Once the EC makes election results out, the party will hold the election of its parliamentary party leader. The winner will be eligible to become the party’s prime ministerial candidate. The concrete discussion on power-sharing deals with other coalition partners begins only after the NC settles its intra-party issues, as youth leaders like Thapa are saying that they are not in favor of continuing the coalition just for the sake of it. Instead, they are calling for a new power-sharing deal guided by common policy.
Unlike in the NC, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and Maoist Center Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal do not have any challenges from within. Still, the government formation process is likely to become a sticky affair, following the fragmented vote in the elections. Weakened positions of major parties and the emergence of the new party like the RSP mean there is no telling how the new government composition will be. While top leaders of the major current coalition have already started parleys to explore the possibility of continuation of the present coalition, the UML wants to break it. Some UML leaders are openly proposing the NC to seriously consider the possibility of a NC-UML coalition government. It is hard to predict how the power-sharing deal pans out. Parties may not be able to forge a consensus on government leadership even after the EC announces the final election results. On Nov 24, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli rightly pointed out that formation of a new government is going to be difficult, and even more so ensuring its sustainability. The NC will naturally stake its claim to the leadership of the next government. This, even though Deuba and Dahal had reportedly reached an understanding that the latter will get to become the next prime minister. It was part of the deal brokered by the two leaders to forge an electoral alliance to defeat the UML. But, with the Maoists failing to win enough seats in parliament, Deuba may not honor that pact. The NC-led five-party electoral alliance will require at least 138 seats to form a government. But due to poor performance of its members, the current coalition will struggle to string together a majority. They will most likely have to reach out to the parties like the RSP, RPP, fringe Madhes-based parties and independent candidates. And while the strength of the Maoist party may have reduced, it could still become the kingmaker. Without Maoists’ support, there won’t be a majority—neither for Deuba, nor for Oli. While Deuba may agree to hand over the government leadership to Dahal to prevent the UML from coming to power, it will be a very difficult task to say the least. UML won parliamentary seats nearly on par with the NC. The party’s chair, Oli, is the undisputed candidate for PM. There are murmurs that there is a chance of the UML and the Maoists coming together to form a government. Oli has already called Dahal offering a power-sharing agreement, even though the two leaders have not been seeing eye- to-eye after the bitter breakup of the erstwhile Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) in 2021, which was formed as a result of the merger between UML and Maoists in 2018. But with both Oli and Dahal claimants to the post of prime minister from their respective parties and their already fractious relationship, it is hard to imagine if and how they will come together to form a government. The NC-UML coalition government cannot be ruled out either. Oli had hinted about its possibility before the elections as well. And if the two parties were to come together, the fringe parties could lose their bargaining power. It could also bring some semblance of government stability. However, the last time the NC and UML entered a coalition, it had ended disastrously. After the 2013 second Constituent Assembly polls, the two parties had come together to form a government under a gentleman’s understanding that the NC would hand over the government reins to the UML after the promulgation of constitution. But the NC reneged on the promise and the UML went on to ally with the Maoists. Even if the NC and UML were to join hands to form a new government, the billion-dollar question remains: who gets to become the prime minister? No matter how far-fetched it may seem, there is a chance that Deuba and Oli could agree to lead the government on a rotational basis, considering that the emergence of new parties is a common threat to them. And if all fails, formation of a minority government also cannot be fully ruled out. In this case, the new government will have to take a vote of confidence within a month. None of the above-mentioned alternatives can be ruled out, because coalitions are never formed on the basis of ideology. Similarly, the power-sharing deal in the seven provinces will also influence the makeup of the government at the center. The issue of which party gets president and speaker is likely to become equally prickly in the overall power-sharing process. At the same time, the role and influence of external power is another factor that could determine the power-sharing deal. The fragmented parliament provides spaces to external powers to influence the formation process. Make no mistake, New Delhi, Beijing and Washington have already started exerting their influence in the government formation process.
