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Ahead of the third edition of the joint Nepal-China military drills in Nepal planned for August-September, Nepal Army Chief Purna Chandra Thapa is leaving on a week-long China visit starting June 16. Thapa is going at the invitation of China’s People’s Liberation Army, in what will be his first China trip as the CoAS. During the visit, there is likely to be new impetus on implementation of past agreements on military cooperation between the two armies, with a focus on humanitarian efforts and disaster relief, said an NA source. Shambhu Kattel

By Shankar Prasad Khanal | Nepalgunj

 Around midnight on June 3, the police caught seven people red-handed with what turned out to be Rs 3.8 million in bribe money in Hotel Batika in Nepalgunj. Those arrested had taken bribes from Nepali applicants to the Indian army by promising them recruit­ment, and had leaked ques­tion papers of the qualifying exams.Nepali citizens who have passed the Secondary Edu­cation Examination and are between the ages of 17.5 and 21 are eligible to apply for the Indian army. Many Nepalis apply, as the job offers a lucra­tive monthly salary of around Rs 50,000.

Currently, there are 42,000 Nepalis serving in the Indian army. Depending on the need, the recruitment process takes place once or twice a year at five centers in Nepal—Nepal­gunj and Butwal in Province 5, Pokhara in Province 4, Chit­wan in Province 3, and Dharan in Province 1.

This year in Nepalgunj, 896 applicants sat for a written examination between May 30 and June 4, and 447 of them cleared it. Even though one of the exams was going to be held on the morning of June 4, between 400 to 500 peo­ple were seen at Hotel Batika the previous midnight, which raised suspicion.

When the police raided the hotel, they found 85 mobile phone sets besides the Rs 3.8 million in cash in the posses­sion of the seven arrestees. It is suspected that on an average an applicant paid Rs 200,000 in bribe; others might have paid as much as Rs 500,000.

Even if each of the 447 appli­cants who cleared the exam gave Rs 300,000 in bribe, the total amount would exceed Rs 130 million. “It seems the tar­get was to raise Rs 100 million that night. We could not catch some culprits because they ran away,” says Bhim Rana, an eye-witness and Banke district chairman of Nepal Retired Sainik Committee. The inci­dent has revealed the extent of the fraud in the Indian army recruitment process.

Rana says, “People pay between Rs 100,000 to Rs 500,000 for a leaked ques­tion paper. An additional Rs 500,000 is asked from appli­cants if they clear the medical entrance exam at Gorakhpur, India. Some applicants and their parents have revealed that getting recruited to the Indian army costs at least Rs 800,000. Fraud of such a scale is not possible without the involvement of a criminal ring.”

Training centers for Indian army recruitment have opened up in several cities of Nepal. Many have invest­ments from retired Indian army personnel. The police have informed that of the seven people who have been arrested, five are retired Indian army officers who were running such training centers. Nepal Retired Sainik Commit­tee suspected irregularities last year, but could not catch anyone red-handed.

Spokesperson for the dis­trict police office DSP Prakash Sapkota says, “Those who were involved in calling the applicants to Hotel Batika to receive the leaked question paper in return for bribes are now under investigation.”

The committee organized a press conference on June 8 in Nepalgunj, in which it accused the police of investigating the matter slowly and even trying to protect the guilty.

 With the average age of a Nepali government only nine months in the past three decades, leaders of big parties are not used to staying out of power for long. After playing second fiddle to KP Sharma Oli for the past 13 months, no wonder the by nature impatient Pushpa Kamal Dahal has had enough.

 On May 29, the eve of PM Oli’s India visit, Dahal leaked the secret agreement he had with Oli on power-sharing, whereby the two NCP co-chairs would be the prime minister for two-and-a-half years each. If the message was still lost on someone, Dahal went on national television on the same day to stake his claim on government leadership.

 Dahal has given Oli a choice: give him the PM’s chair after a year or make him the ‘consensual’ party chairman following next year’s Gen- eral Convention. If only things were so easy. Oli is in no mood to vacate the PM’s seat soon, nor to give up party chairmanship easily.

 He knows that if he agrees to make Dahal a parallel power center, it is only a matter of time before the newly formed NCP splits. Even if it doesn’t, with the canny political operator in Dahal in a position of power, Oli’s hold on the party will significantly weaken. Yet Dahal’s backers in the party are adamant that the agreement must be followed in letter and spirit.

 Why did Dahal disclose the agreement now though? One, on the eve of Oli’s India visit, he was sending a reminder to New Delhi that Oli is only a caretaker prime minister and he will soon assume power in Kathmandu. Two, he must have felt that without such timely reminders, to stakeholders both at home and abroad, Oli would not leave easily.

 Dahal has been trying to take India into confidence by claiming only he can get the Madhesis on board. It does not help that New Delhi sees PM Oli as ‘pro-China’. According to one seasoned New Delhi-based Nepali diplomat, a more muscular Indian government plans to take up the Madhesi cause again and get tough on ‘China-leaning’ Oli. Fighting a two-front war will be tough on the ailing prime minister.

As Dahal angles for greater power, the ruling NCP plunges deeper into uncertainty

Pushpa Kamal Dahal may want to ensure that he gets to lead either the NCP or the government after a year, but there are other players in the game too. Even if he gets Oli’s support, it is far from certain that other senior NCP leaders would accept Dahal’s leadership

 No more guesswork. Now it is clear that Nepal Commu­nist Party (NCP) co-chairs, KP Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Pra­chanda’, do actually have a pow­er-sharing agreement. But how will it be translated into action in the coming days? As per the agreement, Oli and Dahal would lead the party and the government for equal time. This means that half-way through Oli’s term in government, he would hand over the prime minister’s post to Dahal. Alternatively, if Oli wants to lead the government for a full five-year term, he should hand over party leadership to Dahal, ending the interim arrangement of having two chairs. Oli has also pledged to support Dahal in the NCP’s Gen­eral Convention, which is man­dated to elect party chair and other officer bearers.

Until two weeks ago, the existence of an agreement on power-sharing between the two leaders was only speculation. Now that the ‘secret’ agreement has been leaked, the rel­evant question is not whether such an agreement exists, but whether Dahal is more likely to be the party president or the prime minister. Or will there be some other twist in the NCP tale? Party insiders say the han­dover of party leadership to Dahal is not going to be easy due to the NCP’s internal dynamics.

The agreement should be implemented in its letter and spirit. There is no question of reneging on it

NCP leader Devendra Poudel

Un-conventional wisdom

Oli is not ready to give up power after two and half years, and wants to lead the government for the full five years. He is consolidating power in party and state mechanisms. His strategy, according to leaders, is to maintain the status quo in the party, which means putting off the General Convention as that would ease pressure on him to loosen his grip on power. It’s the GC that elects the party chair, but given the state of confusion in the party it won’t be easy to hold it, as scheduled, in the next 15 months.

The intra-party dynamics are fluid. Another senior leader Madhav Kumar Nepal, who has the organiza­tional strength to challenge both Oli and Dahal, is also vying for party leadership. As APEX reported two weeks ago, Oli has already started placating both Dahal and Nepal in order to prevent a possible gang up against him. Both want Oli’s sup­port, but the possibility of them ganging up against Oli cannot be ruled out.

Nepal has publicly said that he was unaware of the agreement between Oli and Dahal. This means other party leaders may not take ownership of the agreement as well. Nepal, in an attempt to appease Oli, has also said that the current prime minister would be in office for five years.

On the other hand, another senior leader Bamdev Gautam has publicly backed the agreement, arguing that Dahal would become prime min­ister after the current government completes two and half years. Alter­nately, a few months ago, Gautam has proposed in a party meeting that Oli should lead the government and Dahal the party, ending the dual chair system. “The agreement should be implemented, otherwise it would affect party unity,” Gautam said again at a public program this week.

India the guarantor

The timing of the agreement’s leak and Dahal’s interview with a televi­sion channel disclosing it in clearer terms is meaningful. The agreement was made public on May 29 on the eve of PM Oli’s India visit. Dahal had also informed the Indian lead­ership about his agreement with Oli during his India visit last year. In an interview with The Hindustan Times then, Dahal was asked: “What is the specific understanding? Has Oli com­mitted that he would give you either the PM or the party chair, or both, in two years?” Dahal had replied, “The spirit of the understanding is one of those two positions.” In response to a follow-up question—“What if Oli doesn’t?”—Dahal had answered, “We will see then. Right now, we will move with full sincerity. I am mov­ing forward with that. I told Indian leaders that too.”

Dahal’s statements then and now clearly show that he sees India as an external guarantor in his attempt to ascend to power.

The party rank and file was not aware of the Oli-Dahal agreement, whose revelation has caused a stir within the NCP. Its leaders have started saying that there should be intra-party discussions about the agreement, and expressed unhappiness that top leaders kept them in the dark about such an important pact.

Oli has conceded that he had an agreement on power-sharing with Dahal. But he wanted to keep it a secret, as announcing specific dead­lines would make his government look like a caretaker one.

“It is no big deal. There is an agreement between the two leaders on power-sharing and that’s what Prachanda said,” NCP leader Deven­dra Poudel, who is close to Dahal, told APEX. “The agreement should be implemented in its letter and spirit. There is no question of not implementing it,” added Poudel. Another NCP leader close to Dahal said, “It was necessary to inform party leaders and cadres about the agreement. If Dahal had raised this issue at the eleventh hour, it would have sowed confusion in the party.”

Dahal also wanted to warn Oli that he is not free to monopolize party leadership and should hand over party leadership after two and half years. Dahal thought that would put Oli under pressure to clarify his posi­tion. “Prachanda was compelled to broach the issue after PM Oli time and again stated that this govern­ment would serve a full five-year term,” said the NCP leader quoted above.

Around the time of party uni­fication, there was an agreement between Oli and Dahal that they would chair party meetings on a rotational basis and that Oli would focus on the government while Dahal would be entrusted more with party-related tasks. However, the agreement was not implemented and Dahal was left playing second fiddle to Oli. Leaders say the spirit of the unification was that both leaders would have equal status in the party.

Dahal and his supporters have also started voicing criticism against the government, arguing that such a strong government has failed to deliver, resulting in frustration among citizens.

Dahal may want to be either the prime minister or the party chair­man, but there are other players in the game too. Even if he gets Oli’s support, it is far from certain that other senior NCP leaders—Madhav Nepal, Bishnu Poudel and Ishwar Pokhrel, among others—would accept Dahal’s leadership.

 On May 30, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Narendra Modi took the oath as India’s prime minister, to start his second five-year term. In his first term, there were several ups and down in Nepal-India rela­tions. There are thus concerns over how bilateral relations will evolve in the days ahead. Before discussing this, it would perhaps be worthwhile to remind ourselves of some hiccups in Nepal-India ties during the first terms of Modi and his Nepali coun­terpart, KP Oli.

After the 1990 political change in Nepal, Oli was regarded as a leader close to the Indian establishment. But during the 2015 Indian block­ade, he took a strong anti-blockade stand, with the support of leaders from across the political spectrum as well as a large section of the peo­ple. Even after the blockade end­ed, the relationship between Oli and the Indian political leadership remained strained. Some Indian leaders blamed Oli of playing the old ‘China card’ against India. Oli, mean­while, thought India wanted him out of power at any cost.

In May 2016, then PM Oli report­edly urged President Bidya Devi Bhandari to cancel her scheduled visit to India, which added to the mistrust. According to knowledge­able sources, the visit was cancelled as Oli thought India was trying to ‘topple his government’. Earlier, Nepali Ambassador to India, Deep Kumar Upadhyay, was recalled for allegedly being a part of the same ‘conspiracy’.

When the Oli-led government was toppled, Oli blamed India for cob­bling together the Nepali Congress (NC)-Maoist (Center) alliance. Come the three-tier elections in 2017, Oli and his communist alliance exploit­ed the ‘Indian interference’ to the hilt. And soon after the left alliance won the parliamentary elections, Oli went to Rasuwagadi on the border with China and inspected possible road and rail routes to the northern neighbor, again to India’s displeasure.

Deficit of trust

All these developments only add­ed to the mistrust between Nepal and India. But soon India seemed to have realized the folly of its hardline approach and started appeasing Oli, if only to halt his tilt toward China. Following the parliamentary elec­tions, India dispatched its foreign minister Sushma Swaraj to congratu­late Oli even before he was appoint­ed prime minister.

The climate of cordiality did not last, and Oli’s relationship with India started deteriorating again. First, Nepal cancelled the 2018 joint BIMS­TEC military drills in Pune, India, at the eleventh hour. India saw this as another instance of Oli’s pro-China bias. Of late, the joint Nepal-India Eminent Persons Group (EPG) report on revision of old treaties became a bone of contention, with Modi sup­posedly not all that keen to receive it.

In this backdrop, foreign policy experts believe building trust by tackling pending issues between the two governments should be an immediate priority.

Oli is under domestic pressure to convince India to receive the EPG report and implement it without delay. In its election manifesto, the left alliance had promised to revise the 1950 Peace and Friendship Trea­ty and other ‘unequal’ treaties with India. But it is not going to be easy as India is not in favor of fundamental changes, even though it promises to address Nepal’s grievances.

Dr. Pramod Jaiswal, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies and a foreign-policy expert, foresees no major changes in India’s Nepal poli­cy. “But the Modi government will be more assertive abroad,” he argues. He adds India still believes Nepal and Bhutan fall under its exclusive sphere of influence and does not brook the presence of any third par­ty here, including China.

 BRI: Elephant in the room

China’s growing presence in Nepal is expected to add to India’s asser­tiveness. India had put pressure on Nepal not to sign the BRI Mem­orandum of Understanding (MoU) in 2017, but to no avail. India is still concerned about Nepal’s selection of projects under the BRI.

“India will not object to small BRI projects in Nepal but build­ing critical infrastructures such as railways, highways and big dams that have security implications will be of concern,” says Jaiswal. India has been maintaining that the proposed Keyrung-Kathmandu rail line should not be extended to Lumbini on the Indian border for security reasons.

Nepal is likely to face more Indian pressure on China. Yes, relations between India and China have improved following the informal Wuhan summit in 2017. But observ­ers say, chances are India and the US will increasingly work together to counteract the BRI and Chinese investment in Nepal.

With Modi’s reelection, there also are concerns about India’s approach to Nepal’s internal pol­itics. In the past year or so, India has maintained a studied silence on this, as interference in Nepal has been one of the main irritants in bilateral relations.

India may not maintain the same level of silence in the days ahead. A seasoned Nepali diplomat who has had extensive contact with the Indians says Madhes-based parties’ demand to amend the constitution will get more vocal. “As in 2015, India, especially its bureaucracy, is likely to stand in favor of those demands, and for greater accom­modation of Madhesi forces within the constitutional framework,” he says. Similarly, there are concerns in New Delhi regarding Oli’s con­centration of political power, par­ticularly in matters of foreign and defense policies.

PM Oli will try his best to remain in power with Indian support, while his party’s co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal will also try to worm his way back into Singhadurbar with the support of the same southern neigh­bor. This became evident when the secret power-transfer agreement between Oli and Dahal was leaked to the press on the eve of PM Oli’s latest India visit, perhaps to give the message that Oli is only a caretaker prime minister.

The victory of the Hindu national­ist BJP in the recent Indian elections has also emboldened Hindu forces in Nepal. They know of how New Delhi had put the Nepali leadership under tremendous pressure not to incorporate secularism in the new Nepali charter. In their reckoning, neither the BJP’s nor Modi’s core Hindu agenda has changed.

“Modi cannot impose the Hin­du agenda on Nepal. Yet there are concerns among the BJP leader­ship about forced conversions in Nepal,” says a formally-New Delhi based Nepali diplomat requesting anonymity.

More than this, the health of Nepal-India relations will be deter­mined by India’s willingness (or lack thereof) to resolve old issues like high trade imbalance, inundation in border areas, additional air routes, and border demarcation disputes.