State of the economy: Recovery hope rises with improvements in external sector
After a tumultuous year that gave rise to fears that Nepal is going the 'Sri Lanka way', the good news is the country's external sector has improved noticeably over the last two months. But the bad news is, the government is struggling to meet the revenue collection target along with expediting capital expenditure.
The government has spent only 24.26 percent of the budget in the first five months of the current fiscal year. According to the Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO), which tracks the budgetary operation, the government’s spending stood at Rs 435.21bn till mid-Dec with capital expenditure totaling just Rs 33.99bn, a meager nine percent of the money allocated in the federal budget, in the review period.
In this context, the most worrying part for the government has been a sharp decline in revenue collection. Such is the slump that current revenue collection is not sufficient even to meet growing recurrent expenditure.
Revenue collection has largely fallen behind the target in the first five months of the current fiscal year as the FCGO data shows the government's revenue collection has a shortfall of Rs 138 billion of the target.
The government had set a target of collecting Rs 464bn in revenue from mid-July to mid-December period, but the collection stood at only Rs 326bn. On the other hand, the overall expenditure stood at Rs 438.79bn.
Improving external sector
While Nepa’s overall economic prospect is still uncertain as the recession has gripped the economy, the recovery in the country’s external sector has given some breathing space to the government. The latest macroeconomic report of Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) shows some key indicators of the external sector of the economy including balance of payment (BoP), remittance inflow and forex reserves all have increased.
Nepal’s BOP is at a surplus of Rs 20.03bn in the first four months of FY 2022/23, compared to a deficit of Rs 150.38bn in the same period of FY 2021/22.
Meanwhile, the forex reserve increased by 2.5 percent to Rs Rs 1246.27bn in mid-Nov 2022 from Rs 1215.80bn in mid-July 2022. In US dollar terms, the gross forex reserve increased one percent to 9.63bn in mid-Nov from 9.54bn in mid-July this year.
The current forex reserve, according to the central bank, is sufficient to cover the merchandise imports of 9.7 months, and merchandise and services imports of 8.4 months.
Similarly, remittance inflow has increased by 20.4 percent in the first four months against a decline of seven percent in the last fiscal. Nepal has received remittances worth Rs 378.04bn till mid-Nov 2022.
Customs revenue down by 29 percent
With a 20.71 percent decrease in the country’s imports decreasing, the customs revenue has also declined in the first five months of the current fiscal year. The new foreign trade statistics released by the Department of Customs (DoC) on Thursday show the customs revenue has shrunk by 29 percent.
DoC collected revenue worth Rs 154.13bn in the first five months of the current fiscal year compared to Rs 217.33bn in the corresponding period of the last fiscal year. The customs revenue has been affected due to the import restrictions on four-wheelers and motorcycles above 150 cc and mobile handsets costing over $300, that have higher share in government revenue collection.
Trade deficit decreases by 18 percent
The country’s trade deficit has decreased by 18.77 percent in the first five months of the current fiscal year. According to the data released by the Customs Department, the country’s total trade deficit is Rs 597.44bn in the first five months of the current fiscal year compared to Rs 735.48bn during the same period of FY 2021/22. The decline in trade deficit is attributed to the shrunk in the country’s total foreign trade (both exports and imports) which went down by 22.23 percent in the review period.
Top 10 import items
With the slowdown in economic activities and the overall market demand as a persistently high inflation rate and a squeeze in liquidity in the financial put a dent in the pockets of consumers, the imports of industrial materials, electronic and electrical equipment, vehicles, cereals, telecom equipment, and pharmaceutical products have declined in this fiscal.
Top 10 export items
The exports of edible oils, basically refined palm oil and soybean oil, have taken a beating in this fiscal year. The good news is exports of iron and steel have surged by a whopping 494.7 percent.
BoP Surplus of Rs 20.03bn
The country’s balance of payment (BoP) is at a surplus of Rs 20.03bn in the first four months of the current fiscal year.
Slight improvement in forex reserves
Nepal’s forex reserves increased by 2.5 percent in the first four months of the current fiscal year.
Remittance inflow surged by 20.4 percent
Remittance inflow has increased by 20.4 percent to Rs 378.04 billion in the first four months of the current fiscal year.
Tourism income up by 137 percent
With the fast recovery in footfalls of international visitors in the country, earnings from tourism reached Rs 17.95bn in the first four months of FY 2022/23, compared to Rs 7.57bn during the same period of FY 2021/22.
Inflation still at higher side
The consumer inflation is at 8.08 percent till mid-Nov. Food and beverage inflation stood at 7.38 percent whereas non-food and service inflation rose to 8.63 percent. Under the food and beverage category, the price of restaurants & hotels has increased by 15.97 percent, tobacco products by 11.81 percent, milk products and eggs by 9.33 percent, cereal grains & their products by 9.19 percent, and alcoholic drinks by 8.84 percent.
Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin dies aged 96
Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin died on Wednesday at the age of 96 of leukaemia and multiple organ failure, Chinese state media reported, according to Reuters.
Jiang died at 12:13 p.m. (0413 GMT) in his home city of Shanghai, the official Xinhua news agency said, publishing a letter to the Chinese people by the ruling Communist Party, parliament, Cabinet and the military announcing the death.
"Comrade Jiang Zemin's death is an incalculable loss to our Party and our military and our people of all ethnic groups," the letter read, saying the announcement was made with "profound grief".
It described "our beloved Comrade Jiang Zemin" as an outstanding leader of high prestige, a great Marxist, statesman, military strategist and diplomat and a long-tested communist fighter, Reuters reported.
Jiang was plucked from obscurity to head China's ruling Communist Party after the bloody Tiananmen crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in 1989, but broke the country out of its subsequent diplomatic isolation, mending fences with the United States and overseeing an unprecedented economic boom.
Qatar eliminated after Netherlands and Ecuador draw
The Netherlands survived Ecuador onslaught to eke out a 1-1 draw in their second Group A match at the Khalifa International stadium to remain in contention for the Round of 16 spot. Ecuador too remained in the race but the result eliminated hosts Qatar from the ongoing FIFA World Cup 2022 on Friday, The Times of India reported.
Qatar became the first team to crash out of the tournament. The Dutch and Ecuador each have four points, Senegal have three. Qatar are without a point after they lost their opening game 0-2 to Ecuador and then went down 1-3 to Senegal earlier on Friday. They cannot qualify whatever happens in their final match against the Dutch on Tuesday.
The Netherlands took an early lead in the game with Cody Gakpo scoring the fastest goal of the tournament in the sixth minute, but their dominance did not last long. The goal spurred Ecuador to up their game and dictated the terms especially in the second half. The equalising goal for the South American side came early in the second half when their talismanic skipper Enner Valencia scored his third goal of the tournament in the 49th minute.
Ecuador kept pressing for the winner and registered as many as 15 shots on goal in the game with four on target, while the Dutch managed just two attempts including the early goal.
Valencia, 33, tapped in his third goal of the tournament from a rebound in the second half after Cody Gakpo had put the Dutch ahead in the sixth minute with a sizzling shot.Ecuador had a subdued first half as Louis van Gaal's side looked comfortable but unhurried. But the South Americans, roared on by a large yellow-clad contingent at the Khalifa International Stadium, stepped up a gear in the second half and could have won it when Gonzalo Plata's strike hit the crossbar.
Plato thrashed a powerful shot onto the woodwork in the 59th minute as the South Americans went from strength to strength, consistently hustling the Dutch off the ball by applying a physically-demanding press that did not allow their opponents to play their usual flowing game.
It had started out most promising for the Dutch, looking for their second win of the tournament that would have ensured they were the first team to qualify for the knockout stages, when Gakpo scored.A stray ball back to his defence by Moises Caicedo was stolen by Davy Klaassen, who then left Gakpo take over possession and slam a left-footed rocket into the net.
But that was as good as it got for Louis van Gaal's side. Valencia's clever pass in the 24th minute sent Caicedo away down the left and, although his touch was heavy and allowed the Dutch to intercept, it provoked a burst of noise from the large number of their fans that injected energy into the Ecuador players, according to The Times of India. Valencia cut inside to fire a shot that forced a full stretch save out of Dutch goalkeeper Andries Noppert soon after the half hour mark and, as they kept up the pressure, Ecuador had the ball in the back of the net in first half stoppage time as Pervis Estupinan deflected the ball home. However, it was ruled out because Jackson Porozo was both offside and standing in front of the goalkeeper and blocking his line of sight. The equaliser four minutes into the second half was always on the cards, as Ecuador stole possession in midfield and fed Estupinan for a stinging shot on the left that Noppert did well to parry but with Valencia pouncing on the rebound. The 33-year-old, who went off near the end of the game, has now netted Ecuador's last six World Cup finals goals – three at the 2014 tournament in Brazil and three in Qatar.