nepali side has proposed the first-week of August as a tentative date for Dahal’s China visit, but nothing has been confirmed yet. The key agenda of the trip will be accelerating the connectivity projects as well as exploring new areas of cooperation between the two countries. The upgradation of Kathmandu-Rasuwagadhi and Kathmandu-Tatopani are already underway. Prime Minister Dahal is expected to request the Chinese side to complete those projects at the earliest. Nepal’s Ambassador to China Bishnu Pukar Shrestha said better connectivity is a prerequisite to enhance collaboration in trade, investment and other areas. “We are equally focusing on railway connectivity, accelerating the construction of transmission lines and tunnels,” he said about Dahal’s imminent Beijing visit. Tourism is another vital area where the two countries have been focusing of late. In this regard, Sichuan Airlines of China is set to conduct an inaugural flight to Pokhara International Airport on Wednesday. Shrestha said talks are underway with the Chinese side to increase the flights between the cities of the two countries. “These initiatives will boost Nepal’s tourism industry,” he added. Besides, the two sides are also holding talks on bringing new Chinese agricultural technology to Nepal. Prime Minister Dahal’s China visit is expected to make some progress in this regard. If Chinese agricultural technology is adopted, it will help Nepali farmers increase their agricultural output. Prime Minister Dahal has also expressed his desire to finalize at least one project under the Belt and Road Initiative. A Nepal government source said both Nepal and China want to give the message that the BRI project is moving ahead, be it under grant or heavily concessional loan scheme. “We have finalized the key priority areas of cooperation and there has been some progress as well,” said Ambassador Shrestha. He added that the Chinese side has also been emphasizing the speedy implementation of agreements reached between two countries during Xi Jinping’s 2019 Nepal visit. China has of late stepped up its engagement with a wider section of Nepali society. Over the past few weeks, delegations from the CPN (Maoist Center) and the CPN-UML have visited China. Similarly, Chairman of National Assembly Ganesh Prasad Timalsina paid an official visit to China and held talks with Wang Huning, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. Huning told Timalsina that the two sides should synergize development strategies, maintain the political foundation for the growth of bilateral relations, expand exchanges and cooperation, and add new impetus to the respective development and revitalization of the two countries. Key priorities

•       Road
•       Railway
•       Tunnel
•       Transmission lines
•       Agriculture
•       Tourism
•       Security cooperation
•       Fertilizer
•       People-to-people exchanges