It seems like the GenZ protests of Sept 8-9 happened a long time ago, but the effects they caused in our nation’s foundation remain. As Nepal gears toward the general election, we find ourselves in a fragile normalcy. While the immediate crisis—the collapse of the Oli-Deuba coalition, which held a nearly two-thirds majority, and the tragic loss of citizens’ lives is behind us—the real danger is only just beginning.
For decades, politicians have defined national security solely through the lens of sovereignty, limiting it to borders and geopolitics. Often, the public conversation is about the threat of foreign interference and balancing India and China. But the events of September have laid bare a harsh truth: Nepal’s most potent national security threat is not external aggression, but internal institutional decay.
The broken social contract
Under the social contract, and indeed under our own Constitution, the state’s primary obligation is the protection of the life and liberty of its citizens. On Sept 8 and 9, the Nepali state did not just fail operationally; it abdicated its constitutional duty. The security apparatus collapsed under the weight of the people’s rage.
The intensity of the protests was not a sudden event; it was a whole political climate developed over the years that resulted in it. As our intelligence agencies failed to assess the situation, in the resulting chaos the security forces used excessive force. This resulted in the largest single-day killing in the history of Nepali protests, which was followed by widespread destruction of public and private property the next day. As the government, including the security apparatus, failed to secure the safety of its citizens and protect their property, it has undermined its moral authority as well as cast doubt on the capacity of the Nepali State.
This failure has inflicted deep psychological scars on the nation. The immediate economic fallout is visible, but the long-term cost will be invisible and devastating: a quiet exodus of capital. If the state cannot guarantee the safety of assets, the desire for holding assets abroad will become irresistible. We are staring at a future where people are not just leaving the nation for a better future abroad but also parking wealth abroad, leaving behind a prospect of an economy unable to fund its own development.
Therefore, it is imperative that the nation undertake major reforms in three critical spheres: security, institutions, and the economy.
Overhauling security agencies
This catastrophe was manufactured by years of politicization. The Nepal Police, which should be the bedrock of law and order, has been reduced to a political tool. Transfers, promotions, and postings are guided not by merit or security needs, but by proximity to power centers. When officers look to party headquarters for orders rather than their chain of command, the result is paralysis. Equally alarming is the failure of our intelligence mechanisms. The anger was clear in digital spaces and on the streets. Yet, the intelligence apparatus failed to anticipate the scale of the rage.
The immediate task for the government formed post-general election should be to radically overhaul the law enforcement agency and the information gathering mechanism, specially removing political interference and rebuilding them on professionalism and capability.
Army: A force for the future
Amidst the civilian institution’s collapse, the Nepali Army stood as the only functioning pillar, helping to restore normalcy, in the difficult time. However, resting on this success would be a strategic mistake.
As the global security landscape is shifting and we are entering an era of cheap drone warfare, cyber-attacks, information operations, the Nepali Army must rapidly modernize to build itself to meet the challenges of the future. This means investing in cyber security and understanding the threats of modern technology.
With the return of the realist politics and increasing willingness to use force unilaterally by the global power reflect a challenging global environment. To remain a force of capability and trust, the army must also strengthen its internal research capabilities, including investing in internal think-tanks and research agencies that can anticipate and prepare for future challenges.
Economic reform as security strategy
It is time to recognize that unemployment has ceased to be just an economic statistic, it is a critical national security challenge. When the state fails to create an environment for growth, it creates an environment for unrest. The mass migration of our youth is a direct result of this failure.
To fix this, we need systematic deregulation to tear down the barriers that stifle business. We must unlock internal economic growth not just to create wealth, but to create stability. If we do not treat job creation as a security priority, the anger on the streets will never truly subside.
Rot in the bureaucracy
Perhaps the biggest security challenge lies in our civilian institutions. The bureaucracy, constitutional commissions and judiciary have stopped functioning as checks and balances. Instead, they often act as partisan cadres. When the judiciary is seen as biased and the bureaucracy as an obstacle, people’s frustration spills onto the streets.
The collapse of the coalition government happened because these State institutions failed to address public grievances. Reforming these bodies is no longer just about ‘good governance’ agenda but a vital national security necessity. A corrupt bureaucracy is a national security risk because it erodes the state’s legitimacy as seen in last September where all civilian institutions collapsed within a matter of two days.
Conclusion
As we head toward the general election, we must not mistake silence for stability. True national security will only come from deep structural reform. We need a police force that serves the law, an intelligence agency that sees the truth, and civilian institutions that are loyal to the constitution rather than a political party, and an overall state mechanism that inspires hope and prosperity.
The September shock was a warning. If we do not heed it and fix our state architecture, the next crisis, and potentially deeper, is inevitable.
The author is a lawyer and strategic advisor based in Kathmandu. He runs an organization called ‘Robin Law and Policy Associates’
