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India has been closely engaging with the Sushila Karki-led interim government since its formation. New Delhi was the first to welcome her leadership. On Sept 18, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Karki, expressing India’s readiness to “work closely to further strengthen the special ties between the two countries” and reaffirming India’s support for Nepal’s efforts to restore peace and stability.

Although the Karki government is interim and time-bound, New Delhi is working with it as a full partner: signing key agreements, convening bilateral mechanisms, and facilitating high-level exchanges. Ministers have been traveling to New Delhi, and diplomatic activity in Kathmandu has intensified. 

This week, Munu Mahawar, additional Secretary at India’s Ministry of External Affairs, visited Kathmandu, the first high-level foreign official to do so after the Sept 8–9 GenZ protests.  He met Prime Minister Karki and all cabinet ministers, pledging India’s logistical support for the March 5 elections. Notably, Mahawar did not meet leaders of the major political parties, even though the Indian Embassy continues to quietly engage with the broader political spectrum. 

Many members of the international community in Kathmandu remain hesitant to meet political leaders publicly. According to leaders, New Delhi has been encouraging them to view the March 5 elections as the only credible path to ending the current political deadlock. 

The Karki government has also signaled goodwill toward India by not recalling Nepal’s Ambassador to New Delhi, Shankar Sharma, despite recalling ambassadors to 11 other countries, including China, the US, and the UK. 

Oli’s exit from power may also have been welcomed in strategic circles in New Delhi, where he had long been perceived as leaning toward Beijing. As Kathmandu’s engagement with Beijing has slowed and the US has taken a low-key approach to Nepal’s internal political developments, Nepal–India ties have grown significantly stronger.

Since the formation of the Sushila Karki–led government following  Sept 8–9 protests, there has been minimal engagement between Kathmandu and Beijing. In the aftermath of the GenZ protests, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Chen Song met Prime Minister Sushila Karki and other government ministers to convey Beijing’s concerns, but there have been no high-level visits between Kathmandu and Beijing. 

Typically, October, November and December see a high number of visits as part of preparations for the coming year. This time, however, not only have the visits from China declined, but overall Chinese activities have also slowed. A China watcher noted, “Beijing may be in a wait-and-see position as the political developments unfold in Nepal.”

Similarly, Beijing’s viewpoint may be that since the current government cannot take major policy decisions, it is better to wait for the new government to be formed after the elections. According to people familiar with the matter, Beijing has conveyed two messages to Nepal following the GenZ protests. First, what happened on Sept 8–9 and the political course that followed is Nepal’s internal affair. Second, China has strongly raised its security concerns due to the open involvement of some Tibetan groups in those protests.

Over the past decade, China’s political, economic and security influence in Nepal has grown, increasing Beijing’s confidence that any government in power will refrain from jeopardizing its security interests related to Tibetan activities. However, the events of September have renewed Beijing’s worries.

Thus, after the GenZ movement, Beijing is experiencing both confidence and insecurity regarding its security interests. China is now closely monitoring the activities of the Tibetan community as well as broader political developments, including cabinet formation. Beijing believes that there can be no substantial progress on the Belt and Road Initiative under the current government. For this reason, China has adopted a policy of maintaining only a working relationship with the new government, with a special emphasis on security concerns. During this period, several Chinese delegations visited Nepal to study the Genz movement and assess potential challenges to bilateral relations. 

Nepal concluded its participation at the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) with a very small team of around 20 negotiating officials. 

From securing global recognition for mountain ecosystems to amplifying the voice of vulnerable nations, Nepal’s delegation—though small—played a strategic and coordinated role throughout the two-week summit in Belém, Brazil.

According to Maheshwar Dhakal, joint-secretary at the Ministry of Forests and Environment and Nepal’s national focal point for the UNFCCC, the country’s presence at COP30 was marked by “strong leadership, intensive engagement, and historic outcomes” for its long-pursued mountain agenda.

COP30 opened with a series of preparatory sessions starting Nov 4—LDC Group meetings on Nov 4–5, Leaders’ Summit on Nov 6–7, and G77 and China consultations on Nov 8–9. The main negotiations ran from Nov 10–21, with discussions extending unofficially until Nov 22.

Nepal’s delegation, led by Agriculture and Livestock Development Minister Madan Prasad Pariyar participated in a number of engagements. Supported by senior officials including MOFE Secretary Rajendra Prasad Mishra, OPMCM Secretary Govinda Karki, MoALD Secretary Deepak Kharal, and Nepal’s Ambassador to Brazil Nirmal Kafley, the team included representatives from government, civil society, academia, and the media.

The highlight of Nepal’s COP30 engagement was the successful global recognition of the mountain agenda, an advocacy effort pursued jointly with Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan.

Nepal held two rounds of consultations with the COP30 Presidency, resulting in three major achievements. First on agreement to hold an Annual Dialogue on Mountains and Climate Change, beginning at SB64 in June 2026. The second one on inclusion of mountain ecosystems in the Global Mutirão (Mutirão) decision text, the main outcome document of COP30.

And the third on recognition of the mountain agenda in the preamble of the COP30 cover decision, as well as in the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) text.

Dhakal noted that this was “the strongest visibility that mountain issues have ever received at the UNFCCC,” indicating that years of persistent diplomacy had finally begun to pay off.

Nepal backed three key declarations proposed by the COP30 Presidency. Tropical Forest Facility Forever, Integrated Fire Management Declaration, Sustainable Fossil Fuel Management Declaration are on the list. Officials said these positions align with Nepal’s commitments to forest conservation and climate-resilient development.

Minister Pariyar delivered Nepal’s national statement at the high-level plenary, emphasizing the urgent need to protect vulnerable communities in the Himalayas. He also participated in 11 high-level events, including Nepal’s flagship program, “Sagarmatha to Belém”.

MOFE Secretary Mishra spoke at the Leader Summit and presented a joint statement on behalf of Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan at the opening plenary, highlighting the shared vulnerabilities of Himalayan and South Asian nations.

OPMCM Secretary Govinda Karki addressed climate finance during a ministerial dialogue, calling for stronger global support to implement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).

Nepal’s non-governmental actors and media delegates also remained active throughout, engaging in pavilion events and side discussions with development partners.

In its closing remarks, Nepal underscored the existential threat posed by global warming to Himalayan ecosystems: “For Nepal, keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C is not just a number in an agreement—it is a matter of survival.”

Nepal welcomed the Mutirão decision, commitments to adaptation and loss and damage funding, and the new annual mountain dialogue. It also expressed gratitude to Brazil for its hospitality and congratulated Turkey and Australia for being selected to co-host COP31, and Ethiopia, the first LDC to host COP32.

Nepal expressed appreciation for the COP30 Presidency’s leadership in negotiating the mountain text. “As climate impacts intensify, the urgency to respond to the unique challenges faced by mountain regions is greater than ever,” Nepal said, while expressing hope that a formal agenda item on mountains could be secured in the future.

Despite limited numbers, Nepal maintained high internal coordination through regular meetings and media briefings. Dhakal said the quality of Nepal’s interventions, the unity among delegates, and strong collaboration with other mountainous nations were widely appreciated.

He added that Nepal’s mountain agenda is now “close to the establishment phase,” with further efforts needed in the lead-up to COP31 and SB64.

As COP30 concluded, Nepal’s delegation returned home preparing for a formal debrief. With COP31 set to be hosted jointly by Turkey and Australia, and COP32 by Ethiopia, Nepal aims to continue building momentum toward securing formal recognition and sustained support for mountain regions, one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable ecosystems.

In Dec 2023, COP28 held in Dubai passed an ambitious plan to dramatically cut the use of petrol, gas, and coal by 2050, expand the use of renewable energy, and bring fossil-fuel emissions down to net zero. A total of 198 countries signed the agreement.

However, shortly after signing, countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and India backtracked on their commitments, arguing that the continued use of fossil fuels was necessary to meet global energy needs.

The United States, which had played a crucial role in securing signatures during COP28, has shown little interest in the issue after Donald Trump returned to the presidency. Trump has labeled climate change “the biggest hoax in the world.”

This time, he did not send any official federal delegation to Belém. At Belém, more than 80 countries from Europe, Latin America, Asia, and Africa expressed the need for a clear roadmap to implement the COP28 commitments. But under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, countries like China, India, and Russia blocked progress on the agenda. As a result, the final agreement made no mention of fossil fuels at all.

International media also reported COP30 as a flop. “This year’s UN climate conference in Brazil had many unique aspects that could have been part of an historic outcome,” AP wrote adding, “The final decision announced Saturday, which included some tangible things like an increase in money to help developing nations adapt to climate change, was overall watered-down compared to many conferences in the past decade and fell far short of many delegates’ expectations. It didn’t mention the words ‘fossil fuels’, much less include a timeline to reduce their use.” 

Instead of being remembered as historic, the conference will likely further erode confidence in a process that many environmentalists and even some world leaders have argued isn’t up to the challenge of confronting global temperature rise, which is leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events like floods, storms and heat waves, it said.

Reuters said that Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had launched the summit calling for countries to agree on a ‘roadmap’ for advancing a COP28 pledge to shift away from fossil fuels.

“But it was a road to nowhere at this summit, as oil-rich Arab nations and others dependent on fossil fuels blocked any mention of the issue. Instead, the COP30 presidency created a voluntary plan that countries could sign on to—or not,” it wrote. “The result was similar to Egypt's COP27 and Azerbaijan’s COP29, where countries agreed to spend more money to address climate dangers while ignoring their primary cause.”

China is recalibrating its Nepal policy in the aftermath of the GenZ protests that caught Beijing off guard. The demonstrations and widespread arson—unprecedented in scale—forced several countries, including China, to urgently evacuate their officials and citizens from Nepal.

Since the protests, Nepal-China relations have noticeably slowed. While other major countries such as India, the US, Japan, and members of the European Union have already resumed full engagement with the new government at multiple levels, interaction between Nepal and China has remained limited.

In the early days of the unrest, Beijing was particularly concerned about its security interests in Nepal. The fall of the KP Sharma Oli-led government was a troubling development for China. Until the Sept 8–9 protests, bilateral ties were progressing steadily. Just beforehand, China had invited Oli to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting, where Nepal is a dialogue partner. Oli met President Xi Jinping on the sidelines, took part in China’s Victory Day parade, and earlier had signed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement during an official visit, an outcome that had energized Beijing’s engagement with Kathmandu. China was also preparing a five-year cooperation plan with Nepal and expanding support in agriculture, health, and other sectors. Its engagement with Nepali political parties, including the Nepali Congress, was also deepening.

The GenZ movement, however, appears to have triggered new anxieties in Beijing. Media reports alleging the involvement of Tibetan Original Blood (TOB) raised concerns about external influence. Some left-leaning political leaders further fueled this by suggesting geopolitical motives behind the protests. Additional reports that the government was considering appointing youth leaders allegedly close to the Dalai Lama heightened Beijing’s unease.

Compounding these tensions, the Sushila Karki-led transitional government decided to recall Nepal’s Ambassador to China, Krishna Prasad Oli, who is close to the dismissed prime minister Oli. It did not, however, recall the Ambassador to India, Shankar Sharma. China’s displeasure was evident: notably, the Chinese premier did not send a congratulatory message to Prime Minister Karki, an unprecedented break from diplomatic tradition.

Amid this uncertainty, China moved quickly to protect what it views as its security interests. Ambassador Chen Song raised concerns with top Nepali officials, including Prime Minister Karki and senior officials at the Foreign Ministry. They assured Beijing that the new government remains fully committed to the One-China policy, as previous governments had been.

Chinese officials were encouraged by support from Nepali political leaders, the public, and sections of the media who echoed China’s concerns. In a recent meeting with journalists, Ambassador Chen Song said: “The current government’s commitment to the One-China principle is not less than that of the previous government.”

With these assurances, Beijing’s immediate worries appear to have eased, though several Chinese delegations have since arrived in Nepal to assess the situation firsthand.

Regarding the GenZ movement and upcoming elections, Ambassador Chen has conveyed to Nepali leaders that China will not interfere in domestic political affairs and respects decisions made by the Nepali people. At the same time, Beijing has pledged support for Nepal’s reconstruction and electoral processes.

However, China does not appear optimistic about achieving tangible progress under the interim government, particularly on BRI-related initiatives. Although China continues to work on BRI projects from its side, meaningful progress remains unlikely. Many of the 10 selected projects are seen as unproductive, shaped largely by the political interests of major parties. Still, China’s growing engagement in Nepal’s health and education sectors is expected to continue.

The GenZ protests have also affected tourism cooperation. China had declared 2025 as Nepal Visit Year, but Chinese tourist numbers have sharply declined. Before the protests, the two countries were deepening collaboration on tourism promotion, but the political upheaval has significantly disrupted momentum, and officials expect a further drop in Chinese arrivals in the coming months.

For now, China’s approach appears to be maintaining a working relationship with the Karki administration, prioritising the protection of its core interests while keeping expectations low on broader bilateral progress.