Development Diplomacy vs. Security and Sovereignty Concerns
Too many stars light up the Himalayan sky. The temptation to compare PM Balen Shah and Party Chairman Rabi Lamichhane with the pole star is great. But maybe it is early yet, though they are two sides of the same coin.
The Balen "craze" that created the Ballot-box Revolution in March this year has transformed into "aura-farming," despite disruption of parliamentary norms and traditions, though his Gen Z followers consider them as mere "deviations."
Balen has become bigger than his name, but he is his own man—but who knows, Rabi is the boss. Breaking his prolonged silence in parliament last Sunday (31 May), Balen stunned lawmakers by answering questions from them without a stitch of a note, stumbling only on the question of border dispute with India with the shocking revelation that "Nepal too has occupied Indian lands." He had stirred the hornet’s nest. Later, the Foreign Ministry jumped in for damage limitation, saying "it was in no-man’s land where rivers keep changing course." India’s Foreign Ministry chimed in, protesting Shah’s inclusion of UK in the dispute, saying it was bilateral issue.
In his first 100 days, Balen had pledged 100 goals—most are populist—with the 74th completed last week. An ambitious budget has elevated salaries of government employees and provided tax concessions. After only the 1960 and 1991 elections, the non-ideological Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) rules two seats short of a two-thirds majority, though it has no representation in the Upper House and the seven provinces. Further, the first year of Balen government is dedicated to "Good Governance, Accountability and Development"—Development-Diplomacy in short hand—precisely what the people have been demanding for the last three decades.
The urban and political elite and political opposition are not pleased with his style: not meeting people nor speaking to the media; changing through ordinance, composition and powers of constitutional councils; supersession of acting Chief Justice Sapna Pradhan Malla and other measures to depoliticize institutions, though the Supreme Court intervened to block the dissolution of trade unions and student organizations in universities. Balen has regulated diplomatic protocol smothered by the likes of former Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi, who used to invade Sheetal Niwas (President’s residence) and Baluwatar (PM’s residence). Lest we forget, behind the scenes is a third leader: the learned and articulate Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle.
In an interview to a newspaper, Balen’s political confidant, Bhupdev Shah, General Secretary of RSP, had said that PM Balen Shah would not undertake any visits to foreign countries in his first year, thereby preempting Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to Kathmandu scheduled for 11–12 May, when he was carrying an invitation from PM Narendra Modi for PM Balen Shah to visit India. Speculation was rife that Balen would not meet Misri, like he declined to meet President Trump’s Special Envoy to South and Central Asia and Ambassador to India, the Almighty Sergio Gor. Apparently, the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu verified the contents of the Bhupendra Shah interview before closing the issue.
Earlier, it was being said that Balen might attend United Nations General Assembly, New York, in September, and a visit to Delhi could be planned before or after that. Grapevine also suggested that India would be his first foreign port of call. Ending uncertainty, the Modi government discovered the perfect alternative to PM Shah: Party Chairman Rabi Lamichhane. It was godsent!
Here are reasons why Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suddenly invited Rabi even as the Misri episode had not died down. Delhi did not want Beijing to spring a surprise. For the first time, the party chair of the establishment in Kathmandu visited Delhi before its Prime Minister—the traditional norm. It was also the first time PM Modi went to his Party office to meet a foreign dignitary, Lamichhane. This has set a precedent; Indian political parties, mainly the Congress, have dealt with Nepali Congress or the Communists.
While RSP under Rabi made its political debut in 2021 with just 21 seats in Parliament, four years later, it rocketed to 182 seats, spurred by GenZ and Nepalese plagued with misgovernance: corruption. The arrival and rise of the non-baggage-carrying and non-ideological RSP is an accident of history, much to the relief of aspirational Nepal. It is this leadership that the BJP-led government is courting. One other crucial factor that prompted the invitation to Rabi is that, once he is cleared of court cases, he is the natural successor to Balen, who realizes that majority of the parliamentary party is with Rabi.
Much before Balen hit the spotlight as rapper and outspoken Mayor of Kathmandu, Rabi was a household name running the popular TV show, Sidha Kura Janta Sang. He raised RSP and became Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister. In short, for now, Balen is the lead engine and Rabi the double engine on the uphill track. The ownership of the mandate is Balen’s; keeping party unity and cohesion are with Rabi.
That’s how India’s Neighborhood First policy selected Rabi as the BJP’s First Leader from Nepal, and much was made of him in the two days he was in Delhi with band-baaja, et al., and meetings with Modi, Amit Shah, Ajit Doval, S. Jaishankar, and notably, Vikram Misri. Rabi’s arrival was synchronized with his signed Hindustan Times article that encapsulated aspirational Nepal’s wish-list, playing up Modi’s benchmark Nepal visit in 2014 and listing Kathmandu’s history of grievances. Former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattari and journalist Binod Dhakal responded differently to the article—Bhattarai noting India’s fixation with security of Himalayan frontiers and Dhakal emphasizing institutionalizing high-level diplomacy rather than relying on personal chemistry.
Modi’s statement on X was short and sharp, focused on elevating India’s "special and multifaceted relations to greater heights." Now the post-election diplomatic vacuum has been bridged. Party-to-party contact is done; G-to-G started with Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal arriving after Rabi left. And Rabi is one-up on Balen!
In 2014, Modi praised, in Nepal’s Parliament, its soldiers who spilled blood in India’s wars. Before his India’s visit, Rabi had met Indian Army Nepali veterans who urged him to help restore Gorkha recruitment—a strategic bonding stopped under the Agniveer scheme by previous governments. Interestingly, RSS was kept out of conversations given that its mouthpiece, Organiser, was skeptical about GenZ and critical of alleged US support for RSP. The Royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, demolished during the electoral avalanche, has split yet again. Former King Gyanendra has prophetically noted that monarchy is the last option if even the 182-seat government fails.
Notwithstanding stable governments and popular leaders in asymmetric Nepal and India, history has proven relationships are never constant but subject to snakes and ladders. Development diplomacy will likely clash with security and sovereignty concerns.
(Ashok K Mehta is a General officer [Retd] from Indian Army Gorkha Regiment who has known Nepal since 1959.)
