During the event organized in the City Hall to announce the formal unification of the two parties—CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center)—on May 17, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli argued that ‘flying a jet plane requires two pilots’, in an attempt to justi­fy the provision of two chairmen in the new unified party, Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Those who closely follow Oli’s peculiarly quotable quotes know better than to take them at face value. His use of the jet plane met­aphor carries more meaning than one would generally think. While it is true that a jet plane has two pilots, the power dynamic between the two is not of equals. One is a captain and the other is a co-pilot or the first officer. There are no prizes for guessing who between the two NCP leaders is the captain at the moment.

 

The smooth cruising of the new NCP jet certainly faces many chal­lenges, the primary one being the topsy-turvy relationship between the two pilots. This is not the first time that the two have had grand plans for party unification; during Oli’s first tenure as prime minister in 2015-16, the two leaders had extensive discussion on forming a single party for all the left forces of the country.

 

But the plan soon fell apart as personal relations between Dahal and Oli took a bitter turn, and Dahal joined the Congress camp, ousting the Oli government. Those familiar with the developments then say that Dahal felt deeply humiliated by Oli’s regular jibes, particularly ones suggesting that he would protect Dahal, a veiled reference to conflict era cases and personal property that Dahal is said to have amassed.

 

But as they say, politics makes for strange bedfellows. The rap­prochement this time was a cul­mination of political necessity and their personal ambitions. In a way, it was a writing on the wall.

 

Political necessity

 

Oli knew that without the Mao­ists’ support, his party would not return to power. The Indian design to keep him out of power by encouraging the Maoists and Nepali Congress to stick together is an open secret.

 

For Dahal, as the local elec­tions showed, without a decent seat-sharing arrangement, his party would see the worst per­formance in national elections since entering mainstream poli­tics in 2008—destroying any legit­imate claim for remaining at the helm of his party. While Nepali Congress and Sher Bahadur Deuba remained non-committal about a 60:40 seat sharing, Oli was eager to pay the price for an electoral alliance.

 

Personal ambitions

 

Both Oli and Dahal are keen to leave their mark behind. At this juncture in Nepal’s history, both realize that they need each oth­er to get things done their way. The only question is how far their ambitions converge and at what point they begin to diverge. Temperamentally, they are far from similar, yet both have a tenacity that makes them each other’s comrade-in-arms in an unusual way.

 

Oli cultivates loyalty to a point of sycophancy and goes out of his way to protect people who are close to him—and whose support­ers worship him, while detractors mock and loathe him. Dahal is charismatic but utilitarian; his closest supporters often remain unsure about where they stand with him. In fact some of Dahal’s harshest critics are those who have worked closely with him in the past.

 

Both Oli and Dahal are very decisive and can bend the party to their will.

 

Writing on the wall

 

Both have seen the writing on the wall about Nepal’s moment in the sun as post-blockade Nepal-In­dia relations have unwittingly accorded Kathmandu a degree of strategic autonomy in dealing with third countries, particular­ly China. If handled correctly, the current geo-political envi­ronment provides Nepal tre­mendous leverage in attracting development finance and increas­ing connectivity and trade with both its neighbors.

 

Despite rhetoric to the contrary in the Indian media, New Delhi appears to have concluded that India stands to gain more from engagement and cohabitation with Beijing than by aligning with Washington—given the current US leadership or lack thereof. Increasingly, the concern in New Delhi seems be over the potential warming of ties between Mos­cow and Islamabad, its nemesis numero uno—and some sort of China-Russia-Pakistan alliance.

 

Against this backdrop, Oli and Dahal, by taking a broad view and discarding short-term temp­tations, decided to push on with the unification. The flexibility, finesse and dogged determination both leaders have shown this time is a rare sight in Nepali politics. But only time will tell if it will last.

 

Twitter @johnparajuli