Submit your Article

Lockdown is considered the most effective way to contain the community spread of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19).

Countries like Italy, the United Kingdom, France, India, among others, are under complete lockdown. Japan and South Korea are under pressure to implement it in toto. “When it comes to containing the novel coronavirus, there really is no other viable option,” says Dr Khem Karki, a public health expert at Ministry of Health and Population while urging all Nepalis to strictly follow lockdown rules. Thankfully, compared to India, other South Asian countries have witnessed relatively fewer infections.

Initially, Nepal had announced a week-long lockdown, which has now been extended by another week. People are starting to question: Will this lockdown be extended indefinitely? Government sources do not have a definite answer. They say the lockdown will be under constant review and will be relaxed if the corona risk drops. Says Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Pokhrel who is leading Nepal’s fight against Covid-19, “We are closely following developments. We cannot actually say how long it [the lockdown] will go.”  

The duration of Nepal’s lockdown will also depend on how the situation evolves in India. With China well on its way to containing the virus, and given its strict travel restrictions, there is less of a threat to Nepal from the north. But due to the open border and the provision of free movement of people across it, Nepal will have a harder time controlling the spread of the coronavirus from India.

“If the number of cases remain static, Nepal might think of easing the lockdown. But that too will take around a month. Also, if there is an increase in cases in India, Nepal would be bound to keep the borders shut and prolong the lockdown,” says Pramod Jaiswal, Research Director at Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE). “I also don’t see any possibility of resumption of international flights to major affected countries anytime soon.”

In the worst-case scenario in India, more and more Nepali migrant workers will look to enter Nepal, lockdown or not. Conversely, if India can keep the number of positive corona cases low, most of them are likely to stay put there and thus the pressure on Nepal will ease considerably.

But what kind of indications are we getting from India? On current evidence, could its lockdown be extended beyond 21 days? According to the Press Information Bureau of India, the country’s official press agency, “There are rumors and media reports, claiming that government will extend the lockdown when it expires. The cabinet secretary has denied these reports, and stated that they are baseless.”

Earlier, the research of Ronojoy Adhikari and Rajesh Singh of University of Cambridge had shown that India’s 21-day lockdown was inadequate and that it could go up to 49 days. Indian officials, however, say they currently have no plans to extend the 21-day window. However, they have not completely ruled out an extension as well.

Usually, the symptoms of the novel coronavirus emerge within 14 days after people get infected. So if those with the virus have already entered the country, they will show some symptoms within this period. If not, there is no risk from them. As Nepal has already banned all international air travel until April 15, the bigger challenge will again come from the porous land borders with India.

Infectious disease physician Dr Anup Subedi says removal of lockdown depends on the progress on testing, isolation and contact tracing. “Additional testing kits and logistics have just arrived. Now we will do more tests, which in turn will help us determine the gravity of the matter,” he say. “But no, I do not think two weeks will be sufficient to contain the novel coronavirus in Nepal. Yes, what we can do is take additional measures to ease people’s daily lives should there be an extension of the lockdown deadline.” 

Dr Subedi also says there is a strong case to be made for continued restriction on the movement of people across the border and to allow only essential supplies.

Despite the request of the Nepal government to stay put wherever they are, Nepali migrant workers continue to flock just across the border. Many of those who have gotten to enter the country have not implemented the 14-day isolation rules either. Even for the stranded ones, the government of Nepal has no option but to allow its citizens to enter their country.

“It is insensitive on the part of both Nepal and India not to take back their citizens stranded along the Indo-Nepal border,” says Uddhab Pyakurel, an assistant professor at Kathmandu University and a researcher on India-Nepal border. Yet that could pose a huge challenge if those who enter cannot be quarantined.

Additionally, thousands of Nepali migrant workers in various parts of India are struggling. The Indian government has pledged to provide them with basic necessities. But they are not convinced and want to get back to their homeland as soon as possible.

No one should be surprised if the complexities of people-to-people ties and an open border between Nepal and India lead to a further extension to Nepal’s novel coronavirus lockdown.

From Donald Trump in the US to Narendra Modi in India, government executive heads are leading their respective country’s Covid-19 response. They drive the virus response, make important announcements, and try to keep the public morale high.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had also been at the forefront of his country’s corona response before he himself contracted the disease. Should he become incapable of working, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will take over important responsibilities, including the corona response.

But here in Nepal, even though Prime Minister KP Oli is recuperating from a kidney transplant operation, and could need rest for at least another six months, he has designated no heir-apparent to take up his responsibilities in his absence. He refuses to even temporarily hand over his responsibilities. Former Chief Secretary Bimal Koirala says it will be difficult for the government to make timely decisions without the prime minister’s active participation.

Since the corona outbreak, the prime minister has addressed the country just once. Last week he issued a short message on social media asking people to work from home as he was also working from his Baluwatar residence. Although PM Oli has tasked a committee led by Deputy Prime Minister Ishwar Pokhrel to deal with the corona crisis, the prime minister has not delegated decision-making to the deputy prime minister or any other minister.

PM Oli’s advisors say the executive head is still presiding over cabinet meetings when necessary and giving needed instructions. So there really is no need to worry.

In an interview with Nepalkhabar.com earlier this week, Prime Minister’s Political Advisor Bishnu Rimal ruled out any possibility that the kidney transplant would keep the prime minister away from work for long. “The prime minister has no problem holding cabinet meetings and coming to quick decisions,” he says.

But at the time of his discharge from hospital following the transplant, the prime minister’s medical team had said that Oli could take around six months to be active again and had advised complete rest. Some days later, PM Oli was admitted at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital after having difficulty with his breathing. He was discharged after 24 hours.

Doctors have already said that even limited activity is bad for Oli’s health. Yet there does not seem to be much coordination among other top Nepal Communist Party leaders on filling Oli’s perceived void.  

According to political analyst Puranjan Acharya, even in normal times, a country like Nepal without robust state mechanisms needs a strong executive head—and even more so during crisis. Even with the active corona response of other prime ministers and presidents around the world, he says, “they are still failing. In our case, the PM is almost inactive and state mechanisms are not working. Making things worse, those in the government are involved in blame games.”

Acharya reckons cabinet members are ineffective in the absence of clear directions from the top. If things continue this way, the Oli government “will not be able to handle the escalating corona crisis.”

The absence of the prime minister’s strong command has already been felt in the past three months since the coronavirus started spreading around the world. Nepal found itself without test kits, protective equipment for healthcare workers and basic medicine. Vital supply chains were broken. Lack of coordination has been apparent both within the ministry of health as well as between the provincial assemblies and local governments.

“The lack of PM’s direct and active leadership has already been seen in the fight against coronavirus,” says Krishna Pokhrel, another political analyst. “Before going for kidney transplant, the PM had formed a committee led by DPM Pokhrel. But the committee failed to list out necessities and buy them from abroad. Similarly, there was no preparation to set up test labs outside Kathmandu valley.” Pokhrel thinks the mechanism Oli has in place to deal with the corona crisis is not working.

Acharya says the absence of the prime minister’s active leadership has led to anarchism in the bureaucracy and complete non-cooperation by private hospitals.

“In this time of crisis, we have to work at war-footing, with the bureaucracy, the security forces, the opposition parties and the civil society working together. But that is not happening. The trust in cabinet ministers is dwindling, which is a matter of worry,” he says. As worrying, Acharya adds, even the kind of international support Nepal received in the aftermath of the 2015 earthquake has been missing. 

Alternatively, Sajha Party led by former journalist Rabindra Mishra has submitted a memorandum to the government proposing a joint political mechanism to fight coronavirus.

Since the outbreak, there has been just one all-party meeting chaired by DPM Pokhrel. All political parties support the government’s fight against coronavirus. But they would also like to see more initiative and direction from the top.

The federal government has instructed local governments to arrange food for the poor people dependent on daily wages. The high-level Covid-19 Prevention and Coordination Committee led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Ishwar Pokhrel urged local governments to identify those people, and provide them with relief packages. 

The streets are empty. Industries are closed. Construction-related works and public transport have been halted. These sectors provide employment to a large number of daily-wage workers. There are also other vulnerable groups such as farmers, senior citizens, widows and those with disabilities who need immediate relief packages.

Earlier, issuing a press statement, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba urged the government to bring immediate relief. “I urge the government to bring relief package to low-income job holders, other workers and students living in rented apartments in Kathmandu,” said Deuba. 

The Kathmandu Metropolitan City has started the process of collection of data of poor people in the city. According to the KMC, all ward committees have been instructed to collect data of daily-wage workers, people living in the street, and those without shelter.  According to Namaraj Dhakal, chief of Administration Department of the KMC, they will provide relief packages to those people after they collect data from all wards. Other some local governments have already started relief packages for the poor. 

Much of the world was unprepared for the Covid-19 pandemic. Nepal wasn’t either. But we could have been better prepared had the federal healthcare system not been botched right from the start. In the old unitary set-up, there was a clear chain of command. As Dr. Sushil Nath Pyakurel, former Director General of the Department of Health District, put it to APEX, under the old set-up, “health offices directly supervised health posts and sub-health posts. Regional health offices supervised and monitored district health offices. The Ministry of Health and Population and its departments in turn monitored the regional health offices.” 
In the federal set-up, there are just 6-7 hospitals under the direct supervision of the federal government and the rest are divided between the federal and local governments.

As there is no clear chain of command, there is a lot of duplication of work. For instance, instead of cooperating to build robust coronavirus quarantine facilities, the provincial and local units have now built their own ramshackle ones. The provincial and local healthcare facilities are understaffed, and short of ideas. Even when they have budget they are incapable of procuring medicines and vaccines without federal-level supervision.  

This is why, argues Dr Pyakurel, all healthcare systems should be centrally commanded. He proposes establishing Centers for Disease Control as well as well-equipped medical labs at the center, and in each of the seven provinces. For this, he emphasizes, there is a need for clear political commitment.

In the view of Nepal’s former Health Minister Gagan Kumar Thapa, a change in mindset is vital. “The 2015 earthquake taught us that we were short on long-term disaster planning and in dealing with health issues in such cases.” Thapa thus proposed a Mass Causality Center under the ministry, which would be operated with the help of security agencies. The proposal was forwarded to the finance ministry. “But nothing happened thereafter,” Thapa laments. “Such a center could have simultaneously treated thousands of patients.” 

Perhaps regional cooperation is a better idea in dealing with this kind of cross-border problems? Indian Prime Minister Modi called a special video-conference of SAARC leaders to chalk out common strategies on the coronavirus. Nepal pledged $1 million to the emergency SAARC fund set up after the conference. Yet the lukewarm response of Pakistan suggests the initiative will struggle to take off. Yet there is also no alternative. If there cannot be wholesale cooperation at the SAARC level, the eight countries can perhaps work together on select issues like climate change and pandemics that impact them all alike. 

More pandemics are likely in the days ahead. The Ebola in West Africa earlier this decade prompted many countries to take steps to fight large-scale epidemics but when the outbreak was controlled, their preparations were shelved too. As a long-term measure, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli has instructed the Ministry of Health to start the process of building a separate hospital to deal with pandemics. 

But piecemeal solutions won’t do. Modern-day health challenges call for innovative and collaborative ones. There is a desperate need to coordinate the response to infectious diseases both at national and regional levels.