Nepal and Indian elections

India, the world's largest democracy, is busy holding the 18th Lok Sabha elections which will conclude on June 1. The global community is closely watching the outcomes of these elections. With its burgeoning population having surpassed China's, India is on track to claim the mantle of the world's third-largest economy by 2030. As a key player in the Indo-Pacific region and a torchbearer for the Global South, India's policies, both domestic and foreign, resonate far beyond its borders.

The significance of India's elections reverberates throughout the region. While there are widespread projections that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a third consecutive term, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi continuing in office, opposition parties are expected to strengthen their position compared to the 2019 elections.

The election outcomes in India are of particular significance for South Asian nations including Nepal, where India wields deep political, economic and military influence. In 2014, upon assuming power with a resounding victory, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reinvigorated the 'Neighborhood First' policy, although he failed to achieve the expected outcomes. 

To demonstrate the BJP government's priority for neighbors, he invited the heads of state and government from South Asian countries to attend his swearing-in ceremony. When re-elected in 2019, Modi continued the 'Neighborhood First' policy by inviting BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Pectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) member countries to his swearing-in ceremony. If re-elected for a third term, the BJP government is likely to maintain the 'Neighborhood First' policy, although India has been focusing more on regions beyond South Asia in recent years. 

Despite occasional highs and lows, the trajectory of Nepal-India relations points toward a positive outlook, poised to weather the complexities of shared history and future aspirations.

Over the past decade, under Modi's leadership, Nepal-India relations have witnessed many highs and lows. However, the relationship is moving in a positive direction, which should continue even after the elections.

Crucial issues such as the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty and boundary disputes remain on the diplomatic agenda, albeit the two countries approach them with varying degrees of emphasis. Nevertheless, the two neighbors recognize the imperative of fostering trust and stability to navigate these challenges successfully. A notable shift in India's approach to the internal affairs of its neighbors signals a promising era of cooperation built on mutual respect and understanding.

The BJP government has changed its approach on how to view the internal political affairs of South Asian countries which has helped to build an environment trust.

One encouraging signal is that economic collaboration has emerged as a cornerstone of bilateral relations, with a growing focus on development partnerships and infrastructure projects. Despite changes in political leadership, the momentum in bilateral engagements remains steady, underpinning a commitment to sustained progress and prosperity.

Over the past three decades, India has faced charges of not completing development projects for extended periods. However, several bilateral projects are now making progress, ultimately helping to build an environment of trust. Recent visits by Nepali leaders to New Delhi and Indian leaders to Kathmandu have focused on enhancing economic and development partnerships. The energy cooperation agreement between Nepal and India has paved the way for regional energy cooperation, with Nepal positioned as a clean energy provider to the region. 

As India's economy continues to rise and rise, and major multinational companies shift their industries to India, Nepal, which shares an open border, should get the opportunities. India could become a destination not only for unskilled Nepali workforce but also for highly skilled professionals in sectors such as education, health, IT, banking, and others, which have not received much discussion. Both Nepal and India should seriously consider these issues and clearly outline their plans to derive economic benefits from India's rising economy. These matters should be taken seriously regardless of which party comes to power.

Amid robust economic collaboration between two countries, over the past few years, Nepal is witnessing a debate about the growing ideological influence of BJP in Nepal. In recent years, there has been a perception among Nepali leaders and the public that the BJP and its affiliates are pushing for a Hindu agenda in Nepal. It is often said that they are suggesting (sometimes pressuring) Nepali leaders to scrap secularism and go for the Hindu state. There are also reports that various organizations linked with the BJP are active in Nepal with their Hindu agenda. 

While Nepal's top leaders are aware of those issues, they have not spoken publicly. However, they want to discuss those issues with Indian leaders. BJP leaders should be mindful that such efforts could again strain the bilateral relationship, which has reached a new level after sustained efforts from both sides. It would be worthwhile to recall India's approach to the demands of Madhes-based parties, mainly after 2017, which helped enhance the bilateral relations.

Many Nepali politicians and analysts view the growing activities of Hindu organizations as an attempt to overturn the 2015 constitution. This suspicion among Nepali politicians obviously does not help enhance the bilateral relationship. There should be frank and open discussions between the two sides, not only on these issues but also on other issues of mutual concern. 

India's relationship with global powers also affects its South Asia policy. The India-US strategic partnership is likely to be enhanced, but there are divergent views on several bilateral and global issues, including the Russia-Ukraine war. The India-China relationship is unlikely to improve for at least the next few years. As I have highlighted in my previous columns, Nepal's approach should be not to engage in the big-power rivalry but to focus on economic development.

The future of Nepal-India relations hinges not on fleeting political interests but on a shared commitment to long-term prosperity and mutual respect. By prioritizing economic and developmental collaboration, both nations can chart a course toward a brighter, more interconnected future.