The March 5 parliamentary election is not merely a battle for seats, but for the ideological essence and the mode of governance of the nation. The newly formed Nepali Communist Party (NCP), created by the merger of ten unique communist groups, aims to reclaim the hegemony of the left. The Nepali Congress (NC), revitalized and fragmented with Gagan Thapa at the helm, marks a new generation of leadership that is moving away from the Sher Bahadur Deuba era. CPN-UML is trying to revive under the same KP Sharma Oli despite the backlash from the people.
However, these forces are just ‘old’ contenders for the election. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), along with its strategic allies, has chosen former Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balen Shah as their prime ministerial candidate, hoping to capture the anti-incumbency sentiment of almost 19m voters and bring a technocratic revolution in the nation.
The election is marked by the presence of a number of ‘heavyweight’ contests where senior leaders face existential risks from each other or from emerging challengers. Based on the 2022 electoral baseline and the strategic realities of the 2026 race, here are the 11 most important constituencies that could determine the future balance of power in Nepal’s politics.
Jhapa-5
Jhapa-5 has come to occupy the center-stage in the election of 2026, with a direct confrontation between the Chairperson of the UML and former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and RSP’s Prime Ministerial Candidate Balen Shah. The constituency has traditionally been a stronghold of the UML, and it is interesting that Shah has chosen to fight this election in an attempt to take on the ‘titan’ in his own den.
Oli won this seat in the election of 2022 with relative ease, garnering 52,319 votes, more than twice the number of votes garnered by his closest contender from Nepali Congress, who managed only 23,743 votes. Shah has a considerable pull among the youths and new migrants in semi-rural districts like Jhapa. Although Oli still enjoys considerable support through the organizational strength of the UML and the traditional voter base of the party, especially among the elderly populations, the election here will now be a direct contest between ‘political longevity’ and ‘youths’. Even a slight loss of vote share by Oli will make this election a neck-and-neck contest.
Sarlahi-4
The newly elected President of the Nepali Congress, Gagan Kumar Thapa, is making a unique move by giving up a secure seat in Kathmandu-4 and opting for a contest from Sarlahi-4 in Madhes. Thapa is pitted against Amresh Kumar Singh, who emerged victorious as an independent candidate in 2022 and joined RSP recently. Singh polled 20,017 votes, while Nagendra Kumar Yadav of Nepali Congress secured 18,252 votes to finish second in the electoral race. Singh, who had won from the same constituency as a NC candidate in the 2017 polls, chose to contest as an independent after he was denied a party ticket.
Thapa is a national figure with minimal roots in Sarlahi-4, while Singh enjoys a strong support base because of his image as an anti-establishment leader. Also in the race are UML, NCP, JSP, and a number of independent candidates. In this contest, it remains to be seen whether Thapa’s image as a national figure will be able to overcome the issue of identity-based voting in Madhes. Thapa’s failure will be a disaster for his prime ministerial ambition, while Singh’s win will establish him as a giant-killer.
Rukum East
NCP Coordinator and former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is contesting from Rukum East, a district he calls the ‘new headquarters’ of the party. He is challenged by a symbolic but very powerful contender in Sandeep Pun of the Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party, who is the son of a leading martyr of the Maoist insurgency.
Dahal’s decision to contest from Rukum East is his return to the revolutionary stronghold to ensure a smooth entry into the new parliament with waning support in the urban areas. However, Pun represents a section of the ‘Maoist base’ who feels betrayed by the leadership’s merger politics and corruption. Most importantly, there are reports that the UML has agreed to extend its tacit support to the candidates of Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party in this region to clip the wings of Dahal’s power.
Chitwan-3
Chitwan-3 features a high-stakes encounter between Renu Dahal, the former Mayor of Bharatpur Metropolitan City and daughter of NCP Coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and Sobita Gautam of the RSP. In 2022, Rastriya Prajatantra Party’s Bikram Pandey had won from here defeating then CPN (Maoist Center)’s Bhojraj Adhikari by 9,747 vote margins.
Dahal aims to reclaim her father’s legacy seat by showcasing her developmental achievements as Bharatpur Mayor. Meanwhile, Gautam, a rising star of the 2022 RSP wave, has moved constituencies to challenge the ‘first family’ of the NCP. This contest is a referendum on whether the ‘service delivery’ model of the Dahal family can withstand the RSP’s ‘new force’ narrative.
Kathmandu-4
Kathmandu-4 has become an open battlefield following Gagan Thapa’s departure. In 2022, Thapa won comfortably with 21,302 votes, while UML finished second with 13,855 votes. The 2022 results highlight why the seat is volatile. Although RSP did not field a direct candidate, it secured 9,412 proportional representation votes, indicating a strong appetite for change. NC received only 11,808 PR votes, suggesting much of its support was tied to Thapa’s personal appeal rather than party loyalty. The UML showed a similar gap, with 13,855 direct votes against 10,560 PR votes, while RPP posted a notable 6,881 PR votes.
Starting from a base of nearly 10,000 votes without an FPTP candidate last time, RSP sees a clear opening and has fielded Pukar Bam in the race. Congress candidate Sachin Timalsina is a new face, making a smooth transfer of Thapa’s vote bank uncertain. UML’s Rajan Bhattarai, contesting for the third time, faces an equally tough challenge as urban and GenZ voters increasingly question traditional party dominance. Bam, who has made his name for his civic activism, makes him a credible contender, positioning Kathmandu-4 as one of the clearest indicators of whether urban political change will translate into electoral victory.
Kathmandu-5
The constituency of Kathmandu-5 is witnessing a hot and crowded contest between NC General Secretary Pradeep Paudel, UML’s senior leader Ishwar Pokharel, RPP leader Kamal Thapa, and RSP’s Sashmit Pokharel. The constituency is a symbol of the larger struggle between reformism, communism, and royalism.
Pokharel seeks to reclaim the seat he lost in 2022, emphasizing his seniority and past ministerial record. Paudel, now a key figure in the Thapa-led NC, relies on his reputation as a clean, reformist leader. The entry of Thapa and Sashmit creates a four-way contest that makes the outcome highly unpredictable. This race will determine if the ‘youth wave’ that favored Paudel in 2022 has matured into a stable constituency or if the fragmented vote will allow the UML to return or the RSP’s Sashmit, who has worked with Balen Shah’s team in Kathmandu Metropolitan City.
Saptari-2
CK Raut, the chairperson of the Janamat Party, seeks to retain Saptari-2 after his historic defeat of Upendra Yadav in 2022. Raut secured 35,042 votes, while Yadav managed only 16,979. The landslide victory marked the arrival of Janamat as a serious political force. This constituency remains the focal point of the Madhes, where regional identity clashes with the Janamat Party’s ‘alternative’ development narrative. Raut faces a re-energized field as national parties like the UML and NC have prioritized this seat to curb the Janamat Party’s expansion. While Raut’s 2022 margin was massive, the 2026 contest involved a more fragmented Madhesi vote, with several ‘new forces’ attempting to slice into his youth base. Also, Raut’s Janamat Party in recent months has experienced a split. This time, he is facing JSP’s Umesh Kumar Yadav. The result will indicate whether Janamat’s success was a one-time wave or a lasting realignment.
Chitwan-2
Chitwan-2 is noteworthy as the least competitive and most politically significant seat. In 2022, the seat was won by Rabi Lamichhane with a landslide victory of 49,300 votes, leaving behind the candidates of the Nepali Congress and the UML. The same was repeated by Lamichhane in the by-elections of 2023, securing an even higher number of votes. In 2026, Lamichhane is up against relatively low-profile candidates of the traditional political parties. Unless there is a major swing in voter preference, Chitwan-2 is likely to be with the RSP party.
Sunsari-1
Sunsari-1 is turning out to be one of the most unpredictable contests in the eastern part of Nepal. In the 2022 election, JSP’s Ashok Rai won the seat with a narrow margin of only 453 votes, defeating RSP’s Goma Tamang, who received 16,606 votes. The same unpredictability has been witnessed in the 2026 election, but with a twist.
Harka Sampang, the former Mayor of Dharan Sub-metropolitan City who resigned to contest the general election, has formed the Shram Shakti Party. Contesting on the symbol of ‘two hands holding soil’, Sampang brings a unique, labor-oriented populism to Sunsari-1. Sampang’s campaign is characterized by its grassroots activism, including door-to-door cleaning drives and a focus on ‘soil and sweat’. He faces Samir Tamang of the RSP and candidates from the JSP, NC and UML, who are struggling to match his ‘stubborn’ local visibility. This battle will signal whether local, issue-based movements can transcend to the national legislative level.
Tanahun–1
Tanahun-1 has turned out to be one of the most revealing constituencies in the country. In 2022, Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Paudel won this seat by securing 25,361 votes. The second position was taken by the UML party with 19,981 votes, and RSP was nowhere in the picture. However, in the 2023 by-election, it was RSP’s Swarnim Wagle who won by an overwhelming margin. This shows that there has been a tremendous shift in voters’ behavior. In 2026, Wagle will face Nepali Congress candidate Govinda Bhattarai, UML’s Bhagwati Neupane, and NCP candidate among others.
Gulmi-1
Gulmi-1 has emerged as one of the most unpredictable electoral arenas in the Lumbini province, as the traditional bipolar struggle between the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML is shattered by the entry of formidable new challengers.
In 2022, Chandra Bhandari secured a hard-fought victory against the UML’s Pradeep Gyawali. The 2026 battle is defined as a ‘four-way contest’. Gyawali seeks to reclaim his former seat by relying on a strong UML organizational base, while Bhandari faces the challenge of maintaining his vote. The dynamic is fundamentally altered by Sagar Dhakal (RSP), who previously gained national prominence for challenging Sher Bahadur Deuba in Dadheldhura, and Sudarshan Baral (NCP), a senior leader and former provincial minister representing the unified leftist front. This multi-cornered fight is a critical test of whether the ‘new wave’ can dismantle established strongholds in rural heartlands.
The socio-political genesis of the 2026 election
This catalyzing event for an early election was the widespread civil unrest that gripped Nepal in 8-9 Sept 2025. While this unrest was tipped by a government crackdown on social media platforms, there were simmering frustrations with corruption, economic stagnation, and the perceived arrogance of the ruling parties. Ultimately, this unrest resulted in a minimum of 76 deaths. The GenZ movement, with its decentralized and digital nature, effectively delegitimized the government of KP Sharma Oli and forced a constitutional reset.
The appointment of Sushila Karki as interim Prime Minister was a stabilizing force that allowed for elections to be conducted while the traditional parties purged and merged themselves. The period between this uprising and the scheduled March 5 elections has been one of unprecedented political machinations. The Election Commission (EC) has finally verified a voter list of 18,903,689 voters for this 2026 cycle. While this represents a 5.09 percent increase from 2022, 1.1m voters represent a new voter turnout, primarily from the youth who spearheaded this GenZ movement.
