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Nepal's journey through democracy has been marked by the complex coalition politics in a hung parliament. This phenomenon, where no single party secures a majority, presents formidable obstacles to achieving sustainable development and effective governance.

Hung Parliament and Political Instability

The recurring hung parliament has been deeply woven into Nepal's democratic fabric. The nation’s multiparty landscape, encompassing diverse ideologies and regional interests, complicates the government formation process. Despite periods of single-party dominance since the political change of 1990, political maneuvering and dissent frequently lead to hung parliaments and subsequent instability.

Between November 1994 and May 1999, Nepal faced significant instability due to its first hung parliament. This led to the outbreak of decade-long Maoist insurgency. Although the insurgency ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) on November 21, 2006, political instability has persisted in the country.

The 1999 general election, held amidst the shadow of insurgency, saw the Nepali Congress secure a comfortable majority in parliament, winning 111 out of 205 seats. Despite this, the political instability continued in the country, marked by brief tenures of three prime ministers.

Following the signing of CPA, the 2008 general election elected the first Constituent Assembly tasked with drafting a new constitution. However, the Constituent Assembly lacked a single-party majority, with the Maoists securing 120 seats out of 240 under the first-past-the-post system. The proportional representation system, accounting for 335 seats, further complicated the Constituent Assembly's dynamics, leading to a hung assembly plagued by political maneuvering and ethical breaches.

Political instability persists in Nepal despite the eventual promulgation of the new constitution in 2015 by the second Constituent Assembly. The complexities of coalition politics, compounded by the governance and representation challenges, continue to shape the nation's democratic narrative to this day.

Causes of Political Instability

Proportional representation, which was introduced alongside the first-past-the-post system in Nepal's electoral system, aimed to foster inclusivity in the political landscape. However, this system has presented its own set of challenges for the country. Issues such as vote dispersion, coalition politics and regional dynamics have contributed to the complexity of governance. Additionally, criticisms of nepotism and electoral intricacies have exacerbated the situation.

Under the proportional representation system, 110 out of 275 seats in the House of Representatives are allocated based on the proportion of votes that political parties receive nationally or within specific electoral regions. This allows parties with significant overall support to secure representation in Parliament even if they do not win in individual constituencies.

The proportional representation system was introduced to address historical marginalization and ensure the representation of all segments of society in the legislative process. By providing a platform for smaller parties and minority groups, proportional representation aimed to enhance the inclusivity of Nepal's democracy. However, its implementation is becoming challenging due to concerns about political fragmentation, struggles with coalition governance, and allegations of nepotism in candidate selection 

After the recent general election, Nepal has seen another hung parliament. The trend of minority parties wielding disproportionate influence, alongside the perceived helplessness of larger parties, has disrupted democratic norms and contributed to economic setbacks in the country.

The Darker Side of Politics

The growing use of political influence to evade justice and perpetrate crime is a persistent challenge that plagues many societies. This issue arises when individuals or groups in positions of political power abuse their authority to manipulate legal processes, evade accountability and shield themselves or their associates from prosecution for criminal activities.

Interference in Legal Proceedings: Politically powerful individuals may exert pressure on law enforcement agencies, prosecutors, judges and other judicial bodies to manipulate investigations, delay legal proceedings, or influence judicial outcomes in their favor. This interference undermines the rule of law and erodes public trust in the justice system.

Corruption and Bribery: Politicians may engage in corrupt practices, such as bribery or extortion, to obstruct investigations, tamper with evidence, or secure favorable judgments. Corrupt alliances between politicians and criminal elements further exacerbate the problem, enabling organized crime networks to operate with impunity.

Political Patronage: Politicians may provide protection or patronage to criminal elements in exchange for political support, financial contributions or other benefits. This symbiotic relationship between politics and crime perpetuates a culture of impunity and undermines efforts to combat criminal activities.

Legal Loopholes and Immunity: Politicians may exploit legal loopholes or abuse their legislative powers to enact laws or policies that grant them immunity from prosecution or shield them from accountability for criminal behavior. This impunity emboldens individuals to engage in illicit activities without fear of consequences.

Manipulation of Public Perception: Politically influential individuals or their allies may attempt to manipulate public opinion through propaganda, misinformation, or media control to portray themselves as victims or deflect attention away from their criminal activities. This manipulation can undermine public awareness of the gravity of the crimes committed and impede efforts to hold perpetrators accountable.

Way Forward

It has become necessary to address the issue of hung parliament to ensure stable governance and democratic functioning in Nepal. One potential solution could involve reconsidering the electoral system, either adopting solely the first-past-the-post or proportional representation method. Maintaining both systems simultaneously risks perpetuating instability. Swift action is essential to mitigate the risks posed by hung parliaments before they escalate further. Remember, you cannot have your cake and eat it too.

National politics is becoming increasingly unpredictable, with doubts arising about the stability of the five-party coalition government. A significant blow came with the Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal experiencing a split, as seven lawmakers and 30 central committee members formed a new party under Ashok Rai.

The Election Commission on Monday issued a certificate of political party to the Rai faction of JSP as per the Political Party Act. However, there are no clear legal provisions regarding the party formation process in case an existing party splits. 

In 2021, the government led by the Nepali Congress had issued an ordinance to amend the Act to ease the split of political parties. Based on that ordinance Madhav Kumar Nepal and Mahantha Thakur formed new parties, the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, after splitting from the UML and JSP, respectively. The ordinance has since been repealed. 

The establishment faction of the JSP led by Upendra Yadav has argued that since the ordinance is no longer in effect, the new party under Rai cannot be legitimate.

Meanwhile, those lawmakers who have broken away from JSP claim that their actions were prompted by the intention to preserve the current coalition, as party Chairman Yadav, also the deputy prime minister and health minister, was considering withdrawing support from the government to form a new one. 

The latest development signifies the beginning of further rifts within both large and small parties, either to maintain or challenge the current government. The situation echoes the turbulence of the early 1990s, characterized by party splits, political maneuvering, and the manipulation of lawmakers. 

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his primary coalition partner KP Sharma Oli of CPN-UML are focused on retaining power or engineering government changes. 

JSP leaders say Prime Minister Dahal and CPN-UML KP Sharma Oli played significant roles in orchestrating the split to prevent the current coalition from slipping into a minority position in Parliament. Even if Yadav were to withdraw support, the current coalition is likely to retain a comfortable majority, with the assurance of the Rai-led JSP to support the Dahal-led government.

Another coalition partner, CPN (Unified Socialist), has also expressed discontent with the current arrangement, with its Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal publicly stating concerns about the government's stability. His recent remarks about certain leaders' reluctance to see him as prime minister hint at underlying tensions within this coalition. Nepal's dissatisfaction with provincial-level governance and appointments also suggests a deeper rift within the coalition.  

With a split in JSP, the Unified Socialist faces the challenge of keeping the party intact. There are suspicions that to prevent the current coalition from slipping into minority, Dahal and Oli could try to divide the Unified Socialist as well. 

The initial formation of the current coalition on March 4 saw Prime Minister Dahal sever ties with the NC in favor of incorporating UML and RSP. Within months of its formation, another specter of coalition split looms large.  The future remains uncertain, with no clear indication of how many more changes in government will precede the 2027 national elections. 

Nepal and Yadav are said to be in talks with the main opposition, Nepali Congress, to form a new government. There are reports that NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, Yadav, and Nepal have reached an agreement to lead a new government on a rotational basis until the next elections. 

The Nepali Congress, particularly Deuba and his supporters, are actively seeking to dismantle the Dahal-led government, proposing Unified Socialist Chairman Nepal as a potential prime ministerial candidate. However, opinions within the Nepali Congress vary regarding the formation of a new coalition, with some advocating for an alliance with JSP, RSP, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and other fringe parties.

Deuba and his supporters were working to secure 138 seats (NC-88, RPP-14, JSP-12, CPN Unified Socialist-10, Janatmat-6, Nagarik Unmukti-4 and Loktantrik Samajbadi-4) required to form a new coalition. But with the JSP split, the NC is not in the position to secure the majority votes. 

Efforts to stabilize the government are also ongoing, with discussions between NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala and UML Chairman Oli about a potential collaboration between the two largest parties. However, opinions within UML are divided on this matter, with many opposing cooperation with the NC, their main competitor.

While Dahal and Oli may succeed in preserving the coalition, there is still risk of it falling into minority. Home Minister and RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichaane is under pressure to resign and facilitate the investigation against him for his alleged involvement in embezzlement of cooperatives money. If the government agrees to form a parliamentary probe panel as demanded by the NC, Lamichhane will have to resign. In that context, it is not certain whether the RSP will remain in the government. Calls within RSP to exit the government are growing, particularly following disappointing results in the Ilam-2 by-elections. 

The upcoming budget session of the House of Representatives, scheduled for May 10, adds further uncertainty. The NC has threatened to obstruct parliamentary proceedings unless a panel is formed to investigate cooperative scandals, potentially complicating the government's ability to present the budget. 

In the Parliament session on Thursday, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal presented a list of factors that led him to break the alliance with the Nepali Congress, giving continuity to the blame-game between the Congress and the CPN (Maoist Center). According to Dahal, though cadres of his party, the CPN (Maoist Center), fully supported NC candidates in elections, the level of support from NC toward Maoist candidates was far less. 

Our candidate from Koshi province got defeated in National Assembly elections as NC betrayed, he said. Another reason, according to PM Dahal, is the outcome of a recent Mahasamiti meeting of the NC, which censored the pre-poll alliance. He also questioned NC’s commitment to the Constitution, pointing that some NC leaders had spoken in favor of a Hindu state during the Mahasamiti meeting. 

Dahal objected to what he called a ‘negative portrayal’ of the Maoist insurgency in NC’s official documents and insufficient support from the ruling coalition partner for a smooth functioning of the government under his leadership. On its part, NC has accused Dahal of unilaterally breaking the ruling alliance without citing any substantial reason. 

Sharing decisions taken at the NC’s parliamentary party meeting on Thursday, Nepali Congress chief whip Ramesh Lekhak accused the Maoist Center of breaking the ruling coalition, though the Congress had always remained committed to it. 

Lekhak recalled that Congress had formed alliances with various parties for the protection of the constitution and consolidation of democracy, and contested elections accordingly, hinting at the possibility of such alliance in the coming days. 

The meeting held under NC president and parliamentary party leader Sher Bahadur Deuba discussed the evolving political scenario and decided to withdraw support given to Maoist Chair Dahal during the formation of the erstwhile government. 

Speaking in the Parliament, Lekhak said Dahal was betraying political parties repeatedly, in a pointer to stressed relations between the erstwhile coalition partners after the formation of a new ruling dispensation.

For quite some time now, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been vocal about his intentions to revamp his Cabinet, aiming to oust underperforming ministers and those embroiled in controversies. Specifically, Dahal seeks to remove Health Minister Mohan Basnet, who has been mired in various controversies, and Minister of Physical Infrastructure and Transport Prakash Jwala, whose negligence resulted in the deaths of two youths in Balkumari. However, coalition leaders Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress and Madhav Kumar Nepal of the CPN (Unified Socialist)have exerted pressure on Dahal to refrain from making such decisions. The main opposition, CPN-UML, is also urging Dahal to dismiss ministers entangled in controversies.

The prime minister is apparently dissatisfied with the performances of Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat and Foreign Minister NP Saud, both from the Deuba camp of the Nepali Congress. But Deuba is reluctant to recall them due to the intra-party dynamics. The Dahal-led government is facing widespread criticism for its failure to improve the country’s economy, create jobs, curb youth migration abroad, and enhance service delivery. Acknowledging these shortcomings, Dahal repeatedly asserts that he will bring about changes through Cabinet reshuffling, but faces resistance from his coalition partners.

Another point of contention between the primary coalition partners, Congress and Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Center), is their respective positions on the candidate for the chairman of the National Assembly (NA). With the current chairman, who is from the main opposition UML, retiring this month, both parties are vying for the position. The NC has already communicated to the Maoist party that its senior leader Krishna Prasad Sitaula, who won the NA election last month, should be elected as the new chair, a position that Prime Minister Dahal had initially supported. But of late, Dahal’s party has taken a hard stance on the issue due to a couple of reasons. Firstly, the NC voters did not vote for the Maoist candidates in the Koshi provinces during the NA election, and secondly, the recently concluded NC’s Mahasamiti meeting portrayed Maoist insurgency in a negative light.

Prime Minister Dahal is under pressure from his own party not to relinquish the claim for the NA chair. Although the Maoist party has decided to field its own candidate, leaders say Dahal will most likely support Sitaula for the NA chair. 

Maoist leaders fear that the party will be left without any representatives in the Constitutional Council if the NA leadership is handed over to the NC.

After the NA election last month, the Maoists, which is the third-largest party in the House of Representatives, emerged as the largest party in the National Assembly. In the recently concluded party’s Standing Committee, there were strong voices advocating for the party to claim the chairmanship of the NA, which led to the formal decision on the same issue. 

The Maoist decision may also have been partly influenced by the NC’s Mahasamiti meeting, where the majority of representatives opposed the electoral alliance with the Maoist party, though the outcomes of the meeting did not create any obstacles for the party to forge an electoral alliance in the next local and national elections.

A senior Maoist leader says, “We should not expect that one alliance lasts forever; there could be changes.”

Though the current coalition may not be in any significant danger, the gap between the two coalition partners is widening by the day. It appears that both Deuba and Dahal are committed to the continuation of the current coalition, but there is growing unease within both NC and Maoist parties. Both Dahal and Deuba are extra cautious that the current differences between the two parties should not create problems in the coalition.

They sit together even if some minor issues arise to maintain an environment of trust. For instance, when Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Thapa took a firm stance in the party’s Mahasamiti meeting to endorse the proposal that the party would not forge a pre-poll alliance, Deuba and his close aide Purna Bahadur Khadka personally assured Dahal that the coalition will remain intact. Inside the NC, senior leader Shekhar Koirala continuously asserts that he is working to change the coalition, while Thapa has taken a middle ground that the party should remain committed to the current coalition but should not forge an electoral alliance in the next general elections. 

Meanwhile, Deuba and leaders close to him argue that the party should take a pragmatic approach because if the party leaves the government, the UML will come to the rescue of the Dahal-led government, ultimately paving the way for the left alliance. And, in case the left alliance is formed again, the party could face an electoral defeat like it did in the 2017 elections.

However, the NC rank and file are not happy with the alliance, as reflected in the party’s Mahasamiti meeting where they stated that the alliance with the Maoists has eroded the party’s ideology and support base. Inside the NC, there are growing voices that the party is suffering due to the non-performance of the NC as a key coalition. 

A NC senior leader says, “On the one hand, our cadres at the local level have not felt the party’s presence in the government, on the other hand, the Dahal-led government is becoming unpopular, but people are pointing fingers at us because Dahal remains in power.”

Similarly, inside the Maoist party, there are growing demands that the alliance with NC should be reviewed as vote transfer has emerged as a big problem. Though Dahal seems committed to continuing with the current coalition, senior leaders inside the party believe that it would be natural to form a left alliance. For now, it seems that both Deuba and Dahal, who have a strong command in the party, would manage the differences, but it is uncertain whether they will be able to do so for a long time.

Champa Devi Karki of CPN (Maoist Center) was almost sure to win the National Assembly election as one of the ruling coalition candidates from Koshi province. But she lost the Jan 25 vote to CPN-UML candidate Rukmini Koirala. 

Maoist leaders now claim that Karki lost because of the betrayal of trust by the Nepali Congress. They say although the Maoist party voted for NC candidate Krishna Prasad Sitaula, there was a significant crossing of the floor  by the NC voters. 

Though the Maoists emerged as the largest party in the NA after the election held to select 19 upper house members, the party is unhappy with the poll outcome from Koshi.

It is said that NC senior leader Shekhar Koirala, who is earnestly working to break the Maoist-Congress alliance, influenced the voting pattern of the NC. Earlier, the Koirala faction had switched to the UML to elect Kedar Bahadur Karki as chief minister after NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba fielded his candidate. It was later revealed that there was a secret understanding between Koirala and Deuba in the appointment of chief minister, which miffed the Maoist party. 

That was the first instance which sowed the seed of discord inside the ruling coalition. The latest election betrayal in Koshi province has deepened the mistrust between the Maoists and NC.  

"We have reached a point where we have to seriously review our alliance with the Nepali Congress,” says Maoist leader Barsha Man Pun. “In every election, we have been voting for NC candidates, and in return, we are being betrayed. The Koshi province election has forced us to think whether the current coalition is beneficial for us.”  

What happened in Koshi province is not the only reason why the Maoist and NC are growing apart. It began with the arrest of senior NC leader and former home minister Bal Krishna Khand in the fake Bhutanese refugee scandal.

Many NC leaders suspect that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Center is weaponing corruption scandals against the NC leaders while overlooking the misdeeds of the leaders within his own party. 

NC senior leader Koirala has always been vocal about changing the current coalition and forging an alliance with the UML. Of late, more and more leaders are joining the chorus. They want to remove Dahal from power because they feel that his government has not been good to the NC. Even though the Maoist Center has only 32 seats in the House of Representatives, making it the third largest party, NC leaders believe the Maoist party is becoming overbearing in the government affairs — even bullying the NC and UML by opening investigation into past corruption scandals involving their leaders.   

Meanwhile, the Maoist leaders claim it is the NC that has been dictating the government’s decision-making process including in the foreign policy realm. A senior Maoist leader says the NC has tied the hands of Prime Minister Dahal, so that he is unable to make independent decisions. 

The Maoist party is particularly displeased with Minister for Foreign Affairs Narayan Prakash Saud from the NC. “The Foreign Minister has failed to strike a balance among the three major powers because he and his party are biased towards India and the US.” 

During his China visit, Prime Minister Dahal made some commitments regarding the Belt and Road Initiatives and other projects, but there has been little to no follow through on those pledges. The Maoists blame the NC-led Foreign Ministry for this. 

Maoist leaders say Prime Minister Dahal wants to sign the BRI implementation plan at the earliest, but the foreign minister has not been cooperative.  

Some NC leaders believe that the only reason the NC-Maoist coalition has not fallen through is because Deuba wants to ensure a smooth transfer of power. They say the party president is of the belief that he can get to power only if Dahal is allowed to remain in power for two and a half years. 

Though there are strong voices inside the NC that the party should not forge an electoral alliance with Maoists in the next general elections, Deuba is of the view that without an alliance the NC alone cannot maintain the status of the largest party. 

However, Deuba does not see the similar prospect in forging an alliance with the UML. He is of the view that there cannot be an electoral partnership between first and second parties. The NC regards the UML, which has a strong organizational base, as a key election rival. 

In the past, the UML had even reached out to the NC, proposing an alliance deal between the two parties to ensure the government’s stability until the next elections. But Deuba was not keen to talk with the UML. 

As the Maoist-NC coalition teeters on the brink, the UML watches from the sidelines. UML Chairman Oli, who had previously made his mission to win a single party majority in the 2027 general elections, has been hinting at mid-term elections in recent days. Oli senses the simmering tension within the ruling coalition.

Prime Minister Dahal is likely to face more political challenges from his own coalition partner and the opposition in the days ahead. The UML and Rastriya Prajatantra Party are already planning to hit the streets against the government. The last thing Dahal wants is an unruly coalition.