What are Dahal’s agenda in New York and Beijing?

Earlier this week, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal sought cross-party advice to shape the agenda for the 78th UN General Assembly taking place in New York from Sept 18-26. Dahal’s plans extended beyond the formal assembly proceedings; he wished to gather insights for the high-stakes meetings he is slated to hold with influential world leaders on the assembly’s sidelines. His journey doesn’t end there—he’s also gearing up for a rendezvous with Chinese leaders in Beijing, where he will fly next after attending the UN meeting.   

The gravity of Dahal’s presence in New York cannot be overstated. Since 2018, no Nepali prime minister has graced the UN General Assembly with their physical presence. In the intervening years, the world witnessed virtual addresses by the prime minister and the occasional foreign minister attending on Nepal’s behalf. The Covid-19 pandemic only exacerbated the situation, where remote participation was encouraged.

This year, Dahal is set to make history by addressing the general debate of the 78th UN General Assembly. World leaders will convene to deliberate on how best to confront the multifaceted global polycrisis and expedite the realization of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will take center stage, rallying leaders and communities alike to reaffirm their commitment to these goals at the halfway mark to 2030.

Another marquee event is the Climate Ambition Summit, scheduled for Sept 20. This presents an invaluable opportunity for leaders to collectively demonstrate their resolve to tackle the ever-escalating climate emergency, as emphasized by the UN.

In the United Nations chamber, Dahal is poised to advocate for several crucial issues. He intends to spotlight the devastating impacts of climate change and the intricate challenges posed by Nepal’s transition from a Least Developed Country (LDC) to a Middle-Income Country, particularly in the realms of international trade and a gamut of socioeconomic concerns.

Crucially, Dahal will strive to reassure the international community regarding the culmination of Nepal’s transitional justice process, aligning it with the Supreme Court’s verdict and international norms. He was planning to present the transitional justice bill in Parliament before his departure to New York, but  the main opposition, CPN-UML, didn’t cooperate.

But  Dahal has to understand that even as he endeavors to advance his vision, the international community remains skeptical of the current bill, challenging his resolve to forge ahead.

Of late, the Dahal government is under immense pressure to expedite the transitional justice process. During a visit by US officials to Nepal, they inquired the Nepali leaders about the transitional justice process, perhaps prompting Dahal to feel the heat.

In New York, the prospect of Dahal holding high-level meetings remains uncertain, with the exception of a photo opportunity with US President Joe Biden. Dahal is at a crossroads, navigating between his pursuit of a blanket amnesty and the resolute international opposition. 

The Beijing leg of his journey presents its own set of challenges, particularly concerning the contentious map issue and the broader development agenda. While he may not have broached this topic during his New Delhi visit, mounting pressure from opposition parties and civil society might compel Dahal to address the map issue unequivocally, at least for domestic consumption.

To further complicate matters, Dahal grapples with other pressing priorities. He must finalize the implementation plan of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) while navigating the delicate terrain of Nepal’s stance on China’s evolving claims regarding the BRI, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. 

Dahal has long sought to make progress in his dealings with China but exercises caution, especially given security considerations embedded within the proposed plan. His coalition partner, the Nepali Congress, has reservations about embracing the BRI, further complicating matters. With Nepal’s acceptance of the US Millennium Challenge Cooperation fund under the Indo-Pacific Strategy, Beijing is pressuring Dahal to make headway on the BRI.

Last week Dahal also talked about inking a deal on power trade with China, but the chances appear slim. He recognizes the pivotal role played by continuous support from New Delhi and Washington in sustaining his government. Both India and Western powers closely scrutinize Dahal’s China policy. Unfortunately, substantial preparations for his Beijing visit appear lacking, with Foreign Minister NP Saud notably absent from Beijing preparations in favor of the New York leg.

As a prelude to the visit, Nepali Ambassador to Beijing Bishnu Pukar Shrestha engaged with Liu Jinsong, the director-general of the Department of Asian Affairs of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Their discussions centered on deepening mutual understanding and trust, underscoring Nepal’s unwavering commitment to the One-China policy. Nepal aims to fortify traditional friendship and expand cooperation across diverse domains including the BRI with China. Yet, for China, security remains paramount, and Dahal’s visit presents an opportunity to seek reassurances on this front.

The shadow of the Chinese map issue and the Chinese ambassador's recent comments regarding India cast a pall over Dahal’s visit preparations. Beijing may not harbor high expectations this time around, appearing more amenable to New Delhi. Nevertheless, they favor the continuity of Dahal’s government over the Nepali Congress, recalling their ‘bitter experiences’ with the previous Sher Bahadur Deuba-led administration. Incremental progress and reaffirmations of past agreements may be on the agenda, but transformative breakthroughs seem unlikely. Dahal, now seasoned and matured since 2008, must balance his overtures to Beijing to prevent a change in government—a recurrent theme in Nepali politics dating back to the Panchayat era.