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Two days after the violent clashes between security personnel and pro-monarchy protesters in Tinkune, the government on Sunday reduced the number of security personnel for the then King Gyandendra Shah.

According to Kumar Upadhyay, spokesperson of the Armed Police Force, the government deployed security personnel to the VIPs as per the procedure made by the government.

Ten policemen of the Armed Police Force deployed under the command of Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) have been called back. 

Of the 25 police personnel deployed for the protection of Shah, only 15 are currently in place.

After the departure from Narayanhiti, the government has been providing the facility of security personnel along with housing for the royal family.

According to a source at the Armed Police Force, the security team deployed for family members will also be called back.

Two persons including a photo journalist of Avenues TV died during the protest.

The pro-monarchist groups organized the demonstration, demanding restoration of monarchy and Hindu Kingdom.

A 'Hashtag Arrest Gyanendra' campaign has been launched on social media demanding the arrest and action against the then King Gyanendra Shah.

There have been demands on social media that Gyanendra Shah be held accountable and bring him to justice for the violent activities that took place in the name of protests in Kathmandu on Friday, demanding the restoration of the monarchy.

A photo journalist and a protester were killed and many others were injured during the demonstration of pro-monarchy in Tinkune yesterday.

Dozens of commercial buildings, media outlets and political party offices were vandalized and set on fire.

Claiming that the then King Gyanendra Shah was the mastermind behind the violent protest, a campaign has been launched on social media demanding his arrest.

Social media users have launched a hashtag campaign on Saturday demanding Shah's arrest.

Police have already arrested Rastriya Prajatantra Party leaders Dhawal Shumsher Rana and Rabindra Mishra among others for their alleged involvement in inciting the crowd and arson and vandalism.

It has been nearly two weeks since former King Gyanendra Shah re-emerged into the spotlight of national politics. His resurgence has sparked a wave of criticism and aggressive rhetoric from leaders of major political parties, including former prime ministers, who have resorted to harsh and uncivil language to discredit him. Meanwhile, some politicians have taken to the streets to counter potential royalist protests in the Kathmandu Valley.

On March 9, approximately 13,000 people escorted Shah from the airport to his private residence, marking a significant show of support. Since then, two distinct narratives have emerged in national politics. First, the former king appears to be attempting to establish a unified command to launch Kathmandu-centric protests, appointing Nava Raj Subedi, a veteran of the Panchayat era, to lead the campaign. However, despite Subedi’s broad acceptance, pro-monarchy forces have refused to rally under his leadership. Subedi, previously associated with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, resigned from his position to take on this new role.

Shah’s immediate challenge is to unite all monarchy supporters under a single banner. Encouraged by the March 9 turnout, he is preparing to tour other parts of the country to garner further support for the monarchy. However, there are indications that the government may restrict his activities if he becomes more politically active, potentially infringing on his constitutional right to free movement.

On the other hand, major political parties are mobilizing their cadres to demonstrate their strength in the streets. The CPN-UML has been engaged in serious deliberations about Gyanendra’s plans to return to power, with senior leaders discussing the potential backing of royalist forces by external actors. The CPN (Maoist Center) and other fringe parties are also preparing to counter royalist movements, signaling that Kathmandu is likely to witness increased protests in the coming days. Nepal’s highly politicized civil society has aligned with mainstream political parties to oppose any potential revival of the monarchy.

Amidst this political tension, pro-monarchy groups have spread misinformation suggesting that the Nepali Army supports the restoration of the monarchy. In response, the army has reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding Nepal’s independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national unity in accordance with the constitution. The army’s statement comes amid growing calls from royalist factions for the military to play a role in reinstating the monarchy.

There are also murmurs within political and diplomatic circles that certain forces are fueling pro-monarchy protests not to restore the king but to destabilize Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. Analysts suggest that increased street protests could pave the way for a national unity government, potentially forcing Oli to step down. Reports indicate that Nepali Congress (NC) and Maoist leaders are already discussing the formation of such a government, arguing that only a strong administration can preserve the current political system. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is reportedly working to remove Oli from power.

Meanwhile, the coalition government formed by the NC and UML had pledged to amend the constitution, but progress has stalled. However, the NC has taken some steps in this direction. The party’s Professional and Intellectual Department conducted consultations across all seven provinces on constitutional amendments and submitted its report to Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The report recommends declaring Nepal a Hindu state in the constitution’s preamble, a move that contradicts the party’s current stance. While support for a Hindu state is growing within the party, there is no significant backing for the monarchy. The report also suggests reducing administrative costs associated with the federal structure, ensuring 50 percent representation of women in state mechanisms, and prioritizing geographical factors over population in electoral constituency delimitation, including reducing the number of constituencies.

In international developments, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba visited New Delhi to participate in the Raisina Dialogue, where she held bilateral talks with foreign ministers from several countries, including India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. Nepal is preparing to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the Sagarmatha Dialogue, and Deuba was expected to extend the invitation during her visit. The Nepali government is focused on attracting high-level dignitaries from both India and China.

In another development, the United States has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its partnership with Nepal. A State Department spokesperson stated, “While programs that do not align with American interests have been terminated, the United States remains committed to strengthening its partnership with the Government of Nepal.” The spokesperson emphasized that the US is dedicated to supporting Nepal’s sovereignty by bolstering democratic resilience and promoting economic opportunities. However, negotiations between Nepal and the US have yet to resume following the withdrawal of US support. Additionally, Nepal’s embassy in Washington remains vacant, as Ambassador Lok Darshan Regmi has yet to assume office five months after his appointment. Experts suggest that due to Nepal’s strategic geopolitical location, the Trump administration is likely to continue its aid to counterbalance the influence of India and China.

On the economic front, Nepal’s public debt has increased by 9.93 percent to Rs 2,676.03bn over the first eight months of the current fiscal year, according to the Public Debt Management Office (PDMO). This represents an increase of Rs 241.93bn since mid-July 2023.

There is some positive news as well. Policy reforms introduced by the government through ordinances are beginning to yield results. Nepal recorded its highest foreign investment commitments in the current fiscal year during the eighth month (mid-February to mid-March), with the Department of Industry approving Rs 17.79bn for 40 projects. These projects are expected to create 833 new jobs, bringing the total foreign investment commitments for the fiscal year to Rs 44.66bn across 427 projects. A recent study by the department identified policy shortcomings as the primary obstacle to higher foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, prompting the government to address these issues through recent ordinances.

In Nepal-China relations, Sichuan Airlines has launched its first international flight to Pokhara International Airport under regular commercial operations. Since its inauguration in January 2023, the airport has struggled financially, and the weekly flights by Sichuan Airlines are expected to provide some relief. Additionally, a business delegation from Sichuan has reached agreements with Pokhara, potentially fostering further economic collaboration.

On March 9, Tribhuvan International Airport witnessed a historic gathering as thousands of supporters welcomed former King Gyanendra Shah upon his return from Pokhara. The crowd, estimated at 14,000 by police, escorted the former King to his private residence, Nirmal Niwas, in a show of solidarity for the monarchy. Organized by pro-monarchist parties like the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (led by Rajendra Lingden) and Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal (led by Kamal Thapa), alongside Hindu outfits and businessman Durga Prasai, the event marked one of the largest monarchist demonstrations in recent years. Despite a lack of coordination among organizers, the turnout has energized monarchist forces, who are now planning more protests to push for the restoration of a ceremonial monarchy.

The rally was not just a show of support for the former King but also a reflection of growing dissatisfaction with the current political system. Many participants expressed frustration with the failure of political parties to address issues like corruption, unemployment, and poor governance. The monarchist movement, though fragmented, has gained momentum in recent years, with significant demonstrations in 2021 and 2023 drawing considerable attention from both domestic political parties and the international community. However, these protests have lacked a unified structure or leadership, with deep divisions among various groups hindering the emergence of a cohesive movement.

Interestingly, the protests have inadvertently united Nepal’s major political parties, who are now preparing counter-demonstrations to defend the republican system. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has warned against any attempts to undermine the constitutional setup, while CPN (Maoist Center) Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal is leading efforts to counter the royalist movement. Dahal has canceled all party programs to focus on organizing a Kathmandu-centric movement to protect the current republican system. The largest party, Nepali Congress, however, has not taken the protests seriously, with some members arguing that the growing support for monarchy reflects public dissatisfaction with the failure of political parties to deliver on their promises.

Meanwhile, Kulman Ghising, the managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), continues to dominate headlines. Despite facing scrutiny from the Energy Ministry and political pressure, Ghising remains a beloved figure for his role in ending Nepal’s chronic load-shedding crisis. This week, Energy Minister Deepak Khadka credited India for resolving the power crisis, downplaying Ghising’s contributions. However, Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa defended Ghising, emphasizing his impending retirement and the public’s overwhelming support for him. With Ghising’s popularity intact, the government appears hesitant to take any drastic action against him.

Ghising’s tenure at NEA has been marked by significant achievements, including the reduction of load-shedding hours and the improvement of the country’s power distribution system. His efforts have earned him widespread acclaim, but they have also made him a target for political maneuvering. During the recent elections, the CPN (Maoist Center) used Ghising’s achievements as a campaign tool, further complicating his position. Despite the challenges, Ghising’s legacy as a transformative leader in Nepal’s energy sector remains secure.

In another significant development, the cancellation of dozens of USAID-funded projects has sent shockwaves through Nepal’s development sectors, including health, education, agriculture, and democracy. The government is scrambling to address the gap, but political leadership remains silent on the issue. While India and China may step in to fill the void, their support is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss of US aid. With the UK also cutting foreign aid and Europe prioritizing defense spending, Nepal faces an uphill battle to secure alternative resources. As the US shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, Nepal may soon initiate talks to revive critical projects.

The cancellation of USAID projects has raised concerns about the future of Nepal’s development initiatives. Many of these projects were aimed at improving healthcare, education, and agricultural productivity, and their sudden termination has left a significant void. Government officials have started consultations on how to address the gap, but the lack of a clear strategy has left many stakeholders worried. The situation is further complicated by the geopolitical dynamics in the region, with India and China viewing the US presence in Nepal with suspicion.

On the domestic front, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, often criticized for neglecting provincial structures, is now engaging directly with provincial assemblies. This week, he addressed assemblies in Lumbini, Far-West, and Karnali, signaling a renewed commitment to federalism. Whether this marks a genuine shift in policy or a political maneuver remains to be seen. Oli’s engagement with provincial structures comes at a time when there is growing discontent with the central government’s handling of federalism. Many provincial leaders have accused the central government of undermining their authority and failing to allocate adequate resources.

Oli’s outreach to provincial assemblies is seen as an attempt to address these concerns and strengthen the federal structure. However, critics argue that his efforts are too little, too late, and that more concrete actions are needed to ensure the success of federalism in Nepal. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Oli’s engagement with provincial structures will lead to meaningful change or remain a symbolic gesture.

In the realm of diplomacy, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba is currently in India, where she is participating in the prestigious Raisina Dialogue. Alongside her diplomatic engagements, Deuba is expected to meet Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and extend an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the upcoming Sagarmatha Dialogue in Kathmandu. The Oli government is keen to strengthen ties with India, but an official invitation for PM Oli to visit India is still pending. As both nations explore the possibility of high-level visits, Nepal’s diplomatic efforts remain in the spotlight.

The Sagarmatha Dialogue, scheduled for May 16-18, is expected to bring together top leaders from across the region to discuss issues of mutual interest. The event is seen as an opportunity for Nepal to showcase its diplomatic prowess and strengthen its ties with neighboring countries. However, the success of the dialogue will depend on the participation of key leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Former King Gyanendra Shah arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday.

He was given a grand welcome by his supporters at the Tribhuvan International Airport.

Rastriya Prajatantra Party Chairman Rajendra Lingden among party leaders welcomed him at the domestic terminal.

Prior to welcoming him, pro-monarchy supporters staged a protest outside the airport.

Former king Gyanendra Shah took an oblique swipe at the major political parties’ failure to bring peace, stability and progress in the country by saying that unrest is increasing among the general public.

Addressing a program in Birgunj on Saturday, Shah said 15 years have passed since he abdicated the throne, and today “discontent, frustration, worry, and anger are prevalent everywhere.”  

Nepal’s centuries old monarchy ended with Shah as a result of the people’s movement of 2006-07 led by major political parties and the then Maoist rebel group, calling for a republic. Shah’s reign lasted for seven years from 2001 to 2008. 

 Shah claimed that he assumed the responsibility of the head of the state at a time when the country was going through a challenging phase. “Even in such difficult circumstances, I worked to avoid further destruction to the country and maintain the credibility of democracy,” he said, emphasizing the urgent need for unity among all people and groups for the greater good of the country. 

He appealed to everyone to not engage in divisive, sectarian and confrontational politics.

“It must be acknowledged that our country is facing the extreme misfortune of becoming deserted and impoverished everywhere. The time has come to think about putting an end to this situation. Let’s rethink,” he said.

Shah said when he quit the royal duties in 2008 he had stated through the mass media that he wished to live in Nepal for the greater welfare and peace of the country. “I remain steadfast in my commitment,” he said. “The patriotic feelings, nationalism, democratic commitment and active participation in the development and upliftment of the country that I expressed that day still resonate with me today.”

The former king also spoke at length about the misinformation that is being peddled to the general public regarding the 2001 royal massacre in which the monarch of the time, Birendra Shah, his entire family and several other members of the royal family were killed.  

Shah said that it was unjust and unfortunate that he and his family members were being slandered and attacked for the incident that took place on the night of 1 June 2001. 

“There are direct witnesses among us and yet there are many of us who are running behind falsehood and conspiracy. Truth always remains true. The victory of falsehood is never permanent,” he said.

Gyanendra was a ‘dummy king’: Oli 

CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli has likened former king Gyanendra Shah to a dummy version of a monarch.

“Just like a Brahmin priest prepares a dummy priest by placing a halfa grass over rice grains, Gyanendra is also a dummy version of a king,” Oli told the media on Sunday. 

The UML leader was responding to a speech that Shah gave in Birgunj on Saturday. 

He also claimed that the 2001 royal massacre was a conspiracy, stating that crown prince Dipendra could not have perpetrated the slaughter.   

“Nepalis should not lose their wisdom. Does a person who is supposed to be a king die like that? Could he operate four rifles and a pistol together?” Oli said, rubbishing the findings of the investigation conducted after the incident. 

“There was an investigation, but the national and international situations were different back then. Our then General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal himself was part of the investigation committee, but we recalled him in order not to get involved in the drama,” said Oli.

“The first son of the king becomes the next king. But when the first son, the second son and even the daughter of the king are dead, the monarchy ends right there,” he said. “It was the weakness of the government at that time to coronate Gyanendra as the king.”

The first ever elected Constituent Assembly of Nepal officially abolished the 240-old monarchy in 2008, but the pro-royalist forces, no matter how nebulous and insignificant, never disappeared. 

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, a right-wing, pro-Hindu political force led by Kamal Thapa, continued to advocate for restoration of monarchy and Hindu state. What the RPP was demanding at the time was nothing more than a mere whimper of protest. 

With just a handful of seats in parliament, it had no chance of bringing back monarchy. The three major political parties—Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—thought as much. They couldn’t have been more wrong. Same goes for many political pundits, columnists and commentators. 

Today pro-royalist groups are no longer vestiges of the past. Initially subdued, their voices for restoration of monarchy and Hindu state have grown louder in recent years.

While former king Gyanendra Shah has not publicly supported the ongoing movement, he has been known to offer patronage to royalist parties and pro-Hindu groups. He leans towards royalist sentiments, but he hasn’t aligned with any specific party. It seems the royalist forces need Shah more than he needs them.

A close associate of Shah acknowledges the impracticality of restoring monarchy without major party consensus. “He sympathizes with those raising the issue, but he is also aware that they lack the political strength and mass appeal.”

In the latest pro-royalist rally led by medical businessman Durga Prasai, thousands flooded the streets of Kathmandu, advocating for monarchy and a Hindu state. Prasai enticed supporters with promises of loan forgiveness. Yet, his true motives seemed detached from the cause. He had nothing to do with monarchy and Hindu state. 

Prasai used individuals burdened by micro-finances as pawns to join the rally. He made restoration of monarchy and Hindu state part of his key demands to garner strength from some pro-royalist and Hindu groups. But his divisive rhetoric provided a pretext for the authorities to quell the movement. 

No matter the motive behind the rally spearheaded by Prasai, it has unmistakably bolstered and galvanized the groups that wish to bring back monarchy and Hindu statehood.    

Just days after Prasai held a mass rally in the streets of Kathmandu, former king Shah made a public appearance in Jhapa to unveil the statue of King Prithvi Narayan Shah, who is credited for unifying various principalities to create modern Nepal. The former king was greeted by thousands of enthusiastic supporters, a scene reminiscent of when he visited Bhaktapur in September. 

The events concerning Prasai’s rally in Kathmandu and Shah’s visit to Jhapa should not be taken lightly. Observers say they underscore the growing public frustration with major political parties and the current government's perceived failures. If major political parties and the government fail to mend their ways, individuals like Prasai could exploit the disenchanted masses to further discredit the current political system. 

Upbeat by the size of the crowd at Prasai’s rally, RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden said: “The foundation of the republic has been shaken. It will soon topple.”

Former king Shah, who had met Prasai a few months back, has remained silent on the recent rally in Kathmandu, fueling speculation about his involvement. Major parties suspect he may have played a role in backing the rally. 

Nepali Congress General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has urged Shah to enter politics openly instead of operating behind the scenes.

“You are free to register a political party, contest the election and secure the two-thirds majority needed to overturn the current system,” Thapa challenged Shah at a recent event.

As the number of protesters increases, questions arise: Is the discontent aimed at the political system or a frustration with corrupt and ineffective leaders? Lawmaker Amresh Singh argues it's the latter, emphasizing the need for better governance.

“The weaknesses of the current crop of leaders from major political parties are the reason why regressive forces are targeting the republican system,” he says. “But one must make the distinction that this is the manifestation of frustration against the political parties, not against the current political system.”

Now royalist parties too are planning to hold mass rallies demanding the reinstatement of monarchy and Hindu state. Some observers suggest that external forces, such as India's Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, may be supporting the movement, urging major parties to remain vigilant while also making sincere efforts to correct their ways.  

Congress, UML and Maoist Center already face challenges from newly formed political forces, particularly the Rastriya Swatantra Party which pulled off a major victory at their electoral bastions in the 2022 general elections. 

Before that the three parties were stunned during the local election in which independent candidates, such as Balendra Shah and Harka Sampang, won the mayoral seats in Kathmandu and Dharan. Pro-royalist forces like the RPP, under the leadership of Lingden, are also enjoying a moment of resurgence right now.  

All these developments do not bode well for the three major parties who have been dominating the national politics and governance since 2008, with little to show for. 

Ever since the country adopted a federal republic set-up, the Congress, UML and Maoist have all led the government, but they have little to show for it. Unemployment, corruption, poor governance and political instability have thrived under their rule.     

The delayed response from major political parties and the government to address genuine issues, such as financial exploitation by micro-finances and rampant corruption, exacerbates people's frustrations. It's crucial for parties to address these root causes seriously.

Youth leaders within major parties acknowledge internal problems but lack the capacity to bring change. 

“If the current leadership continues to carry on with its current attitude and working style, we are sure to face a difficult time in the next election,” says Nainsingh Mahar, a Nepali Congress Central Working Committee member.  

On Sept 24, former King Gyanendra Shah visited Taleju Bhawani Temple in Bhaktapur, where he was received by a large crowd. The gathering surpassed his previous visits when he was still the monarch, elevating the spirits of royalist forces.

The temple area falls within the territory of the Nepal Majdoor Kishan Party, an orthodox communist group known for its soft spot for monarchy. Amid enthusiastic cheers for the former king, his supporters fervently chanted slogans demanding the reinstatement of the monarchy. Leaders of the pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) hailed this assembly as a testament to the growing support and calls for the restoration of monarchy and Hindu state, abolished by the Constituent Assembly in 2008.

Rabindra Mishra, senior Vice-chairperson of RPP, emphasized the political significance of the massive gathering in Bhaktapur through his X (formerly Twitter) post. Mishra, a former journalist, has evolved into a staunch advocate for the reinstatement of monarchy. 

And as economic hardships have fueled frustration among the populace, royalist forces are harnessing this resentment to push their political agenda. They argue that the removal of the monarchy worsened the country’s political and economic situation, making its revival a potential remedy. However, a counterargument questions whether the monarchy, even during its reign, could have addressed these issues effectively, given that over 15 years have passed since its removal.

King Gyanendra, despite his peaceful demeanor after losing the crown, has recently become more active and expressed interest in returning to power. He provides monetary support to royalist parties but maintains distance from direct political involvement.

RPP is the leading advocate for reversing the current political trajectory. Led by Rajendra Lingden, the party secured 14 seats in the national parliament in the last year's election, and has been pushing for pro-monarchy and pro-Hindu agendas 

The party plans to organize protests against federalism, republicanism, and secularism after the Dashain and Tihar festivals.The RPP’s supposed call to arms aligns with mounting criticism of federalism, particularly within the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. 

While some view the large gatherings at the former king’s public appearances as a sign of support for monarchy, others, like Professor Lokraj Baral, caution against equating it with a desire for monarchy’s return. He argues that people are indeed frustrated with the government, but this doesn’t necessarily translate into support for monarchy.

Baral’s reassuring observation hardly offers any consolation amid the extremely divided political landscape, poor governance, and economic crisis. Security agencies, including the Nepal Army, view identity-based federalism as a security threat. They reckon cases of communal violence, particularly in the Tarai region, are on the rise due to identity politics.

There are still risks of communal tensions in eastern Nepal, mainly in Dharan. Repeated clashes between two communities have also been reported in Malangawa, the district headquarter of Sarlahi. 

While the government and major political parties busy themselves in securing their interests, various religious outfits and anti-federal elements are stoking religious and communal discords.

Recently, teachers and doctors across the country are also in protest with their own sets of grievances and demands. Last week, teachers from across the country gathered in Kathmandu protesting the Education Bill registered in Parliament. While the government has reached a tentative agreement with the agitating teachers, a section of teachers are still protesting.

Doctors and medical professionals are also up in arms against an alarming surge in the incidents of assault on their colleagues. The victims of loan sharks and fraudulent financial institutions are also in protest. All these developments show that the state and its apparatuses are not on top of things. Amid all these pressing concerns, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and a number of his ministers are in foreign trips. 

As concerns over the government’s inaction on various economic, social, and political issues mount, public protests are only but expected, says Baral. But he reiterates that the current crises in no way can bring back monarchy.  Observers warn as economic condition worsens and social fabric frays, there is a risk of rogue elements exploiting the public frustration. The RPP seems to be doing the same thing. Same goes for businessperson Durga Prasai who has  threatened to bring thousands of people out in the street after the Dashain festival.

Ex-King Gyanendra Shah has reached Bhaktapur to offer prayers at the Taleju Bhawani Temple on Sunday. He received a warm welcome from the locals of Bhaktapur.

A large crowd of supporters had gathered at the Durbar Square to welcome him.

While welcoming the former king, they also chanted slogans in his favor.

The deposed king Shah also visited the Durbar Square.