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Not trying to be a doomsayer, but with the US and India getting closer militarily against China, things are going to get bleaker for Nepal. And if we don’t get our house in order and our priorities straight, we run a risk of feeling the horrors of a superpower rivalry. Not because we are important, but because we are so unimportant and insignificant due to our poverty and weak military. That makes it a perfect proxy battleground for major powers.

Time has come to study the not-so-distant history of China’s role in the Cold War, the Soviet mistakes, the plight of Afghanistan, and how they all led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. There are lessons for us in Nepal too.

Let’s first look at the nature of the US-India defense cooperation: Weapons apart, one of the most important aspects of the recent US-India defense pact is information-sharing, under which India will have satellite images and other intelligence gathered by the US. Similarly, India will also get accurate GPS coordinates to target military installations in China, if things come to that. So, what's the big deal, you may ask? The big deal is that a real military alliance often starts with intelligence sharing because, information, as it was in history, is still a tool that decides the outcome of any war.

Intelligence-sharing between two friendly powers signals to the opponent that it now has to deal with the combined strength of the two (or more) powers and runs the risk of a two (or more) front war. China today finds itself in the position the Soviet Union did in the 1970s. Today’s India is what China was then, and China today is what the Soviet Union was for the US and China back then.

Let’s then look at the Sino-Soviet relations to better gauge what is in store for all powers—and for us.

The People’s Republic of China pursued the policy of yibian dao (“lean to one side”) immediately after its founding in 1949 and allied with the Soviet Union. But owing to various reasons the Sino-Soviet partnership started to crack and by the 60s they were sworn enemies. With the Soviet sympathizers in the Communist Party purged or killed or sent to reeducation camps during the Cultural Revolution, (1966-76) Chairman Mao faced no opposition in the party to get closer to the United States.

Soon, the two sides were openly talking and President Nixon’s China visit in 1972 led to the US-China strategic alliance against the Soviet Union. As expected, a major component of this alliance was modernization of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. The US began providing modern arms and technology to China, and China in turn allowed the US to maintain CIA posts in Xinjiang to gather intelligence against the Soviet Union. This kept both countries abreast of the Soviet military movements.

A slippery Soviet slope

This strategic alliance was what led to the eventual disintegration of the Soviet Union. The Soviets were now forced to deploy more forces along their borders with China. The cost of deploying troops in harsh weather conditions was not cheap, but the Soviets had no option. Similar to what China is faced with now.

The Soviets had to justify their rising military spending and prove they were not to be taken lightly and that they were not to remain quiet when an openly pro-Soviet regime in Kabul was threatened. The USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and the US—supported by China, among others—decided to get involved to give the Soviets their own Vietnam. Also, through its proxies—the various factions of the Afghan resistance, the Mujahedeen—the US mounted a formidable defense. The Soviets were forced to retreat and soon after the Soviet Union became history.

But how does what happened then apply to today’s Nepal, you may ask? And that’s a valid question.

First, China will have to deploy more troops along its rough and harsh borders with India, which is not going to be cheap.

China’s defense spending will have to increase because despite being a major military power it is years behind the US in military technology. China understands that the US is not a power to be taken lightly and it always has a new weapon or two in its arsenal that most have not even dreamed of or have only vague knowledge about. And it’s always safer and better to avoid a direct confrontation. But China will have to operate with the assumption that the US could get involved in its military confrontations with India and that China could be subjected to a multiple-front attack. And the military spending has to go further up.

Rising military spending with trade restrictions imposed by the US and its allies could lead to economic problems and it will find itself, like the Soviets, having to justify its military spending to its people, to prove its international standing. As it also wants to avert direct confrontation against India and the US, it will be forced to look for less risky battlegrounds in its neighborhood.

Nepal, the natural choice

Russia still dominates much of Central Asia, and China wouldn’t want to get involved there. South East Asia is a major economic powerhouse and it makes no sense to get involved there as well. Pakistan is a nuclear power and a sworn ally, therefore out of question. India is big and not as weak and now with the US as an ally isn’t to be touched. Afghanistan, with the presence of the US and NATO forces, isn’t a good option either. And other South Asian countries don’t share land borders with China. Naturally, in this case, Nepal appears to be the best choice to settle things with its opponents.

From the perspective of US-India alliance too, it makes sense to lure China in Nepal. India needs to find a way to end its rivalry with China or it would be faced with major economic consequences. The US too would have to find a way to work with China, lest other ‘rogue states’ side with China and create problems for it elsewhere.

Nepal, an ally of none and as such of no significance to any, is a poor economy with a weak military. Its political leaders have no long-term vision. Top party leaders are constantly embroiled in intra-party feuds concerning their positions on India or China. This presents a major strategic advantage to either the US-India alliance or China to wage a proxy war in Nepal. From the superpower perspective, it only makes sense. Not that they are waiting for it to happen but there’s nothing they can do to avoid it either.

Therefore let’s not be too optimistic and talk about peace and how India and China would settle their differences soon and all that.

The surge in Hindu and Han nationalisms in India and China respectively would make any amicable solution to their problems difficult, if not impossible. And things are unlikely to return to pre-Laddakh days soon. Both need to appear tough and now India, with the US by its side, is in no mood to back down, and for the Chinese inching back would signal weakness and the CCP doesn’t want to be portrayed as weak. Same with the Indian leadership. They would both be glad to take their fight elsewhere, and Nepal is the most convenient battleground both can hope for.

Revolutions and counter-revolutions

Maybe Nepal will witness revolutions supported by one of US-India or China and counter-revolutions by the other. And that is what is going to bring the superpower rivalry to us. Even if Nepal is totally destroyed, it’s not going to affect the world economy and security even a bit. One will instill its puppet regime and withdraw and the other would support the forces against the puppet regime, and that’s about it. The real fighting powers would have reached settlements and be in good terms with each other and as big powers they need to be in good terms—and a messed up Nepal then (just as it is now) will be no one’s immediate priority.

Maybe this is the reason Nepal has remained or been forced to remain weak—and constantly being reminded of how insignificant it really is. While others get billions in aid and FDI and weapons and choppers, all we get are old discarded weapons, field hospitals, buildings to teach languages to our soldiers, and just enough aid to survive.

So, yes, Nepal is important in unimportant ways and this country can be bombed right and left to settle scores elsewhere.

And who do we blame for this? Without a doubt all leaders who ruled us after King Mahendra. The king was no fan of non-alignment, although he paid lip service to it. He believed in pragmatic alignments— that he could be touring and meeting the US president a week before signing a major border treaty with China says a lot about his pragmatic alignment policy. But sadly no one after him followed his policy and years of mismanagement has made us a friend of none, and reduced our status to a battleground to test superpower strengths and settle their rivalries.

Let’s just hope people living off our tax money know the solution to this clear and present danger.

What is one of your weird quirks?
Monisha: I keep touching my hair.

Monika: I’d keep breaking my nails and could never grow them long enough.

Describe yourself in three words.

Monisha: Sweet, naïve, caring.

Monika: Optimistic, spontaneous, chill.

One fashion faux pas you have been guilty of committing?

Monisha: Wearing too much of everything.

Monika: Over-accessorizing, trying out everything at once.

Would you rather speak every language in the world or talk to animals?

Monisha: I would rather talk to animals and birds, especially marine creatures. It would be awesome to get to know more about them.

Monika: Both options are equally cool but talking to animals would be an amazing experience.

Who would you want to be stranded with on a deserted island?

Monisha: I’d enjoy strolling on the beach under the open sky, watching stars at night. I’d definitely like spending time in nature by myself, a free soul.

Monika: Chris Hemsworth.

If money was not a problem, what would you do all day?

Monisha: I think a world without money would be amazing.

Monika: See all the wonders of the world.

Have you ever tried something you are bad at?

Monisha: Singing. I am bad at it but I love singing.

Monika: Maybe acting.
If you could change one thing about your looks, what would it be?

Monisha: I love the way I am and I’ve never liked the idea of physical change through plastic surgery or the like.

Monika: I love every part of myself, but I sure want to be taller.

Online shopping or shopping at a store?

Monisha: Being a shopaholic, it’s definitely shopping in stores. There were times when we were broke but went window shopping and regretted when we found something we couldn’t buy.

Monika: Shopping in stores but during this pandemic, online shopping is better.

What is one styling advice you would give to others? 

Monisha: Following a trend isn’t a must. What you feel good while wearing defines your personality. You can still explore fashion and styling to find out what’s your thing.

Monika: Follow trends but at the same time being yourself is never out of style and way cooler.

It’s wrong to say former UML and Maoist factions remain intact in the ruling Nepal Communist Party. These old factions are in fact losing their salience as new ones develop. Right now, the tussle is between a faction under Prime Minister KP Oli and an emergent one of Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal. This was expected. The party has, as a whole, been copping the blame for PM Oli’s governance failure, be in corona-control, medical education reform, economic development, or implementation of federalism. 

Despite these failures, the party would still be more united were it not for PM Oli’s unilateral ways. For instance, he reshuffled the cabinet earlier this fortnight with little consultation with Dahal and Nepal, and once again packed vital ministries with his cronies. The appointment of Bishnu Poudel, someone implicated in a widely reported land scam, as the finance minister was galling. The new bone of contention is PM Oli’s diktat to provincial NCP parliamentarians for the removal of Karnali Province Chief Minister Mahendra Bahadur Shahi. The attempt was foiled when leaders Dahal and Nepal instructed the Karnali MPs close to them to reject the no-confidence motion tabled against Shahi. 

The prime minister’s direct orders to provincial MPs for Shahi’s removal belie the spirit of federalism. And it was another instance of PM Oli’s attempt to bend the party to his will. The latest ructions in the NCP, coming right on the eve of Dashain, again indicate the difficulties of a rather unnatural marriage between communism and democracy. The prime minister would like to run the NCP as a top-down communist party, but he cannot. This is because he shares party chairmanship with Dahal and internal democracy is enshrined in party charter. The prime minister’s alienation of senior party leaders and his failure to govern during a national medical emergency are not signs of a stable polity.

PM Oli’s repeated attempts to prolong his tenure not by the dint of his service to the country but through internal party machinations will be costly for Nepal. If nothing else, our government head will continue to be consumed with internal party dynamics when all his attention should be on tackling one of the biggest calamities the country has ever faced. 

Texting or talking?

Definitely talking. The emotions that are attached to our voices are important for proper communication.

Would you trade intelligence for looks or looks for intelligence?

- Without a doubt, looks for intelligence. Looks are temporary and subjective and can never surpass the power of intelligence.

Does your family have a spoken or unspoken “motto”?

- Unspoken but definitely: “Fortune favors the brave and the diligent.”

If you were ruler of your own country what would be the first law you would introduce?

Free education for all. I am a strong proponent of meritocracy and believe all children should have equal opportunities to learn and grow through a well-planned, non-reiterative, and practical educational system.

If you could join any past or present music group, which would it be?

I was a big fan of Guns N’ Roses during my high school days. I used to play guitar in high school bands. So I definitely would love to have been a part of this legendary group.

Who is the most intelligent person you know?

For me, intelligence is not just about business acumen. For me, an intelligent person is one with balanced life, in terms of family, ambition, and self. Many everyday people fall in this category and I aspire to be one as well.

If you had to describe yourself as an animal, which animal would you pick?

The lion has been my spirit animal from a very young age (Borderline obsession… haha). So definitely the majestic and powerful lion.

What's the craziest thing you’ve done in the name of love?

I must have done many crazy things in the name of love, but some things are better kept for yourself. 

What three items would you take with you on a deserted island?

I’m a practical guy, so I would have: A desalination device for water, a khukuri, and a flint.

If everyone in the world had to get married when they reached a certain age, what would that age be?

Marriage should always be a conscious and free-willed choice of the two individuals. So I think putting a number to it is futile as long as the couple are willing and have freely decided to tie the knot.

Most Nepalis will greet the country’s biggest festival that kicks off on Saturday, October 17, with a strange feeling. We have largely been holed up in our homes for well over eight months—and there is no respite in sight. True, the lockdown has been lifted. But that does not mean much when you are constantly reminded of the potentially deadly enemy by the ubiquitous masks and sanitizer bottles wherever you go. The whole family effectively quarantined for months, it’s also no holiday-time.  

If this was the end of the pandemic, perhaps half of us would immediately leave the country. People are dying for novelty of a foreign place and culture after the stultifying conformity they have had to endure for most of 2020. (Oh, what a dastardly year.) Those who can’t afford foreign holidays would leave for Nepal’s favored labor destinations to kick-start their migrant-worker careers. But, as things are, most of us won’t be venturing anywhere far.

Whether or not you mark it as a religious festival, Dashain has always been tantamount to fun. Visiting your ancestral home, eating and drinking, playing cards, bonding with loved ones—it’s the time you forget individual woes and take part in collective celebration. This year, things are different. Many have abandoned all celebration plans. Others are not venturing beyond their homes. Some say they will put ‘e-tika’.

And where’s the money to buy new clothes and appliances? Forget Dashain bonus, most working Nepalis are getting only a fraction of their salary, if at all. Hundreds of thousands have been laid off. Indeed, what is there to celebrate? And how can you celebrate when your friends and relatives are constantly falling sick and even dying from the pandemic?

But we human beings are strange. For the next fortnight, many of us will try to forget we are in the middle of a raging pandemic. We will pretend Durga Mata will look after our health and wellbeing. And we will eat and drink like there is no tomorrow, if only to drown our sorrow. APEX has absolutely no problem with your personal celebration. Just make sure your actions don’t harm others. Stay home. Stay safe. Wait for a better tomorrow. It will come.  

Do you love working from home or would you rather be in office?

As my work requires being on set always, working from home isn’t an option. Would never be either. I’d want to spend my days and nights at my workplace.

The zombie apocalypse is coming, who are three people you want on your team?

My mother. One among my four mentors. My lover.

If you could be on a reality TV show, which one would you choose?

It would’ve been Big Boss if it came to Nepal. Cause I LOVE DRAMA. Haha.

One theatrical production that you’d love to play lead in?

A Doll’s House. I’ve loved it since I read it for the first time in high school.

The most inspiring person for you in the Nepali entertainment industry? 

Najir Hussain inspires me in multiple ways.

If you could eliminate one thing from your daily routine, what would it be?

Does getting out of bed in the morning count? Haha. Actually, removing make-up before bed. Even though it’s only sunscreen and powder mostly, I’m just too lazy. I wish somebody else did that for me.

Big Party or small gathering?

Small gathering over everything else. Always!

What fictional family would you be a member of?

The Targaryens from Game of Thrones. I’d want to be an aunt to the Dragons.

Have you ever been told you look like someone famous? Who was it?

Mithila Palkar. I don’t think that’s very true though.

If you could instantly become an expert in something, what would it be?

Acting.

Confusion reigns supreme as people debate whether to celebrate the upcoming Dashain amid a raging corona pandemic. The number of daily reported cases is steadily climbing, with a record 4,364 cases reported on Oct 8. It’s hard to find a person whose close friend or relative has not been infected, suggesting widespread prevalence of Covid-19, over and beyond official numbers. Hospital ICUs are chock-a-block with covid-positive patients, and they are urging all but critical patients to self-isolate. The biggest Hindu festival just over a week away, people are looking forward to it with foreboding. Putting tika while clad in a mask and at a safe distance from your nearest ones isn’t exactly the Dashain spirit. 

Many are already resigned to their fate, as they think it is only a matter of time before they too have the virus—if they don’t already. They thus shun masks and mingle freely. Youths are particularly blasé. The problem is that we know little about the virus nearly a year since its first appearance in China. What little findings there have been in fact suggest long-term health effects even among the youth. This follows an old pattern. During the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic too, the first wave was relatively mild and mostly affected the infirm and elderly. But soon the virus had morphed and came to hit the youth the hardest. There is a risk of a new and more deadly spurt of the virus this winter. 

Thankfully, testing has increased, with nearly 20,000 people now being tested daily—one reason for the higher number of infections. Yet even this is inadequate. If the country is to have any hope of controlling the spread of the virus and preventing its worst consequences, around 100,000 will have to be tested (or retested) every day. Another good news is that self-testing is increasing and those who have discovered on their own are isolating in their homes. Doctors are available for consultations over the phone. Folks are also deriving some comfort by sharing their stories on social media. It’s becoming clear that Nepal will have to work out its own formula to deal with this scourge. But will that be enough? 

One piece of equipment that has long been on your wish-list?
 As of now, it would be an HD optic macro lens for my phone.

If you could go anywhere in the world where would it be and why?
Actually I was planning to go on a road trip to Ladakh with my wife before the pandemic hit. When everything is over, that’s where we will be going to recharge ourselves.

What is your dream job?
‘Lights, camera, action’ has always been my dream job and I am fortunate I get to do what I love.

Are you a morning or a night person?
Definitely a night person. Most of my work-related ideas and concepts are drafted at midnight.
 

Three favorite artists to work with for music videos?
Every professional artist but to take names, it would be—Reema Biswokarma, Alisha Rai and, Nirajan Pradhan.

If you ever make a movie, what genre would it be?
Romance.
 

Say you’re filthy-rich already and don’t have to work, what would you do with your time?
I don’t think I can stay without working.
 

If you could choose two famous Nepali folks to have dinner with, who would they be?
With utmost respect, Kulman Ghising and Mahabir Pun. They are an inspiration for every Nepali citizen.
 

Would you rather give up your smartphone or your computer?
I can never imagine going to the bathroom without my phone. So I will give up my computer.
 

If you could instantly become an expert in something, what would it be at?
I’d wish to be a great dancer and rapper.