As vote counting for the March 5 election continues across the country, there are clear indications that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), led by Rabi Lamichhane and politically nurtured by former Kathmandu Metropolitan City Mayor Balendra Shah, is heading toward a single-party majority.
Vote counting is underway in more than 60 constituencies, and RSP candidates are leading by large margins over candidates from the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML, and other parties in 50 seats. In Jhapa-5, Balendra Shah is leading over KP Sharma Oli by more than three thousand votes. Among other top leaders, Nepal Communist Party Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is leading in Rukum-West, a Maoist heartland.
The RSP, which emerged as the fourth-largest party in the 2022 national elections, gained significant popularity after naming Balendra Shah as its senior leader and prime ministerial candidate. When Shah traveled across the country during the campaign, thousands of young people turned out to welcome him.
In recent weeks, local media reports had already suggested that the RSP was likely to perform strongly, posing a serious challenge to the Nepali Congress and other traditional political parties. A large section of the public had grown increasingly frustrated with established parties due to corruption, governance failures, lack of job creation, and their inability to address the everyday concerns of ordinary citizens.
At the same time, many grassroots members of major parties were dissatisfied, believing that a small group of leaders had captured party structures from the top down. The Gen Z protests of September 8–9, during which 76 people—including 19 students—were killed, further damaged the credibility of traditional political forces.
Even after the Gen Z movement, most major parties failed to reform their leadership, with the partial exception of the Nepali Congress. However, despite changing its leadership, the NC also struggled to regain the attention and trust of voters.
Ordinary citizens are now expecting improved governance, stronger action against corruption, job creation, and better public service delivery. The prevailing sentiment among many voters is clear: traditional political parties were given opportunities for more than four decades, yet failed to deliver meaningful change. As a result, many people now prefer to give newer political forces a chance.
