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As the third quarterly review of the monetary policy draws near, all eyes are on the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). From government officials, business community members, and economists to ordinary citizens, people are looking at the central bank whether it will announce measures to bring down borrowing rates and ease margin lending and real estate financing. With the economy performing badly, the government wants NRB to move away from its 'conservative' stance in the third quarterly review of the monetary policy. Finance Minister Prakash Saran Mahat has been publicly speaking that he has asked the central bank to be cooperative with the issues faced by the private sector. The private sector has been urging the government to convince the NRB to be ‘liberal’. Finance Minister Mahat during the meeting to formulate revenue policy in Koshi province this week said that he was expecting liberal monetary policy from the central bank. “There is a need for liberal monetary policy. I have asked the leadership of Nepal Rastra Bank about it. I am waiting for the answer,” he said. The government is facing consistent pressure from the private sector to influence the central bank for lowering interest rates. Over the past one and a half years, the central bank has adopted a tighter monetary policy to address the high inflation and worsening external sector of the economy reflected in the ballooning balance of payment deficit and depleting foreign exchange reserves. “The much-needed monetary policy tightening helped stabilize the external position and lower inflation,” said the International Monetary Fund, in its assessment of Nepal’s economy after its Article IV observation mission in Nepal in February. According to NRB, the balance of payments remained at a surplus of Rs 148.11bn as of mid-March this fiscal year while foreign exchange reserves increased 15.2 percent to Rs 1,401.21bn in mid-March 2023 from Rs 1215.80bn in mid-July 2022. But inflation has been high at 7.44 percent in mid-March 2023, according to NRB. To support external stability and control inflation, the central bank raised the interest rate corridor in February 2022 and again in July and increased the cash reserve ratio in August, further raising lending rates. “Looking forward, a cautious and data-driven monetary policy stance supported by macroprudential measures will help avoid large boom-bust credit cycles, which can create financial sector instability and are not supportive of sustainable growth,” the IMF has advised. As the IMF is advising against the loose monetary policy, the central bank is unlikely to make a major shift in monetary policy despite the desire of the finance minister, according to NRB officials. A senior NRB official said that the main task of the central bank is to maintain financial stability in the country and to keep inflation at a manageable level. “The central bank cannot compromise on that as it is the mandated task by the NRB Act,” the official said. "A sudden U-turn on current policy could again destabilize the external sector. There is a limited scope of compromise on tighter monetary policy as long as inflation remains elevated." NRB Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari has also clearly hinted that a major shift in current policy is unlikely. “Those who are expecting much from the monetary policy should understand its limitations,” said Adhikari, speaking at the Business Summit-2023 organized by the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) this week. “The NRB will take private sector friendly policy within the boundary of monetary policy.” Given the diverse interests of the government and the central bank, there is the risk that the fiscal and monetary policy will take different directions further complicating matters for the already troubled economy of the country. The budget for the current fiscal year and monetary policy has moved in different directions with the government introducing an expansionary budget while the central bank introducing a tighter monetary policy. “We cannot expect fiscal and monetary policy to always go in the same direction, but it is important that a certain adjustment on both is necessary to take forward the economy without major upheavals,” the central bank official said.

With the Supreme Court scrapping the writ petition against the project development agreement (PDA) of the Upper Karnali Hydroelectric Project, the deck has been cleared for the Indian company GMR Energy to move ahead with the financial closure and power purchase agreement (PPA) of the 900 MW project. The constitutional bench comprising Acting Chief Justice Hari Krishna Karki, and justices Bishwombher Prasad Shrestha, Sapana Pradhan Malla, Ananda Mohan Bhattarai, and Tanka Bahadur Moktan on Sunday scrapped the writ filed by advocate Ratan Bhandari against the deadline extension given to the GMR. On July 15, 2022, the government decided to extend the deadline for GMR Energy to develop the Upper Karnali Hydroelectric Project, on the condition that the financial closure of the project is completed within two years. Before the cabinet decision, a high-level committee led by the then Vice Chairman of the National Planning Commission, Bishwa Poudel had recommended the deadline extension for the project. However, advocate Bhandari challenged the government's decision and filed a writ at the Supreme Court. The apex court in the first week of November 2022 stayed the government’s decision to extend the deadline for GMR Energy to complete the financial closure of the 900MW Upper Karnali Project, throwing the future of the project into uncertainty. A single bench of Justice Ishwar Prasad Khatiwada issued the interim order not to implement the government decision until the final verdict. Then, the government moved the court in mid-November seeking to vacate its November 3 interim order, arguing that GMR won’t be able to work towards financial closure. Responding to the government petition, justices Kumar Regmi and Til Prasad Shrestha on January 3, 2023, sent the dispute of Upper Karnali to the constitutional bench citing concerns of constitutional interpretation. With the constitutional bench finally scrapping the writ, GMR now can move ahead with the completion of the PPA and financial close for the project. The Supreme Court Spokesperson Bimal Poudel said that Sunday's decision has cleared the way for the developer (GMR) to proceed with the project development. "The full text of the verdict will be published soon," he said. The Investment Board Nepal (IBN) and GMR Energy signed the PDA on September 19, 2014. As per the PDA, the Indian company was supposed to complete the financial close within two years. But the deadline was extended further on January 8, 2017, by a year. On November 10, 2017, the Investment Board again extended the deadline by an additional year. Despite repeated deadline extensions, the Indian company has been struggling to conclude the financial closure of the project though some progress has been achieved in the purchase of power generated from the Upper Karnali Project. It is said that GMR's inability to move ahead with the project development is related to the contractor's high debt level and insolvency which has affected the company's power projects in India and elsewhere. In April 2017, Bangladesh signed a memorandum of understanding with India’s NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Limited (NVVN) to import electricity from the Upper Karnali HEP. Bangladesh has also issued a letter of intent to GMR expressing its interest to enter into a contract to purchase 500 MW of electricity from the Upper Karnali Project. During the meeting of the Joint Working Group and Joint Steering Committee on the energy between Nepal and Bangladesh in late August, it was notified that the Bangladesh Power Development Board, NVVN, and GMR were preparing to sign a trilateral power sales agreement. Following the scrapping of the writ, it is said that GMR officials will visit Nepal this week.  

The price of gold has increased by Rs 300 per tola in the domestic market on Tuesday. According to the Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers’ Association, the precious yellow metal is being traded at Rs 111, 200 per tola today. The gold was traded at Rs 110, 900 per tola on Sunday. Meanwhile, tejabi gold is being traded at Rs 110, 650 per tola. Similarly, the silver is being traded at Rs 1,445 per tola today.

Nepal has reiterated its political commitment to the International Monetary Fund that it would get the country’s 10 largest commercial banks audited by international auditing firms, a senior official of Nepal Rastra Bank said. Sending a joint letter to the IMF on April 10, Finance Minister Dr. Prakash Saran Mahat and Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari said that Nepal was committed to ensuring banks’ compliance with prudential requirements. “By the end of April 2024, we will launch in-depth on-site inspections for the largest 10 banks assisted by independent international third-party auditors,” they vowed in the joint letter. Under external auditing, there will be a review of loan portfolios in line with the new regulatory framework and paying special attention to loan and collateral valuation, evergreening, group borrowing, and concentration risks. “We will seek IMF support for the preparation of the terms of reference for the hiring of the third-party international audit firm and the design of the loan portfolio reviews, which we expect to complete by August 2024,” they said. “We will develop a plan to deal with the review’s findings, and any bank with capital shortfalls will be required to submit capital management plans setting out how they will return to full compliance with regulatory requirements.” “Only after Nepal made such a political commitment, the IMF approved the global monetary advisor on May 1 decided to release the second installment of Extended Credit Facility (ECF) worth about $52.8m as the second installment,” said a senior official of Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). Even though Nepal received about $110m as the first installment, the Washington-based organization had delayed the second installment stating that Nepal did not fulfill the conditions, especially due to its eight-month-long import ban since April 2022 on certain products amid its depleting foreign exchange reserves. “The banks whose auditing will be conducted by the external auditor will be determined after holding consultation with the IMF,” the NRB official said. Even though NRB has been reporting very low defaults of loans in Nepal’s banking system, the IMF is not convinced that defaults are as low as it has been reported. The concern is reflected in the press statement issued at the conclusion of the Article IV mission in late February.“Bank asset quality [in Nepal] has deteriorated, reflecting a decline in the repayment capacity of borrowers due to higher lending rates and rising leverage, a concern that is moderated by banks’ capital-adequacy ratios that are above the regulatory minima,” the IMF said in the statement. As per the IMF, discussions with central bank officials recognised the need for the central bank to ensure appropriate reclassification of loans and close monitoring of the impact of a potential deterioration in the repayment capacity of borrowers. “Prudent monitoring of the impact of unwinding pandemic-related support measures and deterioration in repayment capacity of borrowers on asset quality is critical,” the IMF said. “The NRB should ensure banks vigorously differentiate viable borrowers with temporary liquidity shortages from nonviable ones.” This, according to the IMF, will help the NRB to get a better overview of the health of the loan portfolio of Class A banks prior to launching loan portfolio reviews of the ten largest banks assisted by independent international auditors by end-April 2024. “The global monetary advisor is concerned whether loans were given to the right borrowers and whether there has been evergreening of the loans,” the central bank official said. The government and the central bank have admitted in the joint letter that non-performing loan (NPL) levels are still relatively low, and capital adequacy ratios are above the regulatory minimum, but concerns remain. “Pandemic-related support measures—including debt service moratoria, extension of grace periods and relaxations in provisioning levels and asset classification rules—provided important relief to the economy, and helped maintain relatively low NPL levels,” the government said in the letter. But, the NPLs increased from 1.3 percent in July 2022 to 2.6 percent as of January 2023, reflecting the decline in the repayment capacity of borrowers. “NPLs may increase further and we remain committed to prudently monitoring the banking sector to ensure that loans are appropriately classified, and that provisioning and capital remain adequate for all banks,” the letter states. “The envisaged amendments to the asset classification regulation will encourage banks to engage in restructuring of loans to firms that are viable but have temporary liquidity shortages.”