Delay in constitution amend­ment, a life sentence to law­maker Resham Chaudhary for his role in the 2015 Tikapur killings, and an 11-point agreement with the secessionist leader CK Raut seem to have brought two Madhes-based parties, the Rastriya Janta Party Nepal (RJPN) and the Federal Social­ist Party Nepal (FSPN), closer.The unification process is in its initial phase. The RJPN has recently formed a talk team led by Rajendra Mahato with four other members, namely Brikesh Lal, Ramesh Yadav, Keshav Jha and Sunil Rohit. The FSPN had already formed a talk team led by Rajendra Shrestha five months ago. Unification may take some time, but leaders of both the parties claim sincere efforts to that end have been made since their electoral alliance in 2017.

 

A few factors have contributed to bringing them together. Madhesi leaders say they had expected Prime Minister KP Oli to push the consti­tution amendment proposal. With no progress, the RJPN withdrew its support to the government and pres­sure is building on FSPN Chairman Upendra Yadav to speak up about the amendment.

 

Ram Sahaya Yadav, FSPN Gen­eral Secretary, and other senior party leaders are of the view that if the two-point agreement the party signed with the government is not implemented, there is no point in staying on in the government. As a result, Upendra Yadav is gradually hardening his stance on constitution amendment. He recently said, “The prime minister has assured us that he won’t renege on his promise. But there is a limit to our patience.”

 

Leaders of both the FSPN and the RJPN aver that only a united party can put enough pressure on Kath­mandu to amend the charter. Says Professor Surendra Labh, a Janak­pur-based political analyst, “Grass­roots cadres see ongoing efforts as inadequate. They feel a need for more concerted pressure on the government to see the amendment through. This thinking seems to have brought the two parties closer.”

 

 'The prime minister has assured us that he won’t renege on his promise. But there is a limit to our patience'

Upendra Yadav, FSPN Chairman

 

Chaudhary irritant

The Kailali district court’s deci­sion to hand down a life sentence to RJPN lawmaker Resham Chaudhary has served as another unifier, with both parties considering it a political case that should have never gone to court. Immediately after the Kailali court issued its verdict, the govern­ment reached an 11-point agreement with CK Raut, who was behind bars for championing an independent Madhes. The Madhes-based parties were irked that the government did not consult them and suspect the move was aimed at weakening them.

 

“The deal with Raut prompted the FSPN and the RJPN to expe­dite unification,” says a Madhes observer. Leaders of the two parties fear Raut could emerge as a strong political force in Madhes and pose a threat to them. Labh says although talks of unifica­tion between the FSPN and the RJPN had begun earlier, the 11-point deal with Raut was an addi­tional spur. Leaders and Madhes watchers also point to the pressure from India. It is an open secret that the southern neighbor has been urg­ing the Madhes-based parties to unite and come up with a strong political force.

 

Despite all these fac­tors, the question as to whether the two par­ties will actually unite remains open. Their leaders say despite broad convergence of views on various issues, it is not easy to form a single party. The immediate challenge is related to support for the govern­ment. While the RJPN thinks Yadav should quit the government before unification, the FSPN maintains no condi­tion should be imposed for unity talks and government-related issues should be dealt with after unification.

 

Figuring out the new party’s leadership will be tricky too. The RJPN is for a presidium model, under which six mem­bers take turns as party coordinator. In the third week of April 2017, six of the seven Madhes-based parties under the then Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM) had formed the Rastriya Janta Party Nepal (RJPN) so as to consolidate their strength. But Upendra Yadav chose not to join it.

 

Problematic presidium

As the presidium model has already created many problems in the party, it is unlikely to be con­tinued after the unification. At least three RJPN leaders will claim leadership of the unified party. But so will Yadav, given the FSPN’s strength in federal and provincial parliaments. Says political analyst Vijya Kanta Karna, “Party leadership will be difficult to settle. But if it is settled, unification won’t be diffi­cult.” Karna says the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is also beset by problems because it has two chairmen.

 

If the presidium model is accepted at the center, it will lead to organi­zational problems at the grassroots.

Yet another challenge, according to Madhes observers, is the intra-party dispute rife in both the RJPN and the FSPN. “There are disputes within the two parties over leader­ship. These disputes could worsen if the parties decide on unification,” says Labh.

 

The RJPN and the FSPN aren’t much divided on the ideological front. They had the same position during constitution drafting and had jointly launched the Madhes move­ment. They also fought the election together and they have a coalition government in Province 2. As such, the two parties have many common interests, which could provide a solid foundation for unification.

 

If and when the unification goes ahead, each party’s strength at the federal and provincial levels will obviously count. The RJPN was formed after the unification of six Madhes-based parties, but in the three tiers of elections in 2017, the FSPN secured almost equal seats in the House of Representatives and won more seats than the RJPN in Province 2.

 

In the HoR, the RJPN has 17 mem­bers—11 directly elected and six from proportional representation—while the FSPN has 16 members—10 directly elected and six from pro­portional representation. In the National Assembly, they have two seats each.

 

Contested claims

In Province 2, the FSPN has formed the government with the RJPN’s support. In the provincial parliament, the FSPN is the larg­est party with 29 seats against the RJPN’s 25. FSPN leaders say their claim to party leadership is there­fore justified.

 

Upendra Yadav has a strong organizational base at the grass­roots, which is why his party secures a sizable presence even in difficult times. Observers say hard work sets him apart from other Madhesi leaders. Yadav frequently visits Tarai districts and meets the party rank and file. He has also maintained good relations with other political parties and the international community.

 

The caste factor seems to be equally important. Upendra Yadav is regarded as a towering figure in the Yadav community, which is eco­nomically and educationally strong. Even in the whole of Madhes, Yadav is considered an important leader, second perhaps only to Mahanta Thakur. As such, the FSPN is strong and coherent. The RJPN, by con­trast, is not united either at the cen­ter or at the grassroots, and is rela­tively weaker.

 

Even if unification between the two parties proves elusive, they are likely to forge an alliance to press for constitution amendment and to minimize the Raut factor in Madhes. During the Madhes movement in 2015 and the elections in 2017, there was already a working alliance.

 

“During the formation of the Oli-led government, the RJPN and the FSPN made decisions inde­pendently. Whereas Yadav joined the government, the RJPN sup­ported it from the outside. Now, even if they don’t unite, it’d be good for Madhes if they can maintain an alliance,” says Labh.