The week that was

This week, two major political parties—Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML—made significant decisions that could shape Nepali politics for years, particularly if they maintain these positions until the 2027 national elections. The NC has decided to reorganize its party structure to strengthen its ability to contest the 2027 elections independently, signaling a move away from pre-election alliances, particularly with the CPN (Maoist Center).

However, NC’s decision is somewhat unclear, as its leadership is under pressure to resist any pre-election alliances. The UML, currently the ruling party and a key competitor of NC, has made a similar decision. The UML is working on a strategy to boost its strength ahead of the 2027 elections, aiming to emerge as the largest political party. Despite leading the government, the party’s focus seems squarely on the upcoming elections.

These decisions are troubling for the CPN (Maoist Center), the third-largest party, which relies heavily on coalition politics to maintain its status. Maoist Chairperson Pushpa Kamal Dahal has expressed concern, suggesting that there are efforts to push Nepal toward a two-party system. Meanwhile, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), which made a strong showing in the 2022 elections, may welcome the NC and UML’s decisions. Without alliances among the major parties, the RSP could increase its chances of electoral success.

The durability of this shift will depend on the stability of the current coalition. Should the Maoist Center once again play the role of kingmaker, its condition for supporting NC or UML would likely be the formation of an electoral alliance. This would apply not only in national elections but also in other political contexts, as Dahal favors pre-election alliances.

It’s also possible that NC might still seek an alliance with the Maoist Center to counter UML’s organizational strength at the grassroots level. NC’s internal struggles over this decision are evident, with leaders like Shekhar Koirala and Gagan Thapa optimistic about their chances of winning solo, despite the party’s general weakening at the local level. The upcoming NC general convention in 2026, just before the elections, could lead to a reversal of the current stance depending on the leadership at that time.

In another story this week, there were murmurs suggesting cracks in the UML-NC coalition. However, NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba has downplayed such concerns, stating that NC and UML share similar positions on key national issues, and the coalition remains stable.

Also this week, RSP Chairperson Rabi Lamichhane was grilled by Pokhara police over his alleged involvement in the misappropriation of cooperative funds. There are reports that Pokhara police are preparing to file a case against him. Meanwhile, Surya Thapa, a member of the parliamentary probe committee on cooperatives, revealed this week that Gorkha Media, with which Lamichhane was associated, had indeed taken money from cooperatives. Following these incidents, Lamichhane, previously a high-ranking media figure and former Home Minister, met with Prime Minister Dahal and NC President Deuba, possibly seeking their support to avoid legal action.

Tensions between Prime Minister Oli and Maoist Chairperson Dahal intensified this week. While Oli continues to accuse Dahal of fostering anarchy, Dahal has warned of a potential people’s uprising to unseat the government, drawing parallels to recent events in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

In other developments this week, the parliamentary hearing on the proposed ambassadors to 18 countries has sparked criticism, with many on social media mocking the ambitious and unrealistic promises made by the candidates.

On a more positive note, the transitional justice process has received a boost with the passage of key bills, supported by 10 major countries, including China—a rare instance of China publicly endorsing Nepal’s transitional justice efforts. Western nations and China appear to be aligned on this issue, while India, which raised concerns about this process in 2015, remains silent. Conflict victims have expressed mixed feelings, supporting the bill but with some reservations. A writ has been filed in the Supreme Court to determine whether the new legislation meets the criteria set by the court’s historic verdict. The government is expected to begin appointments to transitional justice bodies soon.

In the Parliamentary Committee on International Relations and Tourism, Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba faced numerous questions related to relations with India and China this week. She revealed that India has not extended an official invitation to Prime Minister Oli, although there may be an opportunity for him to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the postponed BIMSTEC summit. 

Prime Minister Oli is scheduled to travel to New York in the third week of this month to attend the UN General Assembly. There is speculation about whether Oli will visit China before India if he receives an invitation from Beijing. Foreign Minister Deuba also revealed that the Indian side has already begun preparations for Modi’s visit to Nepal.

Finally, provincial governments are still incomplete as the process of appointing ministers continues, which is hindering their ability to function effectively.

That’s all for this week. Have a great weekend!