Ahead of the crucial March 5 elections, Nepal’s largest political party, the Nepali Congress (NC), has plunged into a deep internal crisis following a formal split. The rupture has thrown the electoral process into uncertainty and exposed a widening generational divide within the party. Two rival factions—one led by party president Sher Bahadur Deuba and the other by General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa—are now locked in a legal and constitutional battle for legitimacy. Gagan Thapa is 49 years old, while the current party president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, is nearing 80.
The establishment faction has expelled Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, accusing them of organizing a special convention in violation of the party statute. In response, the Thapa-led faction has claimed overwhelming support within the party, asserting that it commands the backing of nearly 67 percent of the General Convention representatives. The faction has already elected a new Central Working Committee (CWC) through the convention and submitted its updated documentation to the Election Commission (EC), seeking official recognition.
The immediate authority to decide the party’s legitimacy lies with the Election Commission, which will examine the submitted documents and consult both factions. However, any party dissatisfied with the EC’s decision is almost certain to challenge it at the Supreme Court (SC), making the judiciary the ultimate arbiter. This legal uncertainty has placed the party—and the broader electoral process—in a precarious position.
At the heart of the split lies a generational conflict sharpened by the GenZ–led youth movement of Sept 8–9. Young leaders had demanded swift leadership change, greater internal democracy, and ownership of the reform agenda raised by youth activists. Instead of accommodating these demands, senior leaders who are above 70 years consolidated control, rejecting calls for a special convention despite provisions in the party statute. The refusal ultimately triggered the breakaway led by Thapa, symbolizing a broader struggle between reformist youth leaders and the party’s old guard.
The timing of the split is very meaningful. Candidate nominations under the Proportional Representation (PR) system have already been finalized and cannot be altered unless the entire electoral process is cancelled. Meanwhile, the deadline for nominations under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system is just six days away, leaving the NC with only a narrow window to resolve its internal dispute and finalize candidates. Given the legal and constitutional complexities involved, it appears highly unlikely that the matter can be settled within the next four to five days.
If the dispute remains unresolved, both factions are expected to proceed independently, each claiming to be the legitimate Nepali Congress. This raises serious questions: Which faction will the EC recognize for electoral purposes? Can the EC and the government proceed with elections without the participation of the country’s largest party? Or will the election calendar have to be revised?
The EC is constrained by time. With less than 50 days remaining before the scheduled polls, extending deadlines or granting additional time may not be feasible. While elections could theoretically be postponed to April or May, such a move could invite constitutional challenges, as the current government is mandated to hold elections within six months of its formation.
If elections proceed as scheduled amid this chaos, the Nepali Congress is likely to suffer significant electoral damage.
