The prospect of the March 5 elections has slightly improved. The CPN-UML, which had long emphasized parliament restoration over elections, has now registered its party for electoral purposes, sending a positive signal across the political landscape.
At the same time, however, UML has filed a writ at the Supreme Court demanding the restoration of parliament. This move is unusual, as the party itself is petitioning the court. The Supreme Court has already received more than a dozen writs calling for the restoration of parliament.
Yet questions remain about whether UML will fully commit to the elections, as it continues raising concerns about the constitutionality of the government. UML’s decision was influenced by the Nepali Congress’ announcement that it would participate in the polls. Other fringe parties had already begun preparations. At this point, very few parties openly oppose holding elections.
Although the countdown to March 5 has begun, major parties have not clarified their positions on potential electoral alliances. Since 2017, alliances have become the norm in Nepali politics. Madhes-based parties and newer fringe groups are already exploring alliances, but major parties remain conspicuously silent.
Compounding this uncertainty, there have been no recent meetings among major political leaders. The animosity between UML and Nepali Communist Party coordinator Pushpa Kamal Dahal continues. Oli has publicly accused Dahal of engineering the Sept 8–9 protests, while Dahal blames Oli’s governance failures for the unrest.
Meanwhile, the number of political parties preparing to participate in the polls is likely to increase substantially. The GenZ movement has spawned numerous new parties. The number of parties registered at the Election Commission for election purposes has already reached 106, up from 82 in the previous election.
With the EC extending the registration deadline by four days, the count is expected to grow further. As of Nov 27, the total number of registered political parties stands at 137. If more of these parties win seats, the new parliament could become even more fractured, increasing the risk of political instability.
On the logistical front, both the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Election Commission are preparing intensively for the March 5 polls. The National Security Council has recommended mobilizing the Nepal Army for election security, and the government has begun recruiting temporary police. For election logistics, the government is planning vehicle purchases, while India and China have pledged additional support.
New parties formed after the GenZ movement are also exploring alliances aimed at challenging traditional forces. Some are even considering unification. The Rastriya Swatantra Party has already decided to merge with the Bibeksheel Party and is reaching out to other “alternative forces.”
Inside the UML, a new development is unfolding. Senior leader Ishwar Pokhrel has announced he will challenge KP Sharma Oli for the party leadership at the upcoming general convention on Dec 13–14. Although Oli retains strong control within the party, many leaders are pressuring him to step aside. Pokhrel is widely viewed as a proxy for former President Bidya Devi Bhandari. Fearing monopolization of the selection of convention representatives, Bhandari has urged the Oli faction to adopt a balanced approach.
The intra-party conflict in the Nepali Congress is also intensifying. One faction insists on holding a special convention to elect new leadership, while the establishment faction argues that, with elections only 100 days away, such a convention is impossible. There are growing fears of a potential split, though it remains unlikely. General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has publicly declared that the party will not contest the elections under Deuba’s leadership.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, meanwhile, continues to welcome splinter groups from other parties. On Nov 27, four groups from various parties joined the Nepali Communist Party. As election day nears, politicians from smaller groups are increasingly joining larger parties in search of tickets and better prospects. Dahal is portraying this as “a major unification of the communist forces.”
The commission led by Gauri Bahadur Karki, tasked with investigating the Sept 8–9 protests, is facing challenges handling high-profile political figures. Oli has openly questioned the commission’s legitimacy and repeatedly said he will not cooperate. The Nepal Army has responded to written queries but declined to appear in person. With only a three-month mandate, and limited cooperation, completing the investigation on time appears difficult.
As the commission proceeds, Nepal Police have arrested around 515 individuals on charges of arson and vandalism during the GenZ movement. Cases have been filed against 267 of them. Although Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal was initially against mass arrests, police pressure led to action. Meanwhile, 9,697 inmates who escaped during the movement remain at large.
While tensions between the government and political parties have eased somewhat, friction between GenZ groups and the government is rising. Some GenZ groups have protested appointments in Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s cabinet. The government is working to sign an agreement with GenZ groups to legitimize the September protests, but political parties have not been consulted. GenZ groups are pushing for a quick agreement to avoid potential prosecution by a new post-election government.
Most members of the international community appear supportive of holding elections on March 5. They view the polls as essential for putting the country back on the constitutional track. Two senior diplomats I spoke with this week said they are encouraging both the government and political parties not to postpone the elections, warning that any delay could create further uncertainty in Nepal.
