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The world is witnessing AI or high-tech warfare rather than traditional warfare, be it in Russia-Ukraine or Israel–Palestine conflict. A war that does not defend humanity and human civilization is a cold-hearted crime.

If the Israel-Palestine war is escalated for destabilizing the Middle East or shattering China-initiated Gulf unity, the outcome would be costlier than in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya.

Massive US funding on war in Ukraine and Israel could trigger divisions within alliances like the EU, apart from affecting the outcome of US election 2024 and impacting the Ukraine war. It would leave a stronger precedent on the Taiwan issue at a time when China is taking advantage of a waning US image for its global ambition. As the world is likely to be divided into two poles, every international conflict would ultimately end in Beijing-Washington negotiations, else slip into WW-III.  So, let’s invest in peace, not in war.

As China assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council and the Presidents of China and the US meet in San Francisco on the sidelines of APEC summit this month, the two superpowers are expected to take serious steps to bring the conflicting parties— Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine— into negotiating table for tangible outcomes.

As compliant partners and rational competitors, the two giants should work for the greater good of society, humankind and the universe, keeping in mind that they will be able to retain their prime positions only through decent leadership, equable and nimble rationality, amity and cooperation. 

Globalization and a corresponding drive toward neoliberalism had a role in shaping the global political order in the past. At present, the intricacy of ‘techno-geopolitics’ and ‘techno-nationalism’ is making a sway in digital, economic, social and democratic order thereby impelling a new global order.

‘Democracy’ is said to be in decline in many parts of the world, while its global state is ‘complex’, ‘fluid’ and ‘unequal’ in 2023 (Global State of Democracy Initiative). Considered to be a process rather than a “system” or any form of institution, democracy can come to a halt when it encounters critical threats from any actor— be it human or machine.

 “The human being ranks higher than machines and technology”, reads Article 12, Section 1 of the 1947 Constitution of Bremen, an entity of the German federal state, perhaps foreseeing the prospective supremacy of machines (AI) over humans. 

An Open Letter titled “Pause Giant AI Experiments” originally signed by a 1000-plus tech, social and AI leaders around the world on March 22, 2023 has garnered more than 33700 signatures, including that of this author. 

It reads, “Contemporary AI systems are now becoming human-competitive at general tasks, and we must ask ourselves: Should we let machines flood our information channels with propaganda and untruth? Should we automate away all the jobs, including the fulfilling ones? Should we develop nonhuman minds that might eventually outnumber, outsmart, obsolete and replace us? Should we risk the loss of control over our civilization? Such decisions must not be delegated to unelected tech leaders. Powerful AI systems should be developed only once we are confident that their effects will be positive and their risks manageable…” 

Unlawful development and deployment of generative AI has heightened risks of weaponization of AI technology to the detriment of humanity and human civilizations. The extensive misuse of AI has been posing a serious threat to democracy and humanity through ‘deep-fakes’ or ‘scams’.

After a Covid-19 pandemic that continues to haunt humanity, the world is witnessing two major threats—the “tech threat” that is challenging the sovereignty of nations, posing crucial threats to democracy and impinging on personal sovereign dignity of individuals; and the “religious radicalism” that could foment civilizational clashes and lead to disastrous consequences like ethnic cleansing. These two threats can sweep human civilization by wreaking havoc around the world.

Civilization clashes—be it Hindu-Muslim conflicts or the Manipur violence in India, Islam-Christian tensions around the world after 9/11, Black-White racial clashes in the US, the Rohingya sweeping in Myanmar, ethnic conflicts in Africa or Middle-East or ethnic clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh, the  diplomatic fiasco between India and Canada that is deep-rooted to religious radicalism or the recent Hamas attack in Israel and the Israeli counter-attack that are fuelling Muslim-Jews clashes—all reflect domination of religion over religion, culture over culture, human over human, nation over nation, and civilization over civilization. These developments could permeate beyond national boundaries and end up challenging the existing global social, civilizational or democratic order. 

Transnational issues such as terrorism, war, crimes, financial issues, climate change, economic stability, energy and food security, intellectual property rights, cybersecurity, nuclear and AI threats, maritime security, poverty and pandemics are also causing chaos worldwide.  

The author is a geopolitical analyst. This article is part 2 of a three-part series

The world is witnessing an AI or a high-tech war rather than just a traditional warfare—be it Russia-Ukraine war or Israel–Palestine conflict, while the conflicting parties have been massively ‘weaponizing technology’ and also undermining basic humanitarian laws. 

If the Israel-Palestine war, unfortunately, escalated over Iran or the Arab World with a shrewd intention of destabilizing the Mideast or disintegrating China initiated Gulf unity, the outcome would be more disappointing or costlier than that in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, or Libya in the past.

The massive US funding on the war in Ukraine and Israel, and possibly in Taiwan, instead of rationally investing on peace prospects, could not only induce divisions within the EU, NATO and other alliances, but could also affect the outcome of US election 2024 and impact the Russia-Ukraine war as well. 

Subsequently, it would leave a stronger precedent on the Taiwan issue. China, meanwhile, is widely garnering sustenance by taking advantage of a gradually waning US image, for its global political march. Against this backdrop, the world is most likely to be divided into two poles such that sooner or later every international conflict would ultimately end on Beijing-Washington negotiations, else slip into WWIII. Inviting a war is nothing but just an irrational competition on who would be stupider. Investing in war cannot be a wise ‘strategy’; instead, it is an ‘absurdity’. States, as responsible actors, should take steps for peace and harmony, and win hearts, minds and spirits of their nationals for maintaining a socio-democratic order.

The world is also observing a new version of Cold War centered on ‘democracy’ vs ‘autocracy’ in the form of tech and AI, data colonialism, data harvesting, cyber warfare, tech propaganda, intelligence sharing and spy-tech diplomacy, space race, maritime aggression, diplomatic maneuvering, interference in the internal affairs of states and unfair (and unilateral) tariffs or sanctions inconsistent with international laws. Consequently, global disorder is more disordered today. 

The induced “distrust and polarization of democracies” and disinformation from big tech and social media have been constantly challenging techno-democratic order, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict—that is largely marshaled by tech weaponries—is constantly fuelling for global disorder, and the Israel-Palestine conflict is likely to disunite the Arab World. The US, India and the UK as well as other influencing democracies such as Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa and South Korea are going to polls in 2024, while the challenges to ‘electoral democracy’ following the risk of disinformation or the influence of AI and ethnic nationalism cannot be undermined.

In the past, the West undermined Russian tech, cyber and nuclear capabilities, while the consequence was that the US frequently witnessed vulnerability in its cyber security and is now facing grave challenges to democracy from within and outside. The West is not accepting China’s AI strength and diplomatic clout, including its four initiatives—BRI, GDI, GSI, GCI—while the consequence is that the world is being gradually divided into two poles seeking alternative global orders. The West is also not accepting India’s promising tech and Space strength. This disregard could end up making India an alternative power in the global stage in the foreseeable future.

Nevertheless, all the three influencing powers—China, India and Russia—have had remarkable history cum civilization, grand legacy, abundance of resources, strong national power capability, great population, greater size, rapidly emerging economy, innovative technology and remarkable defense capability, which none of the reigning powers can undermine now. While China has been the strongest of the three due to its AI supremacy, strong defense capability, gamut of intelligence and wider clout on the global stage. India is logically stronger because of its national power capabilities, including “fertile population” or “demographic advantage”, followed by strategic ties with Russia, bulky economic undertakings with China and geostrategic alliance with the US. Russia has become much stronger due to its tactical nuclear capability followed by stronger bilateral and geostrategic ties with China, India and North Korea.

The author is a geopolitical analyst

This article is part 1 of a two-part series

With a conflict intensifying between Israel and Hamas after the recent Hamas attack, the Middle East, which was gradually heading toward unity and harmony, is plunging into a war, once again. Regardless of its root cause, the hostilities in the region can have a spillover effect, which can polarize the world. A conflict like this can also become a breeding ground for fresh rebellions, terrorists and criminal gangs.

No rational human being can support terrorism anywhere in the world. Talks and negotiations are a must to bring back normalcy in the region and beyond for the greater good of humanity and human civilization. War is never a solution. War begets more war and results in a lose-lose outcome. There is no alternative to peace and harmony. Thus, the international community in general and the parties to this conflict in particular should reconsider the “Framework for Peace in the Middle East”.

The author is a geostrategic thinker

The world is under two major threats now—“tech threat” that is challenging sovereignty of nations and impinging on personal sovereign dignity of individuals, and “Religious Radicalism” that could foment civilizational clashes and lead to ethnic cleansing.

A tech battle between China and the US, along with disinformation from big tech and social media have been challenging tech and democratic order. The US, India and the UK—the oldest democracy, largest democracy and the champion of parliamentary democracy—are going to polls in 2024 amid risk of disinformation or influence of AI and ethnic nationalism.

Civilizational clashes fueled by ethnic nationalism in different countries reflect domination of religion over religion, culture over culture, human over human and civilization over civilization. This can challenge social-civilizational or democratic order.

“Hate crimes” embedded in religious beliefs can have spillover effects and cause ethnic war, causing huge losses to civilization, if not handled with utmost rationality. 

The author is a geopolitical analyst 

The recent G7 foreign ministers’ meeting urged China to force Russia to end its war with Ukraine.  Neither China nor the US can handle the international crisis on its own. If China can play a role in ending this war, it can also play a role in the creation of a new global order not acceptable to the west.

Together, the US and China can play a role in tackling global crises, including the Russia-Ukraine war, using three measures—formation of ‘G2’ by adopting a 4Cs approach (consultation, communication, coordination and cooperation); G2 mediation between Russia and Ukraine for ending the conflict and leading the world and transformation of G7 into G10 by bringing China, India and Russia on board by securing Russia’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty. These measures reflecting a “new economic and political reality”can help create a new global order, apart from achieving ‘win-win results’ through fair competition.

The author is geopolitical analyst

India’s PM Narendra Modi, while addressing world leaders at the G20 meeting in New Delhi, frequently used the word ‘Bharat’ instead of ‘India’ and reiterated a 2,500-year history of his country in Sanskrit. 

The podium he was taking to welcome foreign delegates, too, was decked as ‘Bharat’, with a symbolic ‘Lotus’—Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s election symbol—displayed around the summit venue. The unprecedented branding of ‘Bharat’ along with ‘Hindu civilization’ could help set a nationalistic agenda for the ruling BJP in upcoming general elections. 

Latest developments like India’s emergence as a ‘Space power’, its soft tone at the recent BRICS summit, and successful execution of G20 Summit could result in a great strategic advantage to India to rise as a prominent power on the world stage. 

A moot question is: How will India balance ties with China, Russia, the US, and various multilateral associations, including QUAD, IPS and BRICS? 

The author is a geostrategic thinker 

With the novelty in tech and AI, the threat perceptions have also changed. Every tech power considers “tech sovereignty” as one of the key elements of national power capability, while China’s mantra of tech sovereignty lies within its goal of ‘Algorithmic Governance’, ‘Tech Supremacy’ and ‘Global Leadership in AI’ that it has targeted to attain by 2025 and 2030 respectively. China is said to be in the process to initiate the concept of “sovereign” internet, where “China possibly controls key technology supporting critical infrastructure in countries around the world” (VoA News). China’s prospect of ‘Digital Silk Road’—that includes expansion of digital capabilities through big data, IoT, and underwater technology—can also be a part in attaining tech sovereignty.  To achieve those goals, China has massively invested in AI, information and data security, economic and military edge, and producing engineers and AI experts. China produces more than 600,000 engineers annually (70 percent more than India) and has four times more AI experts and engineers than the US (RAND). Tech sector in China reportedly contributes to nearly 39 percent of GDP, while 80 percent of its GDP growth is determined by the application of technology.  Reportedly, China consumes about 40 percent of the total chips produced globally and controls more than 50 percent of global lithium ion production capacity, while it dominates nearly 93 percent of EU’s magnesium consumption. China controls more than 55 percent of global rare-earth mining. The rare-earth elements are used in various crucial technologies including manufacturing components in touch screens of smartphones, missile-defense systems, electric cars (and batteries), and renewable energy equipment (The Wall Street Journal). For China, ‘outer space and cyberspace have become new commanding heights of strategic competition’ between states, reads China’s Military Strategy 2015. The US, on the other hand, is an extant tech super power that is dominating the global order. Great power vs superpower China has become stronger economically, militarily and diplomatically on the world stage in recent years. China, politically a Marxist country, has been significantly benefiting from economic liberalism for the last 45 years. Chinese GDP is approximately $18.32trn, which is nearly 18.5 percent of the Global GDP (SIPRI Fact Sheet-2021). The second largest economy in the world, China also has a larger GDP than that of the third, fourth, fifth and sixth largest economy combined. It has been a great power for about 60 years, which boasts nearly 2.5m soldiers, which is one of the strongest military forces in the world (Military Direct). China has military expenditures of around $293.35bn, which is nearly 14 percent of the world’s total military spending ($2113bn) per year (Statista-2021). The Chinese defense budget, second only to the US, is again larger than that of the third, fourth, fifth and sixth largest economy combined. Besides its military might, China has also been engaged in soft power diplomacy, international cooperation, economic integration, development and economy under various initiatives including the BRI. China, however, is running into structural constraints such as “demographic crisis” in the long run, which is why it will be the decelerated-economy over the next two years, according to the projection of the IMF. China’s past “one child policy” has become a huge challenge to its foreign policy of the present. India, on the other hand, is leveraging the demographic constraints and expected to be the world’s fastest-growing economy over the next two years. The US, a long time “realist” country, has been a great power for more than 100 years and extant superpower for about 75 years. It has nearly 2m soldiers and a military expenditure of $801bn in a year. The US defense budget, which is nearly 38 percent of the world’s total military spending ($2113bn) (Statista-2021), is larger than that of the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh largest economy combined. Its GDP of more than $25.46trn is nearly 21 percent of the Global GDP (the US had dominated more than 35 percent of the global economy in terms of production at the end of WW-II). (IDDS-Institute for Defense and Disarmament Studies; World Arms Database; SIPRI Fact Sheet-2021). The American military possesses the world’s most advanced technology whereas its satellites used in military surveillance and mapping, and communications are said to be high enough to trace out even the tiny objects on the road. And, the tech sector in the US is contributing to nearly 12 percent of the US GDP. Despondently, the US, under the political cover of liberal idealism, is struggling to garner alliance support to counter China that is largely grounded on its long standing realist beliefs of power balance and dominance, argue analysts. History will, however, justify whether the US could have become a responsible global leader. From the above assessment, it can be estimated that the parallel growth competition between the US and China in all domains—economic, defense, technology and soft potentials—may have similar patterns for the years to come that would help emerge them as a bipolar force of Global politics, economy and technology. Yet, the one with sensible vision, cohesive mission, generous action, and trustful coalition would dominate the global order. However, we cannot predict the future of global politics and make assertions about China’s grand presence on the world stage or America’s gloomy decline, as world politics is quite complicated. But we can map the possibilities or trace the consequences based on inferences, data and facts. For now, we can say that China is indeed influencing global politics by being deterministically sensitive, conscious and responsible. Yet, “honesty” and “pragmatism” matter. The US, under the Trump administration, has dispensed with several multilateral associations and threatened to get out of several others, including pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Paris Climate Agreement and the nuclear missile accord with Russia, which resulted in heavy loss of the US credibility, reputation, reliability and trust from its allies. A few weeks ago, classified intelligence documents revealed that the US is reportedly engaged in spying not just its foes like Russia, North Korea and China, but also its important allies and friendly countries including South Korea, Israel, Ukraine, and the UAE. Numerous western media, including The New York Times, The Guardian and The Washington Post, stated that the disclosure of highly classified documents represents “a massive intelligence breach”, which complicated US relations with the concerned allied countries and raised mistrust on US reliability to maintain secretes, which could even jeopardize diplomatic ties with its allies. This could also make a significant impact on the Ukraine war, while it could be a “hole-in-the-wall” for its adversaries to change their strategies. Yet, the allegations are not verified officially by the concerned partners. The US has a very disappointing precedent of snooping on its allies, including Germany, in the past. It was revealed that the US has been involved in prying on the then German Chancellors Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande in 2013 and 2015, respectively (TIME). The US is gradually losing trust from its associates and could be isolated in the global political sphere in the long run, while China is sensibly expanding its presence, trust and integrity on the world stage. Had the US and its allies desperately wanted peace in Ukraine, perhaps, they would have accepted the peace deal proposed by China, and Washington would have begun peace talks along with Beijing. Arguably, the US neither wants “full scale war” nor “absolute peace” in Ukraine because it wants to leverage between the prospects of  “not war” (“no end of war”) and “not peace”. This is why the US has not been directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine war. Essentially, China is the first target for the US and Ukraine the second, while its another vital purpose is to weaken Russia by using Ukraine, argue analysts. As like the conflict and instability in Ukraine is more a security threat to the EU than Ukraine itself (from the European perspective), so is the security concern in Nepal (from Chinese and Indian perspectives). How India maintains its relations with its immediate neighbors, including China and Nepal, will determine whether India is also willing for parallel global leadership along with the Asian giant, China. At this instance, “Nepal is in a geostrategic chessboard” (author’s previous column), while if any of the three powers—the US, China and India—make a coercive move against Nepal, one or two of them—individually or together—would make a counter-move against the third one. In the foreseeable future, Nepal could be a most preferred player for the superpowers in the global geopolitical chess match. Yet, the crucial concern for Nepalis is whether Nepal is cautiously prepared to make a sensible move in the global geopolitical chessboard? Nepal should make a rational move such that it could “hedge” them strategically and heighten its credence in the international sphere by advancing its national interest. The US-China relations have been at a “historic low” since Nancy Pelosi, the then House Speaker, visited Taiwan on 2 Aug 2022, and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen met House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on 5 April 2023 in the US. On the other hand, China-Russia relations have been at their “highest point” following President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Kremlin. Since the US is currently dragged down into a tumult of domestic issues, and the chances of getting cooperation from its allies and friends are getting low, it may not directly involve Taiwan next. The US has still not maintained formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan since it broke the relations in 1979, while the US itself does not consider Taiwan as a sovereign country. The EU, after French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent remarks, perceives that “Sovereignty Variance” of Taiwan is dissimilar as that of Ukraine, while China considers Taiwan its inalienable territory. The Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang urged his German counterpart Annalena Baerbock, who recently visited Beijing, to support the reunification process of Taiwan with China. “China once supported Germany's unification cause and hopes Germany will also support China's great cause of peaceful reunification,” said top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi. In response to Wang’s remark, Baerbock said, “Germany understands the importance and sensitivity of the Taiwan question to China and reaffirmed that Germany would continue adhering to the one-China principle,” stated CGTN. Arguably, China is in a grand mission to garner international support for peaceful reunification of Taiwan with its mainland, besides its other undertakings. China could be successful in integrating Taiwan with the mainland, while Hong Kong would be far easier than Taiwan, argue some analysts. Following the integration of Taiwan and Hong Kong, China could be a new superpower on the world stage. Yet, being just a superpower is a hegemonic perception, while China is expected to be an accountable global leader with “amity and cooperation”. Amity and cooperation Despite intensified geopolitical friction between the two superpowers—the US and China—they also have deep economic ties; the US-China trade volume was said to be more than $690bn in 2022. They should be conscious regarding their rising and/or declining global credence and should not give any undue space to the others in waiting. They can preserve their greatness only through decent leadership. For this, they have to overcome their belligerent attitude toward each other, and need to be equipped with conviction, knowledge, intelligence, agility and ability to pursue each other instead of exuding coercive measures. The geopolitical reality of the present world politics is that both the US and China cannot downright contain, confront, or ignore each other, like it happened during the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union. The US-China negotiation should not (and must not) turn into a binary (0 or 1) “either war or capitulation axis”. Washington and Beijing must realize that both of their policies should not be practiced as if it’s an ON/OFF switch. Instead, they must bring the possibility of identifying several fractional possibilities lying between 0 and 1. The world’s two most responsible nations in modern history have to plan for those options with decent, equable, and nimble rationality.   Most importantly, they should start communication, cooperation and coordination with trust and reverence with a shared vision and pragmatism for a constructive and peaceful world. The great nations like the US and China should explore their greater spirit and bigger generosity for the greater good of society, humankind, and the Universe.